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  • Some graphs by the US Gov and Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas predicting peak oil on or before 2010. [if we use this slide, we should take some commentary from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

steve_raney@cities21.org Instant Carpooling steve_raney@cities21.org Instant Carpooling Presentation Transcript

  • Instant Carpooling
    • Steve Raney
      • ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09)
      • Cities21 new mobility non-profit
      • Patent: Wireless carpool assistant
    • Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS)
      • Match within 3 days
    • Instant Ridesharing (IRS)
      • within 15 minutes.
  • Empty seats: policy
    • 1000X more cost-effective
      • Duh! Reduce demand
    • IRS: Reduce 1 SOV  phone
      • Metro extension, 1 SOV  new Mercedes
    • Homeland economic security
      • SF Bay Bridge in ’89 quake, MN I-35W bridge collapse
      • Need rapid capacity response
    • Policy jumpstarts
      • Charge $8/day suburban parking  23% commute shift
      • Extend commute benefits & tax breaks to DRS commuting. Federal workers, especially
      • More HOV lanes.
  • “ Obvious” Idea
    • Shaheen: 1% SOV mode shift
    • 11 past, 8 current, 10 future
      • see www.dynamicridesharing.org
      • Zimride, GoLoco, nuride, Carticipate, Goose Networks, RideNow, ecolane, Seattle Smart Traveler, Google RideFinder, Hoverport, etc.
      • Invention prevalence
    • Not obvious
      • Carnegie Mellon West theme. 4 teams vote no
      • Goose. $111K WSDOT grant, 322 rides, $345/ride
      • RideNow. 12 out of 3K BART recruiting.
  • Still not obvious
    • Sparse GIS distribution
      • Carticipate: 10K members (need 1.5M)
      • Avego: 2,400 members
    • Members form permanent carpools & drop out.
  • What will work?
    • $10/gal, 10% commuters, 100% GPS (API) smartphones + in-vehicle navigation systems
    • Clever
      • Nuride corridor strategy (not an “area”)
      • ZimRide college portals
      • “ Instant” via iPhone or Android: high LOS
      • Avego integrate seats: bus, vanpool, private cars
        • 40 person software team w/ $12M committed VC
      • Google “New mobility” “platform”
        • Maps w/ traffic, Transit, RideFinder, Android.
    Homes MCI, AOL
  • Helps: Reduce SOV Advantage
    • Travel utility = f(travel time, travel cost, travel experience {hassle, stress, comfort, entertainment value}, parking hassle, parking cost, reliability)
    • When util(SOV) < util (HOV), then we have:
      • SF Bay Bridge Casual Carpooling (save 15 min & $5 bridge toll)
      • DC slugging (HOV-only!)
      • Microsoft Redmond casual evening rides back to Seattle
    • Casual Carpooling and slugging: “perfect storm”
      • Very few other places where HOV is close to SOV
    • IRS pilots have higher chance of success where there is reduced SOV advantage. IRS incentives increase HOV util.
  • Helps: Peak Oil – hurry up!!!
    • Plenty of petrol (shale, tar sands)
      • Gets expensive to extract
    • China & India drive skyrocketing demand.
  • Avego Corridors
    • Bus route-like. Driver does not deviate route
    • Pre-defined stops on arterials
    • <1% is fine – “sliver of critical mass”
    • Driver: every day: run Avego, some days: give ride. LOS
    • Drive new route w/ iPhone, mark stops, edit stops via web
      • “ wiki”-like. User created routes/stops/content.
  • IRS Safety
    • Reality: casual carpooling
    • Perception: Susan UCD focus group
    • Axe murderers? Sensationalized
      • Hitchhiking is anonymous, DRS is not
    • Start: Rides w/i social/work network
    • Avoid 1 male, 1 female
    • Reputation rating
    • PIN code & photo to verify ride
    • Possible: background check
    • Possible: Big Sister (homesafe).
  • Last: Collaboration
    • Really big world problems
    • Grow “more human”
      • 2040 humans can’t understand 2009
    • Web 2.0 enables collaboration with zero management cost
    • Unleash human goodness (make it easy)
      • Many people, a few minutes per day
    • Satisfaction: solve something that govt fails at
    • IRS & new mobility: social movements.
  • THE END: QUESTIONS
  • Technology
    • Notifications
    • Prediction alg
    • Payment.
  • Complements Transit
  • Knowledge worker commute
    • Large suburban solo driving reduction is hard
      • 80% SOV to 79% SOV is hard
      • But, SOV is “least worst,” not loved
      • SOV: no-brainer background task
      • Charging $6 per day for parking works ($9 gas)
      • Pay $4 per day not to park - fails
      • Current carpooling: “fampools”
    • Value of time
      • Commute: 50% of hourly. Lunch: 200%
      • Waiting under uncertainty, 3X
    • Each commuter: basket of objections.
  • Knowledge worker commute
    • 30% time penalty: OK (20 min SOV vs. 26 min alternative)
    • Traditional carpool psychology is complex:
      • Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)
      • Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
    • Customer support: eliminate nightmares
    • Mid-day stranding: mtngs, lunch, shop
    • PM Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home
    • Good commute: “time went fast.”
  • How to grow pilot routes?
    • Work with existing carpool flow vectors
      • Have fixed carpools also make dynamic pickups
    • Target demographic?
    • “Practice” by picking up “ghosts.”
  • GrassRoutes
    • Get a couple of folks together (commuters)
    • Grow circle to 5 drivers and 5 riders on a route
    • Avego: help with phones & guaranteed ride home
    • 10 people can change the world
    • Grow from 10 people, add routes.
  • Avego Shared Transport
    • Mapflow (parent): 40 person company. Congestion charging in London. Maps (GIS). Tracking cars (GPS)
    • Avego division mission: reduce SOV
      • (SOV: single occupancy vehicle)
    • Shared Transport: iPhone instant carpooling
      • http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v =PgTNK85bG_k
      • Integrates with vanpools, traditional carpools, buses.
  • Avego Status
    • $12M in venture capital
    • iPhone software on Apple AppStore
    • Very difficult to succeed (hurry up Peak!)
      • Long, multiyear campaign
      • We don’t know what will work (try stuff!)
    • Pilot project at a 20,000-student university
      • Campus shuttle bus system is integrated
    • Futurefleet “coach bus” pilot project.
  • Steve Raney bio
    • Launch consultant for Avego
    • ULTra personal rapid transit (London Heathrow Airport)
    • 3 masters: business, software, and transportation from Columbia, RPI, and Berkeley
    • Tech product research at Microsoft, Citigroup, and Silicon Valley start-ups 
    • Proj Mgr for BART’s Group Rapid Transit study
    • Principal Investigator for the U.S. EPA’s &quot;Transforming Office Parks into Transit Villages&quot; study 
    • Author: 5 Transportation Research Board (TRB) papers 
    • Patent: &quot;wireless carpool assistant&quot;
    • Conference presentations: TRB, Association for Commuter Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems World Congress, Rail~Volution, Greenbuild Expo, Engineers for a Sustainable World, Housing California, and American Planning Association (California Chapter).