Youth 2012Piotr Arak, Adviser to the Minister of Administration and Digital Engagement Institute for Social Policy, University of WarsawWarsaw, 11 February 2012
You cannot talk aboutyoung people without talking about thefuture, and you cannot talk about the future without talking about young people
Why write a report on youth?• Poland and new challenges (historically unique moment)• Young people as an important social asset and opportunity for development• Resources of the older generation are coming to an end• Uniqueness of the young generation• Psychological uniqueness of the young age• Pressure of baby-boomers• Perspective of baby-bust
What is so special about the Polish youth?• Exceptional circumstances in which they were growing up (the post- transformation era)• Opening to Western inﬂuences culturally and economically• Post-modernity as the existing social order• Consumerism and ideology of success as the main cultural offer• IT revolution (freedom sphere)• Enormous human capital development• Prolonged youth and problems on the labour market• Crisis elements: • Complexities and tensions brought by the political transformation • Shortages prevailing in a emerging economy • Crisis of the global economy • “Lost generation syndrome” - a rebellious potential
Young people: a driver ofdevelopment, or a lost generation? • The Arab Spring • London riots • „Occupy” movement • The 1000 € generation • 40% unemployment • Anti-ACTA protests in Poland
Young people in Arab countries Country Population share of Employment share GDP per capita in under-30s of 15-24-year-olds (2008) purchasing power parity, $ thou., 2010 Algeria 56% 31% 7.1Saudi Arabia 61% 25% 23.7 Bahrain 48% 30% 26.8 Egypt 61% 23% 6.4 Yemen 73% 22% 2.6 Jordan 65% 20% 5.7 Libya 61% 27% 14.9 Morocco 56% 35% 4.8 Oman 64% 29% 26.2 Syria 67% 32% 5.1 Tunisia 51% 22% 9.5
Parents - children / social status • Field A’: aspirations of young people are very high, long education strategies, parents support their children with capital (better opportunities as compared to peers and themselves); • Field B’: aspirations are equally high or slightly lower, assumed education strategies are most often long but in fact they prove shorter (or of lower quality), parents instal ambitions into their children - lack of capital for fulﬁllment of all the objectives); • Field C’: aspirations are signiﬁcantly lower, but not low (especially in reference to consumption), lack of long education strategies, parents pass on to their children grievances and demanding attitudes (lack of intellectual, material, mental capital), taught pessimism and passive attitude.
Self-descriptions• The younger and the older are similarly determined to pursue their plans for future.• They differ in the distribution of "ascetic" versus those more "colourful", "sentimental" and "pragmatic" traits.
Life orientantions of young Poles• Minimalists, who dont have high ambitions and are content with peaceful and secure life, are on the margins (5% of young adults and 11.5% of younger youth).• Dreamers - with high ambitions to achieve afﬂuence, colorful and convenient life, but with little basis for success - are 20% of young people.• Those focused on bourgeois patterns and average status (conventionally ambitious) are the mainstream of young people from the upper age brackets (43.2%).• Outstandingly ambitious: Young people who are more often attracted by unconventional life patterns: colorful, eventful, with high priority attached to outstanding careers and sophisticated consumption (30.4%).• Uniquely ambitious - a combination of high consumption and status ambitions and holding dear non-material values (8.3% of the youth and 12.5% of young adults).
Why young people area driver of development• Today, the young mind a sense of responsibility and self- interest: they won’t begin to destroy the existing system.• They are bred in consumerism.• Their dream come true is not just a „house in the suburbs” – they are becoming more postmaterialistic.• They want to build happiness through stabilisation and the opportunities to have a choice of style of life• The 68’s revolution was possible thanks to a sense of crisis and the contrulture, now youth culture is mainstream• Know that Poland was through rougher times.
Internet• 2.5 bln users globally.• Young people are digital natives (mass-self- communication as a fact).• Young Poles are constantly on-line. They spend 17 to 20 hours a week on-line. They cannot do without the Internet and mobile phone.
The Internet - viewed by the adultswith suspicion - plays important roles in the lives of the youth: • A new type of culture has developed - a culture of participation • Helps to pursue ones passions (which does not have any institutional counterpart in real life) • Meets important social needs - builds relationships and a sense of belonging (which the real-life social environment is unable to offer) • A rendezvous place • A marketplace and • A political agora
Is the ACTA case a clash of generations? • “No to ACTA in No to ACTA in Poland Poland” FB proﬁle has Comment deleted by ACTA 220 thou. fans 50,00 • “Comment deleted by 37,50 ACTA” FB proﬁle has 180 thou. fans 25,00 • Most of the protesters are young people, 12,50 although the regulations affect also lifes of the 0 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ “adult” generationSource: http://blog.fanpagetrender.pl/?p=355
ACTA - a sickness in progress• No information• No consultation• Violating the one common virtue for every young person “freedom”• And freedom = internet• You can can do whatever you like but you can’t take my personal sphere of life from me
What did the government (s) do wrong?• After the 2011 “occupy” protests around the World, went back to business as usual• Only 1000 people in Warsaw protested in solidarity with the 15 October movement• 10 000 people walked in the Independence March• With a potential of mistrust enough social energy was established to “really do something”• ACTA initiated a potential of revolt seen in many other countries and young are consumers of culture
New "philosophy" of consuming• In the logic of consumerism, buying things or making certain use of them does not need to be a sign of materialistic attitude, although it has very crucial positioning meaning (the "to have" attitude tends to be displaced by the "to have in order to be" attitude). The consumer society sees to it that these choices apply primarily to the way of life and are not restricted to the appetite for having and using things.• From the philosophy of a young consumer: • What counts is not so much the drive to possess things as the philosophy of how to use them, and the related expression, symbolism • What matters is not how much and how you make for a living, but how much and how you spend the money • What is important is not how you work, but how you enjoy life and spend free time • The most important thing is choice, which is a valuable in itself; the act of choosing is even more important than what youve chosen• The opportunity to choose ones Self and experimenting with the choice (in which many things are important) are signs of freedom• This philosophy contributes to deﬁning many other life preferences, dilemmas and choices.
Intimacy and a new sentimental order• Romantic love and "two-pronged" relationships• "Going out with somebody" and "picking up"• Dreaming for an ideal partner and fearing a stable relationship• Progressing moral permissiveness - discernible in the scope of norms considered to be Catholic morals• Expanding scope of erotic exploration• At the same time, there is a growing trend towards radicalization of traditional views • Reducing the deﬁnition of family • Increasing disapproval for couples living without marriage • Decreasing approval for divorce • Increasing support for laws prohibiting abortion
Young women are different• Better educated• More determined to keep their position in the labour market• Have many dilemmas • Dilemma of maternity (children vs career) • Economic dilemma (work vs home) • Dilemma of personal fulﬁllment (time for her home vs time for herself) • Dilemma of freedom (marry or go on as a single person)• Young males, social mentality and institutional solutions have difﬁculties adapting to these circumstances
Education - differentiates but also creates opportunities Share of people withEducational ambitions of young people and the status of the family higher education in the population of 25-64 year-olds 30,00 22,50 15,00 7,50 0 1995 2009
Different work attitudes <D0E5<.0#9<2<1@# *+"# • Young people are less afraid of stress2<3C#-A#.079>-7#<7D#9.1099# $)"# and under-skilled or lower-status jobs 04:2-@407.#9.<?>2>.@# $$"# • What matters is appropriate income, :019-7<2#D0=02-:407.# $("# opportunities for personalB-1C#3-4:2>78#B>./#9C>229# $"# development and quick promotion 3-7=>7>073#B-1C#/-519# !"# • They are increasingly sending signals />8/#<5.-7-4@# "# that the time spent for work should &&"# not shatter the opportunities to :-99>?>2>.@#-A#:1-4-6-7# pursue ones interests, deprive of the %"# 2-78#=<3<6-7# right to rest or spend time with 109:03;52#-335:<6-7# $"# family .0203-445678# !"# • What they cherish is ﬂexible -./01# !"# organization of work. They are also ("# &("# ("# !("# $("# ,("# %("# *("# +("# )("# increasingly raising the issue of job <80D#&+F)## <22#<D52.9# stability and security
Start in life - barriers and risksSocial passivity of young people (NEET – not in employment, education or training, share in 15-24) &% "% !&% !"#$% !"% &% "% 8+ % C6 7% /0 -.,% 7 0% % >, % ;1 ,% ?- .8% C6 ,-0% *+. % E- D% 3-@ .,% -7 D% @ % @A I) 8% 1) % K6 % 2% 34, % <, % F2 A@% G) 80% N@ 87 +% @- =% E.8 8D% >) < % B) @A@ ., =., (@ +,* ;H 4-., 5@ ., 7 ., )2 ;*6 9: ;*6 K*.A 8D 56 * 4I ,- M@ ) - . 8 ?@ *,8 /J > . 4 D @ 4< ,8 8 I% ,8 L@ @8 , ) 1- ,8 , *, +, *, 4) 46 2 @ *, * () “Nesting” rate of “basement dwellers” – Poland and EU27 in age group 18-34 (%) Poland EU-27 EU-27 Poland 60,00 60,00 Temporary Total 45,00 contract 45,00 30,00 30,00 15,00 15,00 0 0 2007 2009 2007 2008 2009 2010
The bad news• In 2011, 74.8 million youth aged 15–24 were unemployed, an increase of more than 4 million since 2007.• The global youth unemployment rate, at 12.7 per cent, remains a full percentage point higher than the pre-crisis level. Globally, young people are nearly three times as likely as adults to be unemployed.• In addition, an estimated 6.4 million young people have given up hope of ﬁnding a job and have dropped out of the labour market altogether.• Even those young people who are employed are increasingly likely to ﬁnd themselves in part-time employment and often on temporary contracts. In developing countries, youth are disproportionately among the working poor.• As the number and share of unemployed youth is projected to remain essentially unchanged in 2012, and as the share of young people withdrawing from the labour market altogether continues to rise, on the present course there is little hope for a substantial improvement in near- term employment prospects for young people.
0 12,50 25,00 37,50 50,00 22 EU-27 20 Belgium 28 Bulgaria 19Czech Republic 14 Denmark 7 Germany 22 Estonia 28 Ireland 45 Greece 47 Spain 25 France 33 Italy 24 Cyprus 28 Latvia 31 Lithuania 16 Luxembourg 26 Hungary 13 Malta 7 barriers Netherlands 8 Austria 27 Poland 31 Portugal 24 Romania 16 Slovenia 36 Slovakia Professional start - 17 Finland 20 Sweden 22United Kingdom Unemployment rate - young people under 25 in EU27 countries and USA - December 2011 15 United States
Professional and private lifeambitions - the importance of family: how to balance?• The inactivity rate of women is too high (about 40% and 5% higher that EU average).• The difference between employment of men and women is -13%.• Uncertainty in family life decisions is almost the highest in all Europe.
The power of women Female PhD students in example• Better and better ﬁelds (as a % of all students) educated• Not only in humanities 70,00 but also in technical ﬁelds 64 66 52,50• The pay-gap (13%) 53 51 50 between men and women 35,00 is not as high as in other 33 EU countries 17,50• Our law is almost ideal 0 but the practice is not PhD total humanities economics technical medicine law
Social cohesion• “Elevator effect” – a distinctive feature of dynamic changes. This means that as a society we have taken the elevator to one or two ﬂoors higher – despite all previous and new differences we have more and our situation is better as far as our earnings, education, mobility, law, schooling, mass consumption are considered, but social inequalities have not disappeared – they have emerged at another level.• The differences related to lifestyle, tastes and culture, which will become the essential determinants of social status, cannot be eliminated as a result of generally higher standard of living and consumerism.• In the future people with good and poor education will undoubtedly be set even further apart.• Differences between rural and metro areas.• The disabled.• Language - a way to distinct from the adults.
Changes in the disposable income(PLN) of young households by the size of localities
Deprivation index in selected age groups – EU-27 in 2009Severe material deprivation rate – deﬁned as the enforced inability to pay unexpected expenses (equal to a monthly amountrecognized in a given country as the relative poverty line in the year preceding the survey), afford a one-week annual holiday awayfrom home, a meal involving meat or ﬁsh (or their vegetarian equivalent) every second day, the adequate heating of a dwelling,durable goods like a washing machine, color television, telephone (desktop or mobile) or car, being confronted with payment arrears(mortgage or rent, utility bills, hire purchase installments or other loan payments).
Risk behaviors Percentage of young suspects in acts of violence and aggression versus all suspects in this categoryPercentage of young suspects in thefts, robberies and criminal frauds versus all suspects in this category
Skills that will remain in demand • Computers are getting much better at pattern recognition, complex communication and many other skills.That may be good for businesses - but its not always good for individual employees, who may not be able to adapt as quickly as technology is advancing. • How can you prepare yourself for careers in a fast-changing economy ﬁlled with ever-faster, ever-smarter computers? • One key is realizing that there are still many things computers are no good at. • Theyre not creative, and they cant think "outside the box" • And theyre not very empathic. • These limitations point to some skills that people should acquire if they want to be successful using machines in the future, instead of competing against computers.Source: Erik Brynjolfsson (2012), Andrew McAfee, Winning the Race With Ever-Smarter Machines. In: MITSloan Management Review, Winter 2012 Vol. 53 No. 2.
Skills that will remain in demand • Applied math and statistics. Some think that the era of “big data” and powerful software means that fewer people have to master the gritty details of statistical analysis. This is deepły misguided. Knowing which analyses to conduct and how to interpret their results is more valuable than ever. We think Google chief economist Hal Varian was on to something when he said that "the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians”. • Negotiation and group dynamics. Management is one of the most durable professions, even as computers advance. It turns out that organizations need dedicated managers working with teams, advancing their agendas and working with their members. • Good writing. Computers can only generate the simplest most formulaic prose. While few people write for a living, lots of us do at least some writing. Getting good at it is a way to stand out from the crowd - and from the machines, • Framing problems and solving open-ended problems. Computers dont know whats wrong or where the next opportunities are. Solving open-ended problems entails both perceiving the challenge and addressing it. Its a major feature of primary and secondary educational systems like Montessori, which might explain why Montessori graduates are so common among the elite of the tech industry — the masters of racing with machines. • Persuasion. Does anyone seriously think that a great salesperson will be unable to ﬁnd work, even in a highly digitized economy? • Human interaction and nurturing. We are biologically wired to react to human attention and the human touch in a way that no machine can replicate. That means that jobs that involve human nurturing and, such interaction, such as child care and nursing, will continue to defy automation.Source: Erik Brynjolfsson (2012), Andrew McAfee, Winning the Race With Ever-Smarter Machines. In: MITSloan Management Review, Winter 2012 Vol. 53 No. 2.
Policy recommendations - women (the most important part)• An improvement to the conditions for developing the standing of women and the use of their potential multiplies the strength of developmental factors.• Promote equal treatment of women and men, which means persistent practical fulﬁllment of the existing legislation, including provisions on quota share of women in various representative bodies.• Disseminate new patterns of employment and development of working women, better adapted to different types of education an professional opportunities of women (including to support new skills of women who decide to return - after a break - to the labour market or without the experience of professional start, through special activation programs from the Labour Fund).
Policy recommendations - education• It is crucial to create conditions for any young person to have access to the educational path of their choice. This requires a policy of equal opportunities to enable any child three or more years old to participate in universal education and personalization of education processes in order to stimulate individual development of people who want to close their educational gaps or are highly talented.• What is necessary is to enable the acquisition of digital competences in schools (a digital educational revolution, which needs appropriate preparation of teachers and equipment, as well as school access to high-speed, broad-band Internet).• A good career counseling should be developed in middle schools, and vocational education should be dramatically improved and modernized to ﬁt well our economy, which would increase its quality and attractiveness for young people.• What is important is to improve the efﬁciency and quality of tertiary education, develop bursaries in a simple formula (loan for a students record book), scholarships for highly gifted students (so as to enable the best to study at foreign universities), for post-graduate students (to allow them pay their bills) and post-doctoral students. What is needed is also greater support for placements abroad and presence of foreign students in Poland.• The essence of continuing educational reforms is to diminish territorial differences, and thus inconsistencies in the access to quality education, and to reduce the role of burdens resulting from weak stimulation exerted by family environment. Polish schools should demonstrate a much greater ability to develop educational value added.
Policy recommendations - labour market• The Active Labour Market Policy programmes, which are ﬁnanced from the Labour Fund, should not be restricted, and should be made more ﬂexible so that to allow for employment of graduates in local government to carry out targeted projects, or university or school students in periods of specialist professional traineeships. At the same time, a duty should be introduced to employ trainees for a more stable period following the traineeship at the employers establishment.• Creating a single contract for all workers, with privileges increasing in separate stages (T. Boeri, P. Garibaldi)• A system of promotion of innovative entrepreneurship should be established, by increasing incentives for innovative "start-ups" and assigning appropriate grants for this purpose, thanks to which young micro-businesses would be able to contract research projects and implement innovations.• Conditions should be established to ensure adequate social insurance to people employed in untypical forms of employment, while not increasing excessively the cost of work. (social security and pension system)
Policy recommendations - family life• Promote and disseminate new solutions to support ﬂexible balance between different types of jobs and caring functions (which should involve both amendments to the Labour Code and new attitudes of employers who by this invest in job/life balance of workers).• Introduce to the education system solutions to universalize pre-school education to encompass at least 90% of children in each age from 3 to 5 year- olds, which will contribute to the equalization of educational opportunities for children and reduce alternative costs paid by the parents.• Develop a new model of support to healthcare for children in schools by availability of nursing care and better disease prevention (regular dental checkups, examination of the musculoskeletal system, and prevention of obesity in children, which requires organized and strong promotion of healthy nutrition).• Introduce changes to the system of family welfare beneﬁts to increase their availability in a real risk of being affected by poverty, but combined with support for recovering from poverty (to avoid durable trap of being dependent on welfare beneﬁts) and with targeting main measures on families with many children.
Policy recommendations - family life• Analyze the opportunities to channel more support for the increase of fertility rate by greater tax cuts for children - up from the third child in a family.• Promote cultural and mental change in order to increase the acceptance for solutions to support children and unions of people upbringing children, regardless of the formal side of the relations between the partners.• Make dramatic changes in caring for disabled children to strengthen their development potential by adequate education system (from nursery school to university) to allow in the future independence in life by taking up employment.• To improve housing conditions for the young generation, develop a new program to provide a better choice of housing for rent, organize ﬂexible forms of getting temporary housing from the social housing pool for a start in life at low income. One of the goals and objectives of the program will be also to make available long-term loans with greater conﬁdence for the creditworthiness of young customers and with potential guarantees from the State, or developing conditions for the availability of debt instruments to support mortgage loans and its granting.
Open government - preconditions for a civilizational leap forward • Create conditions, mainly regulatory ones and those related to the availability of services and content on the Internet (e- Government, open government) and to full openness of public resources in order to tap all the potential offered by digitization factors as carriers of innovation for young-generation innovators and for the general society. • Prepare for implementation programs to increase the accessibility of culture (books, development of the library network, digitization of cultural resources - the national and international canon) and adequately introducing cultural education to schools so as to increase the creativity potential of the society. • Create legal and material conditions for the implementation of a modern public mission in the media, which should be conducive to increased participation in culture, understanding of the world and participation in open public debates.
Open government - preconditions for a civilizational leap forward • Provide mechanisms for the participation and consultation in developing public decisions compatible with participatory democracy (in the small local scale - develop initiatives related to participatory budgets) with the use of modern communication technologies (networks), by building a model of open Government - and thus conditions for the young generation to shift from being a bystander to become an actor. • Provide new conditions for uninhibited activity of civil society and its institutions (including NGOs in their different forms), strengthening it through a long-term project to build a multi-annual program of ﬁnancial support to essential capital of these organizations (a new Civil Initiative Fund with budget grants on a scale matching the funding by citizens who deduct 1% from their taxes for the activity of social initiatives). • Develop a new way for the functioning of real youth participatory organizations in different levels and in different areas, assigning them real tasks to accomplish, thus supporting the government coordination of activities for the young generation.
Intergenerational solidarity• Openness• Dialog• Appreciating the historic differences (the Solidarity movement and the time of transformation)• Being aware of the “technological gap”• CRUCIAL: enabling an effective start to adult life by adequate policy
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