Ignorance,   Iteration and the Entrepreneur Paul Kedrosky Apr 17/08
 
Four  Postulates
Postulate #1
 
Postulate #2
Far better an  approximate  answer to the  right question , which is often  vague , than an exact answer to the  wrong que...
Postulate #3
" What the deuce  is it to me? You say that we go round the sun. If we went   round the moon  it would not make a  pe...
Postulate #4
 
Ignorance Questions Focus Optimism
How You Do What You Do
 
 
 
If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the  intensities of hurricanes , I cannot just “collect data more frequent...
Gorillas  in our midst
 
Scratch Peripheral Perspective Data Gorillas Iterate
Tomorrow is going to be  wonderful  since today, I  do not understand anything .  - Niels Bohr
A challenge.
[email_address]
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Iteration, Errors and the Entrepreneur

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  • Iteration, Errors and the Entrepreneur

    1. 1. Ignorance, Iteration and the Entrepreneur Paul Kedrosky Apr 17/08
    2. 3. Four Postulates
    3. 4. Postulate #1
    4. 6. Postulate #2
    5. 7. Far better an approximate answer to the right question , which is often vague , than an exact answer to the wrong question , which can always be made precise . J. Tukey (1962), Annals of Mathematics and Statistics 33:1-67
    6. 8. Postulate #3
    7. 9. " What the deuce is it to me? You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work."                  -- Sherlock Holmes in "A Study in Scarlet", Arthur Conan Doyle
    8. 10. Postulate #4
    9. 12. Ignorance Questions Focus Optimism
    10. 13. How You Do What You Do
    11. 17. If I am interested in, say, the distribution of the intensities of hurricanes , I cannot just “collect data more frequently”: I will just have to wait for the next hurricane to arrive. Source: R. Rebonatto, Plight of the Fortune-Tellers (2007)
    12. 18. Gorillas in our midst
    13. 20. Scratch Peripheral Perspective Data Gorillas Iterate
    14. 21. Tomorrow is going to be wonderful since today, I do not understand anything . - Niels Bohr
    15. 22. A challenge.
    16. 23. [email_address]

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