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Phil McKinney - A 20-year Outlook

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These are the slide used at a speech in Shanghai on May 9, 2007. The presentation lays out a vision for the future of technology (specifically for mobility) for 20 years. You may not agree with the …

These are the slide used at a speech in Shanghai on May 9, 2007. The presentation lays out a vision for the future of technology (specifically for mobility) for 20 years. You may not agree with the vision. The objective is use this as a catalyst for conversations.

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  • 1. 20 Year Outlook Philip McKinney podcast@killerinnovations.com
  • 2. Rewind: 1987 6/21/2007 2
  • 3. Freeze-frame: Today 6/21/2007 3
  • 4. Fast-Forward: Tomorrow 2027 6/21/2007 4
  • 5. What is going to change? Social Dynamics • Personal Entertainment • Intelligent Networks • Gadgets • Ubiquitous Content • 6/21/2007 5
  • 6. Social Dynamics media experiences converge [2010] Mediascape-like experiences enable the enhancement the physical and of virtual entertainment overlays to physical world scenarios for gaming and interactive tourism virtual worlds will virtual collaboration [2015] blur Globalization will drive the need for virtual collaboration (leverage the best expertise wherever it is) Second Life communities [2020] Virtual environments will be highly usable, personalized, and preferred for interaction and community building for lifestyle and business value. virtual communities gain legal status [2025] Virtual communities will gain recognition as distinct entities separate from the physical world with its unique needs for rights, privacy and law. 6/21/2007 6
  • 7. Personal Entertainment smart TV’s [2007] Digital TV’s are “always connected” and offer a media and multitude of movie, music, gaming, and interactive entertainment through new content providers. entertainment smart house [2015] with no Intelligent devices in the home will seamlessly interact with each other and share personalities boundaries content anywhere and any device [2020] Content will be dynamic and accessible via any device or multitude of devices wherever the users have a desire. entertainment at-will [2025] Personal entertainment will be driven by desire with little or no consideration for time, location, context, or technology…it just happens when we want it. 6/21/2007 7
  • 8. Intelligent Networks [2010] always connected Seamless sessions through smart hand-off between overlapping network boundaries seamless always federated networks connected [2015] The Internet will be a concatenation of federated connectivity networks with seamless access and content across all network boundaries. mesh networks everywhere [2020] Anypoint-to-anypoint networks will be commonplace providing peer-to-peer access to all content in cities, communities, homes, and BANs (Body Area Networks). the pervasive network [2025] All static, nomadic, and mobile entities will be connected and able to interact in real-time. Interaction will be people-people, machine-machine, people- machine. 6/21/2007 8
  • 9. Gadgets mobile broadband [2010] Handheld and portable devices possess ubiquitous connectivity to cellular and broadband networks. always personal the new personal computing [2015] in all ways People’s new work+play lifestyles will incorporate personal computing devices for all aspects: health, finance, entertainment, business, communicating, recreation. strong-specific [2020] While there may be a few multi-function (i.e., weak- general) devices, most will be purpose built strong- specific that will perform 1-2 functions in people’s lives. cognitive devices [2025] People will have numerous network-aware, behavior- aware devices in their lives with interface and interaction via natural speech and motor methods without keyboards or mice. 6/21/2007 9
  • 10. Ubiquitous Content programmed and online content [2010] Scheduled cable and broadcast programming is increasingly offered online and over mobile networks. liquid media open networks [2015] Walled gardens and closed/controlled networks have migrated to open, QoS-aware, service-rich networks. Games personalized advertising [2020] Advertising is desired due to personalized, contextual, Movies and rich integration with main media and content. Music on-demand content [2025] Over-the-air broadcast content has been displaced TV largely for unicast, multi-cast, and peer-to-peer content with on-demand access. Scheduled programming has given way to location and persona context awareness. Photos 6/21/2007 10
  • 11. Concerns and Issues Pervasiveness of connectivity elevate privacy • concerns Communications and information overload will • be the norm Always-connected and always-on capabilities • will be advantageous . . . but so will control 6/21/2007 11
  • 12. Contact for Phil McKinney: Email: podcast@killerinnovations.com Blog: www.philmckinney.com Podcast: www.killerinnovations.com 6/21/2007 12