10 mobile gaming trends (2010)

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Presentation given to mobile operators and aggregators as part of GameHouse Summer Scholl 2010.

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10 mobile gaming trends (2010)

  1. 1.   Key trends and opportunities in  the mobile games business jon jordan editor, pocketgamer.biz jon@pocketgamer.co.uk
  2. 2. 1. App discovery <ul><ul><li>Apple's App Store is too competitive with 250,000 apps, including 47,624 games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>App stores aren't good for discovery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only brands can maintain premium price and drive volumes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weak communication between developers, audience and press  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rise of social/viral solutions such as OpenFeint, Plus+ and FreeAppADay </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. 2. Cross platform (1) <ul><ul><li>Huge opportunity – 230k iOS, 200k Android, 260k Nokia and 143k RIM sold daily </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Using Apple App Store for branding then take to Java, Brew, Android, Ovi </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Doodle Jump (Real) , Pocket God (Capcom), Flight Control (Namco) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive upwards price differential </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current push onto Android with OpenFeint acting as an aggregator ( Fruit Ninja, MiniSquadron, Flick Kick Football etc) </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. 3. Cross platform (2) <ul><ul><li>Supporting as many mobile platforms as possible is vital for freemium social games trying to create the Facebook effect on mobile as they need the largest audience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driven by social networks such as Plus+, Scoreloop and OpenFeint </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also Namco’s Unite, Gameloft LIVE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eventually links into PC and console gaming i.e. Guild Wars 2 Extended Exp. </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. 4. Android <ul><ul><li>Like peeing your pants for warmth according to Nokia's Anssi Vanjoki </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Free for all for OEMs, ODMs, operators and consumer brands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Java versus native gaming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highly fragmented - tablets? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weak market and purchasing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Wild West of mobile so hard to monetise but fortunes will be made and lost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eventually, law and order will be enforced </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. 5. Volume(s) <ul><ul><li>Linked to discovery in terms of the ability to drive download volumes in a short space of time to gain chart visibility i.e. discovery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Releasing a large volume of games enables cross promotion cf Backflip Studios' 50 million iOS downloads drive 4 million downloads for each new title </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gameloft released 55 iOS games in mid 2008-2009. Plans 60 in 2010 </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. 6. App pricing <ul><ul><li>Competition and discovery issues on App Store have been deflationary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Best selling Angry Birds' revenue 'only' $4.5 million net to publisher/developer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When will we see the first $10 million game from app store(s) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social ARPU estimated at $1-2/month has driven mobile freemium i.e. ngmoco </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. 7. Billing <ul><ul><li>Fine for Apple with its 150 million iTunes accounts but credit cards aren’t scalable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>200 million PayPal accounts, now including integration with Android Market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to have much more flexibility cf Zygna gift cards in 12,800 US stores.   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nokia says operator billing gives 13x increase in sales on Ovi Store </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Key opportunity for operators cf Vodafone and subscription models </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. 8. Application stores <ul><ul><li>Depending on your philosophy, there are too many app stores or not enough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rise of GetJar, PocketGear, Mobango </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Operators’ walled gardens (still) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ones that work will be simple in terms of finding, downloading and buying something you enjoy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Difference between on-device and web based </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. 9. Marketing <ul><ul><li>Amazing how different the smartphone era is to the Java/Brew market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer marketing is mainly from developers and piecemeal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Big mobile publishers have backed off </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstrates the immaturity of the market and will have to change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps the biggest opportunity for operators </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. 10. Game quality <ul><ul><li>This drives the entire market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two years on from Apple's App Store launch, we're finally seeing console quality content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>200MB size, OpenGL ES 2.0 graphics such as Modern Combat and N.O.V.A. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highly viral online, cross platform games like We Rule, GodFinger and Pocket Frogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Casual time killers such as Angry Birds, Doodle Jump, Fruit Ninja and Flight Control </li></ul></ul>
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