The Phillips Curve showed a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. However, the problem that emerged with it in the 1970s was its total inability to explain unemployment and inflation going up together - stagflation. According to the Phillips curve they weren't supposed to do that, but throughout the 1970s they did. Friedman then put his mind to whether this could be adapted to show why stagflation was occurring, and the explanation he came up with was to include the role of expectations in the Phillips Curve - hence the name 'expectations-augmented'. Once again the supreme logic of economics comes to the fore!Friedman argued that there were a series of different Phillips curves for each level of expected inflation. If people expected inflation to occur then they would anticipate and expect a correspondingly higher wage rise. Friedman was therefore assuming no 'money illusion'- people would anticipate inflation and account for it. (Bized)
The proper study of mankind is man.Alexander Pope
ANTHROPOLOGY the study of human beings, study of their physicalcharacter, evolutionary history, racial classification,historical and present day geographic distribution, grouprelationships, and cultural history
GEOGRAPHY the study of the location and distribution of living thingsand the physical environment in which they live
SOCIOLOGY the study of social customs, structures and institutionsand of the effects on individuals of participation in groupsand organisations
PSYCHOLOGY the study of mental processes and behaviour through theobservation and recording of how people relate to oneanother and the environment
POLITICAL SCIENCE the study of the functions performed by governments aswell as patterns in the behaviour of voters, politicalparties, pressure groups etc
ECONOMICS the study of the process through which people make aliving, the production and distribution of goods, theorganization of industries, banking, trade, and the use ofresources
Related to Human Sciences Linguistics Criminology International relations Business andmanagement studies Religious studies Archaeology History
Some aims of Human Sciences Knowledge about human behaviour and interaction insociety Understanding of influences on human behaviour Explain underlying patterns Understanding how decisions are made Predicting human behaviour Informing decisions
Particularity of human sciences Man is the subject and the student Compare Martian as studentThe carenginesmalfunctionwhen thelights gored!Wir verstehen!
Claims about Human and Social Sciences Human sciences permeated with values Concepts in social sciences are vague andimprecise Unavoidable interaction between the scientist andwhat he studies Human scientist cannot state and verify hypotheseswith precision and universality No social scientist can predict with any assurance
METHODOGLOGY Questionnaires and surveys Interviews Observation Gathering and interpretation of statistics Study of written sources (official records, books …) Study of artefacts Experiments
Issues in observation Surveys Scope and scale Sample size and choice Question(er) bias / loaded questions Quality of answers
Issues in observation Are you in favour of bringing back National Service?
Issues in Experimentation People as the subject / Interactionbetween scientist and subject Behaviour of people being observed Margaret Mead Case (the observedrespond to the expectations of theobserver) Hawthorne Effect (presence ofobservers produces a bias andunduly affects the outcome of theexperiment)
Issues in Experimentation Controlled or repeat experiments (impossible in almost allcases)
Issues in Experimentation Ethical Problems Milgram experiment Zimbardo experiment at Stanford University
Measurement and interpretation Can everything be measured satisfactorily? Thought in a child? Happiness? Economic data? The use of numbers and data Statistics ModelsIsaac Newton:“I cancalculate themotions ofheavenlybodies, but notthe madnessof crowds”
The Model 1 - The Credit Crunch"It was the failure to properly price …. risky assets thatprecipitated the crisis. In recent decades, a vast risk managementand pricing system has evolved, combining the best insights ofmathematicians and finance experts supported by major advances incomputer and communications technology. A Nobel Prize wasawarded for the discovery of the pricing model that underpins muchof the advance in derivatives markets. This modern risk managementparadigm held sway for decades. The whole intellectual edifice,however, collapsed in the summer of last year because the datainputted into the risk management models generally coveredonly the past two decades, a period of euphoria.“Dr. Alan Greenspan, US House of Representatives Committee on Government Oversight and Reform, October 23,2008
Measurement and interpretation Correlation v. Causation The Phillips curveWhen in the 1970s this failed to explain stagflation, Milton Friedmanargued that there were a series of different Phillips curves for eachlevel of expected inflation. If people expected inflation to occur, thenthey would anticipate and expect a correspondingly higher wagerise.
Correlation v. Causation Facebook users have lower overall grades than non-users, according to a survey of college students Students who supplement their studies withinteractive, game like computer animations retain amuch better understanding of a scientific conceptthan those who dont. Men with deep voices tend to have more childrenthan those who speak at a higher pitch, scientistssay.
Causation and social policy Tony Blair: tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime Feeding children a diet rich in fish could prevent violentand anti-social behaviour in their teens, according toresearch ….. which suggests the root causes of crimemay be biological rather than social. The study raisesmajor questions over the extent to which criminalsexercise free will, as well as fuelling fresh debate overwhether simple childhood interventions might be moreuse in preventing crime than blaming parents ororganising draconian crackdowns on crime.The Observer, Sunday 14 September 2003
Free Will - C’est écrit là-haut! How did they meet? By chance, like everyone else.What were they called? What does that matter toyou? Where were they coming from? From thenearest place. Where were they going? Who knowswhere they were going? What were they saying?The master was silent and Jacques was saying thathis captain in the army used say that all the goodand bad that happens to us down here on earth wasalready written up there.
Oedipus He knew (because of a prophecy)theat he would kill his father andmarry his mother To what extent did his knowledge ofthe prophecy affect his behaviourand choices? Why does he punish himself? Why does he blind himself as apunishment?
The Oedipus effect. “ …… the oracle played a most important role in thesequence of events which led to the fulfilment of itsprophecy. … For a time I thought that the existence of theOedipus effect distinguished the social from the naturalsciences. But in biology, too—even in molecularbiology—expectations often play a role in bringing aboutwhat has been expected. ”Karl Popper
Self fulfilling prophecy - psychology. A person who expects people to be friendly, may smilemore and thus receive more smiles A person expecting to be lucky, may enter many morecompetitions and thus increase their chances of winning. Children randomly allocated to a group labelled ‘bright’did better in an experiment than a similar group labelled‘less bright’ BUT you may also do your utmost to ensure a predictionmade by a psychologist does not happen!
Self fulfilling prophecy - Economics Told that a bank was in trouble, people rushed to take outtheir money thereby causing the bank to fail. Bear and Bull markets – expectations of market rises andfalls tend to make them rise or fall. Predictions of depression make people behave in a waywhich (at least) hastens it
Placebo and Nocebo A patient given a pill expects it to make him better(placebo) and often does In a classic nocebo experiment conducted in the early1980s volunteers were told that a mild electrical currentwould pass through their head, and although no electricalcurrent was used, two-thirds of the volunteerscomplained of a headache after the experiment.
The Purposes of Human Sciences Understanding of how people and societies work To make people or societies work better (or how we thinkthey should work) Involve predictions on the basis of which we make Personal choices Economic and social policy Business and management decisions
BUT are Human Sciences able to producereliable Laws?
… some of the reasons Confirmation bias Question(er) bias Difficulties in measurement Observation of people may affect their behaviour
.. and more reasons? Problem of (no) controlled experiments Human sciences often affected by moral issues Limitations on willingness or ability to experiment Human science suggests the ‘probable’ Uncomfortable with falsification