Italy, ultimo atto

Italy, ultimo attoUniversity of notre dame, 6 may 2011. revised may 16th.
Toward the end of the Italian national State (1861-2011)

In limine…
Contra factum non valet argumentum
(Most recently quoted by Father Jenkins, C.S.C., President of Notre Dame, in his preface to the booklet presenting the Notre Dame Institute for Advanced Study, 2010)

Dr. Paolo L. Bernardini
Professor of Modern European History, University of Insubria (Como)
Inaugural Fellow, Institute for Advanced Study, University of Notre Dame, Spring 2011
Fellow, The Mises Institute, Auburn (Alabama)
Ph.D., European University Institute, 1994.

The Present State of Italy
Since 1991, Italy has sharply declined in all the international rankings, as for parameters including national GDP, freedom from corruption, freedom of the press, education, health, public and private sectors, unemployementrates (40% in some areas of Southern Italy); ISTAT and CENSIS, the two major State statistical bureaus, offer year after year a more and more depressing view of Italy.

Even when most of the EU is recovering…

INDEX OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM 2011
For this presentation, I will rely on one of the several international rankings, the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF), published yearly thanks to a joint effort of The Wall Street Journal and “The Heritage Foundation”, as well as of several national think tanks, in Italy, the “Istituto Bruno Leoni”:
www.brunoleoni.com

http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/Italy
How does the IEF work?
It uses ten parameters, with values 0-100 (100 being the absolute best), that determine economic freedom.
It ranks all the countries in the world (currently, 179 out of 183 -- there are not available data for IRAQ, SUDAN, AFGHANISTAN, LICHTENSTEIN -- the first three being countries in state of war).

The Parameters
Ten Economic Freedoms of Italy
77.3 Business FreedomAvg 64.3
75.0 Investment FreedomAvg 50.2
87.6 Trade Freedom Avg. 74.8
60.0 Financial FreedomAvg 48.5
55.4 Fiscal Freedom Avg. 76.3
50.0 Property RightsAvg 43.6
28.6 Government Spending Avg. 63.9
43.0 Fdm. from CorruptionAvg 40.5
82.1 Monetary Freedom Avg. 73.4
44.4 Labor FreedomAvg 61.5

Freedom isand is not Wealth
The simplest parameter to judge about the prosperity of a Country, national and relevant per capita GDP, is NOT one of the parameters.
However, there is evidence that over the medium short term States with an high score in EF, enhance their GPD.

However…
Ireland’s rank in the IEF: 7th
Italy’s rank in the IEF: 87th
With the following top 11:
Hong Kong
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Switzerland
Canada
Ireland
Denmark
United States
Bahrain
Chile

Italy’s main data
Population:
59.8 million
GDP (PPP):$29,109 per capita
$1.7 trillion
-5.0% growth
-0.7% 5-year compound annual growth
Unemployment:
7.8%
Inflation (CPI):
0.8%
FDI Inflow:
$30.5 billion

By comparison…
Nemo miser nisi comparatus…
(Seneca)

Let’s take…Ireland!
Population:
4.4 million
GDP (PPP):
$175.1 billion
-7.1% growth
0.2% 5-year compound annual growth
$39,468 per capita
Unemployment: 11.9%
Inflation (CPI):-1.7%
FDI Inflow:
$25.0 billion

The worst parameter: Government spending!

VENETO

LOMBARDIA

LIGURIA

SARDEGNA

PIEMONTE

SICILY

TUSCANY

NAPOLITANIA

FRIULI

EMILIA-ROMAGNA

RELATED YOUTH ORGANIZATIONS..

International networks x social nets (FB, Twitter..)

What about Lazio?
The problems for a separatist movement in Lazio, and part of central Italy, is that Rome is at the same time the Italian capital city and the seat of the Pope.
For the time being, it seems not probable that the Pope would/could take back up his temporal power. However, this cannot be absolutely excluded.
Lazio and part of central Italy, including Marche and Umbria, part of Abruzzo, might remain what will be left of Italy (Serbia-Yugoslavia model).

Example of political activities…

Common principles…
Refusal of any form of violence to reach independence.
Legal path to independence.
Montenegro is the model (not Kosovo).
For Montenegro however the majority was set by the EU/UN at 55%.
Call of local referendum.
If the absolute majority is reached, negotiations begin with Italy.
In the meantime, independence declared.

4 Strenghts and 4 weaknesses
Strong interconnection one with the other (through social networks like Facebook, Twitter).
Young and motivated people.
Highly educated members.
Internationally connected.
Too many movements in the various regions.
Lack of diffusion in the traditional media.
Weak presence so far in the administrative elections (the only ones where obviously these movements/parties run. )
Lack of awareness in the average Italian citizen.

Traditional Italian separatist parties
Union Valdotaine
SudTirolerVolkspartei
LigaVeneta (1970s)
MIS (1940s)
Sardinian separatists (1700-)
French speaking Italy
German speaking Italy
Deceased
Deceased
Reconfigured

May 2011 positive events
SNP gains the absolute majority at Holyrood on May 5th, paving the way for Scotland’s independence after 4 centuries (1603).
May 15th-16th administrative elections in Italy deprives of legitimacy the Italian traditional parties, above all the LN, with its not realized project of Italian federalism.

What about the “Lega Nord”?
The Lega Nord is a government party, not in favor of any separation, only in favor of a mild form of “federalism” historically and technically not applicable to a centralized State.
Once upon time, when the Lega was created in the 1970s, it was championing the separation of Italy in 3 or more independent states, in an abstract way. Its ideologue was the late Professor Gianfranco Miglio.

European Scenario
Recently created States:
Kosovo
Montenegro
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Greenland
Slovenia
Croatia
States that might be created in the near future:
Scotland
Wales
Catalunia
Flanders-French Belgium
Basque country

Economic advantages in the small size of States.
Reference:
A. Alesina, D. Spolaore, The Size of Nations, MIT Press, 2005.

GDP national vs GDP individual
The richest countries in the world per GDP per capita are almost all under 10 million inhabitants, most of them under 20 and 30 millions. Some examples..
Luxembourg
Qatar
Switzerland
Norway
UAE
Ireland

States on the verge of division (non European)
Sudan
Yemen*
Nigeria (auspicable)
Camba State (Bolivia)
If Yemen splits, the only post WWII state to be a newly unified State is going to remain Germany.

Historical trend in state formation post-1945
A reference work for the historical state formation post-1945 is B. Roehner, with the collaboration of L. J. Rahilly, Separatism and Integration. A Study in Analytical History, Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham etc. ,2002.

Rohner, p. 4.

Rohner, p. 5.

How the new States will/could be governed?
A small state can be economically efficient and wealthy no matters how it is governed, if we consider that there are 2 broad options:
A. Free economy
B. Welfare-oriented
A1. UAE
A2. Hong Kong
A3. Singapore
B1. Norway
B2. Denmark
B3. Switzerland

Options for the new states
To be or not to be…
1. Members of the EU
1.1. If yes, adopt EURO as a currency.
2. Members of the NATO
3. Members of a possible “Italian federation”.
Options…
1. To remain members of the EU but to adopt a local currency, or a double-currency system.
2. To get out of the EU : Norway and Switzerland, not part of EU, are among the best performing European economies.

Addiomiabellaaddio…

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Italy, ultimo atto

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