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Nov 2012 global warming drought trend

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A record of drought trends under global warming.

A record of drought trends under global warming.

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  • 1. Drought trends Dr. Peter Carter
  • 2. Drought trends USA 2012
  • 3. Global average temperature increase
  • 4. All the worlds best food producing regions are in the Northern hemisphereAny effect on NH food production increases world food prices severelyincreasing the Global South’s food insecurity.
  • 5. Increasing global drought 1950-2009Drought Palmer Droughtunder global Severity Index PDSIwarming:a reviewAiguo DaiWiley Jan 2011FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009,(using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity, netradiation, and wind speed used in
  • 6. Increasing global drought affects most of the worlds best producing regions Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSIDrought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai Wiley Jan 2011FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009,(using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity, netradiation, and wind speed used in the IPCC AR4 from the 20th century
  • 7. Increasing regional Northern hemisphere drought 1950-2009 Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSIDrought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai Wiley Jan 2011FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009, (using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation,humidity, net radiation, and wind speed used in the IPCC AR4 from the 20th century
  • 8. http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.htmlPalmer DroughtSeverity index
  • 9. Palmer DroughtSeverity index
  • 10. Palmer DroughtSeverity index
  • 11. 12 monthsUCL algorithm
  • 12. Northern hemisphere12 monthsUCL algorithm
  • 13. 12 monthsUCL algorithm
  • 14. 12 monthsUCL algorithm
  • 15. NASA GISS
  • 16. NHSH Average temp increase NASA GISS
  • 17. Decadal Northern hemisphere warming trend
  • 18. Perception of climate changeJames Hansena,1,Contributed by James Hansen, March 29, 2012 With global warming NH summer heat extremes are increasing.
  • 19. 2012 to September NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
  • 20. 2012 to September NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/
  • 21. Rapid 2012 record loss of Arctic albedo coolingRapid loss of Far North and Arctic snow and ice albedo cooling could be expected toincrease NH drought. Research indicates the jet stream is being altered with atendency to prolonging droughts.
  • 22. June 2012 record loss of Arctic snow cover albedo coolingNorthern HemisphereVisible SatelliteMonthly Departure(from 1971-2000mean)It is thought that thefaster retreat of thespring-summer far Northsnow cover is a big partof increasing NH drought.Variation from the post-1967 historical norm inJune snow cover, June2012. Dark orangecorresponds to between75 and 100 percentbelow average. Image:From Rutgers UniversityClimate Lab
  • 23. July 2012 record Greenland ice surface loss of albedo coolingMelt water covering the Greenland ice surface lowers albedo Less albedo reflection cooling http://bprc.osu.edu/wiki/Greenland_Ice_Albedo_Monitoring
  • 24. 2012 record loss of Arctic sea ice albedo and record loss of Greenland albedo cooling

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