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The Mobile Gaming Market Mess:Who to believe in 2013?!@benjaminjoffe	  |	  GMGC	  2013	  
Geography	  1.  China	  mostly	  2.  US	  mostly	  3.  Mix	  or	  Other	  
How	  is	  your	  company?	  1.  Very	  profitable	  2.  Around	  breakeven	  3.  Not	  breaking	  even	  yet	  
I	  spent	  most	  of	  my	  working	  life	  (11	  years)	  overseas,	  especially	  in	  Japan,	  China,	  South	  Korea...
Digital Naturalist"
•  150+	  talks	  &	  500,000+	  views	  on	  SlideShare	  Speaker"
Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"
Angel Investor!1.  Gengo	  (JP)	  2.  TokyoOtakuMode	  (JP)	  3.  Cmune	  (CN)	  4.  TwitMusic	  (PH)	  5.  PayrollHero	  ...
Other People’s Predictions!
Games.com	  Predic`ons	  •  Big	  Ktles	  –  Temple	  Run	  –  The	  Walking	  Dead	  •  SubscripKon	  model	  •  Kids	  g...
1.5	  million	  ac`va`ons	  per	  day	  1	  billion	  by	  end	  2013	  Why	  am	  I	  looking	  down?	  
Market Figures!“I’m bored. What could I play?”	  
$195m revenue, 45% toys"$9B Valuation?"
$2.4m / day?"$770m Valuation?"
$2m / day? TV ads"$10B Market Cap"
What	  in	  common?	  
$200m in 2013?"Valuation $1B?"
Market	  Caps	  •  GREE 	   	   	   	   	   	   	  $4.0B	  	  •  DENA	   	   	   	   	   	   	  $4.1B	  •  Gungho 	   	   ...
Smaller	  guys	  •  Korea	  –  Gamevil 	   	   	  $514	  million	  –  Come2US 	   	  $458	  million	  •  Japan	  –  Ateam ...
Value	  Crea`on	  in	  Mobile	  Gaming	  •  Japan	   	   	  $20	  billion	  •  Korea	   	   	  $1	  billion	  •  Europe 	 ...
M&As	  (for	  memory)	  •  NGMOGO 	   	  $303	  million 	   	  DeNA	  (2010)	  •  OpenFeint	  	   	  $103	  million	  	   ...
Source:	  SerkanToto.com	  
Other	  guys	  •  Temple	  Run	  •  Gameloj	  •  Cut	  the	  Rope	  •  Talking	  Tom	  Cat	  •  Many,	  many,	  many	  oth...
Billion-­‐dollar	  mobile	  genres?	  •  So	  far	  all	  casual	  &	  mid-­‐core	  •  Console	  /	  PC	  $1B	  categories...
2011 	   	   	   	  2012 	   	   	   	   	   	   	  2013	  Casual 	   	   	  Mid-­‐Core 	   	   	   	   	   	   	  Core	  
Metrics!“At least it’s not meat”	  
Old	  Metrics	  •  Registered	  users	  •  MAU	  •  DAU	  •  ARPU	  •  ARPPU	  
New	  Metrics	  •  Quality	  DAU	  (QDAU)	  •  1,	  2,	  7,	  30	  days	  Reten`on	  •  Conversion	  to	  paying	  •  LTV	...
Problems	  •  App	  discovery	  – Apple	  killing	  discovery	  apps	  – Rankings	  
Problems	  •  App	  discovery	  – Apple	  killing	  discovery	  apps	  – Rankings	  •  CPI	  – How	  far	  in	  the	  futu...
But	  don’t	  forget!	  •  Onboarding	  flow	  •  Sense	  of	  progress	  •  Connec`on	  •  FUN	  
Communication or Entertainment?!“I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”	  
Messaging	  Apps	  =	  New	  Discovery	  Channel?	  
Thanks!	  谢谢大家!	  	  benjamin@plus8star.com	  
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
The Mobile Gaming Mess
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The Mobile Gaming Mess

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What will happen in 2013? What value was created in 2012 in mobile gaming?

Transcript of "The Mobile Gaming Mess"

  1. 1. The Mobile Gaming Market Mess:Who to believe in 2013?!@benjaminjoffe  |  GMGC  2013  
  2. 2. Geography  1.  China  mostly  2.  US  mostly  3.  Mix  or  Other  
  3. 3. How  is  your  company?  1.  Very  profitable  2.  Around  breakeven  3.  Not  breaking  even  yet  
  4. 4. I  spent  most  of  my  working  life  (11  years)  overseas,  especially  in  Japan,  China,  South  Korea  and  USA.  My  cultural  DNA  has  become  rather  complex.  13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"
  5. 5. Digital Naturalist"
  6. 6. •  150+  talks  &  500,000+  views  on  SlideShare  Speaker"
  7. 7. Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"
  8. 8. Angel Investor!1.  Gengo  (JP)  2.  TokyoOtakuMode  (JP)  3.  Cmune  (CN)  4.  TwitMusic  (PH)  5.  PayrollHero  (PH)  6.  StoryPanda  (CA)  7.  CuriousHat  (US)  8.  YoGoMe  (MX)  9.  TenderTree  (US)  10. SmartBites  (US)  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  
  9. 9. Other People’s Predictions!
  10. 10. Games.com  Predic`ons  •  Big  Ktles  –  Temple  Run  –  The  Walking  Dead  •  SubscripKon  model  •  Kids  games  –  Educa`onal,  –  Based  on  books,  movies,  TV  shows  
  11. 11. 1.5  million  ac`va`ons  per  day  1  billion  by  end  2013  Why  am  I  looking  down?  
  12. 12. Market Figures!“I’m bored. What could I play?”  
  13. 13. $195m revenue, 45% toys"$9B Valuation?"
  14. 14. $2.4m / day?"$770m Valuation?"
  15. 15. $2m / day? TV ads"$10B Market Cap"
  16. 16. What  in  common?  
  17. 17. $200m in 2013?"Valuation $1B?"
  18. 18. Market  Caps  •  GREE              $4.0B    •  DENA              $4.1B  •  Gungho            $10.4B      •  Zynga              $2.5B  •  EA                $5.39B  •  Ac`vision  Blizzard      $16.91B  
  19. 19. Smaller  guys  •  Korea  –  Gamevil      $514  million  –  Come2US    $458  million  •  Japan  –  Ateam      $280  million  –  Drecom      $270  million  –  Crooz      $265  million  –  Klab        $187  million  –  Enish        $124  million  –  Voltage      $50  million  –  Cave        $24  million  –  Axel  Mark    $24  million  $1B  $1.2B  
  20. 20. Value  Crea`on  in  Mobile  Gaming  •  Japan      $20  billion  •  Korea      $1  billion  •  Europe    $10  billion  •  US        ?  •  China      ?    
  21. 21. M&As  (for  memory)  •  NGMOGO    $303  million    DeNA  (2010)  •  OpenFeint      $103  million      GREE  (2011)  •  Funzio      $210  million      GREE  (2012)  •  Pokelabo    $170  million    GREE  (2012)  •  OMGPOP      $180  million    Zynga  (2012)  •  GungHo      $265  million*    Sojbank  (2013)  =  $1.2B  
  22. 22. Source:  SerkanToto.com  
  23. 23. Other  guys  •  Temple  Run  •  Gameloj  •  Cut  the  Rope  •  Talking  Tom  Cat  •  Many,  many,  many  others  
  24. 24. Billion-­‐dollar  mobile  genres?  •  So  far  all  casual  &  mid-­‐core  •  Console  /  PC  $1B  categories?  – Almost  untouched  on  mobile  &  tablets  – Shooters,  Racing,  Sports,  Music  &  Dance  
  25. 25. 2011        2012              2013  Casual      Mid-­‐Core              Core  
  26. 26. Metrics!“At least it’s not meat”  
  27. 27. Old  Metrics  •  Registered  users  •  MAU  •  DAU  •  ARPU  •  ARPPU  
  28. 28. New  Metrics  •  Quality  DAU  (QDAU)  •  1,  2,  7,  30  days  Reten`on  •  Conversion  to  paying  •  LTV  •  Number  of  Game  Sessions  •  ROI  vs  UA  
  29. 29. Problems  •  App  discovery  – Apple  killing  discovery  apps  – Rankings  
  30. 30. Problems  •  App  discovery  – Apple  killing  discovery  apps  – Rankings  •  CPI  – How  far  in  the  future  are  you  front-­‐running  revenue?  
  31. 31. But  don’t  forget!  •  Onboarding  flow  •  Sense  of  progress  •  Connec`on  •  FUN  
  32. 32. Communication or Entertainment?!“I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”  
  33. 33. Messaging  Apps  =  New  Discovery  Channel?  
  34. 34. Thanks!  谢谢大家!    benjamin@plus8star.com  
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