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Iteration, Errors and the Entrepreneur

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  • 1. Ignorance, Iteration and the Entrepreneur Paul Kedrosky Apr 17/08
  • 2.  
  • 3. Four Postulates
  • 4. Postulate #1
  • 5.  
  • 6. Postulate #2
  • 7. Far better an approximate answer to the right question , which is often vague , than an exact answer to the wrong question , which can always be made precise . J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
  • 8. Postulate #3
  • 9. " What the deuce is it to me? You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work."                  -- Sherlock Holmes in "A Study in Scarlet", Arthur Conan Doyle
  • 10. Postulate #4
  • 11.  
  • 12. Ignorance Questions Focus Optimism
  • 13. How You Do What You Do
  • 14.  
  • 15.  
  • 16.  
  • 17. If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the intensities of hurricanes , I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive. Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
  • 18. Gorillas in our midst
  • 19.  
  • 20. Scratch Peripheral Perspective Data Gorillas Iterate
  • 21. Tomorrow is going to be wonderful since today, I do not understand anything . - Niels Bohr
  • 22. A challenge.
  • 23. [email_address]