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STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES
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STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TELECOM INITATIVES/ TECHNOLOGIES

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  • 1. GLGi: Telco Equipment Purchasing Stephen Sutkowski President Telecom Strategic Visions
  • 2.
    • Council Member Biography
    • Stephen Sutkowski is the President of Telecom Strategic Visions, a consultant firm. He has working knowledge of business processes (service activation, provisioning, service assurance, and customer care), network functional and performance requirements, evaluation and analysis of suppliers for routing, switching, gateways, active and pasive fiber equipment, and optical networking equipment, and actual deployment. Mr. Sutkowski’s experience includes a practical working knowledge of wireless networks for broadband expansion, methodologies, and backhaul technologies. Previously, he has served as a Senior Manager for Verizon and Director for GTE.
  • 3.
    • Topics
    • Outlook on fiber access and optical core, metro, and long-haul networking initiatives
    • The further expansion of Ethernet/IP platforms for telecom core and enterprise markets
    • Migration efforts from circuit switch/TDMA to packet switched environments with progressions for MPLS
    • 3G and 3.5G deployment trends and projected 4G initiatives such as WiMax and LTE
  • 4.
    • About GLG Institute
    • GLG Institute (GLGi SM ) is a professional organization focused on educating business and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It is designed to revolutionize the professional education market by putting the power of programming into the hands of the GLG community.
    • GLGi hosts hundreds of Seminars worldwide each year.
    • GLGi clients receive two seats to all Seminars in all Practice Areas.
    • GLGi’s website enables clients to:
      • Propose Seminar topics, agenda items and locations
      • View and RSVP to scheduled and proposed Seminars
      • Receive a daily briefing with new posts on your favorite tickers, subject areas and from trusted Council Members
      • Share Seminar details with colleagues or friends
  • 5.
    • Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts
    • John Aronsohn
    • Vice President, TMT
    • Gerson Lehrman Group
    • 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
    • New York, NY 10022
    • 212-984-3673
    • [email_address]
    • Aaron Liberman
    • Managing Director, Sales and Marketing
    • Gerson Lehrman Group
    • 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
    • New York, NY 10022
    • 212-984-3684
    • [email_address]
    • Carly Pisarri
    • Process Manager
    • Gerson Lehrman Group
    • 850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
    • New York, NY 10022
    • 212-750-1435
    • [email_address]
  • 6.
    • IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER – By making contact with this/these Council Members and participating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agree that you must not seek out material non-public or confidential information from Council Members. You understand and agree that the information and material provided by Council Members is provided for your own insight and educational purposes and may not be redistributed or displayed in any form without the prior written consent of Gerson Lehrman Group. You agree to keep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the business information of Gerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until such information becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure may be required by law, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they may have and understand the Council Members may be constrained by obligations or agreements in their ability to consult on certain topics and answer certain questions. Please note that Council Members do not provide investment advice, nor do they provide professional opinions. Council Members who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship is established from their participation in this project.
    • You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is not responsible for the content of materials produced by Council Members. You understand and agree that you will not hold Council Members or Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided to you by the Council Members. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoever arising from your attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but not limited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, and you agree to release Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilities that result from your participation in this event or the information provided by Council Members, regardless of whether or not such liability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall not be liable for any incidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use of the information provided at this event.
  • 7. Goals and Objectives
    • Projected business initiatives for next-generation broadband and multi-service/ multi-application platforms
    • New technology infusion where applicable for these platforms with consideration of maturity and scalability of equipment and components
    • Efforts in core, long-haul, metro, and edge network architecture and infrastructure optimization
    • Projection for capex and opex trends for next two-three year period for wireline and wireless networks
  • 8. Scope of Telecom Areas of Interest
    • Expansions in fiber deployment for the edge/ access network or alternative measures for triple-play deployment.
    • Optical core, metro, and long-haul network capacity, density, and optimization.
    • Migration from traditional circuit switch/TDMA networks to packet switching with emphasis on MPLS, Ethernet/IP, T-MPLS, PBT, and related technologies.
    • Continued 3G and 3.5 G wireless deployments with projected 4G efforts to include LTE, WiMax, CDMA Rev. C, etc. Also projections on wireless network traffic backhaul solutions.
  • 9. FTTX and Triple-Play Progression
    • Verizon continuing FTTH at rate of 3 million lines passed per year (9 million at end of 2007) with 18 million by 2010
      • Adaptation of GPON started in 2007; projected majority of new lines passed as GPON in 2008
      • Progression to intra-city MDUs as either direct fiber within buildings or VDSL2 deployment
      • Continued use of Switched Digital Video and video over RF with IPTV as VoD; expect introduction of IPTV as broadcast mechanism within next couple of years
      • Major vendors are Tellabs, Motorola. Alcatel/Lucent, Corning, and ADC
  • 10. FTTX and Triple-Play Progression (cont’d.)
    • AT&T’s U-verse FTTN target projections in state of flux
      • Use of Home Zone (a hybrid satellite/high-speed DSL service) as alternative for triple-play where U-verse not yet penetrated
      • Stabilization of IPTV platform achieved in 2007
      • Potential for acquisition of satellite provider (EchoStar) within 12 months to gain existing video market and regional penetration
      • Use of FTTH in Greenfield areas; GPON also projected in future deployments for these areas
      • Major vendors are Alcatel/Lucent, Cisco (Scientific-Atlanta) and Ericsson (for GPON)
  • 11. FTTX and Triple-Play Progression (cont’d.)
    • Asian carriers have seen growth in FTTH by 20% annual basis with 15% projected for 2008. GPON now technology of choice over EPON.
    • France Telecom has adapted GPON for FTTH rollout with Spain’s Telefonica and BT following suit at least in Greenfield areas.
    • Expectation for growth of 20% for fiber access in India on annual basis with slightly smaller projections for other emerging markets.
    • Projected capex for FTTX growth in U.S. at slight increase over next 2-3 year period with peak estimated in 2009/ 2010. Long-term opex savings of fiber over cooper at 50-55%.
  • 12. Next Generation Optical Networking for Core, Metro, and Long-Haul
    • Expansion of Optical Switches in Network Footprint
      • Replacement of existing electronic switches with optical gear (cross-connects) to increase switching capacity in high traffic areas
      • Potential for replacement of 5 electronic switches with one optical switch
      • Existing RFP by Verizon may see potential value between $500 million and $1 billion over 5 year period
      • Potential vendors of interest include Ciena, Alcatel/ Lucent, Tellabs, Nortel, and Fujitsu
    • AT&T also investigating network optimization for optical switching
  • 13. Next Generation Optical Networking for Core, Metro, and Long-Haul (cont’d.)
    • Continued progression for 40G capacity gains for network upgrades and intercity and long-haul traffic.
      • Major RBOCs developing scalable 40G platforms with continued 2-3 year development for inter-city deployment.
      • Verizon providing 40G scalability in Europe with ultra-long haul networking using Nortel solution. Provides seamless evolution from 10G to 40G.
    • Selected carriers in US and international markets completing 100 Gbps field tests.
    • Verizon looking to select vendor for major 100 Gbps optical long-haul transport trial next year.
  • 14. Integrated Packet Switching on Optical Platforms (Multifunctional Approach)
    • Concept also known as “God Box” since it is capable of Sonet, wavelength switching, and connection-oriented device with universal switching fabric
    • Verizon has RFP out looking at approaches to include carrier Ethernet technologies, Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS), Transport-MPLS, and potentially Provider Backbone Transport (PBT)
    • Verizon objective is to include solution as “second supplier” to Tellab’s ROADM deployment
    • Potential vendors are Fujitsu, Alcatel/Lucent, or Nortel, among others
  • 15. Present Optical Network Architecture
  • 16. Future Optical Network Architecture Core Nodes Edge Nodes End Users
  • 17. Multiservice Edge Devices for Enterprise
    • Another “God Box” concept that goes beyond conventional router/switch capabilities
    • Provides interfaces to a series of technologies including IP, Ethernet, Frame Relay, ATM, and voice
    • Verizon has existing RFP targeted for Tier 2 markets in Europe where they have multiple nodes for Frame Relay and ATM but less traffic
    • Full interface capabilities not expected to be available until 2009 or 2010, but limited platforms are to be deployed in late 2008
    • Potential vendors are Alcatel/Lucent, Cisco, Juniper, Siemans, and Nortel
  • 18. Other Wireline Initiatives of Strategic Interest
    • Graceful, long-term migration of Frame Relay and ATM consumers to IP and MPLS. Use of pseudowires to allow users to continue to operate ATM/Frame Relay while moving traffic onto carrier’s MPLS network.
    • Launch of Virtual Private LAN Services (VPLS) as Layer 2 service targeting Ethernet customers in 2007 and beyond.
    • Use of advanced edge routers with expansive Ethernet port densities and scalabilities, aggregation capabilities, and multi-service and multi-applications under increased consecutive user sessions. Vendors include Juniper, Redback, Cisco, Alcatel/Lucent, and Tellabs.
  • 19. Strategic Outlook for Wireless Networks
    • Continued progression for 3G (CDMA EvDo Rev. A, W - CDMA, etc.) and GSM deployments, with upgrades of CDMA Rev. A in U.S. coming to closure in 2008
    • Growth in 3G deployments in emerging marketplaces (e.g., India, Middle East, and Latin America) in some cases concentrating on voice-centric services initially
    • Trial and deployment of 4G initiatives to include WiMax with Sprint and LTE (Long Term Evolution) with Verizon
      • Sprint to reexamine WiMax timetable/milestones
      • Verizon to run initial LTE tests in 2008
  • 20. Strategic Outlook for Wireless Networks (cont’d.)
    • New outlook on open platforms for new service and application innovations and development
      • Google Android platform provides standardized software development platform for multiple vendors and carriers
      • Verizon Wireless introducing option for customers to use wireless devices, software, and applications outside of those in Verizon’s service package
    • With CDMA upgrades being completed and 4G initiatives not to be deployed until the future in the U.S., wireless infrastructure capex will be flat (with potential declines) in the next 2-3 years
  • 21. Wireless Backhaul Capacity Issue
    • Traditional approach of using T1/E1 lines over copper (favoring cross-connects) cannot meet future broadband capacity expansions
    • Various mechanisms under investigation to include microwave point-to-point, WiMax, Ethernet/IP platforms, fiber-optic networking, and hybrid radio access/leased fiber (such as provided by FiberTower in markets with overlapping carriers)
    • Existing cross-connects will be continued for limited period (next 2-3 years) with provisions for other technologies in trial or under development in that period
  • 22. Summary of Presentation
    • Wireline will see potential for slight/moderate capex growth for next 2-3 year period in meeting priority objectives in fiber access and triple/play deployment and optical capacity and optimization
    • Wireless will see flat to declining capex with completion of 3G upgrades and investigation into 4G platforms
    • Expected growth in mergers/acquisitions of smaller vendors/suppliers by the larger companies in gaining synergies for core and enterprise markets
    • Potential price wars between telco and cable industries in providing advanced triple/play services for consumers and increased mobile applications

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