The Global Future Steady progress or cataclysmic change? Pete O’Dell [email_address] www.swanisland.net

Context Suspend belief – forget obstacles for today World, national, local views Future discussion and vision Framework Trends Emerging markets The “Next Big Thing” “ Where there is no vision, the people perish” Proverbs 29:18

Suspend belief – forget obstacles for today

World, national, local views

Future discussion and vision

Framework

Trends

Emerging markets

The “Next Big Thing”

“ Where there is no vision, the people perish”

Proverbs 29:18

Food for thought….ancient to present day “ Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.” -- Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute “ Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a vast organic system…The earth [is] not only becoming covered by myriads of grains of thought, but becoming enclosed in a single thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925 “ There is nothing permanent except change.” – -- Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)

“ Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.” -- Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

The Dimensional Model of progress 0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes – stay away! 1 st dimension – trade along natural routes – river valleys, spice routes 2 nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles 3 rd dimension – air travel, air cargo 4 th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the world starting with the telegraph & telephone Decreasing time between each dimension Is there a 5 th dimension Source: Brave New World – William Knoke (recommended reading!)

0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes – stay away!

1 st dimension – trade along natural routes – river valleys, spice routes

2 nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles

3 rd dimension – air travel, air cargo

4 th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the world starting with the telegraph & telephone

Decreasing time between each dimension

Is there a 5 th dimension

Source: Brave New World – William Knoke (recommended reading!)

A look in the rear-view mirror…. Where were you: December 31, 1999 September 11, 2001 What’s happened since then? Would you go back if you could? What has disappeared in your lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex)

Where were you:

December 31, 1999

September 11, 2001

What’s happened since then?

Would you go back if you could?

What has disappeared in your lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex)

Scenarios – next 30 years: Upward growth spiral: despite terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time) Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing 25 years (Dark Ages lasted several lifetimes) Worldwide recession/depression: W orld goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s) Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (SARS gave us a quick look at this)

Upward growth spiral: despite terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time)

Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing 25 years (Dark Ages lasted several lifetimes)

Worldwide recession/depression: W orld goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s)

Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (SARS gave us a quick look at this)

The World at a crossroad The US/world at war with terrorism Worldwide economic slowdown (recovery?) What about China? Subprime mortgage meltdown big concern Internet & telecom bubble a distant memory Can the world absorb Moore’s law? US the one legitimate super-power, but under extreme world pressure Global have’s and have-not’s Problem spread increasing – disease/famine (persistent) to ID/IP theft (emerging)

The US/world at war with terrorism

Worldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)

What about China?

Subprime mortgage meltdown big concern

Internet & telecom bubble a distant memory

Can the world absorb Moore’s law?

US the one legitimate super-power, but under extreme world pressure

Global have’s and have-not’s

Problem spread increasing – disease/famine (persistent) to ID/IP theft (emerging)

Intertwined worldwide issues Energy Food/water Health/disease Global warming Pollution Languages Trade blocks Intellectual property Terrorism/security Education Population growth Aging populations Religion Political Standards Paradoxes abound

Energy

Food/water

Health/disease

Global warming

Pollution

Languages

Trade blocks

Intellectual property

Terrorism/security

Education

Population growth

Aging populations

Religion

Political

Standards

Paradoxes abound

Over-arching trends Shrinking world (globalization/communications) Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras) Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay) 24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overload English gaining as worldwide language Power shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governments Contradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

Shrinking world (globalization/communications)

Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras)

Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)

24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overload

English gaining as worldwide language

Power shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governments

Contradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

The Information Age: Human Capital/Intellectual Property Few physical resources needed – clean, high paying jobs Small groups can build global products Small groups can destroy worldwide (virus) Bits versus Atoms EFT versus cement blocks Napster versus Compact Disks Virtuous upward spirals

Few physical resources needed – clean, high paying jobs

Small groups can build global products

Small groups can destroy worldwide (virus)

Bits versus Atoms

EFT versus cement blocks

Napster versus Compact Disks

Virtuous upward spirals

Business trends Increased productivity & offshore outsourcing Mass customization and localization Merger of the titans, buy versus build (HP/Compaq, AT&T/ComCast ) Innovation in small companies Intense drive to streamline and retool operations - little complacency Rapid product obsolescence Economies of scale are a curse and blessing Global companies bigger than countries

Increased productivity & offshore outsourcing

Mass customization and localization

Merger of the titans, buy versus build (HP/Compaq, AT&T/ComCast )

Innovation in small companies

Intense drive to streamline and retool operations - little complacency

Rapid product obsolescence

Economies of scale are a curse and blessing

Global companies bigger than countries

Technology trends Digital convergence – data, voice, video Internet/WWW connected Moore’s law marches on – faster, better, cheaper – chips, storage, & more Wireless – all shapes and flavors Open source software movement Security an increasingly important trend

Digital convergence – data, voice, video

Internet/WWW connected

Moore’s law marches on – faster, better, cheaper – chips, storage, & more

Wireless – all shapes and flavors

Open source software movement

Security an increasingly important trend

Internet trends Great for publishing documents to people E-Bay, Mapquest, Amazon, Yahoo No end in sight for global adoption Wireless access – mobile information Broadband growing, phone access the norm XML (e X tensible M arkup L anguage) Web Services and Web 2.0 have great promise Still fragile, frustrating and immature – groaning under the weight of success

Great for publishing documents to people

E-Bay, Mapquest, Amazon, Yahoo

No end in sight for global adoption

Wireless access – mobile information

Broadband growing, phone access the norm

XML (e X tensible M arkup L anguage)

Web Services and Web 2.0 have great promise

Still fragile, frustrating and immature – groaning under the weight of success

Emerging technology today Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and Smartphones RFID and embedded sensors Fuel cells – alternative energy Home networking Knowledge management Social networking Blogging/Life Recording

Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and Smartphones

RFID and embedded sensors

Fuel cells – alternative energy

Home networking

Knowledge management

Social networking

Blogging/Life Recording

The Next Big Thing (NBT) Alters the course of mankind – significant impact Difficult to predict and understand at the onset – many times fits and starts before taking off Generational deployment & incremental improvement Early civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbers Advancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rights Recent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computing Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace

Alters the course of mankind – significant impact

Difficult to predict and understand at the onset – many times fits and starts before taking off

Generational deployment & incremental improvement

Early civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbers

Advancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rights

Recent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computing

Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace

Nano-technology – NBT? Really, really small Simple - eat escaped oil in ocean Complex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a living being Sensors – watch for individual cancer cells Self replication – clone more of the same Physics: Silicon stronger than steel at the molecular level

Really, really small

Simple - eat escaped oil in ocean

Complex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a living being

Sensors – watch for individual cancer cells

Self replication – clone more of the same

Physics: Silicon stronger than steel at the molecular level

The Hydrogen Economy–NBT? Alternative to imported oil Limitless supply Ideal for fuel cells Combustion by-product is water Manufactured by extra electricity passing through water Massive infrastructure change required Fixed buildings versus cars!

Alternative to imported oil

Limitless supply

Ideal for fuel cells

Combustion by-product is water

Manufactured by extra electricity passing through water

Massive infrastructure change required

Fixed buildings versus cars!

Biotechnology – NBT? Non-human Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought resistant cotton Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets Potential to solve many of the world’s problems Fraught with regulation and protest Human Genome mapping Cloning and stem cell research debates Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation? “ All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen Elizabeth

Non-human

Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought resistant cotton

Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets

Potential to solve many of the world’s problems

Fraught with regulation and protest

Human

Genome mapping

Cloning and stem cell research debates

Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others

Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation?

“ All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen Elizabeth

NBT Discussion Additional candidates? Mind to network link – brain based Google Unmanned space exploration Ubiquitous wireless computing Realistic? Barriers? Enablers? Timeframe for implementation? Impact on society? Should there be a NBT X prize?

Additional candidates?

Mind to network link – brain based Google

Unmanned space exploration

Ubiquitous wireless computing

Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?

Timeframe for implementation?

Impact on society?

Should there be a NBT X prize?

Parting Thoughts What does all this mean to you? What actions will you take? Ignore Invest Embrace How do you manage the risks? What about your great-grandkids?

What does all this mean to you?

What actions will you take?

Ignore

Invest

Embrace

How do you manage the risks?

What about your great-grandkids?

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