The Mobile Gaming Mess

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What will happen in 2013? What value was created in 2012 in mobile gaming?

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The Mobile Gaming Mess

  1. The Mobile Gaming Market Mess:Who to believe in 2013?!@benjaminjoffe  |  GMGC  2013  
  2. Geography  1.  China  mostly  2.  US  mostly  3.  Mix  or  Other  
  3. How  is  your  company?  1.  Very  profitable  2.  Around  breakeven  3.  Not  breaking  even  yet  
  4. I  spent  most  of  my  working  life  (11  years)  overseas,  especially  in  Japan,  China,  South  Korea  and  USA.  My  cultural  DNA  has  become  rather  complex.  13 Years Across Asia (& some US)"
  5. Digital Naturalist"
  6. •  150+  talks  &  500,000+  views  on  SlideShare  Speaker"
  7. Mentor @ Startup Accelerators"
  8. Angel Investor!1.  Gengo  (JP)  2.  TokyoOtakuMode  (JP)  3.  Cmune  (CN)  4.  TwitMusic  (PH)  5.  PayrollHero  (PH)  6.  StoryPanda  (CA)  7.  CuriousHat  (US)  8.  YoGoMe  (MX)  9.  TenderTree  (US)  10. SmartBites  (US)  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  Funded!  
  9. Other People’s Predictions!
  10. Games.com  Predic`ons  •  Big  Ktles  –  Temple  Run  –  The  Walking  Dead  •  SubscripKon  model  •  Kids  games  –  Educa`onal,  –  Based  on  books,  movies,  TV  shows  
  11. 1.5  million  ac`va`ons  per  day  1  billion  by  end  2013  Why  am  I  looking  down?  
  12. Market Figures!“I’m bored. What could I play?”  
  13. $195m revenue, 45% toys"$9B Valuation?"
  14. $2.4m / day?"$770m Valuation?"
  15. $2m / day? TV ads"$10B Market Cap"
  16. What  in  common?  
  17. $200m in 2013?"Valuation $1B?"
  18. Market  Caps  •  GREE              $4.0B    •  DENA              $4.1B  •  Gungho            $10.4B      •  Zynga              $2.5B  •  EA                $5.39B  •  Ac`vision  Blizzard      $16.91B  
  19. Smaller  guys  •  Korea  –  Gamevil      $514  million  –  Come2US    $458  million  •  Japan  –  Ateam      $280  million  –  Drecom      $270  million  –  Crooz      $265  million  –  Klab        $187  million  –  Enish        $124  million  –  Voltage      $50  million  –  Cave        $24  million  –  Axel  Mark    $24  million  $1B  $1.2B  
  20. Value  Crea`on  in  Mobile  Gaming  •  Japan      $20  billion  •  Korea      $1  billion  •  Europe    $10  billion  •  US        ?  •  China      ?    
  21. M&As  (for  memory)  •  NGMOGO    $303  million    DeNA  (2010)  •  OpenFeint      $103  million      GREE  (2011)  •  Funzio      $210  million      GREE  (2012)  •  Pokelabo    $170  million    GREE  (2012)  •  OMGPOP      $180  million    Zynga  (2012)  •  GungHo      $265  million*    Sojbank  (2013)  =  $1.2B  
  22. Source:  SerkanToto.com  
  23. Other  guys  •  Temple  Run  •  Gameloj  •  Cut  the  Rope  •  Talking  Tom  Cat  •  Many,  many,  many  others  
  24. Billion-­‐dollar  mobile  genres?  •  So  far  all  casual  &  mid-­‐core  •  Console  /  PC  $1B  categories?  – Almost  untouched  on  mobile  &  tablets  – Shooters,  Racing,  Sports,  Music  &  Dance  
  25. 2011        2012              2013  Casual      Mid-­‐Core              Core  
  26. Metrics!“At least it’s not meat”  
  27. Old  Metrics  •  Registered  users  •  MAU  •  DAU  •  ARPU  •  ARPPU  
  28. New  Metrics  •  Quality  DAU  (QDAU)  •  1,  2,  7,  30  days  Reten`on  •  Conversion  to  paying  •  LTV  •  Number  of  Game  Sessions  •  ROI  vs  UA  
  29. Problems  •  App  discovery  – Apple  killing  discovery  apps  – Rankings  
  30. Problems  •  App  discovery  – Apple  killing  discovery  apps  – Rankings  •  CPI  – How  far  in  the  future  are  you  front-­‐running  revenue?  
  31. But  don’t  forget!  •  Onboarding  flow  •  Sense  of  progress  •  Connec`on  •  FUN  
  32. Communication or Entertainment?!“I wish I hadn’t used SnapChat”  
  33. Messaging  Apps  =  New  Discovery  Channel?  
  34. Thanks!  谢谢大家!    benjamin@plus8star.com  

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