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Off the Venture Map

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A presentation on the Lenox Globe, maps, YouTube, and the future of venture capital.

A presentation on the Lenox Globe, maps, YouTube, and the future of venture capital.

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Off the Venture Map Off the Venture Map Presentation Transcript

  • Off the Venture Map Paul Kedrosky October 12, 2006
  • Maps
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  • Hic sunt dracones
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  • Limits
  • 10 16 Each cell division represents an opportunity for disaster , for chaos to occur . The longer-lived the organism, the more likely it is that one cell eventually will lose the ability to collaborate with its neighbors in maintaining structure and function, and just start multiplying uncontrollably . -- Robert Weinberg, MIT
  • Julian Simon, 1932 - 1998
  • “ The traditional venture model seems to us to be broken.” - Steve Dow, Sevin Rosen Funds (NY Times, 10/7/2006)
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  • Media
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  • $145-billion 11% 1.6%
    • Pepsi: 10x in 5 years (to 10%)
    • General Mills: 2x in 1 year
    • Kraft: 2x in 1 year
    • Anheuser-Busch: 2x in 1 year (to 5%)
  • Source: TNS Media-Intelligence
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  • Water
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  • 500% increase over 10 years Fixed supply, exploding demand 20% have running water China’s per capita reserves: ¼ average
  • Source: Summit Global
  • Risks
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  • Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done. - Louis Brandeis
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  • Source: “Success and death on Everest,” American Alpine Journal (2003) 3.4% vs. 1.8%
  • Here there be dragons
  • [email_address]