Presentation held at the Arkiv & Research 97 workshop, Stockholm. You are in the interesting position of being doubly affected by the Internet revolution. Your business, being media, will undergo complete rehaul over the coming years. And your job of information gathering and spreading, will likewise change completely.
AltaVista runs on Digitals biggest computer they ever built. The main server has 6GB main memory and 210 GB disk and 10 processors. Currently, normal phone calls cost 4.50 Swedish crowns per minute.
But is the Internet a qualitative revolution? First we need to understand what we mean by the Internet. That the Internet is based on TCP/IP and is packet-switched is more a historical and technical coincidence. The significance is that a critical mass of individuals have access to computers, and that these computers can all talk to each other using a common protocol. The consequences of this achievement are only slowly being revealed, but in principle this is a natural evolution of the computer.
first experiments in 1966 ARPA requested quotations in 1968 packet switching was widely doubted , but was desired for its fault tolerance . One objective was to build a system that could withstand any systematic attack on central nodes, such as from a nuclear strike. (the van Johnson story) AT&T was particularly pessimistic! 4 computers on ARPANET in 1969 in 1973 an effort began to connect ARPANET with mobile networks using synchronous satellites (SATNET) and mobile packet radio (PRNET), this effort became known as “internetting” part of this research effort resulted in Ethernet (in Hawaii) July 1977 a four-network demonstration linked ARPANET, SATNET, and the PRNET. TCP/IP version 4 came in 1978. the new internet protocolls, generally called TCP/IP, began to be developed in the early 70s , and ARPANET switched to them in January 1983 supercomputer centers programme in 1986 ( Senator Gore’s legislation) led to the NFSNET, which remained the backbone until April 1995 experimental electronic mail relay put into operation in 1989, interconnecting MCI Mail with the Internet. Compuserve, ATTMail, and Sprintmail followed shortly
According to (ftp://ftp.nw.com/zone), in january 96 there were 9.5 million hosts . Growth rate is 20% per quarter. Quantitatively, the success of the Internet is obvious. Less obvious is that the growth has been fairly stable. Note that the figures of the later half of the diagram are more accurate. As Gordon Bell has put it, when things get into the millions, people notice. Latest figures are for july 1996: 12,881,000 hosts.
The WWW was conceived by Tim Berners-Lee in March 1989 , in a CERN proposal. It first aimed at managing information about accelerators and experiments at CERN. The concept of “web” derived from an observation of how new staff at CERN were introduced to the work structure - by being given a few hints on who to talk to. At CERN there is and was a large turnover, several thousand people are involved yet seldom stay longer than 2 years. Also improves on problems with hierarchical data structures (such as file systems) and keyword based systems (such as bibliographic databases). “ Hypertext” was coined in the 60s by Ted Nelson . A more accurate label today might be “Hypermedia”. Other than using TCP/IP, a key idea is a uniform naming scheme that includes the service name. Also, in HTTP the client can send a list of the representations it understands, and the server reply appropriately. NCSA Mosaic came in 1992 , and was instantly popular. Netscape Communications was formed in 1994. There is not really any new technology in the Web concept, just a good combination of ideas.
Matthew Gray used the first web “spider”, that he wrote in the spring of 1993, to locate as many web servers as possible. Today there are over internetwork 600000 web servers (january 1997), according to Netcraft. The dotted Lines are my own estimates based on Netcraft and Internet society data.
by the way, this text is from the feb. 10th issue of businessweek, cut-and-pasted off their online edition.
1. The Internet Revolution history and significance Peter Magnusson [email_address]
2. Revolution Net2phone.com Sweden to USA for 17 cents per minute AltaVista indexes 31 million Web pages from 476,000 servers SE-Banken received over 30,000 customers within 2 months for full Internet banking over 35 Swedish daily newspapers have up-to-date material on the Web Amazon book store offers over 1 million titles and fast shipment Internet advertisement expected to reach 1 billion in 1997 Internet movie database covers 95.000 movies with 1.3 million entries every single major computer company has catalog online Switchboard.com 117 million entries, 5 million lookups per day
3. Revolution the Internet represents a fundamental and extensive force of change that will leave few areas of our lives unaffected
4. Overview <ul><li>computer revolution </li></ul><ul><li>history of the Internet </li></ul><ul><li>why is it significant? </li></ul><ul><li>business impact </li></ul><ul><li>media and research </li></ul><ul><li>the downside </li></ul>
5. Computer Revolution
6. Waves of Computerization 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 10 100 1000 Millions of Users Idea: International Data Corporation Back office Mini Mainframe Desktop PC Workstation “ Wired marketplace” PDA Web PC Laptop Internet
7. Technology microprocessor optical fiber memory 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 10 100 1000 Millions of Users
8. Big Business <ul><li>over 100 million computers will be sold in 1997 </li></ul><ul><li>Intel and Microsoft together have a market value of 152 billion dollars </li></ul>
10. What is it? <ul><li>Definition: all individuals have access to a computer, and all computers can talk to each other </li></ul>
11. Internet Evolution 1 10 1968 1973 1979 1984 1990 1995 Internet Hosts ARPANet DARPA Experiment <ul><li>1981-Bitnet created </li></ul><ul><li>1982-ARPANet adopts TCP/IP, CSNet created, first real Internet begins </li></ul><ul><li>1986-NSFNet created </li></ul><ul><li>1989-ARPANet ceases, first public commercial Internets created </li></ul><ul><li>1995-NSFNet ceases, non-USA nets >50% </li></ul>Source: Internet Society 2001 100 1,000 <ul><li>Kahn poses internet challenge 1972 </li></ul><ul><li>Cerf sketches TCP/IP concept March 1973 </li></ul><ul><li>Cerf-Kahn paper published May 1974 </li></ul><ul><li>Cerf team full spec - Dec 1974 </li></ul>Enterprise Internets <ul><li>1984-DNS created, DARPA divests Internet </li></ul>10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Universality
12. Principal Functions <ul><li>e-mail </li></ul><ul><li>hobbies and interests </li></ul><ul><li>news (newspapers, trade press, tv) </li></ul><ul><li>personal publishing </li></ul><ul><li>product information </li></ul><ul><li>software distribution </li></ul><ul><li>commerce </li></ul><ul><li>telephony </li></ul>
13. Why Now? <ul><li>telecom pricing </li></ul><ul><li>deregulation </li></ul><ul><li>critical mass </li></ul><ul><li>World Wide Web </li></ul>
14. Internet Explosion 13 Million host computers in 1996 20% growth per quarter terrabytes per day 25% in Europe 150000 in Sweden Source: ftp://ftp.nw.com/zone 1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 000 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994
15. WWW Design common protocol format negotiation addressing scheme hypertext browsers
16. WWW Design common protocol format negotiation addressing scheme hypertext browsers WWW
17. Web Growth May-96 Nov-96 10 100 1000 10000 100000 May-93 Nov-93 May-94 Nov-94 May-95 Nov-95 Web Sites Source: Matthew Gray (net.Genesis) Host Count 1000000 Hosts per site
18. What’s New?
19. Space, Time, and Reach <ul><li>speech: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>synchronized in time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>synchronized in space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a few can reach a few </li></ul></ul>
20. Space, Time, and Reach <ul><li>writing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>not synchronized in time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>not synchronized in space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a few can reach a few </li></ul></ul>
21. Space, Time, and Reach Space Time Reach Speech synch synch few to few Writing document any time few to few Printing document any time few to many Telephone anywhere synch few to few Radio/TV anywhere synch few to many Internet anywhere any time many to many
22. Significance the Internet will affect civilization as profoundly as did the invention of printing
23. Business Impact
24. Business Impact information, communication, coordination, and computer software are significant components of the economy
26. Netscape COMPAQ COMPUTER Founded 1982 LOTUS Founded 1982 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 350 250 150 50 Source: Business Week million USD NETSCAPE COMMUNICATIONS Founded 1994
27. Netscape <ul><li>DISTRIBUTION : Netscape grabbed the lead in its market and saved millions by making its software available on the Web. It has distributed 50 million browsers in just two years. </li></ul><ul><li>SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT : On the Web, Netscape gets instant feedback from the most demanding customers, speeding bug fixes and development. </li></ul><ul><li>TECHNICAL SUPPORT : Customers and software developers can get immediate help--answers to questions, documentation, and bug fixes--from its Web site. </li></ul><ul><li>SALES : When a prospective customer fills out a form on Netscape's site, the lead is routed to Netscape salespeople and resellers. </li></ul><ul><li>MARKETING : Netscape's home page, the most popular on the Web, gives it unparalleled visibility--and generates ad revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>INTERNAL OPERATIONS : Netscape ''eats its own dog food''--it uses its own software, often test versions, to run the business. </li></ul>Source: Business Week
29. Fundamentally New Media <ul><li>challenges distribution monopoly </li></ul><ul><li>no local markets </li></ul><ul><li>brutal price competition </li></ul><ul><li>hybrids appearing </li></ul>
30. Incredible Research Tool <ul><li>few questions I cannot answer via the Net </li></ul><ul><li>a dazzling array of sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>personal web servers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sponsored tutorials and FAQs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>government and education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cheap databases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>600,000 independent publishers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>intranets becoming mainstream </li></ul>
32. The Downside <ul><li>privacy concerns </li></ul><ul><li>controlling social or business behavior </li></ul><ul><li>intellectual property </li></ul><ul><li>threatens existing financial systems and tax structures </li></ul><ul><li>yet another haves/have-nots divide </li></ul><ul><li>superstress on Internet time </li></ul><ul><li>monoculture </li></ul>
33. thank you [email_address] http://www.sics.se/~psm/ar97/