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Iteration, Errors and the Entrepreneur
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Iteration, Errors and the Entrepreneur

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  • Transcript

    • 1. Ignorance, Iteration and the Entrepreneur Paul Kedrosky Apr 17/08
    • 2.  
    • 3. Four Postulates
    • 4. Postulate #1
    • 5.  
    • 6. Postulate #2
    • 7. Far better an approximate answer to the right question , which is often vague , than an exact answer to the wrong question , which can always be made precise . J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
    • 8. Postulate #3
    • 9. " What the deuce is it to me? You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work."                  -- Sherlock Holmes in "A Study in Scarlet", Arthur Conan Doyle
    • 10. Postulate #4
    • 11.  
    • 12. Ignorance Questions Focus Optimism
    • 13. How You Do What You Do
    • 14.  
    • 15.  
    • 16.  
    • 17. If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the intensities of hurricanes , I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive. Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
    • 18. Gorillas in our midst
    • 19.  
    • 20. Scratch Peripheral Perspective Data Gorillas Iterate
    • 21. Tomorrow is going to be wonderful since today, I do not understand anything . - Niels Bohr
    • 22. A challenge.
    • 23. [email_address]

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