Lecture Welcome Decision Support Systems


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Lecture Welcome Decision Support Systems

  1. 1. Decision Support Systems Deliverer: Dr Les Ball
  2. 2. What’s the module about and not about? <ul><li>ABOUT, finding IT solutions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To facilitate and support the decision making process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So they feed into the human decision process too </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NOT about machines making decisions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is far, far too dangerous </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As they are not as good as us!!!!! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not about databases, though they are one mechanism that can feed the process </li></ul><ul><li>We are at a deeper and more abstract level of thinking </li></ul>
  3. 3. Learning Outcomes <ul><li>Critically examine knowledge engineering techniques and reasoning strategies for organisational decision making. </li></ul><ul><li>Analyse the cognitive decision making processes. </li></ul><ul><li>Critically asses the &quot;support&quot; aspect of a Decision Support System. </li></ul>
  4. 4. SA1053a <ul><li>Delivery </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lectures, labs, tutorials </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Labs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Use different types of software to illustrate ideas behind decision making processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exam 50% (To be decided – probably May) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Case Study 50% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Supporting Material </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http:// www.prenhall.com/marakas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marakas , G. M. (2003) DSS in the 21 st Century (2 nd Ed.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Quite expensive </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Rough Lecture Schedule <ul><li>Lectures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start with directed reading </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invited speaker to give you the cognitive context of decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will follow Marakas textbook closely on certain topics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Topics will include ……….. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision modelling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Group decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge acquisition and elicitation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data mining and machine learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Artificial intelligence </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Lab work <ul><li>Game playing to offer insights into your cognitive thinking, attitude and self perception </li></ul><ul><li>Practical experience of using DSS software </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not commercial! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But also the ability to think deeper about how decision processes and structures </li></ul><ul><li>We shall use 3 very different approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To brainstorm idea </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To structure a decision in terms of processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To structure a decision in terms of rules </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Assessment – the examination <ul><li>Examination (50%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Could be on any topic presented from the set textbook </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Those who read around will obviously be much more primed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We can look at last year’s paper maybe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We can have revision sessions late in term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As 4 th year students you are expected to take charge of your learning much more than last year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>So the lectures and directed reading are only pointers to topics which you should research more widely </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Assessment – the Practical <ul><li>Will be based around the lab experiences you receive </li></ul><ul><li>You will need to develop your expertise into areas of your choice (probably!) </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the work will be group driven </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As part of the module is to se how you go about consensus etc in groups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I must stress that working together is therefore important </li></ul><ul><li>However you will be assessed individually for the most part </li></ul><ul><li>Attendance WILL therefore necessarily feed directly into your grade for this assessment </li></ul>
  9. 9. A bit about the software <ul><li>DECISION EXPLORER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A brainstorming tool to map decisions and consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><li>JUNIPER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A research tool to map decision processes hierarchically </li></ul></ul><ul><li>RESOLVER </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A decision tree tool to structure rules </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. What do I expect? <ul><li>Of you? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To be self led </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Independent learner </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inquisitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enjoy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Go to a deeper level of enquiry </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. First week Directed Reading <ul><li>The paper you have is a seminal work by two of the most acknowledged authors in the field </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kahneman and Tversky </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Should be a challenge and whet your appetite for this kind of module – see what you think of it. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Marakas Chapters 1 & 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Remember the website has slide presentations on each chapter </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http:// www.prenhall.com/marakas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chapter 1 covers the Introduction to Decision Support Systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chapter 3 covers decision making in the organisation </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. So……. <ul><li>What is the likelihood that it will rain today? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the processes you think you will need to go through to get the degree classification you are chasing? </li></ul><ul><li>If the fire alarm suddenly goes off during this lecture what are the possible outcomes? </li></ul><ul><li>Which investment strategy should I undertake? </li></ul>