2030 Strategic Plan and 2014-25018 Business Plan

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2030 Strategic Plan and 2014-25018 Business Plan

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  • 1. Maria das Graças Silva Foster CEO Conference Call/Webcast February 26th, 2014 2030 Strategic Plan and 2014-2018 Business Plan
  • 2. DISCLAIMER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X. 2
  • 3. 2030 Strategic Plan
  • 4. Agenda 1. 2007 (2020 Strategic Plan) x 2013 (2030 Strategic Plan) Context: Reasons for Revising the Plan 2. Changes in Business Environments 3. Supply x Demand x Prices 4. Petrobras’ Views on Opportunities in Brazil 5. Big Choices and Petrobras’ Strategies • Exploration and Production • Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP) • Distribution • Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical • Biofuels • International 6. Challenges of the Corporate Segments 7. Mission, Vision 2030 e Corporate Drivers 4
  • 5. Petrobras Strategic Plan: Recent History Main Drivers for the Revision of 2013 Planning 2030 Vision 2010 Law 12.276: Transfer of Rights Law 12.304: PPSA Law 12.351: PSA 2007 2008 Last Offshore Shale Gas – Beginning of US Areas Bid Shale Gas production growth 2013 Libra Auction (Oct) First PSA Auction 2013 Tight Oil – production reaches 2.3 MMbpd 2008 World Economic Crisis Brent drops to US$ 34,00/bbl 2005 2006 2006 Pre-Salt’s Discovery: Lula (Jul) 2007 2008 2008 First Oil: Pre-Salt Jubarte EWT (Sep) 2009 2010 2009 First Oil – Santos Pre-Salt: Lula EWT (May) 2011 2012 2011 Libra’s discovery 2020 Strategic Plan 2013 2014 2014 Pre-salt’s production record: 407 kbpd (Feb) 2013 Pre-salt: 300 kbpd only 7 years after discovery* 2030 Strategic Plan • Created in: 2007 • Created in: 2013 • Drivers: pre-salt’s discovery and growth of oil products market in Brazil. • Drivers: changes in regulatory framework in Brazil – new Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Agreement Regimes, growth in US shale gas and tight oil production and 2008 world economic crisis. • 13 year horizon: strategies defined to 2020, based on 2007’s exploratory potential, not considering future bid rounds. *GOM=17 years, Campos B.=11 years, North Sea=9 years • 17 year horizon: growth in oil production beyond 2020 demands, on top of the 2013 exploratory potential, the incorporation of areas acquired in the new bids (concession and PSA) 5
  • 6. Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: WORLD – Business Environment 2007 x 2013 2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed Positive perspective for the world economy. High 2008 world economic crisis reduces world economic growth growth rates (2008-2012 expected GDP: 5% p.a. – Source: 1 expectations. IMF, Oct/2007) (Expected world GDP for 2014-2030 = 3.6% p.a. – Source: Global Insight, 2013) Strong growth for the Chinese economy resulting in high Uncertainties surrounding the pace of China’s economic commodity prices (China’s economic growth 2000-2013: 2 growth and impacts on prices. (China’s economic growth 9.8% p.a. – Source: IMF, Oct/2013) 2014-2030: 4.8 – 6.5% p.a. – Source: EIU and Global Insight, 2013) Strong oil demand growth. (1.8% p.a. 2003-2007 – Source: IEA, Nov/2007) Projections for oil prices increased every year, due to demand growth and the views on depletion in non-OPEC production. (Average projected price for the 2007-2020 period: US$ 55/bbl in 2007 and US$ 75/bbl in 2008 – Source: Pira, 2007 and 2008) 3 Slow-down in oil demand growth (0.7% p.a. 2013-2030 – Great enthusiasm with biofuels. 5 Non-conventionals revolution: 2030 production: tight oil – 5.8 Perspective of growth in US dependency on oil and gas imports (growth in LNG imports). Source: IEA, Nov/2013) Oil price stable with perspectives of a small decrease in the mid-term (non-conventionals production growth in US, Irak and 4 Brazil). (2013-2030 projected price: US$ 100/bbl. Source: Pira, 2013) MMbpd and shale gas - 745 bn m³ (Source: IEA, 2013) Perspective for US self-sufficiency in Gas by 2019 and 6 reduction of oil imports needs from 7.9 to 3.6 MMbpd in 2030 (Source: IEA, 2013) 6
  • 7. Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: BRAZIL – Business Environment 2007 x 2013 2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed Perspectives of oil production growth in Brazil due to the Pre-salt’s Deeper knowledge on the Pre-salt, with successive production records. We discoveries. Questions on the existence and feasibility of already have 10 production units operating in the Pre-salt layer. technologies for Pre-salt production. Examples: salt movements; 1 Experience in the Pre-salt exploration and production and in the H2S content; CO2 treatment and reinjection . reservoir performance led us to the cost optimization phase. E&P activities in Brazil were regulated solely by the concession Three regulatory frameworks– Oil and Gas business with three 2 frameworks: Concession, Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing framework. Agreement Critical resources were mapped to attract foreign suppliers to Brazil. 3 Local Content Policy is a reality. National industry presses ahead with its There were uncertainties surrounding the naval industry’s capacity learning curve, especially in the naval segment, with perspectives of to meet Post-salt + Pre-Salt’s demands. competitiveness. Perspectives on oil products demand growth for the 2007-2011 period was 2.8% p.a.: Perspective on oil products demand growth for the 2014-2018 period of 2.5% p.a. and 2.2% p.a. for 2019-2030 - A 4.1% p.a. fleet growth was expected, alongside wealth creation; - Biodiesel requirements evolving to B5 in 2010 up to 2020. 4 Great expectation on strong ethanol expansion, with the announcement of 100 new projects (Source: Consultoria Ideia/2007) Lower expectation for ethanol expansion, focused on the recovery of 5 agricultural productivity. Ethanol demand growth of 5.4% p.a. in the 20142030 period, being met, up to 2016, by spare capacity. - For 2007-2011 growth amounted to 4.5% p.a. and fleet growth to 7.4% p.a. - A 5.8% fleet growth is expected for the 2014-2018 period and 4.2% for 20192030. - Perspective on the evolution of biodiesel requirements from the current B5 to B8 up to 2010 and B10 up to 2023, flat up to 2030 7
  • 8. World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2020 Economic feasibility of future oil production Supply challenges Demand Projection and Expected Decline of World Oil Production 120 100 90 80 70 Total 23.1 MM bpd New Projects 101.5 MM bpd 78.4 MM bpd Current Production 2020 World Liquids Demand (MM bpd) 110 60 50 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2020 Production Volume from New Projects with production start up from 2013 on according to WoodMackenzie Production volumes from new projects (thousand barrels per day) 0 Brazil Venezuela Latin Am. Others West Africa North Africa Africa Others EUA (Onshore) Canadá Oil Sands EUA (Golfo do México) México Canadá EUA (Alasca) Iraq Iran Saudi Arabia Middle East Others China Australia Asia Others North Sea Russia and East Europe Caspian Europe Others 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2.727 1.377 1.233 2.069 814 977 1.032 960 938 Latam 5.337 Africa 3.859 Tight Oil Contribution (382 Mbpd) North Am. 3.810 486 365 29 1.358 1.209 231 1.012 824 Asia 2.394 453 1.118 1.593 1.558 514 224 Middle East 3.809 Europe + FSU 3.888 Total 23.1 MM bpd Source: Wood Mackenzie Data - Global Oil Supply Tool (May/2013), developed by Petrobras, save for Brazil data, for which the source is Petrobras’ internal estimates (Jul/2013). 8
  • 9. World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2030 Economic feasibility of future oil production Supply challenges Demand Projection and Expected Decline of World Oil Production Challenges for New Oil Production Projects around 2030 120 • Each country has specific challenges to sustain or grow production in the 2030 horizon: Projects In operation 100 90 80 70 New Projects –USA: In America, tight oil sweet spots will be more quickly explored by 2020, increasing project costs in the next decade. Uncertainties surrounding environmental restrictions persist. 50.8 MM bpd World Liquids Demand (MM bpd) 110 Current Production 60 –Brazil: Focus on deep waters, for which the frequency of bid rounds, opportunities and obligations will be the variables that companies will consider when evaluating their participation in bids or consortia. –Canada: High production costs lead to marginal producer status, demanding a continuous search of efficiency gains –Russia: Current production in advance phase of decline, demanding substantial investment in the development of new fields, both in mature areas and new production frontiers. –Iraq: sustain production increase through solving internal conflicts. • Common Challenge: Individual projects management reducing Capex and Opex. 50 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Petrobras development, based on World Energy Outlook/IEA 2013; World Oil Outlook/OPEC 2013; CERA 2013; WoodMakcenzie 2013. 9
  • 10. 2030 Strategic Plan Assumptions Brent and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Petrobras’ assumptions on Brent price within the most conservative range of market projections. Petrobras’ projection for Henry Hub natural gas prices is close to the average of long term’s projections. Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in US$/MMBtu 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Projections* 2030 2027 2024 2021 2018 2015 2012 2009 2006 Petrobras 2003 Henry Hub Nat. Gas Prices in US$/MM Btu (2014 US$) Oil prices in US$/bbl (2010 – 2030) 2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030 2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030 US$ 107/bbl US$ 105/bbl US$ 100/bbl US$ 95/bbl 3.51 US$/MMBtu 4.00 US$/MMBtu 4.60 US$/MMBtu 5.88 US$/MMBtu * Projections: AIE (Nov/2013), PIRA (May/2013) , WoodMackenzie (March/2013), IHS (Jul/2013), AEO (April/2013). * Projections: IEA/DOE (June/2012), PIRA (Jan/2013) and CERA (Oct/20123), Barclays Capital (Nov/2012) 10
  • 11. Brazil’s Sedimentary Basins: Areas Granted to Petrobras in 2007 and 2013 In 2007, Petrobras held the rights to an exploratory area 84% larger than 2013’s. Areas Granted to be Explored by Petrobras in Brazil 2007: 140 thousand km² 2013: 76 thousand km² Note: 2013 position does not include Libra and Bids 11 and 12 State Limits Sedimentary Basin Petrobras 100% Petrobras and Partners 11
  • 12. Petrobras’ Strategy: Choices of an Integrated Energy Company E&P E&P RTMP To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 2020-2030 period, under Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to match domestic market demand To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and the preference for Petrobras’ brand DISTRIBUTION NATURAL GAS, ENERGY and GAS-CHEMICAL BIOFUELS To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins. To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for gasoline and diesel Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA INTERNATIONAL 12
  • 13. Exploration and Production To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 20202030 period, under Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective 13
  • 14. Oil and NGL production scenarios in Brazil Petrobras and Estimators: 2013, 2020 to 2035 In 2035, according to estimators, Brazil’s oil production will range from 4.7 to 6.6 million barrels of oil per day. International Energy Agency places Brazil as the 6th largest oil producer in 2035. Million bpd Brazil’s Average Oil Production 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Vision* 1. 2. 3. 4. Estimator Brazil’s Oil Production 2020-2030 Average Brazil’s Oil Production 2035 1. Petrobras - Brazil* 2. DOE 3. WoodMackenzie 4. CERA 5. AIE 5.2 million bpd 5.0 million bpd 4.9 million bpd 4.4 million bpd 5.4 million bpd in 2025 Outside SP 2030 horizon 6,6 million bpd 5,4 million bpd 4,7 million bpd 6,0 million bpd 2020-2030 Average 2035 Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces Source: AIE 2013, DOE 2013, WoodMackenzie 2013, IHS - CERA 2013 (The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS. 14 for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). Any further use or redistribution of this content is strictly prohibited without a written permission by IHS. All rights reserved).
  • 15. Petrobras Big Choice for the E&P segment 4 million bpd average production: 2020 to 2030, Brazil and Abroad Million bpd Petrobras chooses to be a company with a potential production capacity of 4 million bpd in its activities in Brazil* and abroad, maximizing profitability. Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad 2013-2020: 3.0 million bpd 4,2 Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad 2020-2030: 4.0 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Average 2020-2030 * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP 15
  • 16. Strategies – E&P Segment E&P: 2013-2030 1 Discover and appropriate reserves in Brazil, keeping a reserve to production ratio above 12 years 2 Develop exploratory efforts in Brazil’s sedimentary basins, selectively and sharing risks 3 Develop exploratory efforts for natural gas in Brazil’s sedimentary land basins 4 Maximize, with profitability, oil and gas recovery in Brazil’s concessions under production 5 Develop Pre-salt’s Area production in Brazil 16
  • 17. Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP) To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to match domestic market demand 17
  • 18. Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.). Million bpd Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd 3.7 Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 18
  • 19. Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.). Million bpd Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd 3.7 Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 19
  • 20. Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand Refining Expansion Aligned with the Domestic Market Growth Petrobras’ processing capacity is expected to reach 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030. million bpd   Oil Products Self-sufficiency: Total throughput = Total demand Volumes Self-sufficiency: Oil production = oil products consumption Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras+Third Parties+ Government 20202030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Average Demand for Oil Products in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * PROMEGA Increase in Capacity by 195 kbpd OBS: Additional throughput capacity from PROMEGA (by/2016): +165 kbpd (existing refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST). PROMEGA: Its goal is to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production from the existing refineries, based on the increase in the capacity and efficiency of the processing units * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 20
  • 21. Distribution To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and the preference for Petrobras’ brand 21
  • 22. Oil Products Distribution Markets and Petrobras Market Share Maintenance of Participation in a Growing Market Petrobras will grow organically its market share to 38% by 2030 with an investment program in Logistics. The Brazilian oil products market will grow 74% during this period. Brazil’s Oil Products Retail Market BR Distribuidora Share Regional Growth (2013-2030) (million m³/year and %) million m³ 400 37% 36% 37% 38% 38% 300 126 0 40% 30% 200 100 % 129 151 163 101 79 82 95 47 47 56 62 2013 2014 2018 2020 Others BR Distribuidora 191 119 73 20% North +3.4%a.a. Center-West +3.3%a.a. 10% 0% Average 20202030 Market-Share BR Distribuidora Northeast +4.0%a.a. Southeast +2.6%a.a. South +3.6%a.a. 22
  • 23. Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins. 23
  • 24. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance: 2013 - 2030 (million m³/day) The natural gas imports and transportation infrastructure already installed is enough to meet Petrobras’ demand until 2030*. Supply Demand Domestic Supply of NG¹ 47 2013 2014 89 86 75 2018 8 2020 Supply E&P Average 2020-2030 33 35 35 35 35 12 12 11 11 2013 Supply E&P New BIDs 47 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 30 6 30 6 30 6 30 6 24 24 24 24 24 2013 2014 2018 2020 7 7 7 41 14 Flexible To be contracted Flexible 41 39 52 49 57 Demand Inflexible Average 2020-2030 ** 7 4 Inflexible 2013 2014 LNG Regasification 41 14 2 NG Distributors Demand 30 6 27 50 47 Bolivia Imports 41 14 49 45 12 47 41 97 86 75 41 Thermoelectric Demand Petrobras + Third Parties 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 Petrobras Demand: Fertilizers + Refineries 41 14 27 TRBA 7 20 20 20 20 20 2013 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 ** 98 118 146 157 168 Pecém Baía de Guanabara 12 9 2013 Total ¹ Includes NG from Partners and Third Parties. ** Supply expects the renovation of the GSA with YPFB (Bolivia) and does not consider the need of a 4th LNG terminal. 96 16 3 13 3 21 1 5 28 1 5 22 35 3 5 27 Fertilizers under Evaluation Fertilizers Refining 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 105 124 129 143 * Excludes natural gas production outflow and processing infrastructure. Total 24
  • 25. Biofuels To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for gasoline and diesel 25
  • 26. Participation in the Biofuels Market: 2013 - 2030 Increase of Ethanol and Biofuel production, following the growth of the gasoline and diesel domestic market. Gasoline Type A and Ethanol Market ¹ (thous. bpd) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 934 395 986 422 1,175 559 1,275 642 Gasoline Type A and Ethanol 1,501 Market Diesel and Biodiesel ² (thous. bpd) 2,000 1,618 1,500 1,054 2014 2018 2020 ¹ Consists of Gasoline Type A, anhydrous ethanol and hydrous ethanol. Participation of PBIO in Ethanol Production 120 (thous. bpd) 80 Ethanol Market 61 43 40 18 8 0 2013 22 Average 2020-2030 26 0 2013 2020 100 107 152 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 Participation of PBIO in Biodiesel Production PBIO Ethanol + Partners (thous. bpd) 40 30 PBIO Ethanol 20 10 2018 54 ² Domestic market only 119 9 2014 Diesel and Biodiesel Market Biodiesel Market 500 60 92 1,380 1,000 822 50 0 2013 1,083 1,289 Average 2020-2030 25 18 10 8 0 2013 11 23 PBIO Biodiesel 36 + Partners 32 PBIO Biodiesel 16 9 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 26
  • 27. International Area Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA 27
  • 28. International Oil and Gas Production: 2013 - 2030 Investment through participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the U.S., especially from 2019 onwards. Act on the conservation of the natural gas supply from Bolivia to Brazil and on non-conventionals in Argentina and USA. thousand boed Petrobras Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2020-2030: 479 kboe Petrobras’ Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2013-2020: 229 kboe Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2020-2030: 267 kbpd Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2013-2020: 123 kbpd Average 2020-2030 28
  • 29. Challenges of the Corporate Segments Human Resources (HR) Social Responsibility (SR) Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency (HSEE) Technology 29
  • 30. Challenges of the Corporate Segments Human Resources Challenges (HR) To have an innovative and flexible human resource program, taking as a base the appreciation of the employees and their contribution to the sustainability of Petrobras Social Responsibility Challenges (SR) To ensure the alignment and integration of social responsibility in the decision making processes and in the management of the business Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency Challenges (HSEE) To consolidate HSEE issues as a principle of the Company’s operations and permanent commitment from the workforce Technolgy Challenges To keep the technological system recognized for providing technologies for the sustainable growth of the Company 30
  • 31. Mission, Vision 2030 and Corporate Drivers Mission Vision 2030 To perform in the oil and gas industry in an ethic, safe and profitable way, with social and environmental responsibility, providing products suited to the needs of its clients and contributing to the development of Brazil and the countries where it operates. To be one of the five largest integrated energy companies in the world¹ and the preferred one by its stakeholders. Corporate Drivers Integrated Growth Profitability Social and Environmental Responsibility ¹ Metric: one of the five largest oil producers among all companies, with or without shares in stock exchanges. (Source for calculation: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly – PIW - Annual Report ) 31
  • 32. 2014-2018 Business and Management Plan
  • 33. Exploratory Success and Reserves Increase 46 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/13 – Feb/14), of which 24 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt). TANGO(CES-161) PITU(RNS-158) PAD FARFAN-1(SES-176D PAD MURIÚ-1(SES-175D) PAD MOITA BONITA(SES-178) PAD TAMBUATÁ SANTONIANO(GLF-35) SÃO BERNARDO(ESS-216) ARJUNA(ESS-211) RIO PURUS(CXR-1DA) EXT DE FORNO(AB-125) EXT DE BRAVA (VD-19) MANDARIM(MLS-105) BENEDITO(BP-8) FLORIM(RJS-704) PAD IARA EXT-4(RJS-706) SAGITÁRIO(SPS-98) FRANCO NORDESTE(RJS-724) FRANCO LESTE(RJS-723) FRANCO SUL(RJS-700) ENTORNO DE IARA-1(RJS-711) IARA ALTO ÂNGULO(RJS-715) JÚPITER BRACUHI(RJS-713) NE TUPI-2(RJS-721) SUL DE TUPI(RJS-698)) State Limit Sedimentary Basin 100% Petrobras Petrobras and Partners Brazil  Discoveries: 46 • Offshore: 24 • Onshore: 22  Exploratory Success Ratio: 75%  Reserves: 16.0 Billion boe  RRR¹: 131% > 100% for the 21st consecutive year  R/P²: 20.0 years Pre-Salt  Discoveries: 14, of which 5 were pioneers wells  Exploratory Success Ratio: 100%  Reserves: 300 km of SE region, 55% of GDP ¹ RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio ² R/P: Reserve / Production 33 33
  • 34. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a. Oil and NGL production operate by Petrobras in 2020 will be 4.9 million of bpd. Versão 20/02 22:00 34
  • 35. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve in Brazil 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a. Versão 20/02 22:00 35
  • 36. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil Oi and NGL production (million bpd) 1st Oil Forecast 2014 - 2015 9 Production Units Concluded  Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo)  Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) • Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) 1st Quarter • Roncador IV (P-62) 2º Quarter  Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) • Papa-Terra (P-61 + TAD )  Papa-Terra (P-63)  Roncador III (P-55) • Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) • Roncador IV (P-62) 2nd Quarter • Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) 3rd Quarter • Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) 4th Quarter • Papa-Terra (P-61) 1st Oil Forecast 2016 - 2020 • Lula Alto • Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) 3rd Quarter • Lula Central • Lula Ext. Sul e ToR Sul de Lula (P-68) • Lula Sul (P-66) • Lula Oeste (P-69) • Búzios I (P-74) • Búzios III (P-76) • Lapa • Iara Horst (P-70) • Lula Norte (P-67) • Búzios II (P-75) •Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça • Búzios IV (P-77) • NE de Tupi (P-72) • Deep Water ES • Iara NW (P-71) • Marlim I •Revitalization • Júpiter • Búzios V • Espadarte III • Deep Water II SE • Marlim II Revitalization • Libra • Florim • Deep Water I SE • Sul Pq. Baleias • Maromba I • Carcará • Entorno de Iara (P-73) • Papa-Terra (TAD) 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a.  Production Units in operation • Production Units Delivered in 2013 --- Production Units not bid as of Feb/2014 36
  • 37. Production Units Delivered, under Construction and under Bidding 1,000 kbpd Additional Installed Capacity Operated by Petrobras 300 kbpd 150 kbpd P-67 1,000 kbpd 900 kbpd 1,050 kbpd P-73 TAD P-75 Cid. Mangaratiba P-77 P-67 Cid. Itaguaí P-71 P-62 Cid. Caraguatatuba P-61 P-70 P-72 Cid. Ilhabela P-58 P-76 Under Bidding Process: P-55 P-63 Cid. Paraty • • • • • • • Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça Deep Water ES Marlim I Revitalization Deep Water I SE Maromba I Sul do Pq. das Baleias Carcará P-74 PU to be bid: P-66 P-69 P-68 Cid. Saquarema Cid. Itajaí •Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça Cid. Maricá Cid. São Paulo 2013 PU under bidding: 2014 2015 2016 • • • • • • Deep Water ES Marlim I Revitalization Deep Water I SE Maromba I Sul do Pq. das Baleias Carcará + 600 kbpd + 150 kbpd 2017 2018 37
  • 38. 19 New PLSVs to support the Oil Curve PLSVs under Operation and Construction Current Fleet = 11 PLSVs + 8 throughout 2014 +9 +2 3 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) 1 PLSVs of 300t (The Netherlands) Sunrise 270t Deep Constructor 125t Kommandor 3000 135t Normand7 340t North Ocean 102 210t Lay Vessel 105 300t 1 PLSVs of 300t (Suape) 1 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) Sapura Diamante 550t Sapura Topázio 550t 2 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) P-58 Skandi Vitória 300t Seven Mar 340t Polar Onyx 275t Seven Waves 550t Skandi Niterói 270t Seven Seas 430t Coral do Atlântico 550t Estrela do Mar 550t 2 PLSVs of 650t (The Netherlands) McDermott Agile 200t Seven Condor 230t 1 PLSVs of 300t (Suape) Seven Phoenix 340t PLSV: Pipe Laying Support Vessel 2014 2014 2016 2017 38
  • 39. Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand Refining Expansion Aligned with Domestic Market Growth Million bpd Petrobras’ refining capacity should reach 3.3 million bpd in 2020, aligned with domestic market growth. PROMEGA Capacity Expansion of 195 kbpd RNEST 1st Phase 4th Quarter RNEST 2nd Phase 2nd Quarter Comperj 1st Phase Premium I 1st Phase Premium II PROMEGA additional refining capacity (by Dec/2016): +165 kbpd (current refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST). PROMEGA targets are to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production of our refineries, based on capacity and efficiency increase of processing units. 39
  • 40. RNEST and COMPERJ Refineries Physical and Financial Monitoring IMPLEMENTION MILESTONES 1 - Start-up - ETA (Mar/2014) 2 - Start-up - ETDI (Sep/2014) 3 - Start-up UDA 11 (Oct/2014) 4 - Start-up UCR 21 (Nov/2014) 5 - Start-up HDT Diesel 31 (Nov/2014) 100 90 80 (%) 70 60 20000 50 40 18000 PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 2014 2014 Projetado Planned 2014 2014 BMP 13-17: 87% Accomplished: 84% 14000 Projetado: US$ Planned 18.579 MM US$ 18.579 MM 12000 10000 8000 4000 10 2000 0 0 PNG 12-16 BMP 12-16 PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Projetado Planned PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 100 90 80 (%) 70 60 IMPLEMENTATION MILESTONES 1 - Start-up – ETA (Jun/2015) 2 - Start-up - ETDI (Jun/2015) 3 - Start-up - UDAV (Ago/2016) 4 - Start-up - UCR (Ago/2016) 5 - Start-up - HCC (Ago/2016) 14.000 BMP 13-17 PNG 13-17 2016 2016 Planned Projetado 2016 2016 BMP 13-17: 67% Accomplished: 66% 50 40 30 PNG 13-17: US$ BMP 13-17 13.457 MM US$ 13.457 MM Projetado: US$ Planned MM 13.596 US$ 13.596 MM 12.000 10.000 8.000 BMP 13-17: 7,882 Million Accomplished: 7,573 Million 6.000 4.000 20 2.000 mai-04 nov-04 mai-05 nov-05 mai-06 nov-06 mai-07 nov-07 mai-08 nov-08 mai-09 nov-09 mai-10 nov-10 mai-11 nov-11 mai-12 nov-12 mai-13 nov-13 mai-14 nov-14 mai-15 nov-15 mai-16 nov-16 mai-17 nov-17 mai-18 nov-18 mai-19 nov-19 mai-20 nov-20 mai-21 nov-21 10 0 Projetado Planned 16.000 US$ MM 110 Accomplished Realizado Financial Monitoring – S-Curve Physical Monitoring – S-Curve COMPERJ BMP 13-17: 15,246 Million Accomplished: 14,841 Million BMP 12-16 PNG 12-16 BMP 13-17 PNG 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Planned Projetado 0 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 jul-13 jan-14 jul-14 jan-15 jul-15 jan-16 jul-16 jan-17 jul-17 jan-18 jul-18 jan-19 jul-19 jan-20 jul-20 jan-21 jul-21 feb/14 abr-05 out-05 abr-06 out-06 abr-07 out-07 abr-08 out-08 abr-09 out-09 abr-10 out-10 abr-11 out-11 abr-12 out-12 abr-13 out-13 abr-14 out-14 abr-15 out-15 abr-16 out-16 abr-17 out-17 abr-18 out-18 abr-19 out-19 abr-20 out-20 6000 20 feb/14 PNG 13-17: BMP 13-17 US$ 18.515 MM US$ 18.515 MM 16000 30 Start-up: 2016 Financial Monitoring – S-Curve abr-05 out-05 abr-06 out-06 abr-07 out-07 abr-08 out-08 abr-09 out-09 abr-10 out-10 abr-11 out-11 abr-12 out-12 abr-13 out-13 abr-14 out-14 abr-15 out-15 abr-16 out-16 abr-17 out-17 abr-18 out-18 abr-19 out-19 abr-20 out-20 Start-up: 4th Quarter Physical Monitoring – S-Curve 110 US$ MM RNEST PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Projetado Planned 40
  • 41. Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical Monetization of Natural Gas reserves by increasing the capacity of thermoelectric generation and of nitrogenous fertilizers, as well as the NG distributor demand. +20% 7.5 6.8 6.0 6,3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2013 Installed Capacity of 5.0 Thermoelectric Generation 2.5 (GW) Thermoelectric Power Plant projects: 7,2 2014 2018 2020 49 52 0.3 1.2 0.8 New TP Current Capacity TP Baixada Fluminense TP Azulão TP Bahia II TP Sudeste VI Feb/2014 2017 2020 2020 0.0 +33% 60 NG Distributor Demand (million m³/d) 40 41 39 Infrastructure projects of NG: Delivery gates along GASBOL and NE and SE Network 20 0 2013 2014 2018 2020 3.5 0.8 3.5 0.7 2.7 2.8 2018 2020 +169% 4.5 Ammonia and Urea Market Supply (million ton/year) 3.0 1.5 0.0 1.3 1.1 2013 1.8 0.2 1.6 2014 0.2 Ammonia Fertilizers projects: Urea Ammonium Sulfate UNF III (MS) UNF V (MG) Feb/2014 4th Quarter - 2014 2017 41
  • 42. International: Oil and Natural Gas Production Production growth by participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the USA. Maintenance of Bolivian gas supply to Brazil and minority operation in non-conventional in Argentina and the USA. kboed 294 253 177 152 140 92 2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.9 % p.a. 2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.7 % p.a. 2014 2015 2016 2017 Petrobras International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2018 2019 2020 Petrobras International Oil Production 42
  • 43. 2014-18 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals PERFORMANCE CAPITAL DISCIPLINE PRIORITY Financiability Assumptions • Investment Grade rating maintenance • No new equity issuance • Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) • Partnerships and Business Models Restructuring 2014 • Management focused on reaching physical and financial targets of each project • Guarantee the expansion of the business with solid financial indicators • Priority for oil and natural gas exploration & production projects in Brazil 2018 43
  • 44. 2014-2018 BMP Investments Approved by the Board of Directors of Petrobras on 02/25/2014 BMP 2014-2018 US$ 220.6 billion Financiability Assumptions 38.7 (18%) • 10.1 (5%) 9.7 (4%) − Return of the debt ratios and leverage to their limits within 24 months2 − Leverage lower than 35% − 2,3 (1.0%) 2.7 (1.2%) 2.2 (1%) 153.9 (70%) Investment Grade Rating maintenance: Net Debt/Ebitda lower than 2.5x E&P Downstream Distribution Gas and Energy No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) • Partnerships and Business Models Restructuring Engineering, Technology and Materials International 1) 2) Biofuels • • 1.0 (0.4%) Other Areas 1 Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services Material Fact of 11/29/2013 44
  • 45. 2014-2018 BMP Investments: US$ 220.6 Billion Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation, Bidding Process and Evaluation Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation + Under Bidding Process Portfolio of Projects Under Evaluation US$ 206.8 Billion Total Investments US$ 13.8 Billion US$ 220.6 Billion Under Implementation 38.7 (18%) 10,1 (5%) 2,3 9,7 (4%) (1,0%) 153.9 (70%) 1,0 (0,4%) 2,2 (1%) = 2,7 (1,2%) • Projects being executed (construction) • Projects already bid Under Bidding Process •E&P projects in Brazil •Premium I Refinery •Premium II Refinery + • Projects under Studies in Phase I, II or III (except E&P in Brazil) • Resources required for studies of Projects Under Evaluation Oil Production 2020: 4.2 million bpd E&P Biofuels Downstream Distribution Gas and Energy Engineering, Technology and Materials International No impact in Oil Production 2020 Other Areas 1 1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services ¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding process will be done in 2014. 45
  • 46. Petrobras Investments in Exploration and Production: US$ 153.9 billion Total E&P US$ 153.9 bilhões 18,0 (12%) Production Development + Exploration US$ 135.9 billion 23,4 (15%) 53,9 (40%) 82,0 (60%) 112,5 (73%) Pre-Salt (Concession) Exploration Production Development Infrastructure and Support Post-Salt Pre-Salt Transfer of Rights PSA (Libra) E&P Petrobras US$ 153.9 Billion (77%) + E&P Partners US$ 44.8 Billion (23%) = Total with Partners US$ 198.7 Billion (100%) 46
  • 47. Petrobras Investments: US$ 58.5 billion Downstream – Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical – International Downstream US$ 38.7 billion Refining Capacity Expansion Operational Improvement Quality and Conversion Logistics for Oil 0,3 0,3 1% 1% 0,4 1% 1,4 3% Projects Under Implementation 1,4 4% 3,3 9% 16,8 43% 5,5 14%  RNEST (Pernambuco) Premium I – 1st phase (Maranhão)  COMPERJ 1st phase (Rio de Janeiro) Premium II (Ceará)  PROMEF – 45 Vessels to transport Oil and Oil Products Fleet Expansion Petrochemical Logistics for Ethanol 9,4 24% Distribution Corporate 0,1 1% Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical Network Projects Under Implementation 1,3 13% US$ 10.1 billion Energy Projects Under Bidding Process 2,6 25% 6,1 61%     UNF III (Mato Grosso do Sul) UNF V (Minas Gerais) Rote 2: Gas pipeline and NGPU Rote 3: Gas pipeline and NGPU Regas - LNG Gas-Chemical Operational Units (Nitrogenous) International US$ 9.7 billion Exploration & Production Refining & Marketing Distribution Gas & Energy Corporate Petrochemical 0,05 0,5% 0,6 6% 9,0 92% 0,01 0,1% 0,05 0,5% 0,1 0,7% Projects Under Implementation       E&P USA – Saint Malo E&P USA – Cascade and Chinook E&P USA – Lucius E&P Argentina – Medanito and Entre Lomas E&P Bolivia – San Alberto and San Antonio E&P Nigeria – Egina Projects under implementation, under evaluation and under bidding were included. . 47
  • 48. 2014-2018 BMP: Investment and Operating Costs Management 2014-2018 BMP US$ 220.6 Billion PRC-Poço PROEF Program to Increase Operational Efficiency UO-BC UO-RIO PROCOP Operating Costs Optimization Program Program to Reduce Well Costs PRC-Sub Program to Reduce Subsea Facilities Costs INFRALOG – Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program Local Content Management– Take advantage of the industry´s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities – Manageable Operating Costs.. PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction – Investments in Drilling and Completion. PRC Sub: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to subsea systems construction. 48
  • 49. 2014-2018 BMP Incorporates operational efficiency gains from PROCOP Costs reduction between 2013 and 2016 with potential savings of R$ 37.5 billion in nominal values Refining Cost (R$ thous./UEDC *): Logistic Cost in Downstream (R$/bbl): Lifting Cost (R$/boe): 34,8 32,7 Gains from PROCOP reduce Lifting Cost: -5.9% p.a. -7.2% p.a. 27,3 Without PROCOP 24,2 With PROCOP 2014 10,50 10,83 Without PROCOP  Excellence level in the management of materials and spares.  Adequacy of overhead. 10,11 With PROCOP 10,06 2014 Gains from PROCOP reduce Logistic Cost:  Reduction in shipping costs: simplification of customs procedures; optimization of fuel consumption; and implementation of new management tools. +0.12% p.a.  Optimization of inventory levels of oil and oil products.  Reduction of stored water in the logistics system. 2018 +1.32% p.a. 1,177 Gains from PROCOP reduce Refining Cost: 1,240 Without PROCOP With PROCOP -0.40% p.a. 1,013 2014 gas. 2018 +0.78% p.a. 1,029  Optimization of routine processes and resources used in the production of oil & 2018  Integrating common and interdependent activities among refineries.  Optimized use of support resources.  Optimization in the consumption of energy, catalyzers and chemicals. * UEDC = Utilized Equivalent Distillation Capacity 2014-18 period: projected with nominal values. 49
  • 50. 2014-2018 BMP: Financiability Analysis– US$ 206.8 billion Total Investment Projects Under Implementation + Projects Under Bidding Process Projects Under Evaluation US$ 220.6 billion US$ 206.8 billion US$ 13.8 billion Under Implementation 38.7 (18%) 10.1 (5%) 9.7 (4%) 153.9 (70%) 1,0 (0.4%) 2,3 (1.0%) 2.2 (1%) = 2.7 (1.2%) • Projects being executed (construction) • Projects already bid • Resources required for studies of Projects Under Evaluation •E&P projects in Brazil •Premium I Refinery •Premium II Refinery Oil Production 2020: 4.2 million bpd E&P Distribution Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas 1 + No impact in Oil Production 2020 Biofuels Downstream • Projects under Studies in Phase I, II or III (except E&P in Brazil) Under Bidding Process Gas and Energy International 1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services 2) As occurred in 2012 (2012-2016 BMP ) and in 2013 (2013-2017 BMP). Financiability US$ 206.8 billion ¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding process will be done in 2014. Low maturity of projects: not considered in the financiability analysis2 50
  • 51. E&P and Dowstream Share Evolution in the Business and Management Plan Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation E&P share in Petrobras investments has been increasing in the last five Business and Management Plan Investment US$ 224.0 Billion US$ 224.7 Billion US$ 236.5 Billion US$ 236.7 Billion US$ 220.6 Billion Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation 70% 62% E&P 48% 35% 52% 33% Downstream Other Areas* 17% 2010-2014 BMP 15% 2011-2015 BMP * Gas and Energy, International, BR Distribuidora, PBio , Engineering Technology and Materials (ETM) and Corporate and Services Area 56% 30% 14% 2012-2016 BMP Total Capex 27% 18% 11% 2013-2017 BMP Total Capex 12% 2014-2018 BMP Total Capex 51
  • 52. 2014-2018 BMP: Financial Planning Assumptions Financing analysis only incorporates projects under Implementation + Bidding = US$ 206.8 Billion No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance Main Assumptions for Cash Flow Generation and Investment Levels 2014-2018 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2014. Brent Prices (US$/bbl) US$ 105 in 2014, declining to US$ 100 by 2017 and to US$ 95 in the long term Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$) R$ 2.23 in 2014, strengthening to R$ 1.92 in the long term Leverage Limit: < 35% │ Declining leverage (although limit surpassed in 2014) Net Debt/ EBITDA Limit: < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2014 and will fall below 2.5x from 2015 and below 2.0x in the end of period Oil Product Prices in Brazil Convergence of prices in Brazil to international benchmarks, according to diesel and gasoline price policy appreciated by the Board of Directors on November 29th, 2013. 52
  • 53. 2014-2018 BMP: Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs 261.7 9.1 261.7 39,8 9.9 61,3 60.5 54.9  Additional funding needs will be funded exclusively through new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged US$ bilhão US$ Billion  Free cash flow, before dividends, from 2015 on. 165,0 182.2 Annual borrowing needs 2014-2018 207,1 206.8 Gross – US$ 12.1 billion │Net – US$ 1.1 billion  Net borrowing needs below previous BMP due to: Sources Fontes Uses Usos Business Model Restructuring Cash Utilization Third-party resources (Debt) Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends) and Divestments • Higher oil production. • Expansion of refining capacity, reducing oil products imports. • Business model restructuring, which decreases cash needs throughout the BMP. Amortization Investments 53
  • 54. 2014-2018 BMP: Leverage and Net Debt/EBITDA Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA  Declining leverage, within maximum limit of 35% from 2015 on  Net Debt/EBITDA comply with the limit from 2015 on 54
  • 55. 2014 – 2018 Business and Management Plan The End 55