JUNIPER <ul><li>A process modelling methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Uses judgements on uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Is hier...
The Juniper Approach in Context <ul><li>This is not a trademark piece of software </li></ul><ul><li>Came about by Oil Indu...
A typical decision? <ul><li>Where shall I drill my next well? </li></ul><ul><li>Just because one well has struck oil doesn...
So where to start? <ul><li>Thinking organised around processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And how processes break down into sma...
 
Processes <ul><li>Try to think of them in terms of something that is ‘ongoing’ </li></ul><ul><li>Try to therefore use a se...
 
 
Review of Task <ul><li>Focus on Objective Process </li></ul><ul><li>Structure the Problem Appropriately </li></ul><ul><li>...
Evidence and Uncertainty <ul><li>Evidence For and Against Success </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Sufficie...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The idea is that …….. <ul><li>As you change your judgements you can see the effect of any changes on the higher processes ...
 
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Lecture Juniper

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Lecture Juniper

  1. 1. JUNIPER <ul><li>A process modelling methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Uses judgements on uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Is hierarchical in its structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But is NOT a decision tree </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Used to facilitate group discussions and opinions </li></ul>
  2. 2. The Juniper Approach in Context <ul><li>This is not a trademark piece of software </li></ul><ul><li>Came about by Oil Industry sponsorship to research decision-making processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>As part of their asset team portfolio management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Basically they wanted a vehicle to take into meetings that could facilitate and record the decision making process discussed </li></ul>
  3. 3. A typical decision? <ul><li>Where shall I drill my next well? </li></ul><ul><li>Just because one well has struck oil doesn’t mean that another in the vicinity will </li></ul>
  4. 4. So where to start? <ul><li>Thinking organised around processes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>And how processes break down into smaller ones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Until we define our problem to the required level of detail </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Difficulties are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to decide on the problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How to make the judgements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How to best structure the problem </li></ul></ul>
  5. 6. Processes <ul><li>Try to think of them in terms of something that is ‘ongoing’ </li></ul><ul><li>Try to therefore use a sensible verb that conveys this </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. establishing, determining, doing, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Define them only to the level you feel is fit for purpose </li></ul>
  6. 9. Review of Task <ul><li>Focus on Objective Process </li></ul><ul><li>Structure the Problem Appropriately </li></ul><ul><li>Make Judgements of Evidence </li></ul><ul><li>Use Interval Probability Theory to propagate judgements </li></ul><ul><li>Use propagation to support decisions </li></ul>
  7. 10. Evidence and Uncertainty <ul><li>Evidence For and Against Success </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Sufficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Necessity </li></ul>
  8. 26. The idea is that …….. <ul><li>As you change your judgements you can see the effect of any changes on the higher processes </li></ul><ul><li>If the read and the green collided you will get an amber colour </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Meaning WARNING! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In this case you should revisit some of your judgments as this is an illegal state as the evidence for and against has crossed over! </li></ul></ul>

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