The Future of the Future Whither IT? Paul Kedrosky February 20, 2007

Some Discussion “What Ifs” What if … A lot of what we know is wrong Corporate IT isn’t dead Storage isn’t over Microsoft doesn’t matter Google isn’t all-powerful Consumers aren’t that hard to market to Telecom is set for a resurgence

What if …

A lot of what we know is wrong

Corporate IT isn’t dead

Storage isn’t over

Microsoft doesn’t matter

Google isn’t all-powerful

Consumers aren’t that hard to market to

Telecom is set for a resurgence

Some Contrarian “What Ifs” What if … A lot of what is ‘hot’ isn’t RSS Photo sharing Social networks YouTubes of Some things are gone forever Binary apps Siloed enterprise apps

What if …

A lot of what is ‘hot’ isn’t

RSS

Photo sharing

Social networks

YouTubes of

Some things are gone forever

Binary apps

Siloed enterprise apps

Some Things to Look For Lightweight modular software Mash-ups using SOA versus monolithic enterprise apps Short sales cycle – 3-9 months at most Disruptive technology or business solution Create new markets Or, transform a $10B market to $1B And the usual People and market Growth and momentum

Lightweight modular software

Mash-ups using SOA versus monolithic enterprise apps

Short sales cycle – 3-9 months at most

Disruptive technology or business solution

Create new markets

Or, transform a $10B market to $1B

And the usual

People and market

Growth and momentum

Gartner 2007 Overview

Consumers: Pace of Diffusion

Consumer Technologies Took Walkman 10 years to reach same cumulative sales milestone!

Networking/Communications

Open Source

Traffic Changes Significant increase in traffic Increase in per-flow bandwidth Increase in per-flow duration

Significant increase in traffic

Increase in per-flow bandwidth

Increase in per-flow duration

Network Snapshot Companies Limelight CDN estimates 150Gbps traffic (just launched terrabyte network) YouTube 20Gbps within first year, going to 80Gbps build just for near-term growth Trends Many analysts “conservatively” forecasting near-term traffic growth of 75% y-o-y

Companies

Limelight CDN estimates 150Gbps traffic (just launched terrabyte network)

YouTube 20Gbps within first year, going to 80Gbps build just for near-term growth

Trends

Many analysts “conservatively” forecasting near-term traffic growth of 75% y-o-y

Surprised in the Enterprise

Misplaced Priorities?

Slow E2.0

Consumers & Mobile By 2010 there will exist about 5 billion "mobile endpoints," or devices ranging from digital music players and camera phones to gaming consoles and Web-enabled cars.

By 2010 there will exist about 5 billion "mobile endpoints," or devices ranging from digital music players and camera phones to gaming consoles and Web-enabled cars.

Sensors & Ubiquitous Computing Just as the personal computer was a symbol of the ’80s, and the symbol of the ’90s is the World Wide Web, the next nonlinear shift, is going to be the advent of cheap sensors. -Paul Saffo, Institute for the Future

Just as the personal computer was a symbol of the ’80s, and the symbol of the ’90s is the World Wide Web, the next nonlinear shift, is going to be the advent of cheap sensors.

-Paul Saffo, Institute for the Future

Online Advertising

Spam & Zombies

“Out There” Stuff “ Data-aware” computing Scientific workflows automatically migrate towards systems where the required datasets already reside or can be quickly obtained High Throughput Genomics Next generation sequencing technologies causing massive increase in the sheer volume of data available to researchers A single lab machine produces around 1 billion bases per day Data centers can’t keep up Predictive and systems biology Increasing trend toward data-driven drug discovery

“ Data-aware” computing

Scientific workflows automatically migrate towards systems where the required datasets already reside or can be quickly obtained

High Throughput Genomics

Next generation sequencing technologies causing massive increase in the sheer volume of data available to researchers

A single lab machine produces around 1 billion bases per day

Data centers can’t keep up

Predictive and systems biology

Increasing trend toward data-driven drug discovery

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