By the Numbers - Book Summit 2013 - Toronto
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By the Numbers - Book Summit 2013 - Toronto

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Book marketing "By the Numbers" presented at Book Summit 2013 in Toronto. An overview of book publishing data with a focus on consumer marketing, the data that matter, some means of collecting and ...

Book marketing "By the Numbers" presented at Book Summit 2013 in Toronto. An overview of book publishing data with a focus on consumer marketing, the data that matter, some means of collecting and using it, and what it may mean for publishers.

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By the Numbers - Book Summit 2013 - Toronto By the Numbers - Book Summit 2013 - Toronto Presentation Transcript

  • By the NumbersBook SummitJune 2013Peter McCarthy
  • Executive SummaryThere are known knowns. These are things we know thatwe know. There are known unknowns. That is to say,there are things that we know we dont know. But thereare also unknown unknowns. There are things we dontknow we dont know.June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 3
  • Contents»  Baseline»  The types of things we know well»  What we don’t know»  Why what we know isn’t enough»  What we can know much better§  How: a hypothetical use case»  What it may mean4June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • Baseline(who I am, what I talk about when I talk about data, today’s goal)5June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • Who am IJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 6
  • Who am IJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 7
  • Consumer marketing data today (and yesterday)»  Demographics§  Gender, age group, income level,education level, etc.§  Note: I include geographic region here»  Psychographics§  Beliefs, values, attitudes, opinions,“lifestyles”»  Behaviors§  What people have done, are doing, andare most likely to do nextJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 8
  • Consumer marketing dataJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 9Consumer-Focused1.  Who2.  What3.  Why§  Product§  Place4.  Where5.  When6.  HowResults-Oriented§  Price§  PromotionMeasured§  What’s working§  What’s notOptimization?
  • My goal»  Offering the suggestion that we understand our business wellenough today»  That we understand core book buyers pretty well»  Advancing these hypotheses:§  That we reach many readers with books they do not want§  That there are far more potential readers for each book wepublish than we do reach§  That this happens because of the percentage of time we spendlooking at different types of data»  Offering a suggestion on what we might do, how, and withwhat results for earned, paid, and owned marketing effortsJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 10
  • The types of things we know well(A lot about books, the book marketplace, reader personae)11June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • US trade book sales continue shift online…June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 12Source: 2013 BookstatsBrick & Mortar8.037.472011 2012Net Sales ($B)5.726.932011 2012Net Sales ($B)
  • …and to eBooks, though more slowly this yearJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 13642918692,1093,0422008 2009 2010 2011 2012+199%+143%+43%eBook Net Sales ($M)Logarithmic regression: R2=0.7853Source: 2013 Bookstats+355%
  • eBook sales vary by categoryJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 14Source: 2013 Bookstats461985852164841,2914695921,8312010 2011 2012eBook Net Sales ($M)AdultFictionAdultNonfictionJuvenileFiction
  • This data is required to manage our businesses»  And there is much more than just the Bookstats data I’ve gone overhere»  We also know a great deal based on our own internal data»  We also watch aggregate consumer trends and use digital platformsto derive insights»  Result:§  Informs strategy, aiding primarily in macro, strategic decision-making§  We still can’t predict the future: all eBook projections way off…June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 15Etc.
  • The book buyer»  Peter Hildick-Smith of Codextook a look at 30k past 12month book buyers andasked:»  “Where did find out about thebook you last bought?”June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 1631%14%10%5%6%Physical RetailerReccomendationsAnalog Publicity4th Online MediaOnline BooksellersSource: Challenges to Book Discovery, DBW 2013»  13% of readers recommend to 38%A Very Nice FindRecommendations
  • §  Has created the personae of the“power buyer”§  17% of whom report acquiring “atleast weekly”§  Skews female (it’s a not a he or ashe, it’s a blend)§  Cluster in the 18 – 55 range§  Are well off, professionals, manyclerical workers, and homeworkers§  Favor eBooks over physical§  Many shifting toward tablets and, itseems, reading less§  Preferred tablet becoming iPadTop acquisition source(results to right) >>BISG’s “Power Buyer”The eBook Reader and “Power Buyer”June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 17How Acquired?0% 50% 100%GoogleeBooks.comLibrary or LibrarySiteApple iBooksBarnes & NobleAmazonPowerReaderStandardReaderSource: 2013 BISG Consumer Attitudes toward E-Books
  • The “book and eBook reader”»  Reading and eReading habits§  75% of the US population 16 and over reads§  33% of that group had either an eReader or a Tablet§  67% of book readers said they had read a book in the past 12months§  Demographically diverse67% of US book readers age > 16 report theyHave read a book in the past 12 months=~157,754,850 potential consumersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 18Source: Pew
  • What we don’t know(Most of which won’t hurt us)19June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • Precise eBook market dynamics…June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 2064%22%10%3%“Conventional Wisdom”Amazon NookApple iBooks OthereBook Market Share Market Dynamics•  Conclusive Data onPricingLots of energy. smart thinking,and facts, but…•  The Effects of Self-publishingHuge. ISBN registrationsthrough Bowker + unknownmasses of KDP authors. Beliefthey drive average pricesdown, hinder “discoverability”•  Much at all about AppleSurprising, given all the fuss.
  • Why it isn’t enough(hypothesis: it is what we need, just not all of what we need)21June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • The industry is making a fairly smooth shift…June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 22Source: BISG Trends; BookstatsTotal US Trade Revenue with eBook Revenue Nested ($M)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002010 2011 2012eBooks PrintBut we’ve mostly managed to stay afloat while others have thrived…
  • June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 23Unfair comp 1: Amazon share price: May ‘08 – May ‘13$78.45 / SHARE$269.07 / SHARE2008 2009 2010 2011 2012100200300
  • Unfair comp #2: iPad growth 2010 – Q1 2013June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 24
  • Unfair comp #3: Apple profits, same periodJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 25
  • In the end, here’s why I think what we know isn’t enough»  Publishers need to be demonstrably the best at connecting authorsand their titles to the most, most right readers – efficiently andrepeatedly»  What we know today allows us to run our businesses and manage ashift. That alone is no small feat…but…»  Basically, we’re surrounded…Except if we can better reach those …157,754,850 potential consumersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 26
  • What we can know much better(hypothesis: it’s easier than we think)27June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • “Real” consumersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 28»  That consumer for that book»  Enough of an understanding and approach on the spectrumof consumer relationships and how to have them»  We don’t know most of those 150M potential consumersWell-knownLightlytouched,slightlyknownCurrentlyUnknown butInteresting
  • More about every potential reader»  Demographics»  Psychographics»  BehaviorsJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 29§  By using the consumer data that we dohave§  But vastly increasing our efforts aroundaugmenting that with “raw” consumer data§  Using tools to systematize and, if possible,scale the knowledge and efforts1.  Who2.  What3.  Why4.  Where5.  When6.  How
  • 1 in 4 people in the world use social mediaJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 3016.9 million Canadians in 2012
  • Some (really useful) sources of consumer dataJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 31§  Social GraphThey know consumers.Now tying to offline sources.§  Ad PlatformOpen (APIs, Tools) andOptimized.§  Constant A/B testingFail fast, fix.§  Result: Happy Users/AdvertisersDespite incredible concerns overprivacy. Relevance trumps it.§  Search (& lots else)Massive share, joyoususers.§  Ad PlatformStill the of ad inventory at anall time high.§  Literally Building a BrainYes. All products data-driven.§  OpenAPIs and tools§  Massive growthWild adoption and usage.§  Ad PlatformTargeting getting there butthey know what they need toknow.§  TimelyAlmost “now.”§  Open (for now)Can get at the data.
  • Obviously great tools for outbound marketing»  And outbound best practices must be understood to execute»  However, it is when we§  Use them in specific public-facing ways…§  turn them around and extract consumer data…§  and mash that data with other sources of data…»  That we can triangulate a potential consumer-set vis-à-vis thethree attributes we need to market most effectively…»  Then we’ve got who, what, when, where, how, and why weneed to put the right message in front of the right person atthe right place at the right timeJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 32
  • How: Big data, little data…right data, right time…June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 33Big Data§  Enterprise-scale tools§  Batch data extraction viaAPIs§  Used for listening, real-time platform monitoring§  Marketing automation§  Business intelligencedashboards and mash-ups§  Decision support,exceptions reporting§  Data-warehousing§  Report generation§  More…§  Lighter-weight tools tosupport same tactics§  Require “cobbling” totriangulate multiple datapoints§  But…§  Are readily accessible,easy-to-use, require lessorganizational change…§  And they workAre not mutually exclusive – in fact, employing both is a best practice
  • FWIW: I use a subset of ~100 tools to triangulate, plan & executeJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 34Social Analytics§  Simply Measured§  Peek Anaytics§  SproutSocial§  Trackur§  Tweriod§  Tweepi§  Buffer + Bit.ly§  Twitter Ad Interface§  Etc.§  Facebook Insights§  Facebook AdInterface§  FacebookPowerEditor toCreate Audiences§  Facebook LookalikeAudiences§  EdgeRank Checker§  LinkedIn Ad Editor§  Pinterest Analytics§  Google Alerts§  Goodreads compauthors§  Etc.Web/SEOSupport Tools§  Google Trends§  Google AdWords§  Keyword / PlacementSuggestion Tool§  Amazon search autofill§  Google search autofill§  Compete§  Quantcast§  SEO Moz§  SEO Quake§  Google universal analytics§  Amazon search auto-fill§  Amazon comp authors§  Librarything tags§  Google search auto-fill§  Etc.§  Excel Plugins§  Various Web Us§  IFTT§  Lots of Chrome Extensions/Apps§  Others
  • Some Use Cases(hypothesis: sample triangulating)35June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • Google TrendsJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 36
  • Amazon auto-fill (not logged in, cookies cleared)June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 37
  • What it may mean(hypothesis: quick burst of pain, then good stuff)38June 2013 By the Numbers - Book SummitSEO Quake
  • Google keyword suggestion toolJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 39
  • Facebook Ad InterfaceJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 40
  • Facebook Insights > Power Editor > Custom/LookalikeJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 41
  • June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 42Facebook’s “graph search”Source: John Loomer Digital
  • June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 43Facebook “sentiment” beyond likes
  • Trackur (or Google Alerts or…)June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 44
  • Peek AnalyticsJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 45
  • TweriodJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 46
  • Simply MeasuredJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 47
  • Google AnalyticsJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 48
  • Then perhaps more till there’s “enough to go on” then..June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 49»  (Re)assure goals are understood andachievable»  Light, initial plan»  Align everything with attributes andgoals§  Meta-data through to creative»  Put all measurement in place§  Google goals, affiliate tracking, etc.§  Internal data (sales, etc.)Specifics differ but worksfor inbound/outbound,earned, paid, “rented”, etc.Ready, set…
  • GoJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 50LaunchMeasureOptimizePrune/ChangeCommunicate
  • What it May Mean(hypothesis: all in the eye of the beholder…)51June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • The smart business of the future will correlateand compute a mix of data includingdemographics, psychographics, web analytics,social analytics and business intelligence tocreate predictive scenarios that can be deliveredin real time at the point of need.-- Paul Simbeck-HampsonMarketing ConsultantConstant triangulation – however you can do itJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 52
  • These guys predicted the future!June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 53
  • Some will have a harder time than othersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 54§  C-Level misalignment§  Over-emphasis on creativeplanning§  Too often the “what” then the“who”§  Fixed title marketing budgetsthat can’t “move” or change§  Slow approval processes§  Over-emphasis on attribution& direct ROI out of the gates§  Over emphasis on “owningthe consumer relationship”
  • Skillsets, experience, orientation, or willingness keyJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 55Source: The Soda Report, 2013ChallengeData Collection 36%Data entry 9%Data storage 7%Data search 14%Data sharing 16%Data analysis 54%Data cleansing 30%Creating value/insights 49%Other 6%Q. What challenges does your company face with data management?
  • Publishers as best connector of book to reader results from:»  Being marketing scientists, marketing quants, or getting some§  They are very useful.§  Understand that search and social are consumer activities/tools butbusiness ones as well. Heavy duty ones. Like coop. Remember coop?»  Obtaining true, live consumer insights§  In the wild, as they’re behaving, living, speaking up.»  Taking action based on their own knowledge + data»  Optimizing»  Lather, rinse, repeat»  Market the marketing all along the way (because they know whathappened)Expanded reach beyond core book buyersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 56
  • And if you can scale it…»  The Ever-Learning Marketer or Marketing Organization§  Puts the right book in front of the right consumer at the right time§  Optimizes marketing spend§  Improves stakeholder relations through rich communication,clear accountability, and an abundance of creativity (there’s a lotin the data!)§  Does this in partnership with other areas and eventuallyimproves the entire organizations capabilities, cross-pollinatinglearningJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 57
  • Smarter, ever-improving marketing at scaleTo become a chess grandmaster alsoseems to take about ten years. (Onlythe legendary Bobby Fisher got to thatelite level in less than that amount oftime: it took him nine years.) And what’sten years? Well, it’s roughly how long ittakes to put in ten thousand hours ofhard practice. Ten thousand hours isthe magic number of greatness.” —p. 41, OutliersJune 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit 58
  • Thank you very much(hypothesis: probably one or two too many slides…)59June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • Questions?(I hope so…)60June 2013 By the Numbers - Book Summit
  • By the NumbersBook SummitJune 2013Peter McCarthy