The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008

They are online with their social networks

Theme Social networks will be like air.

Components of social networks Profile Relationships Activities Business model Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value

Profile

Relationships

Activities

Business model

My multiple identities

Universal identity [email_address] [email_address] Mobile number

[email_address]

[email_address]

Mobile number

Universal identity foundations Federation (OpenID approach) A few major players will serve as major federation focal points Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together Data Portability Group is the beginning

Federation (OpenID approach)

A few major players will serve as major federation focal points

Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.

All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together

Data Portability Group is the beginning

Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web “ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: Ownership of their own personal information, including: their own profile data the list of people they are connected to the activity stream of content they create; Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” - Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web

“ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:

Ownership of their own personal information, including:

their own profile data

the list of people they are connected to

the activity stream of content they create;

Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and

Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”

- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington

http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web

My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group

My real social graph is much more complex

Let’s end the insanity

Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo

New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps

Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based

What people do today on social networks

Dave has a nice book review on Facebook

But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”

How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere

The under-rated value of networks

Endorsement value depends on your network Your authority on the specific topic Your network’s interest and authority on the topic The trust level among your network on the topic

Your authority on the specific topic

Your network’s interest and authority on the topic

The trust level among your network on the topic

The future business model for social networks Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals * From Marian Salzman, JWT

Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable

Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*

Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals

Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks

Recommendations Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in Develop social applications that have meaning Integrate social networks into existing activities Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks

Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation

Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in

Develop social applications that have meaning

Integrate social networks into existing activities

Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks

Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com