Future Perspective in Information Technology (1998)

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Possibilities to support European Police Co-operation
Genval, November 6, 1998

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Future Perspective in Information Technology (1998)

  1. 1. Future Perspective in Information Technology: Possibilities to support European Police Co-operation Prof. Dr. H.J. van den Herik Dr. L.A. Plugge Universiteit Maastricht MATRIKS - Computer Science The Netherlands Conference: Across Schengen Borders Genval, November 6, 1998 Château du Lac, 11:45-12:10 hours
  2. 2. The Future Lies in Agent Technology <ul><li>(Jaap van den Herik and Leo Plugge) </li></ul><ul><li>an example will be provided </li></ul>
  3. 3. First, I would like to thank for ideas and exchange of ideas: <ul><li>Henk Mostert </li></ul><ul><li>Henk de Heus </li></ul><ul><li>Geert Oomens </li></ul><ul><li>Bert van Montfort </li></ul><ul><li>Ad Geus </li></ul><ul><li>Otto Spaniol </li></ul><ul><li>Roland Bueskens </li></ul><ul><li>Henk Siersma </li></ul><ul><li>Peter Prince </li></ul>
  4. 4. What are the ideas? What is the lecture? <ul><li>Ideas on the future technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on applications of this technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the acceptance of the applications </li></ul>
  5. 5. What are the ideas? What is the lecture? <ul><li>Ideas on applications of this technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the future technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the acceptance of the applications </li></ul>
  6. 6. Can Computers <ul><li>Calculate? (Zuse) </li></ul><ul><li>Play Chess? (Shannon) </li></ul><ul><li>Think? (Turing) </li></ul><ul><li>Learn? (Samuel) </li></ul><ul><li>Act as a psychotherapist? (Weizenbaum) </li></ul><ul><li>Decide a court case? (Van den Herik) </li></ul><ul><li>Act as a wise policeman? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a police officer? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a police constable? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Act as a philosopher? </li></ul><ul><li>Believe? </li></ul><ul><li>WHERE IS THE BORDERLINE? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Technology and Future Technology Mechanization 1950 Computerization 1970 Information handling 2000 Intelligent E-commerce E-commerce 2005 Agent Technology 2015 Ant Technology 1990 Intelligent programs Communication among computers (ICT)
  8. 8. The Development of Communication A single computer 1950 1962 Communication between two computers (MIT) ARPA-NET: 12 computers 1969 1980 ARPA-NET: 60 computers In Europe: EARN 1985 1989 INTERNET starts: 100,000 computers Continued...
  9. 9. The Development of Communication INTERNET starts: 100,000 computers 1989 1991 500,000 1.3 million 1993 1996 29.7 million ~ 100 million ( =10 8 ) 1998 2005 Around a billion (Am.) ( =10 9 ) Expectation
  10. 10. How do we Communicate? Single processor Two Four (an example) Eight 16 (4-cube)
  11. 11. 256 Node Binary Hypercube
  12. 12. Issues of Communication <ul><li>Technological </li></ul><ul><li>Financial </li></ul><ul><li>Economical </li></ul><ul><li>Legal </li></ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural </li></ul>
  13. 13. What do we Communicate? (In 1998) <ul><li>Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g., on cross-border communication </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g., on person looking for asylum </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Visual information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g., pictures of persons wanted, fingerprints </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Knowledge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>e.g., on the behaviour of football supporters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. What can we Communicate? <ul><li>Reading (text) </li></ul><ul><li>Sounding (voice) </li></ul><ul><li>Sensing (waves) </li></ul><ul><li>Smelling (perfume) </li></ul><ul><li>Tasting (salt) </li></ul>Humans have five senses. Hence, we may use computers for Multi Media
  15. 15. EMMI is only a start Progress in research is as follows Graphical interfaces Visualization Sonification Olfactorization Flavorization Sensibilization
  16. 16. Two Important Research Projects <ul><li>Controlling the computer by speech </li></ul><ul><li>Automatic Translation, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>i.e., communication by a computer in one’s own language </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. The Role of the European Union <ul><li>ESPRIT projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a.o. EMMI and Linguanet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ESPRIT transforms into ISP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I nformation S ociety P rogramme </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. What are the ideas? What is the lecture? <ul><li>Ideas on applications of this technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the future technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the acceptance of the applications </li></ul>
  19. 19. Application of the Agent Technology <ul><li>Communication between front office and back office </li></ul><ul><li>Communication is controlled by speech </li></ul><ul><li>Each policeman has a personal agent (a computer) for communication </li></ul>
  20. 20. The Future Practice <ul><li>Any patrolman has a virtual communication line with the police centre </li></ul><ul><li>Any patrolman has a speech-controlled agent </li></ul><ul><li>The agents can communicate among each other </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(searching for information; calling for help) </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. A Future Example (1) <ul><li>A male patrolman stops someone </li></ul><ul><li>He activates a small video camera in his policeman’s cap </li></ul><ul><li>He asks the person: name, address, and residence </li></ul><ul><li>He requests his agent to check the information received </li></ul>
  22. 22. A Future Example (2) <ul><li>The agent recognizes the foreign address </li></ul><ul><li>The agent communicates to another agent </li></ul><ul><li>The response is in within 10-20 seconds </li></ul><ul><li>The response is communicated to the patrolman via an earplug </li></ul>
  23. 23. A Future Example (3) <ul><li>The person seems to be known </li></ul><ul><li>A fingerprint would give a definitive answer </li></ul><ul><li>The patrolman requests the person to place the right thumb on the photoelectric cell of his mobile communicator </li></ul><ul><li>The agent communicates the information </li></ul><ul><li>The stopped person understands what happens and flees </li></ul>
  24. 24. A Future Example (3a) <ul><li>The person seems to be known </li></ul><ul><li>The DNA structure would give a definitive answer </li></ul><ul><li>The patrolman requests the person to spit in a small bowl </li></ul><ul><li>The agent communicates the information </li></ul><ul><li>The stopped person understands what happens and flees </li></ul>
  25. 25. A Future Example (3b) <ul><li>The person seems to be known </li></ul><ul><li>The DNA structure would give a definitive answer </li></ul><ul><li>The patrolman courteously takes a hair from the shoulder of the person’s coat and puts it in the agent’s input device </li></ul><ul><li>The agent communicates the information </li></ul><ul><li>The stopped person understand what happens and flees </li></ul>
  26. 26. A Future Example (4) <ul><li>The patrolman speaks to his agent: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ I would like to have support for pursuit!” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The agent knows the precise location of the patrolman </li></ul><ul><li>The agent calls the neighbour agents </li></ul><ul><li>They decide whether their patrolman (their boss!) can be called up for support </li></ul><ul><li>And so on </li></ul>
  27. 27. Some Remarks <ul><li>All technology suggested is already available, although not in the combination described here </li></ul><ul><li>The scene provides new technology, but also new management: the agent decides </li></ul><ul><li>Who should decide on the acceptance? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National Authorities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The European Union </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Who should provide (pay for) the necessary infrastructure? </li></ul>
  28. 28. What are the ideas? What is the lecture? <ul><li>Ideas on applications of this technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the future technology </li></ul><ul><li>Ideas on the acceptance of the applications </li></ul>
  29. 29. The Acceptance of the Applications <ul><li>The acceptance requires </li></ul><ul><li>A shift of mind </li></ul>
  30. 30. Obstacles <ul><li>80 percent of the highest police officers do not have any feeling for modern technology </li></ul><ul><li>There are many political barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Adequate infrastructure costs a large amount of money </li></ul><ul><li>The patrolmen have their own culture </li></ul>
  31. 31. What do we mean with “a shift of mind”? <ul><li>Let me present an example </li></ul><ul><li>from my beloved research domain </li></ul><ul><li>(computer) chess </li></ul>
  32. 32. The Power of a Representation Consider the following problem Begin End What is the shortest path to change the black and white Knights?
  33. 33. Solution Step 1: Number the Squares 10 8 5 2 1 9 6 3 7 4
  34. 34. Step 2: Determine the Nearest Neighbour Diagram for the Knight Move (which squares are neighbours as seen by a Knight) From We arrive at 10 8 5 2 1 9 6 3 7 4 10 8 5 2 1 9 6 3 7 4
  35. 35. Step 3: Determine the Starting Position and the End Position Step 4: Recognize that this is a Shunting Problem (with square 3 as a side track) W Z W Z Z W Z W
  36. 36. Step 5: The solution is now easy Shortest Path: 40 moves W Z W Z Z W W Z Z W Z W Z W Z W Z W W Z
  37. 37. AI Applications <ul><li>Routing (e.g., on Internet) </li></ul><ul><li>Financial Transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Telematics </li></ul><ul><li>Process Control </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic (airplanes, trains, cars) </li></ul><ul><li>Legal Knowledge-Based Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Multi Media Information Systems </li></ul><ul><li>The Patrolman’s Agent </li></ul><ul><li>Policy-Supporting Agents </li></ul><ul><li>Intelligent Management Systems </li></ul>From: Via: To: Chess Shunting
  38. 38. Your “last” question: Okay, if we accept the shift of mind, are all technological problems solved by now? The answer is: NO.
  39. 39. Six Fundamental Problems <ul><li>1. What precisely is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Normative behaviour (Conduct, Competence) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. How do we measure reliability of knowledge? </li></ul><ul><li>3. How do we store (represent) reliability (in a flexible way)? </li></ul><ul><li>4. Reasoning with uncertain and incomplete knowledge. </li></ul><ul><li>5. Reasoning with situation semantics. </li></ul><ul><li>6. How can we model normative behaviour? </li></ul>
  40. 40. A Perspective for the Next Ten Years <ul><li>1999 International Telebanking (increasing criminal actions) </li></ul><ul><li>2000 Tele education at some universities </li></ul><ul><li>2001 Tele education at the police schools </li></ul><ul><li>2002 Tele shopping </li></ul><ul><li>2003 Homologizing of police forces (a start) </li></ul><ul><li>2004 All police databases in European Union are connected </li></ul><ul><li>2005 Controlled exchange of information  tele working </li></ul><ul><li>2009 A patrolman is equipped with an agent </li></ul>
  41. 41. Current Obstacles <ul><li>Differences in </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Culture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Law </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And lack of money </li></ul>
  42. 42. Three Conclusions <ul><li>1. The advances in knowledge engineering have an exponential growth </li></ul><ul><li>2. The future performances of intelligent computers are greatly underestimated by almost all people, prominent researchers among them </li></ul><ul><li>3. The police officers of the European Union are privileged to have been informed on the advances of technology in such an early stage </li></ul>

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