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Scenarios & Branding | Patrick Collings 2011
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Scenarios & Branding | Patrick Collings 2011


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This is the presentation on brand strategy in turbulent socio-economic conditions that I gave at the 2011 Branding Conference in South Africa. A key part of the presentation was the use of scenario …

This is the presentation on brand strategy in turbulent socio-economic conditions that I gave at the 2011 Branding Conference in South Africa. A key part of the presentation was the use of scenario planning. I also spoke about Sagacite's work on rapid adaptive strategies. I have added a couple of notes to several of the more obscure slides to help viewers understand what I talking about.

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  • 1. scenarios as the foundation of brandstrategy in today’s volatile socio-economic and business environmentPatrick CollingsSagaciteBranding Conference8 - 9 June 2011 by mark visosky
  • 2. introduction to a newway of thinking about brand strategy photo by bart
  • 3. Business & brandingSocio-economic & business environmentManagement toolboxScenariosApplying scenarios
  • 4. business & branding
  • 5. brands have climbedthe internal ladderof importance tothe point that... photo by @rild
  • 6. brand strategy equalsbusiness strategy
  • 7. ...and if they were bic pensNote: Spoke about how deciding where you want to position a brand determines theentire organizational structure and operation. Example of expensive and cheap pens.
  • 8. “...many enlightened organizations are moving branding entirely away from communicationsand toward connecting strategy, culture, and a wider stakeholder involvement.” Nicholas Ind & Majken Schultz Strategy + Business
  • 9. socio-economic &business environment photo by tenisca
  • 10. the world is facing increased turbulence over the next decade and beyond Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World released by the National Intelligence Council
  • 11. caused by leadership change in emerging markets, major policy shifts by governments,increased armed conflict, interlinked economies, budget cuts by local and national government by antitezo
  • 12. VUCAvolatility uncertainity complexity ambiguity
  • 13. New Normality Feature Normal Economy Economy Economic Cycles Predictable Absent Upturns / Booms Definable ( Avg. 7 Years) Unpredictable / ErraticDownturns / Recessions Definable ( Avg.10 Months) Unpredictable / ErraticPotential Impact of Issues Low HighOverall Investment Profile Expansive, Broad Cautious, Focused Market Risk Tolerance Acceptance Avoidance Customer Attitudes Confident Insecure Customer Preferences Steady, Evolving Apprehensive, Flight to Safety taken from Chaotics
  • 14. relentless innovationNote: This slide and the following ones looked at howbrands are contributing to and experiencing volatility.
  • 15. demand for resultsNote: The example used here was how Google scrappedits non-performing virtual world after a couple of months.
  • 16. history is no guarantee of tomorrow
  • 17. and the realization thatpast glories are just that
  • 18. in endless conversations
  • 19. management toolbox photo by Robert S Donovan
  • 20. the management toolbox is limited photo by Robert S Donovan
  • 21. with management tools designed in a very different eraphoto by farmalidanzil
  • 22. often static in nature photo by DWRose
  • 23. photo by fotomeleand cookie cutter in design
  • 24. many belong to the rationalist school ofmanagement thought which works on theunderlying assumption that there is one best future solution
  • 25. is needed photo by SomeDriftwood
  • 26. starting with a new mindset by maessive
  • 27. one that accepts that we can’t predict the future and should concentrate on beingflexible enough to successfully engage it, in whatever form it may take
  • 28. “Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. Allyou can do is to give yourself the capacity to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that capability is the purpose of strategy” Lord John Browne, former CEO BP
  • 29. “Nearly all of the Best Global Brands have embraced the idea of constant change, evolution and innovation, and are able tocontinually meet the changing requirements of this customers.” Interbrand Best Global Brand 2010
  • 30. scenarios photo by drew herron
  • 31. the aim of scenariosis to reveal multiple,equally realistic and foreseeable futures photo by drew herron
  • 32. scenarios allow us to seebeyond the headlights photo by victor cavazzoni
  • 33. uncertainty forecast scenarios hopenow distance into the future
  • 34. and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad handimage by luna di rimmel
  • 35. photo by Templar1307 Roots in WW II military planning
  • 36. Note: Spoke about the early days of scenario planningand the work of Rand strategist Herman Kahn.
  • 37. took its name from the hollywood trash bin
  • 38. scenario planning’s most famous hourNote: Example of how Shell used scenarioplanning to deal with the 1973 oil crises.
  • 39. scenario planning intop 25 management tools
  • 40. approaches Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network The French School The Futures Group Wilson and Ralston Lindgren and Bandhold Reference scenarios Decision Strategies International Procedural scenarios Industry scenarios Soft creative scenarios
  • 41. crafting the scenario image by akbar simonse
  • 42. not at crisis timescenarios should never be developed at the moment of decision. they require time to be absorbed and embraced
  • 43. assemble theinvolvement,gain executive support and teamembrace diversity of opinion within and outside the organization
  • 44. learning to learn learning must be a continuousprocess and involve learning to re-perceive or reinterpret a situation
  • 45. start with a questionscenarios start by isolating the relevant decision that needs to be made
  • 46. gather the informationbe flexible as you gather broadly and narrowly,focus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected and look for disconfirming evidence
  • 47. identify the driversidentify the driving forces that influence the outcome of events: some will be obvious and others less so.
  • 48. composing the plots build the scenarios around four questions:what are the driving forces, what is uncertain, what is inevitable, how about this or that scenario
  • 49. the simple 4 choiceskeep the scenario exercise to four simple and realistic plots that lead to different choices for the original decision
  • 50. keep talking & watching developing and maintaining scenarios is an ongoing process of tracking developments, assessment, extrapolation and questioning
  • 51. and then the process often implodes image by jim sher
  • 52. applying scenarios photo by Simon Bleasdale
  • 53. applicability trend & opportunity identification brand positioning brand portfolios brand offerings organizational capacity
  • 54. rapid adaptive strategy
  • 55. near future budgetingin practice disposable factories customizable complexity dynamic pricing shadow portfolios
  • 56. portfolioBrand
  • 57. just like you have a shadowcabinet theoretically ready toassume power, shadow brandportfolios should be ready tobe implement at short notice
  • 58. luxury goods may have smaller volumepackaging to cater for the aspirational market in economic downturns
  • 59. automobile makers developing hybrid cars
  • 60. publishers training designers to design e-books
  • 61. “In the next few years, successful companies will distinguish themselves by managinguncertainity better than do their competitors.The very best will create uncertainity for their competitors to struggle with - and there will be hell to pay by those who fall behind.” George Stalk Senior Partner and Managing Director The Boston Consulting Group
  • 62. Note: Spoke about how computer and mobile companies not only have to worryabout socio-economic issues but also what game-changing offerings Apple releases.
  • 63. Ordnung braucht nurder dumme ein geniebeherrscht das chaos
  • 64. Order is needed onlyby fools, the genius controls the chaos