Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing)
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Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing)

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A guide to the key dynamics of the mobile ecosystem today and in the next 3 years. Opportunities across the ecosystem plus the strategic importance of developers, platforms and software DNA.

A guide to the key dynamics of the mobile ecosystem today and in the next 3 years. Opportunities across the ecosystem plus the strategic importance of developers, platforms and software DNA.

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Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing) Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics (CTO Briefing) Presentation Transcript

  • 1 Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics - CTO Briefing Paul Golding May 2011 http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2011Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Why listen to this guy? 2 Paul G Key numbers: Key roles: 21 years in mobile ecosystems Mobile Product Strategy 16 patents (mobile chip design) Developer/Product Owner 4 books Chief Apps Architect Motorola 1st mobile apps co. in Europe Advisor to corps €10k - €10B 1st mobile internet portal Founded the O2 UK Incubator 1st push email solution Mentor at Springboard Incubator connFu* Master at O2 Most importantly: I’ve worked with many companies, big and small, on mobile product strategies. I at least know the right questions :) *connFu is a cloud-telephony platformWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Written a few books... 3 Innovation is for Everyone 31 innovation habits August Sept 2011 2011Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Which future? 4 $ Navigating the mobile ecosystem...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Which future? 4 $ Navigating the mobile ecosystem...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5 Facebook Smartphones Experience Google Handset Apple Embedded Ecosystems Embedded Tablets Post PC epoch Sensor Proliferation PaaS Abundant Cloud SaaS Access inc. M2M Computing IaaS LTE BT LP “Right-time” App Real-time web Economy App store & meta-data Software Digital service providers need to navigate this landscapeWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5 Facebook Smartphones Experience Google Handset Apple Embedded Ecosystems Embedded Tablets Post PC epoch Sensor Proliferation PaaS Abundant Cloud SaaS Access inc. M2M Computing IaaS LTE BT LP “Right-time” App Real-time web Economy App store & meta-data Software Digital service providers need to navigate this landscapeWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Device platform evolution... 6 2007 apps Web OS comms Closed Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Device platform evolution... 6 2007 2011 apps apps Web Web OS OS comms comms Closed Open Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Device platform evolution... 6 2007 2011 2014 apps apps Experience Platforms Web Web apps OS OS Web comms comms OS comms Closed Open Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Balance of influence tipping towards developers... 7 Experience Platforms apps Web OS comms Telco OEM Internet DevelopersWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Balance of influence tipping towards developers... 7 Experience Platforms apps Web OS comms Telco OEM Internet Developer sWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8 App experience... Telco Apps Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8 App experience... Telco Apps Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Digital experience economy... 9 User Experience (apps) $$$ Software/Device Ecosystems e.g. iOS, Android, Web... $$$$$ Network Infrastructure e.g. LTE, 3G, WiFi, ADSL, Cable... $$$$$$$Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Digital experience influence... 10 User Experience (apps) Software/Device Network InfrastructureWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11 Experience Platforms } apps Web OS comms Developers Internet EcosystemsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11 Experience Platforms } apps Web OS comms Developers Internet EcosystemsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile software stack top to bottom... 12 “Right-time” Post PC Computers Devices Social Media Gaming Money Health SME/Corp Family “Experience Platforms” HTML5 Android iOS ? Mobile Services “Stack” SaaS PaaS “The Web Operating System” Frameworks “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth LAMP/R stack IaaS CaaS NaaS BIG DATA “Cloud Platforms” TelcoWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • The dominance of experience ecosystems... 13 “Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem.” Steven Elop, CEO, Nokia Social Media Gaming Money Health SME/Corp Family “Experience Platforms” Strategic battlefront: ecosystemsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Platform economics (N-sided)... 14 OEMS UsersWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Platform economics (N-sided)... 14 Developers OEMS UsersWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Platform economics (N-sided)... 14 Developers OEMS UsersWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Platform economics (N-sided)... 14 Developers OEMS Operators UsersWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Platform economics (N-sided)... 14 Google mobile search 15% Google mobile ad revenue: 1.5% Advertisers Developers OEMS Operators tip: read Spolsky, Hagiu, Eisenmann, Users VisionMobileWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • From hobby to fully blown enterprise... 15 Apps are now about product, not code... Develop ProductWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • From hobby to fully blown enterprise... 15 Apps are now about product, not code... Analytics, Heyzap retailing, chomp Lean start-up Mobile Mobile marketing, flurry CustDev Web Web support, allify Planning PaaS/SaaS Tools/X-Dev CRM... Social media Conceive Choose Develop Deliver Engage Product Platforms Product Product Market tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Key platform decisions... 16 Which tech platform should I use?Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Which platforms are developers paying attention to? 17 Penetration (100M+) Penetration (120M+) Web-dev friendly! Easy learning curve Monetization! Mass consumption Consistent UX Smartphone browsers A lighthouse platform for A lighthouse platform for Emerging lighthouse for devs (experimental) brands/agencies multiscreen development Weak business app genre Strong entertainment/ Increasing support from business app genres CMS tools (e.g. Wordpress) Fragmentation worries Not an “open” OS Limited APIs and (no OEM update Not “all apps are equal” implementation incentives) NOT an ecosystem!Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • App store monetization... 18 Free Paid Free PaidWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Tools are getting richer and better... 19 Corona from Ansca Mobile Titanium from Appcelerator Phonegap Lua language (“code less”) HTML/CSS/JS HTML + CSS + JavaScript Strong gaming platform Mobile/desktop Open Exploits OpenGL Annual fee Developer focussed 2D physics engine Annual fee Caveats: Most solutions “favour” a reference platform HTML5 framework for Touch Ruby framework Pay for support Enterprise focus (sync) Success very use-case dependentWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile web getting better... 20 <canvas> <video> Local storage Built-in Graphics Canvas Without plug-ins (Flash) Key-value pairs 2D vector graphics Codec independent (IndexDB likely) Games and rich UI Multimedia content Offline working App cache Geo-location API Cache pages/script etc. Accesses underlying APIs Offline working Location-based apps Web Workers Semantic Annotations <device> Background processing “itemprop” API to hardware devices Offloading long-running Add semantics to HTML Microphone/camera tasks Semantic apps Richer interactive appsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • We now carry two computers... 21 COMPUTER #one COMPUTER #two Inert >1GHzWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • But it’s more than just a computer... 22 Sight (Camera) Touch (NFC) Motion (Accelerometer) Touch (Temperature) Direction (Compass) Sound (Microphone) Remote sensing (Bluetooth) A computer with senses...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • We can surf the real world... 23 AlphaPunk office N W E S Popular view of “Augmented Reality”Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • And we can interact with the physical world... 24 Security Metering Sight (Camera) Touch (NFC) Motion (Accelerometer) Access Touch (Temperature) Direction (Compass) Sound (Microphone) Remote sensing Control (Bluetooth) Real “Augmented Reality” Money Body CarsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • And we can interact with the physical world... 24 Security Metering Sight (Camera) Touch (NFC) Motion (Accelerometer) Access Touch (Temperature) Direction (Compass) Sound (Microphone) Remote sensing Control (Bluetooth) Real “Augmented Reality” Money Body CarsWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • There’s a URI for that... 25 http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342 /vitals/heart... /trainers/wear/.. Internet of /watch/temperature/.. “20 Billion devices by Things /home/windows/.. 2020” - GSMAWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Suddenly everything can “talk”... 26 Source: PSFK - http://bit.ly/aES59AWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Right-time Web 27 Real-time streams... Social stream Information stream Entertainment stream Event stream Sensor streamWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile is centre stage of right-time Web... 28 Sight The (Camera) Touch (NFC) Cloud Motion (Accelerometer) Touch (Temperature) Direction (Compass) Sound (Microphone) Remote sensing (Bluetooth) Social stream Information stream Entertainment stream Event stream Sensor streamWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Big Data is a major accomplice in the right-time revolution... 29 Key enabler: Big Data! “Sensor real time real time real time Net” storage processing output Many challenges = opportunities Distributed sensor grids Creating value from unthinkably large amounts of dataWednesday, 25 May 2011
  • M2M opportunities... 30 Opportunity: M2M ecosystems Embedded SIM $3-5 ARPUs Wireless Asset tracking Axeda Fleet management Jasper Wireless Cloud Monitoring Services SensorLogic PaaS Security Sierra Wireless M2M Telematics ILS Technology Wireless POS “Big Data” Platforms mHealth Smart Grids •No clear standardization Embedded Linux •Ecosystems yet to emerge Android/Meego/...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • M2M opportunities... 30 Opportunity: M2M ecosystems Embedded SIM $3-5 ARPUs Wireless Asset tracking Axeda Fleet management Jasper Wireless Cloud Monitoring Services SensorLogic PaaS Security Sierra Wireless M2M Telematics ILS Technology Wireless POS “Big Data” Platforms mHealth Smart Grids •No clear standardization Embedded Linux •Ecosystems yet to emerge Android/Meego/...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31 Facebook Apple? gnip XaaS O2? IMified New entrants! SaaS chargify apigee Mobile flurry allify Nodester mSaaS Duostack Cloud heyzap New entrants! PaaS Heroku Force.com Opportunities connFu dotcloud Tropo mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator? AWS New entrants! IaaS Rightscale Rackspace Nimbula CaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft BlueVia (Telefonica) NaaS New entrants!Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31 Facebook Apple? gnip XaaS O2? IMified New entrants! SaaS chargify apigee Mobile flurry allify Nodester mSaaS Duostack Cloud heyzap New entrants! PaaS Heroku Force.com Opportunities connFu dotcloud Tropo mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator? AWS New entrants! IaaS Rightscale Rackspace Nimbula CaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft BlueVia (Telefonica) NaaS New entrants!Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • The innovation advantage... 32 Software DNA Increasingly, the dialogue with customers is via software (apps)Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • Where are we headed? 33 The not-so-distant future... 100 GHz 100 Mbps 100 TB 100 Sensors Just imagine the possibilities...Wednesday, 25 May 2011
  • 34 Thank You paul@wirelesswanders.com wirelesswanders.com @pgolding (C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010Wednesday, 25 May 2011