Asian Eye for the Slovene Guy

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Presentation about Asia's mobile industry at Mobile Monday Slovenia in January 2011

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Asian Eye for the Slovene Guy

  1. 1. Asian  Eye   for  the   Slovene  Guy  Mobile  Monday  Slovenia  |  2011.01   @benjaminjoffe  
  2. 2. “Digital  Asia  Guy”  
  3. 3. ZDRAVO! MY NAME IS@benjaminjoffe
  4. 4. 4  years   1  year   5  years  
  5. 5. •  Mobile  Monday  Beijing  |  Co-­‐Founder  •  37  events,  130  speakers,  3,000+  parKcipants  
  6. 6. •  CEO,  Plus  Eight  Star  |  www.plus8star.com   –  Best  pracKces  from  Asia’s  digital  space   –  Research,  Strategy  &  “InnovaKon  Arbitrage”  
  7. 7. IT  MNCs  Startups   Non-­‐IT  
  8. 8. Angel  Investor,  Advisor,  Keynote  Speaker   •  Speaker    100+  talks  in  16  countries   •  Advisor   •  Investor  in  Asia-­‐based  global  companies  
  9. 9. My  Interests  •  Mix  Technology,  Psychology  &  Sociology   –  Virtual  economies   –  Digital  third  places   –  Online  social  dynamics   –  ArKficial  arKficial  intelligence  (AAI)  •  (And  also)   –  Languages,  MarKal  arts,  Drawing  
  10. 10. Asia  vs.  The  World  
  11. 11. Common  AssumpKon  #1  Everything  from  USA  is  great
  12. 12. Common  AssumpKon  #2  Everything  from  Asia  is  strange
  13. 13. Common  AssumpKon  #2  Everything  from  Asia  is  strange (and  someKmes  funny)
  14. 14. Western  Framing   of  InnovaKon  
  15. 15. Kimba  the  White  Lion   The  Lion  King   (Japan,  1965)   (US,  1994)  “Even  our  lawyers  are  not  that  good”   –  a  Disney  animator  (rumor)  
  16. 16. 5C’s  of  InnovaKon  
  17. 17. 3  Stages  for  InnovaKon   Entrepreneur   Inventor   (Business)   Idea   (Prototype)  (Bacteria  +  3D  +  iPhone)  
  18. 18. “Techno-­‐Darwinism”  Digital  EvoluKonary  Theory   a)  ReplicaKon   b)  MutaKon   c)  Natural  SelecKon   d)  Luck!   Dodo (extinct)
  19. 19. 5C’s  of  InnovaKon™  Ecosystem  Factors  for  Survival   1.  Copy   2.  CompeKKon   3.  CombinaKon   4.  Constraints   5.  Context  
  20. 20. Broadband  Ecosystems   Countries   CiOes  #1      Korea    14  Mbps   #1      Taegu  (KR)    18.3M  #2      HongKong  9.2  Mbps   #2-­‐11  Korea  #3      Japan    8.5  Mbps   #12-­‐45  Korea  &  Japan  …   …  #12    US      5.0  Mbps   #46  Hong  Kong   #48  Constanta  (Romania)   #52  Asnieres  (France)   #57  San  Jose  (US)  8.3Mbps  
  21. 21. Peak  Speed    What  was  it  you  called   broadband,  again?  
  22. 22. Japan  
  23. 23. Japan  Overview  •  98%  3G  (114  million  3G  subs)   –  2/3  flat  rate   –  NTT  DoCoMo  launched  LTE  in  2010.12  •  Devices   –  Flash  on  most  phones   –  Foreign  phones  <10%  market   –  IC  Cards  
  24. 24. Pricing  InnovaKon   (About  50  EUR  /  month  for  full  flat)  
  25. 25. Toward  Behavior  Assistance  
  26. 26. 3G  Success?  •  NOT  video  phones  •  Small  data   –  Social  networks   –  Casual  games   –  Mobile  commerce   –  Entertainment   –  NavigaKon  
  27. 27. Content  as  a  Service  •  Not  simply  paid  apps  •  Sustainable  revenues  •  Paid  by  users  
  28. 28. Content  vs.  Commerce  •  Commerce  $9.6B  ($90/user/year)   –  eBay  =  $2B  in  2010  (from  $600M  in  2009).   TOTAL   15,2    billion  USD   Million  USD   Commerce  =  Content   9,681   8,869   7,329   5,641   4,139   2,634   1,736   5,525   1,212   4,272   4,835   3,200   3,666   1,822   2,167   2,645   Source:  Japan  Mobile  Content  Forum,  2010  
  29. 29. Mobile  Services  •  Full  songs,  games,  SNS,  Avatars,  etc.   Million  USD   Source:  Japan  Mobile  Content  Forum,  2010  
  30. 30. Mobile  Social  Networks  •  3  Mobile  SNS  listed  on  stock  market   –  DeNA  (Mobage  =  “Mobile  Game  Town”)   –  GREE  (from  “Six  DeGREEs”)   –  Mixi  (iniKally  a  Friendster  adaptaKon)  •  20M  users  each  (some  in  common)  
  31. 31. Mobile  Social  Gaming  •  Self-­‐published  +  Open  plavorms        Some  ads   SNS   +   Free  games   +   Homepage   Virtual  goods  
  32. 32. Revenue  Model  •  Digital  goods  80%   –  Casual  Games   –  Avatars  •  Open  plavorm   –  Third  party  content  •  AdverKsing  <20%  
  33. 33. Impact  •  2000  |  First  wave  (2G)  •  2004  |  Second  wave  (2.5G)   –  (I  helped  an  M&A  in  Europe  for  18MEUR)  •  2010  |  Third  wave  (3G)   –  Revenue  2010:  $1.2B  for  Mobage,  $600M  for  GREE   –  DeNA  buys  ngmoco  in  US  ($400M)   •  Another  $500M  to  spend  next  year!   –  GREE  has  $250M  in  the  bank  
  34. 34. Zappallas   “The  Spirit  inside  You”  •  WTF?  •  Service   –  $3/month   –  2.2M  paying  users  •  Revenue   –  50  MEUR  in  6  months  (net  profit:  8.5  MEUR)   –  Listed  on  stock  market  (150  MEUR)  
  35. 35. Eki-­‐Tan   Mobile  NavigaKon  •  Started  in  1997  as  spin-­‐off  of  Toshiba  •  1,500  staKons,  weather  forecast,  flights  and  hotel   booking,  etc.  •  850,000  subs.  pay  $3/month  (20%  margin)  •  IPO  in  March  2011  
  36. 36. Tonchidot  •  “Look  up!  Not  down.”  •  AR  as  a  service  •  Campaigns  •  Funding:  $16M   –  KDDI,  DCM,  JAFCO,  etc.  
  37. 37. Korea:  Quiz!  
  38. 38. Korea  |  Missed  Opportunity  •  1994:  First  CMDA  network  •  2001:  CDMA  1x  deployed  •  Now  transiKoning  to  HSPA  •  Korean  mobile  startups??  
  39. 39. Korea  |  IT  Exports  •  $140bln  in  2010   –  Source:  Ministry  of  Knowledge  Economy  (MKE)  •  iPad  +  iPhone  4   –  Designed  in  California   –  Assembled  in  China   –  Parts  made  in  Korea  
  40. 40. Korea  surfing  Apple’s  Success  
  41. 41. China  
  42. 42. China  Market  Overview  •  China  Mobile   –  584M  users  (=  Facebook,  but  different  users!)   –  25  Bln  EUR  in  6  months  (6.5B  net  profit)   –  Monthly  Net  adds:      
  43. 43. Mobile  Services  •  Operators  •  Content  providers  ups  ands  downs  •  Fragmented  app  stores  market   –  China  Mobile,  China  Unicom,  China  Telecom   –  Nokia,  Motorola,  Samsung,  …   –  Local  phones  using  MediaTek  plavorm  
  44. 44. (Internet)  •  Tencent  |  World’s  #3  Internet  company   –  $2.5B  revenue   –  42%  net  profit   –  $45B  market  cap  •  10  Online  game  companies  listed  •  Youku  (“YouTube  of  China”)  and  DangDang   (“Amazon  of  China”)  just  listed  too  for  billions.  
  45. 45. Mobile  Couponing  |  Huicard  •  Usual  story:  stores  pay  •  Would  users  pay  for  coupons?  •  Lower  entry  barrier  •  Combine  with  search  +  large  directory  •  Charge  10  cents  per  coupon  
  46. 46. (Mystery  Startup)  •  Lots  of  content  providers  •  Lots  of  websites  who  can’t  moneKze  •  What  do  you  do?  
  47. 47. Shanzhai  InnovaKon:  Mass  customizaKon  
  48. 48. InnovaKon  Awareness  Test  
  49. 49. PHOTO:  MOBILE  PHONE,  BEIJING,  APRIL  2010  ©  Benjamin  Joffe  /  Plus  Eight  Star  Ltd.  
  50. 50. Hardware  InnovaOon:  “Shanzhai”  ( )  PHOTO:  MOBILE  PHONE,  BEIJING,  APRIL  2010  ©  Benjamin  Joffe  /  Plus  Eight  Star  Ltd.  
  51. 51. PHOTO:  MOBILE  PHONE,  BEIJING,  APRIL  2010  ©  Benjamin  Joffe  /  Plus  Eight  Star  Ltd.  
  52. 52. QQ  Farm  
  53. 53. “Shanzhai”  Spirit?  •  Cheap  •  Fun  •  Flashy  •  Fast  
  54. 54. Design  Your  Own  Mobile!  •  Design  teams  <  10  people  •  Factories  take  orders  from  5,000  units  •  Cost  <  50  EUR  
  55. 55. Hardware  commodiKzaKon  •  Change  your  iPod  into  a  phone!  
  56. 56. How  could  you…?  
  57. 57. 1.  …  leverage  proven  models?  
  58. 58. 2.  …  make  use  of  the  “Shanzhai”  spirit?  
  59. 59. 3.  …  and  create  your  own  success!  
  60. 60. Cmune  in  Beijing  Seeks  Talent!  •  #1  FPS  on  Facebook   –  InternaKonal  team   –  Top  Unity  game  on  FB   –  More  Ktles  to  come!  •  Check  it  out!   –  www.facebook.com/uberstrike   –  www.uberstrike.com    
  61. 61. Hvala!  www.plus8star.com  benjamin@plus8star.com     +81  |  Japan  benjaminjoffe   +82  |  Korea   +86  |  China  @benjaminjoffe     Telecom  &  Internet  www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminjoffe     +  Added  Value   *  High  quality  www.slideshare.net/plus8star    

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