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  • 1. PAOS Weather Discussion Hurricane Katrina
  • 2. Katrina’s Landfalls• Florida – Landfall at 6:30PM EDT Thursday August 25th on the Miami / Broward County line – Maximum winds 90 mph• Louisiana – Landfall at 6:10AM CDT Monday August 29th near Buras, LA – Maximum winds 140 mph• Louisiana / Mississippi – Landfall at 10AM CDT Monday August 29th near LA/MS border – Maximum winds 125 mph
  • 3. Florida• TD 12 - 5PM August 23rd• Tropical Storm Katrina - 11AM August 24th – Moving over warm SSTs (31 deg C) – Weak wind shear – Some dry air• Hurricane Katrina - 5PM August 25th – Cat 1, 75 mph winds – Landfall north of Miami at 630PM August 25th – Tracks further south than forecast – Only 7h over S. FL (mostly over the Everglades) – Emerges into Gulf of Mexico at 130AM August 26th
  • 4. Florida• Images – IR Satellite Loop – Visible Satellite Loop – Radar loop – Surface Observations• Impacts – 11 people killed – 1.45 million households without power • Expect 90% of power to be restored by Tuesday – Highway overpass collapsed in Miami
  • 5. Gulf of Mexico• Crossed into Gulf of Mexico at 130AM August 26th as a Category 1 hurricane (75 mph, 984 mb)• Forecast track not well handled initially – Loop of NHC forecasts – Forecasts until 11AM Friday had Katrina making landfall in the Florida panhandle – Forecasts over next 12 h shifted the forecast track to near New Orleans – Little changes in forecast track after this• Friday 11:30AM – Category 2 hurricane (98 mph, 971 mb)
  • 6. Gulf of Mexico• Saturday 5AM – Category 3 hurricane (115 mph, 971 mb) – Katrina was located in an environment that “cannot get much more conducive for strengthening” - NHC Forecast Discussion – Warm SST (near 90F) – Weak wind shear• Saturday 11AM – NHC discussion mentions possibility of Katrina becoming a Cat 5 hurricane• Sunday 2AM – Category 4 hurricane (144 mph, 935 mb)
  • 7. Gulf of Mexico• Sunday 8AM – Category 5 hurricane (161 mph, 908 mb) – Intensity difficult to forecast due to eyewall replacement cycles• Sunday 11AM – Maximum winds 178 mph• Sunday 5PM – Central pressure drops to 902 mb – 4th lowest pressure observed in the Atlantic Basin – Hurricane Gilbert, 1935 Labor Day hurricane, and hurricane Allen• Monday 5AM – Category 4 hurricane (150 mph, 915 mb) – Dry air entrained on west side – Erodes eyewall on south and southwest sides of hurricane
  • 8. Gulf of Mexico• Monday 6:10AM CDT – Landfall near Buras, LA – Maximum winds 140 mph• Monday 10AM CDT – Landfall near LA/MS border – Maximum winds 125 mph• Images – IR Satellite Image – Visible Satellite Image – Mobile, AL radar – Surface observations
  • 9. Mobile Gulf Port BiloxiNew Orleans
  • 10. Impacts• Mobile, AL – Peak winds 80 mph – Downtown Mobile under several feet of water – Dusk to dawn curfew in effect for Mobile – Oil rig broke free from mooring and crashed into US Hwy 98 bridge• Biloxi, MS / Gulfport, MS – 25+ foot storm surge – Coastal flooding up to 6 miles inland – 54 people killed in MS – I-10 impassable between Gulfport and Biloxi – Casinos along coast were destroyed (some moved 500 feet inland) • Loss of $500k / day in tax revenues to MS
  • 11. Impacts• New Orleans, LA – Levee on Lake Pontchartrain has been breeched (200 feet long) – Water levels are still rising in the city – ~80% of city is flooded with water up to 20 feet deep – Both airports are underwater – NWS reported total structural failure in New Orleans – Roof of Superdome damaged – Bridge on I-10 over lake was destroyed – Oil tanker grounded and leaking oil
  • 12. Impacts• New Orleans, LA – 50” Water main severed – Numerous gas leaks in the city – Repairs to water and electric could take 3-4 weeks – “City of New Orleans is in a state of devastation” - Mayor Ray Nagin – We expect “a significant amount of loss of life in the city” Mayor Ray Nagin – New Orleans evacuees “should stay away for at least a week to avoid a wilderness without power or drinking water that will be infested with poisonous snakes and fire ants” - CNN
  • 13. Impacts• General – 1.7 million households without power – Tens of thousands of people may be displaced for months – Early damage estimates of $10 to $25 billion – Disruption of oil production / supply • Price of oil rose to $70/barrel on Monday