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08.10.2009 Presentation of President José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo about “LP Gas and Future Markets Perspectives” in Rio de Janeiro - RJ

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  • 1. LP Gas and Future Market Perspectives José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO. October, 8th 2009 1
  • 2. DISCLAIMER The presentation may contain forecasts CAUTIONARY STATEMENT about future events. Such forecasts merely FOR US INVESTORS reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", The United States Securities and Exchange "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", Commission permits oil and gas companies, "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only similar or analogous expressions, are used proved reserves that a company has to identify such forecasts. These predictions demonstrated by actual production or evidently involve risks and uncertainties, conclusive formation tests to be whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations economically and legally producible under may differ from current expectations, and existing economic and operating conditions. readers must not base their expectations We use certain terms in this exclusively on the information presented presentation, such as oil and gas herein. The Company is not obliged to resources, that the SEC’s guidelines update the presentation/such forecasts strictly prohibit us from including in in light of new information or future filings with the SEC. developments. 2
  • 3. MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY STRONG GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS EIA/DOE High Demand Scenario IEA Reference Scenario Global liquids demand scenarios EIA/DOE Low Demand Scenario Actual decline Additional Required Natural decline Capacity (b/d) Existing production 2020 | 42 – 51 mm 2030 | 66 – 85 mm • The global crisis impacted down the perspectives for demand growth, but in medium/long-term oil market outlook remains very strong • Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth 3 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, EIA International Energy Outlook 2009
  • 4. WORLD LP GAS DEMAND 80 72,3 21,0% 31,0% 5,5% 62 60 6,1% 12,1% 24,3% M illion Tons Mexico Brazil Venezuela Caribbean Argentina Others 40 33,9 28,1 20 18,1 11,2 10,6 2,1 0 Oceania Africa CIS Middle Latin Europe North Asia East America America 4 Source: Purvin & Gertz
  • 5. PRE-SALT POTENTIAL • Total Area: 149,000 km2 • Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%) • Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%) • Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%) 5
  • 6. ANNOUNCED RECOVERABLE VOLUMES IN SANTOS AND CAMPOS BASINS PRE-SALT Santos Pre-Salt announced recoverable volumes, can almost double Brazilian reserves. mi boe ~ 25-30 bn boe 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Higher estimates +5,400 10,000 5,000 14,093 Lower estimates 10,600 0 2008 Proven Santos and Campos Basins Proven Reserves* + Reserves* Pre-Salt Santos and Campos Basins (Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Pre-Salt Park)** (Tupi, Iara, Guará and Whale’s Park)** *SPE Criteria ** include Petrobras and Partners 6
  • 7. PRODUCTION INCREASE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCT DEMAND RNE Premium I 230 UPB (600 thous bpd) e REPLAN thous 150 thous Premium II (300 thous Revamp bpd bpd bpd) Others 33 thous. 2011 Dec/2012 1st phase: 2013 bpd REPAR 2nd phase: 2015 2010 Revamp Fuel Oil 25 thous 5,729 Clara  bpd Camarão 2011 Diesel Refinery 2010 7,5% p.y. Thous. bpd Jet Fuel 3,920 3,655 Naphta 2,680 2,876 400 2,400 2,301 150 2,257 274 Gasoline 1,906 1,944 1,855 112 182 208 119 109 1224 1,792 901 738 771 LPG 118 179 84 89 246 250 220 255 326 332 367 419 Oil Production - Brazil 208 215 230 257 2007 2008 2013E 2020E Oil and Natural Gas 7
  • 8. LP GAS COMSUMPTION IN BRAZIL Domestic LPG production in 2008: 6,71 million tons LPG Brazilian market grew 5,4% from 2004 to 2008, representing an average variation of 1,08% p.y. Present in all Brazilian municipalities 47 million homes are attended monthly. LP Gas Consumption (Thous. M3) Business 16 Plan 2020 14 12 10 T o s. h u 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Business Plan 2020 Industrial Residential Others After 2009 – Business Plan 2020 estimates 8 Source: ESTRATÉGIA / EMN & ANP
  • 9. LP GAS IMPORTS Importação Brasileira de GLP LPG IMPORTS (million ton/year) 3 • From 2000 to 2005 LPG Importação (milhão ton / ano) import fell due to Natural 2,5 Gas substitution and deregulation on LPG prices 2 at the end-user; 1,5 • Imports started to grow 1 from 2005 to 2008 due to higher domestic residential 0,5 and industrial demand 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Imports Origins (%) Middle East; 12% Americas; 35% Europe; 13% Imports coming mainly from America and Africa (2008) Africa; 40% Middle East Europe Africa Americas 9 Source: Petrobras
  • 10. FUTURE IMPORT ESTIMATES 3 • From 2009 to 2016 - LPG imports will fall due to PLANGAS and new refineries (Premium 1, Premium 2, RNEST); 2,5 • Imports started to grow from 2017 on – no significant increment in new production, despite of market 2 increasing in a pace of 1,7% per year M illio n T o n s p .y 1,5 1 0,5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Petrobras. * Data does not consider LPG production comming from pre-salt projects 10
  • 11. PETROBRAS – INFRASTRUCTURE 10 refineries PETROBRAS INFRASTRUCTURE Petrobras Refineries 1 shale oil processing unit Production:4,2 million tons/year 70% Petrobras / NORTH 30% Repsol REFAP S.A Production 0,4 million tons/year Petrobras Participation NE MIDDLE WEST 33 % Refinery of Rio Grande SE 5 NGPUs Petrobras Natural Gas 2 In Construction* Producing Units(NGPU) Production: 0,9 million tons/year S Refinery NGPU 7 onshore terminals Off Land Terminal 2 offshore terminals in Terminal in Land 3rd party off land terminal LPG Pipelines and construction Terminals 11 offshore terminals LPG Pipeline Ship 5 pipelines serving LPG, Cabotage Total extention:1.550 km Import 11
  • 12. PETROBRAS A VERTICAL INTEGRATED COMPANY Production Final consumer domestic A Distributor Dealer B Storage C D Final consumer bulk Import Petrobras is present in the entire supply chain 12
  • 13. LP GAS AND NATURAL GAS PARTICIPATION IN RESIDENTIAL MARKET LPG Residential Market Natural Gas Residential Market (thous. m3/y) (thous. M3/y)* 12.000 450.000 400.000 11.500 +5,4%p.y +1,7% p.y 350.000 11.000 300.000 250.000 10.500 200.000 10.000 150.000 100.000 9.500 50.000 9.000 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Residential Natural Gas market grows significantly more than LPG residential market 13 * Energetic equivalence between LPG and NG: 1,63m3 of LPG = 880m3 of NG
  • 14. LP GAS INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION • Strong replacement of LPG for Natural Gas, especially in the Industrial LPG Consumption white ceramic industry in Santa 1600 Catarina and São Paulo States thousand m3 1400 Other Metallurgy LPG in ceramics 1200 Ceramic 700 thousand m3 1000 600 500 Others 800 Santa Catarina 400 São Paulo 600 300 400 200 100 200 0 0 2000 2008 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 The strong shift of LPG in steel and ceramic segments is partially offset by a small increase in the consumption of chemicals and foods. 14 Sourse: ESTRATÉGIA/EMN
  • 15. PERSPECTIVES FOR LP GAS DOMESTIC MARKET FINAL REMARKS Difficulties: • Use of wood as a substitute product • Displacement by the entry of Natural Gas / LNG • Informality in retail sector Opportunities: • Modernization of 18 plants for bottling system (improvement of productivity and costs) • Growth of internal production with reduction of LPG imports 15
  • 16. For more information: Investor Relations www.petrobras.com.br/ri +55 21 3224-1510 petroinvest@petrobras.com.br 16

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