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Lecture Welcome Decision Support Systems
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  • 1. Decision Support Systems Deliverer: Dr Les Ball
  • 2. What’s the module about and not about?
    • ABOUT, finding IT solutions
      • To facilitate and support the decision making process
      • So they feed into the human decision process too
    • NOT about machines making decisions
      • This is far, far too dangerous
      • As they are not as good as us!!!!!
    • Not about databases, though they are one mechanism that can feed the process
    • We are at a deeper and more abstract level of thinking
  • 3. Learning Outcomes
    • Critically examine knowledge engineering techniques and reasoning strategies for organisational decision making.
    • Analyse the cognitive decision making processes.
    • Critically asses the "support" aspect of a Decision Support System.
  • 4. SA1053a
    • Delivery
      • Lectures, labs, tutorials
    • Labs
      • Use different types of software to illustrate ideas behind decision making processes
    • Assessment
      • Exam 50% (To be decided – probably May)
      • Case Study 50%
    • Supporting Material
      • http:// www.prenhall.com/marakas
      • Marakas , G. M. (2003) DSS in the 21 st Century (2 nd Ed.)
        • Quite expensive
  • 5. Rough Lecture Schedule
    • Lectures
      • Start with directed reading
      • Invited speaker to give you the cognitive context of decision making
      • Will follow Marakas textbook closely on certain topics
    • Topics will include ………..
      • Decision modelling
      • Group decision making
      • Knowledge acquisition and elicitation
      • Data mining and machine learning
      • Artificial intelligence
  • 6. Lab work
    • Game playing to offer insights into your cognitive thinking, attitude and self perception
    • Practical experience of using DSS software
      • Not commercial!
    • But also the ability to think deeper about how decision processes and structures
    • We shall use 3 very different approaches
      • To brainstorm idea
      • To structure a decision in terms of processes
      • To structure a decision in terms of rules
  • 7. Assessment – the examination
    • Examination (50%)
      • Could be on any topic presented from the set textbook
      • Those who read around will obviously be much more primed
      • We can look at last year’s paper maybe
      • We can have revision sessions late in term
      • As 4 th year students you are expected to take charge of your learning much more than last year
      • So the lectures and directed reading are only pointers to topics which you should research more widely
  • 8. Assessment – the Practical
    • Will be based around the lab experiences you receive
    • You will need to develop your expertise into areas of your choice (probably!)
    • Some of the work will be group driven
      • As part of the module is to se how you go about consensus etc in groups
    • I must stress that working together is therefore important
    • However you will be assessed individually for the most part
    • Attendance WILL therefore necessarily feed directly into your grade for this assessment
  • 9. A bit about the software
    • DECISION EXPLORER
      • A brainstorming tool to map decisions and consequences
    • JUNIPER
      • A research tool to map decision processes hierarchically
    • RESOLVER
      • A decision tree tool to structure rules
  • 10. What do I expect?
    • Of you?
      • To be self led
      • Independent learner
      • Inquisitive
      • Enjoy
      • Go to a deeper level of enquiry
  • 11. First week Directed Reading
    • The paper you have is a seminal work by two of the most acknowledged authors in the field
      • Kahneman and Tversky
      • Should be a challenge and whet your appetite for this kind of module – see what you think of it.
    • Marakas Chapters 1 & 3
    • Remember the website has slide presentations on each chapter
      • http:// www.prenhall.com/marakas
      • Chapter 1 covers the Introduction to Decision Support Systems
      • Chapter 3 covers decision making in the organisation
  • 12. So…….
    • What is the likelihood that it will rain today?
    • What are the processes you think you will need to go through to get the degree classification you are chasing?
    • If the fire alarm suddenly goes off during this lecture what are the possible outcomes?
    • Which investment strategy should I undertake?