IET Clerk Maxwell lecture 19 Jan 2012
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IET Clerk Maxwell lecture 19 Jan 2012

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"Smart Energy - now its personal". ...

"Smart Energy - now its personal".
(Watch talk video at http://conferences.theiet.org/clerk-maxwell/about/index.cfm).
A talk to the Institution of Engineering and Technology about how upcoming energy innovations will change how we consume energy in the home.

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  • “National energy”
  • In each, we’re far away from physical limits of how little energy is needed to do the job.There is a limit to:how hot our houses need to behow cooked our foodhow many hours TV we can watchThose limits – plus pain of increasing energy cost – might tame Jevons.
  • More we make, more we consumeof energy and raw materials
  • Jevons ParadoxImproving efficiency of a process can increase use of energy & raw materialsTragedy of the CommonsWhat’s good for me is bad for everyone elseEuphoria of the CommonsWhat’s good for me is good for everyone else

Transcript

  • 1. Smart Energy – now it’s personal Pilgrim Beart MIET 19th January 2012 pilgrim@beart.org.uk pilgrimbeart
  • 2. Who am I• Computer Engineer• Serial Entrepreneur• Founded AlertMe – Platform for the Smart Home – Focussed on Home Energy Management• Tonight: How home energy is changing
  • 3. Tonight1 2 3
  • 4. The national energy balance Supplies Demands
  • 5. UK Energy
  • 6. National energy• “Sustainable” simply means “things you can keep doing”: – Finite Source: 2bn years’ fossil fuel used in hundreds of years – Finite Destination too: CO2• We take energy supplies for granted – Reliable, Affordable – A tribute to 20th-century engineers• Exciting things happening on supply side – Wind, Nuclear, and one day Fusion• …but need much more change, faster – 2010 emissions flat, not falling (despite recession) – Deeper cuts needed to meet carbon budgets:¶ • 34% reduction by 2020 • 80% reduction by 2050 (vs. 1990 levels)• Can do more – By addressing the demand side – At low cost (even at negative cost) ¶ According to the independent Committee on Climate Change, in their 3rd Progress Report to Parliament - 30 June 2011
  • 7. IMPORTEXPORT Source: House of Commons Library
  • 8. UK consumes ~200GW 30% in homes
  • 9. Electricity supply becoming variable and undispatchable Wind is variable on many different timescales Result: No longer can Supply just follow Demand Demand must start to adapt to Supply Source: Pöyry Source: van der Hoven
  • 10. Home Comforts todayHow much energy do we use? Where does it come from? Where does it go to?
  • 11. Average UK home consumes 2.7kW
  • 12. Today: Energy source and CO2 UK annual averageEnergy Source (kW average) Emissions (kgCO2) Electric 0.38 Electric 1650 Gas Gas 2.34 4100 Source: USWITCH JUNE 2008 UK grid 500gCO2/kWhe Natural Gas 200gCO2/kWh
  • 13. Today: Annual energy cost: £1,036 Typical UK home 2011 Lighting Elec bill £528 Appliances Space Heating Hot Cooker Water Gas bill £508 (inc. shower) Source: AlertMe ADELE tool, based on UK govt stats
  • 14. Today: Electricity use by appliance 8,000 HOME 7,000 COMPUTING 6,000 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 5,000 LIGHTktoe 4,000 3,000 COLD 2,000 WET 1,000 COOKING 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: DECC
  • 15. Today: UK Heating• 10m homes have neither modern controls nor thermostatic radiator valves1• 47% can’t program their controls2• Interaction: – If cold, increase thermostat/timings until not cold – No visibility into cost consequences – So nothing driving you to turn it down again Sources: 1 BERR Heat and Energy consultation 2008 2 YouGov research of 2,085 people in GB conducted on behalf of PassivSystems, April 2010
  • 16. UK home average temperature … but we haven’t increased our thermostats from 12°C to 18°C! We’re heating more rooms, for longer. Source: BRE domestic energy fact file 2008
  • 17. Today: Daily domestic profile UK 2011 Solar PV generation (summer) Heat demand (winter) Electrical Load00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00 Sources: EA Technology EU PV GIS
  • 18. Today: Home energy visibilityQ: How much am I using?Q: Where is it going?Q: What can I do to reduce it?
  • 19. Recap: Home Energy Today• Consumption: Invisible!• Controls: Incomprehensible!• Electricity: Big increase in Gadget consumption• Gas: Big increase in Average heating temperature• Energy prices rising (unsteadily) – Increasing pressure to act• So… what? • First: insulate
  • 20. Coming to a home near you
  • 21. Coming to a home near you• New energy technologies: – for Electricity & Heat – Creating and Managing them – How we’ll interact with them• Negawatts• Consumer Gateway
  • 22. Electricity from Solar Photo-Voltaic (PV) 13p (and rising) per unit imported 21p per unit generated (from Dec 2011) 3p per unit exported• As Subsidy falls …. and Grid prices rise (therefore less relevant) (therefore more painful to import electricity)…it increasingly pays to use your own electricity
  • 23. Heat: capture & pump• Capture with Solar Thermal – Engineers care about efficiency – Consumers care about up-front cost!• Heat Pump – Theoretical COP of 4+ – UK trial results not nearly so good: Source: Energy Saving Trust
  • 24. Thermal stores Drake Landing Solar Community, Alberta Credit: Natural Resources CanadaDaily Annual
  • 25. microCHP• Generating electricity creates “waste” heat – Do it at home and it’s no-longer waste• Combined Heat & Power for the home• Natural Gas  Electricity + Heat Baxi ecoGen e.g. Stirling Engine Fuel cell
  • 26. Intelligent Heating More Less Heat More Heat Hot WaterUser instructions Step 1: Ignore it Step 2: Press one of 3 buttons (exceptionally) Image: WattBox
  • 27. Intelligent Heating• Occupancy Modern programmable thermostat (fixed time & temp pattern) 20 C SAVINGS• Physiology Intelligent Heating learns and reacts to occupancy 15 C and occupants’ E G• Psychology physiological and psychological needs 10 C N I G E T L U N V E N N I G H C I H U T T H N P G 5C improves Time of Day all three iPod music player Nest thermostat by Tony Fadell by Tony Fadell
  • 28. NegaWatts“The cheapest Watt is the one you don’t have to generate in the first place” (Amory Lovins) Watts NegaWatts Supplies Demands Onshore wind generation Intelligent Heating Cost: €50/MWh generated Cost: €8/MWh saved Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Research Note Assumptions: 10% household energy saved over 10 year lifetime. “Closing the gap: grid parity for onshore wind” i.e. saves 1 year which is 23MWh. Costs €200 to fit. 2011 Global average levelised cost.
  • 29. Energy Efficiency Feed-in Tariff?• “Savings Aggregator” paid to get us to save – Works on large groups – Might be utility, community, company etc.• SA free to use whatever means they like: – Giving advice – Installing hardware – Rewards, competitions….• Rapid and cheap to deploy• Consumers have a rational incentive anyway – (lower bills) – But we aren’t rational, so we don’t!
  • 30. Co-ordinating it all• Imagine a scenario: Bob’s day. – Smart Meter (with Time of Use tariff) – Solar PV generation on his roof – Washing-machine has a load ready to wash – When should wash start? Who decides?• Early visions of Smart Grid were Soviet-style – Demand Response: pulling a big lever centrally – But Utilities don’t want to manage consumer appliances – And Consumers don’t want that either• Smart Grid may emerge bottom-up – LCNF & TSB trials exploring feasibilities – Price-driven? Define a set of policies for your home, e.g. • Wash my clothes for no more than £0.20/wash • Ensure my EV is charged by 8:00am every morning• Challenge will be to make all this truly “plug and play”
  • 31. How will consumer react to all this?• We are an integral “component” of the system• Bakersfield CA, Victoria Australia, Netherlands – SM rollout issues: Unhappy with privacy/pricing• What do we need to do to shift consumption? – Engineering + Policy• Behavioural Psychology – Are we individuals or social? – Habits are hard to break
  • 32. Behavioural ChangeSavings TargetActual Savings? Source: BEN Energy AG
  • 33. UK Smart Meter rollout• Cost £10bn, Benefit: £15bn (?)• 5m installs/year = 19,000 per working day! Source: Impact study, DECC 2011
  • 34. UK Smart Meter architectureSmart Gas Meter Smart Electricity Meter In Home Display (IHD) Drives sustained savings of 8%* Comms Hub • Appliances • Services • Internet … • Future stuff! Consumer Gateway DCC *2011 Empower Demand study by VaasaETT
  • 35. The Consumer Gateway • Co-ordinates the home • Puts Home Energy Management where your attention already is, i.e. Online • Opens the door to future energy servicesSource: http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/03/mobile-to-overtake-desktop-in-eu-by.html
  • 36. Gateway enables Data Analytics£31.95 Top Tip Top Tip Top Tip
  • 37. Summary• Sustainability isn’t optional – In a Finite world, we’re living beyond our means• Need to (and can): – Reduce demand. NegaWatts can be cheaper & faster. – Adapt demand to supply• 2020’s lifestyle with 1970’s consumption• Efficiency is addictive – As a consumer • “What’s good for me is good for everyone else too” – As an engineer • Beyond just Efficiency to Parsimony
  • 38. Engineering is about people• Consumers’ choices determine success/failure – Put consumers at the centre of our thinking – Simplicity is vital• Explain to consumers – And learn from them• Ensure they really benefit – Design, implement, measure – repeat
  • 39. ReferencesThree must-read books:• Sustainable Energy – without the Hot Air by David MacKay http://www.withouthotair.com/• Sustainable Materials – with both eyes open by Julian Allwood et al http://www.uit.co.uk/sustainable-materials• How Bad are Bananas by Mike Berners Lee http://howbadarebananas.posterous.com/Other references:• Deeper cuts needed: Third progress report 2011 by Committee on Climate Change http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/3rd-progress-report• Energy Imports and Exports, House of Commons Library http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN04046.pdf• Energy Flow Chart 2010 by DECC http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/flow/flow.aspx• Impact of Intermittency - How Wind Variability could change the shape of the British and Irish electricity markets, July 2009 by Pöyry Energy Consulting http://www.poyry.com/linked/group/study• Home temperature rise BRE domestic fact file 2008 http://www.bre.co.uk/filelibrary/pdf/rpts/Fact_File_2008.pdf• Home temperature rise (a contrasting view) http://www.esrc.ac.uk/_images/Shipworth_26_Jan_09_tcm8-2390.pdf• Framework for evaluation of Smart Grids, consultation document for Ofgem by Frontier Economics and EA Technology http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Networks/SGF/Documents1/RPT-STC-%20SGCBA%20final1%20-181111.pdf• Photovoltaic Geographical Information System daily output for a 2.8kW system located around Leeds, UK, available at European Commission PV GIS http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/• 47% of consumers do not know how to program their Heating systems http://www.passivsystems.com/productPdfs/HomesOnly/Field_Trial.pdf• 10m homes do not have modern boiler controls or TRVs http://hes.decc.gov.uk/consultation/download/index-5469.pdf• Getting Warmer, a field trial of heat pumps, by the Energy Saving Trust http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Publications2/Generate-your-own- energy/Getting-warmer-a-field-trial-of-heat-pumps• Electricity use by appliance http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Statistics/publications/ecuk/269-ecuk-domestic-2010.xls• Rise in consumer electronics energy consumption: London-Loughborough Centre for Doctoral Research in Energy Demand http://www.lolo.ac.uk/project/view/project/54• EE FiT: Decarbonisation on the Cheap, Dustin Benton, Green Alliance http://www.green- alliance.org.uk/uploadedFiles/Publications/reports/Decarbonisation_on_the_cheap_dble.pdf• IHD’s drive 8% savings, Empower Demand by VaasaETT http://www.esmig.eu/press/filestor/empower-demand-report.pdf• UK Smart Meter Impact Study, DECC 2011 http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/Consultations/smart-meter-imp-prospectus/1485-impact-assessment- smart-metering-implementation-p.pdf
  • 40. Smart Energy – now it’s personal Pilgrim Beart MIET 19th January 2012 pilgrim@beart.org.uk pilgrimbeart
  • 41. BACKUP
  • 42. “We basically have 3 choices:1) Mitigation2) Adaptation3) SufferingWe’re going to do some of each.The question is what the mix will be.” John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Obama
  • 43. © Guardian News & Media Ltd 2011. Reproduced with permission. Estimated cost of FiTs in financial year 2011-2012 (£100m, according to Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May 2012)
  • 44. Tesla: ACEdison: DC War of the Currents 18.00‘DC’, Fast-moving, 16.00Energy Increasing ICT/FUTURE GADGETS 14.00‘Always on’ ICT 12.00 Reduced ICT/High Avg KHW per day ELECTRONICS 10.00 AC mains ICT Electronics LIGHTING ICT Lighting 8.00 Other ELECTRONICS Cold 6.00 LIGHTS Wet Off billAC, Intermittent use COLDEnergy ‘decreasing’Slow moving goods COLD Off peak Cooking 4.00 WET WET 2.00 COOKING COOKING 0.00 AC Base To Be AC To Be DC Saved To Be Savings View
  • 45. Storing electricity as heat500°C -160°C Round-trip efficiency ~80% (similar to pumped hydro) Image courtesy of Isentropic Ltd.
  • 46. Trouble in the neighbourhood 243VAC 216VAC CHP HP EV EV
  • 47. UK Smart Meter architecture
  • 48. Energy data Smart Data Smart Data Engine Customer Value Pre-smart meter OCCUPANCY and Smart meter MODEL In-home data THERMAL LOSS MODELCustomer-supplied data GAS ANALYTICS APPLIANCE MODEL
  • 49. Taming Jevons• Jevons Paradox: – Increased efficiency has increased consumption – (in a world of apparently inexhaustible supply)• But now finite resource (and sink) enforces a ceiling on consumption• Time to follow the principle of “Parsimony”?
  • 50. What can we do before a Smart Grid?• Lots!• RLTec• Interesting experiments – Italy: 3kW or 6kW link changes behaviour
  • 51. ??Reflections
  • 52. Moore’s Law http://www.singularity.com/charts/page67.html
  • 53. The Learning Curve aka Experience Curve• Moore’s Law is just a special case• The more we make, the cheaper it gets
  • 54. Aircraft production Source: C. Lanier Benkard, American Economic Review 2000
  • 55. Japanese Beer Production (1951 – 1968) 0.05Decrease in Retail Price 0.5 1000 10000 100000 Industry Accumulated Volume Source: William D Eggers, Deloittes, after Wally Rhines
  • 56. Steam turbine generators http://www.vectorstudy.com/management_theories/experience_curve.htm
  • 57. The 1st Industrial Revolution Source: Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air, p19
  • 58. LCOE from Onshore Wind Turbines 1000 500 Denmark and Germany Global 100 50 14% 1984 1990 2000 2004 2011 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 MW LCOE = Levelised Cost of Electricity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool
  • 59. Solar PV Learning Curve Ken Zweibel, GW Solar Institute, George Washington University
  • 60. Moving from T1 to T21st Industrial Revolution 2nd Industrial RevolutionI = P x A x T1 I=PxA Paul & Anne Erhlich “the Population Bomb” 1968. T2 I = Environmental Impact P = Population A = Affluence T = Technology After Ray Anderson of Flor
  • 61. References• FiTs costs per year by Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion May 2011 http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper145.pdf• Moore’s Law is just a special case of the Learning Curve: “Moore’s Law is Unconstitutional” presentation by Wally Rhines of Mentor Graphics 2005 http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/INSTATSpri ngMicroPForum051705.pdf• Learning Curve in Aircraft production: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~lanierb/research/Learning_and_Forgetting_A ER.pdf• Learning Curve in Solar PV http://solar.gwu.edu/index_files/Resources_files/CostCompKZ.pdf• T1 and T2. Ray Anderson TED Talk http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_anderson_on_the_business_logic_of_susta inability.html