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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other SideFebruary, 2010 ,[object Object],Presented by: ,[object Object],Morris  Segall, President ,[object Object],SPG Trend Advisors,[object Object]
THE ECONOMY,[object Object]
Gross Domestic ProductQ1 2001 – Q4 2009,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,[object Object]
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2008 – Q4 2009,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,[object Object]
Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World 2007 – 2011*,[object Object],The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery.  For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession on the expiration of government stimulus later in 2010,  the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries.  ,[object Object],*2008/09 data are actual ,[object Object],Source:  International Monetary Fund,[object Object]
S&P Reported Operating Earnings for Listed CompaniesQ1 2000-Q4 2009*,[object Object],Source: Standard & Poors,[object Object]
Industrial Production January, 2008 - December, 2009,[object Object],% decline Jan. 08- Dec. ’09: 10.2%,[object Object],Source: Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
Capacity Utilization by Status of ProductionJanuary, 2008 – December, 2009,[object Object],Source: Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
Manufacturers Orders & ShipmentsExcluding TransportationJanuary, 2008 – December, 2009,[object Object],Source: Census Bureau,[object Object]
Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm)January, 2006 – January, 2010,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector GroupsDecember, 2007 – January, 2010,[object Object],The loss of jobs is pervasive throughout the entire economy and has not spared previously immune professional , executive and managerial  positions. This has been as much, if not more, a white collar, middle class recession.,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,[object Object]
Initial Unemployment Claims January, 2009 – January, 2010,[object Object],Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new  job losses  rose dramatically in the first quarter of 2009.  The trend of new job losses has been declining since then but reversed to the upside  in January. The absolute level of new job loss remains high.  ,[object Object],Source:  Department of Labor,[object Object]
Continued Unemployment Claims December, 2006 – January, 2010,[object Object],Source:  Department of Labor,[object Object]
Number of Unemployed on Federal Extended Benefit ProgramsMay, 2008 – January, 2010,[object Object],Source: Department of Labor,[object Object]
Retail Sales Less Food and Fuel September, 2007 – December, 2009,[object Object],Consumer  CreditQ3 2006 – November, 2009,[object Object],Consumer spending stabilized in the second quarter and improved in the third. Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending had been declining and the consumer has been paying down outstanding debt. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the  reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings  are positive for the  economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term.,[object Object],Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
 National Saving Rateas Percentage of Personal Disposable IncomeQ1 2005 – Q4 2009,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis,[object Object]
New Home Sales Units Sold ,[object Object],v. Length on Market ,[object Object],April, 2006 - December, 2009,[object Object],Existing Home Sales v. Length on MarketApril, 2006 - December, 2009,[object Object],Housing sales have improved since March, 2009 and inventories have declined, particularly in new home construction. The improvement in housing reflects the government’s buyer tax credit, the cutback in new home construction, much reduced home prices and lower mortgage interest rates.   ,[object Object],Source:  (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau ,[object Object]
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 2006 – November, 2009,[object Object],Source: Standard and Poor's,[object Object]
Conference Board Consumer Confidence2005 – January, 2010,[object Object],Source: Conference Board,[object Object]
Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels*,[object Object],Q2 2006 – Q3 2009,[object Object],Source: Mortgage  Banker’s Association,[object Object],*CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac).  The percentage of  loans that are 30-days delinquent.  The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.,[object Object]
Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions,[object Object],Q2 2007 –Q3 2009,[object Object],Source: Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy  and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, 2009, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high.,[object Object],Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,[object Object]
Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. DollarsFebruary, 2005 – February, 2010,[object Object],Source: Energy Information Administration,[object Object]
Nominal Broad Dollar Index* August, 2000 – February, 2010,[object Object],	* Broad Dollar Index:  a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.,[object Object],Source:  Federal Reserve Board,[object Object]
THE GOVERNMENT’S  RESPONSE,[object Object]
Money Supply (M2): January, 2007 – December, 2009,[object Object],Source: Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2012*,[object Object],*2010-2012 data are projections,[object Object],Source:  Congressional Budget Office,[object Object]
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank CreditJune, 2008 – February, 2010,[object Object],Source: Federal Reserve Bank,[object Object]
Federal Fund Rates, ,[object Object],January, 2008 - February, 2010,[object Object],3-month LIBOR rates lent in $US ,[object Object],January, 2008 - February, 2010,[object Object],The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending.  The Fed  has indicated  it will continue to keep interest rates low for the time being  but  it will have to raise interest  rates when the economy strengthens.,[object Object],Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association,[object Object]
Where are the opportunities?,[object Object],Healthcare ,[object Object],Education,[object Object],Worker Retraining,[object Object],Agriculture,[object Object],Energy Conservation,[object Object],Environmental Solutions ,[object Object],Electric Power,[object Object],Transportation – Increase Mass Transit,[object Object],Exports,[object Object],Water Conservation – New Supplies and Recycling,[object Object],U.S. Government Procurement and Outsourcing – Base Realignment Program (BRAC),[object Object],Real Estate – Recycle and Rehab Existing Commercial and Residential Property,[object Object]
Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors,[object Object],Source:  Recovery.gov,[object Object]
Conclusions	,[object Object],The deep and protracted recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007 ended in the third quarter of 2009 and recovery accelerated in the fourth quarter thanks to federal stimulus, increased factory orders and reduced inventory liquidation.,[object Object],The continuation of government stimulus is expected to lead to further GDP growth in the first half of 2010 but at lower growth rates from the outsized gain in Q’4, ‘09.  ,[object Object],Second half 2010 economic growth will depend on contributions from the private sector and job creation.,[object Object],Emerging industrialized economies, led by accelerated growth in China, are outpacing the U.S. in economic recovery and are poised to grow faster than the U.S. in 2010.,[object Object]
Conclusions continued,[object Object],Despite government stimulus the U.S. economy still faces near term economic pressures which include: ,[object Object],high cost and reduced availability of credit,[object Object],improving but continued low level of corporate profits,[object Object],continuing high levels of unemployment,[object Object],continued weak levels of corporate capital and consumer spending,[object Object],severe reductions in state and local government spending and eroded municipal financial strength ,[object Object],continued credit pressures in residential housing and consumer lending extending to commercial real estate markets and corporate lending,[object Object]
Conclusions continued,[object Object],After an expected cyclical recovery in 2010-2012, we believe longer term socio-economic issues facing this country will result in slower future economic growth for the United States featuring reduced growth in consumer spending, high levels of national debt and increased entitlement spending.,[object Object],In addition, the availability and cost of credit, particularly to consumers, will be more restricted and expensive in the future, further curtailing the growth in private sector spending longer term.,[object Object]
Thank You,[object Object],You can always reach me at msegall@spgtrend.com,[object Object],Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 ,[object Object],Please contact us when you require economic and capital markets research & policy analysis.,[object Object],Further information available at www.spgtrend.com,[object Object]

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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side February 2010

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