Baker election2012

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Analysis of the 2012 U.S. election by Jacksonville University Prof. Stephen Baker

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Baker election2012

  1. 1. 2012 Presidential Election: What Happened? Stephen Baker, Ph.D. Professor of Political Science Social Science Research Center Jacksonville University sbaker@ju.eduhttp://users.ju.edu/sbaker/election2012.pptsx
  2. 2. POLITICS• Aristotle: Politics is the noblest of all professions and queen of all sciences• Otto von Bismarck: People sleep better at night if they don’t know how laws and sausages are made• Everett Dirksen: Politics is a bit like sex— those who think it’s dirty just aren’t doing it right
  3. 3. Let the games begin!
  4. 4. Generic Explanation of ElectionsWinner’s explanation: • America has spoken • We had a great campaignLoser’s explanation: • We failed to communicate effectively • The opponents had a great campaign
  5. 5. Popular Vote MarginsDave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  6. 6. http://www.270towin.com/
  7. 7. /http://www.270towin.com
  8. 8. Geographically more areas went for the Republican, Mitt Romney than the Democrat, Barack ObamaBut Obama won in the high population areas
  9. 9. U.S. 2012 Presidential Election by Counties
  10. 10. Proportionate Change from 2008
  11. 11. Population Density Map of the U.S. Map by Robert J. Vanderbeihttp://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/ Princeton University
  12. 12. 2012 Presidential Election: 3 D Model
  13. 13. 33 Senate Races (23 Dem seats + 10 Rep seats) Net gain=2 Dem seats New York Times
  14. 14. 33 Senate Seats (county level) New York Times
  15. 15. New York Times
  16. 16. Susan MacManus
  17. 17. Duval 2012 Presidential Race Supervisor of Elections Web Page
  18. 18. Duval 2012 Senate Race Supervisor of Elections Web Page
  19. 19. Presidential Senate Supervisor of Elections Web Page
  20. 20. 2012 Presidential Election Created by Dr. Jeff Martin JU Geography Department
  21. 21. Jacksonville Univesity 2012 Presidential Survey Results Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/NoneStudents 42% 50% 5% 3% (411)Faculty 55 39 2 3* (104)Administration 63 37 - - (49)Staff 46 54 - - (54) Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/NoneFreshman 25% 64% 8% 3% (61)Soph. 33 53 3 10 (60)Junior 45 51 4 - (102)Senior 45 45 6 4 (113)Grad. St. 55 39 4 1 (69)Faculty vote by College Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/NoneArts/Sciences 64% 31% - 4% (52)Fine Arts 69 19 6 6 (16)Health 44 56 - - (16)Business 21 79 - - (14)Other 50 33 16 - (6)
  22. 22. The Money Chase Center for Responsive Politics
  23. 23. Center for Responsive Politics
  24. 24. Polling Data from 2008 ElectionPolitics has got so expensive that it takes lots of money even to get beat. —Will Rogers
  25. 25. Most Expensive Senate Races“We have the best Congress money can buy.” —Will Rogers
  26. 26. Exit Polls:Comparing 2008 and 2012
  27. 27. Exit Poll Archives: 1972 through 2008
  28. 28. My name is Stephen Baker and I approved this message For a copy of this presentation seehttp://users.ju.edu/sbaker/election2012.ppsx

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