steve_raney@cities21.org Instant Carpooling

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  • Some graphs by the US Gov and Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas predicting peak oil on or before 2010. [if we use this slide, we should take some commentary from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
  • steve_raney@cities21.org Instant Carpooling

    1. 1. Instant Carpooling <ul><li>Steve Raney </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cities21 new mobility non-profit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Patent: Wireless carpool assistant </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Match within 3 days </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Instant Ridesharing (IRS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>within 15 minutes. </li></ul></ul>
    2. 2. Empty seats: policy <ul><li>1000X more cost-effective </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Duh! Reduce demand </li></ul></ul><ul><li>IRS: Reduce 1 SOV  phone </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Metro extension, 1 SOV  new Mercedes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Homeland economic security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SF Bay Bridge in ’89 quake, MN I-35W bridge collapse </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need rapid capacity response </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Policy jumpstarts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Charge $8/day suburban parking  23% commute shift </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extend commute benefits & tax breaks to DRS commuting. Federal workers, especially </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More HOV lanes. </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. “ Obvious” Idea <ul><li>Shaheen: 1% SOV mode shift </li></ul><ul><li>11 past, 8 current, 10 future </li></ul><ul><ul><li>see www.dynamicridesharing.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zimride, GoLoco, nuride, Carticipate, Goose Networks, RideNow, ecolane, Seattle Smart Traveler, Google RideFinder, Hoverport, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invention prevalence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not obvious </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Carnegie Mellon West theme. 4 teams vote no </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Goose. $111K WSDOT grant, 322 rides, $345/ride </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RideNow. 12 out of 3K BART recruiting. </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Still not obvious <ul><li>Sparse GIS distribution </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Carticipate: 10K members (need 1.5M) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Avego: 2,400 members </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Members form permanent carpools & drop out. </li></ul>
    5. 5. What will work? <ul><li>$10/gal, 10% commuters, 100% GPS (API) smartphones + in-vehicle navigation systems </li></ul><ul><li>Clever </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuride corridor strategy (not an “area”) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ZimRide college portals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Instant” via iPhone or Android: high LOS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Avego integrate seats: bus, vanpool, private cars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>40 person software team w/ $12M committed VC </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Google “New mobility” “platform” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Maps w/ traffic, Transit, RideFinder, Android. </li></ul></ul></ul>Homes MCI, AOL
    6. 6. Helps: Reduce SOV Advantage <ul><li>Travel utility = f(travel time, travel cost, travel experience {hassle, stress, comfort, entertainment value}, parking hassle, parking cost, reliability) </li></ul><ul><li>When util(SOV) < util (HOV), then we have: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SF Bay Bridge Casual Carpooling (save 15 min & $5 bridge toll) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DC slugging (HOV-only!) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Microsoft Redmond casual evening rides back to Seattle </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Casual Carpooling and slugging: “perfect storm” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Very few other places where HOV is close to SOV </li></ul></ul><ul><li>IRS pilots have higher chance of success where there is reduced SOV advantage. IRS incentives increase HOV util. </li></ul>
    7. 7. Helps: Peak Oil – hurry up!!! <ul><li>Plenty of petrol (shale, tar sands) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gets expensive to extract </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China & India drive skyrocketing demand. </li></ul>
    8. 8. Avego Corridors <ul><li>Bus route-like. Driver does not deviate route </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-defined stops on arterials </li></ul><ul><li><1% is fine – “sliver of critical mass” </li></ul><ul><li>Driver: every day: run Avego, some days: give ride. LOS </li></ul><ul><li>Drive new route w/ iPhone, mark stops, edit stops via web </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ wiki”-like. User created routes/stops/content. </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. IRS Safety <ul><li>Reality: casual carpooling </li></ul><ul><li>Perception: Susan UCD focus group </li></ul><ul><li>Axe murderers? Sensationalized </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hitchhiking is anonymous, DRS is not </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Start: Rides w/i social/work network </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid 1 male, 1 female </li></ul><ul><li>Reputation rating </li></ul><ul><li>PIN code & photo to verify ride </li></ul><ul><li>Possible: background check </li></ul><ul><li>Possible: Big Sister (homesafe). </li></ul>
    10. 10. Last: Collaboration <ul><li>Really big world problems </li></ul><ul><li>Grow “more human” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2040 humans can’t understand 2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 enables collaboration with zero management cost </li></ul><ul><li>Unleash human goodness (make it easy) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many people, a few minutes per day </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Satisfaction: solve something that govt fails at </li></ul><ul><li>IRS & new mobility: social movements. </li></ul>
    11. 11. THE END: QUESTIONS
    12. 12. Technology <ul><li>Notifications </li></ul><ul><li>Prediction alg </li></ul><ul><li>Payment. </li></ul>
    13. 13. Complements Transit
    14. 14. Knowledge worker commute <ul><li>Large suburban solo driving reduction is hard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>80% SOV to 79% SOV is hard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But, SOV is “least worst,” not loved </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SOV: no-brainer background task </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Charging $6 per day for parking works ($9 gas) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pay $4 per day not to park - fails </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current carpooling: “fampools” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Value of time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Commute: 50% of hourly. Lunch: 200% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waiting under uncertainty, 3X </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each commuter: basket of objections. </li></ul>
    15. 15. Knowledge worker commute <ul><li>30% time penalty: OK (20 min SOV vs. 26 min alternative) </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional carpool psychology is complex: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Customer support: eliminate nightmares </li></ul><ul><li>Mid-day stranding: mtngs, lunch, shop </li></ul><ul><li>PM Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home </li></ul><ul><li>Good commute: “time went fast.” </li></ul>
    16. 16. How to grow pilot routes? <ul><li>Work with existing carpool flow vectors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Have fixed carpools also make dynamic pickups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Target demographic? </li></ul><ul><li>“Practice” by picking up “ghosts.” </li></ul>
    17. 17. GrassRoutes <ul><li>Get a couple of folks together (commuters) </li></ul><ul><li>Grow circle to 5 drivers and 5 riders on a route </li></ul><ul><li>Avego: help with phones & guaranteed ride home </li></ul><ul><li>10 people can change the world </li></ul><ul><li>Grow from 10 people, add routes. </li></ul>
    18. 18. Avego Shared Transport <ul><li>Mapflow (parent): 40 person company. Congestion charging in London. Maps (GIS). Tracking cars (GPS) </li></ul><ul><li>Avego division mission: reduce SOV </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(SOV: single occupancy vehicle) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Shared Transport: iPhone instant carpooling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v =PgTNK85bG_k </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integrates with vanpools, traditional carpools, buses. </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. Avego Status <ul><li>$12M in venture capital </li></ul><ul><li>iPhone software on Apple AppStore </li></ul><ul><li>Very difficult to succeed (hurry up Peak!) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long, multiyear campaign </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We don’t know what will work (try stuff!) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pilot project at a 20,000-student university </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Campus shuttle bus system is integrated </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Futurefleet “coach bus” pilot project. </li></ul>
    20. 20. Steve Raney bio <ul><li>Launch consultant for Avego </li></ul><ul><li>ULTra personal rapid transit (London Heathrow Airport) </li></ul><ul><li>3 masters: business, software, and transportation from Columbia, RPI, and Berkeley </li></ul><ul><li>Tech product research at Microsoft, Citigroup, and Silicon Valley start-ups  </li></ul><ul><li>Proj Mgr for BART’s Group Rapid Transit study </li></ul><ul><li>Principal Investigator for the U.S. EPA’s &quot;Transforming Office Parks into Transit Villages&quot; study  </li></ul><ul><li>Author: 5 Transportation Research Board (TRB) papers  </li></ul><ul><li>Patent: &quot;wireless carpool assistant&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Conference presentations: TRB, Association for Commuter Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems World Congress, Rail~Volution, Greenbuild Expo, Engineers for a Sustainable World, Housing California, and American Planning Association (California Chapter). </li></ul>

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