Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Lecture Juniper
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Lecture Juniper

371
views

Published on

Published in: Education, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
371
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. JUNIPER
    • A process modelling methodology
    • Uses judgements on uncertainty
    • Is hierarchical in its structure
      • But is NOT a decision tree
    • Used to facilitate group discussions and opinions
  • 2. The Juniper Approach in Context
    • This is not a trademark piece of software
    • Came about by Oil Industry sponsorship to research decision-making processes
      • As part of their asset team portfolio management
    • Basically they wanted a vehicle to take into meetings that could facilitate and record the decision making process discussed
  • 3. A typical decision?
    • Where shall I drill my next well?
    • Just because one well has struck oil doesn’t mean that another in the vicinity will
  • 4. So where to start?
    • Thinking organised around processes
      • And how processes break down into smaller ones
      • Until we define our problem to the required level of detail
    • Difficulties are:
      • How to decide on the problem
      • How to make the judgements
      • How to best structure the problem
  • 5.  
  • 6. Processes
    • Try to think of them in terms of something that is ‘ongoing’
    • Try to therefore use a sensible verb that conveys this
      • E.g. establishing, determining, doing, etc
    • Define them only to the level you feel is fit for purpose
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9. Review of Task
    • Focus on Objective Process
    • Structure the Problem Appropriately
    • Make Judgements of Evidence
    • Use Interval Probability Theory to propagate judgements
    • Use propagation to support decisions
  • 10. Evidence and Uncertainty
    • Evidence For and Against Success
    • Uncertainty
    • Sufficiency
    • Dependency
    • Necessity
  • 11.  
  • 12.  
  • 13.  
  • 14.  
  • 15.  
  • 16.  
  • 17.  
  • 18.  
  • 19.  
  • 20.  
  • 21.  
  • 22.  
  • 23.  
  • 24.  
  • 25.  
  • 26. The idea is that ……..
    • As you change your judgements you can see the effect of any changes on the higher processes
    • If the read and the green collided you will get an amber colour
      • Meaning WARNING!
      • In this case you should revisit some of your judgments as this is an illegal state as the evidence for and against has crossed over!
  • 27.