The Future of the Future

The Future of the Future Whither IT? Paul Kedrosky February 20, 2007

Some Discussion “What Ifs”
What if …
A lot of what we know is wrong
Corporate IT isn’t dead
Storage isn’t over
Microsoft doesn’t matter
Google isn’t all-powerful
Consumers aren’t that hard to market to
Telecom is set for a resurgence

Some Contrarian “What Ifs”
What if …
A lot of what is ‘hot’ isn’t
RSS
Photo sharing
Social networks
YouTubes of
Some things are gone forever
Binary apps
Siloed enterprise apps

Some Things to Look For
Lightweight modular software
Mash-ups using SOA versus monolithic enterprise apps
Short sales cycle – 3-9 months at most
Disruptive technology or business solution
Create new markets
Or, transform a $10B market to $1B
And the usual
People and market
Growth and momentum

Gartner 2007 Overview

Consumers: Pace of Diffusion

Consumer Technologies Took Walkman 10 years to reach same cumulative sales milestone!

Networking/Communications

Open Source

Traffic Changes
Significant increase in traffic
Increase in per-flow bandwidth
Increase in per-flow duration

Network Snapshot
Companies
Limelight CDN estimates 150Gbps traffic (just launched terrabyte network)
YouTube 20Gbps within first year, going to 80Gbps build just for near-term growth
Trends
Many analysts “conservatively” forecasting near-term traffic growth of 75% y-o-y

Surprised in the Enterprise

Misplaced Priorities?

Slow E2.0

Consumers & Mobile
By 2010 there will exist about 5 billion "mobile endpoints," or devices ranging from digital music players and camera phones to gaming consoles and Web-enabled cars.

Sensors & Ubiquitous Computing
Just as the personal computer was a symbol of the ’80s, and the symbol of the ’90s is the World Wide Web, the next nonlinear shift, is going to be the advent of cheap sensors.
-Paul Saffo, Institute for the Future

Online Advertising

Spam & Zombies

“Out There” Stuff
“ Data-aware” computing
Scientific workflows automatically migrate towards systems where the required datasets already reside or can be quickly obtained
High Throughput Genomics
Next generation sequencing technologies causing massive increase in the sheer volume of data available to researchers
A single lab machine produces around 1 billion bases per day
Data centers can’t keep up
Predictive and systems biology
Increasing trend toward data-driven drug discovery

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The Future of the Future

by pkedrosky on Feb 27, 2007

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