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Slide 1 - Technology Association of Georgia | Tech News ...

  1. 1. The Importance of Trends in Business Planning TAG October 2, 2008
  2. 2. Somebody wasn’t paying attention <ul><li>“ Everything that can be invented has been invented ” </li></ul><ul><li>Charles Duell, Commissioner U.S. Patent Office-1899 </li></ul><ul><li>(Recommended that the US patent office be shut down) </li></ul>
  3. 3. Question <ul><li>“ Why don’t the railroads own the truck lines, bus lines and airlines?” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They are in the same business </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trends in disruptive technologies were evident </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer trends were evident </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Question <ul><li>Why has Atlanta based Cox Enterprises/Communications evolved in the following way? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Newspapers in the 1800s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Radio Stations in the 1920s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadcast Television Stations in the 1940s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cable TV Systems in the 1970s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cable Programming Services (Discovery) in the 1980s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet/Mobile Capabilities in the Present </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Each segment in the same business </li></ul><ul><li>The trends in disruptive technologies were evident </li></ul><ul><li>Changing consumers trends were evident </li></ul>
  5. 5. Answers <ul><li>Most businesses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Know what businesses/markets they are in and what market segments they are targeting. Some do not. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Winning Businesses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>On an ongoing basis have an understanding of where their core businesses/markets/segments are going </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Study and follow trends in spaces tangential to their core markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continually are paying attention (Unlike Mr. Duell) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Others </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Live in the present </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do not take the time to collect and assess trend data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Avoid/are in denial about what is coming around the corner </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>See only part of what is coming around the corner </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In which category is your business? </li></ul>
  6. 6. What is a trend? <ul><li>A trend is </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A pattern and general accumulation of data points and information that indicates a general progression or a direction that becomes the basis of an estimation and hypothesis of the future </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Where are your markets going? <ul><li>Understanding trends and opportunity related to trends particularly applies to start up companies. </li></ul><ul><li>Investors are attracted to where your market and your company is today but they make their bets on where your market and where your company will be tomorrow </li></ul>
  8. 8. Video
  9. 9. No Single Trend Drives The Future Of Your Business <ul><li>Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-system of trends that interact with one another </li></ul><ul><li>A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends create the future </li></ul><ul><li>Key trends that interact with one another </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Societal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology/Disruptive Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customers’ businesses/markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Suppliers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and Regulatory </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some say in today’s world you must think about the future of everything </li></ul><ul><li>Look for the super-connections of trends </li></ul>
  10. 10. The Record/CD Industry <ul><li>“ Why don’t the record/CD companies own MP3 technology?” </li></ul><ul><li>They didn’t follow a few technology trends occurring outside their industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Home Computer Ownership </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing usage of the internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing broadband connectivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generational change vis a vis technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Lawyers tripping over protecting copyrights) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The music industry has evolved from being a provider of physical products to a service industry </li></ul>
  11. 11. Demographic Trend: The Aging Population <ul><li>Largest consumer market segment of the future will be retired people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Several major influential counties are growing older quickly: USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, Russia, China (due to its scale) will soon see their respective baby boomers reach retirement age </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In the USA this will be the largest generation of retirees in history </li></ul><ul><li>These retirees will live longer than any other generation in history </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Certain forecasts say that in 2025 25% of the US population will be over 100 years of age </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Where do Technology Evolution and This Demographic Trend Intersect? <ul><ul><li>Significant opportunities exist for new products and services targeted at seniors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Home/Hotel design (stoves, microwaves, bathrooms) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Food products </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Automotive design </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Financial services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aids to Connectivity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aid to helping seniors with mobility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In-home/serve monitoring/sensors/services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Entertainment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Tourism </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Other? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are there opportunities here for your business? </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Ripple Impacts of the Trend <ul><li>Most active retired generation in history </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many retirees will seek part-time work, new careers and news ways to contribute to society </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Boomers will be pre-occupied with maintaining their health and demanding better services from healthcare (But they will be aging-arthritic bones, blurry eyes, mental accuity)……. </li></ul><ul><li>Eldercare will become a larger issue than childcare </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assisted living </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nursing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hospice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Family assisted </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key opportunities: keeping older people mobile, nourished, healthy, entertained and connected to society </li></ul>
  14. 14. A broader unintended consequence of the trend <ul><li>Employers will need to replace millions of skilled workers </li></ul><ul><li>A global talent war will emerge for skilled workers </li></ul><ul><li>In US, Japan, Europe, and Russia there will not be enough young people in the work force to fill these jobs and to support social programs for the elderly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population trends don’t support this (14MM worker deficit in the US in 2015) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased immigration into US will be required to keep up with demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hispanics and women will dominate the future US workforce </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2025 2 of 3 workers in America will be a woman </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Middle East and Africa will have very high percentage of people under 24 years of age (60%) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>There are few or no jobs waiting for them in their own countries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The US, Japan, Europe and Russia will be competing for these workers </li></ul><ul><li>These three trends will not subside for decades </li></ul><ul><li>What does this mean for your business (threat or opportunity)? </li></ul>
  15. 15. Further Ripple <ul><li>Further as boomer retirees age and pass away the largest transfer of wealth in history will occur </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$18 trillion in assets will transfer from Boomers and transfer to Generation X </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And generation Xers are worse at saving than any earlier generation……. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Where do the opportunities lay in this intersection? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will Generation Xers become the next wave of angel investors? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Great business in 2020-2030: mortician/crematorium </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Boomers will be dying by the millions </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) <ul><li>20 th Century: Century of America </li></ul><ul><li>21 st Century: Century of BRIC </li></ul><ul><li>In the future these four countries have the potential to dominate the world (they have and will have 40% of the population of the earth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Explosive demand for new products and services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inexpensive, quality production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dynamically growing consumer markets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China and India (Chindia) have 1/3 of the current world population and will dominate world GDP over at least the next 40 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(A high percentage of these populations is under 35) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Chindia graduates 500,000 engineering students per year (the USA graduates 60,000/year) </li></ul><ul><li>China has 5X more business schools and 10X more engineering schools than the US and Europe combined </li></ul><ul><li>Cars in total world 2007: 795MM </li></ul><ul><li>Cars in China 2030: 1.1BB </li></ul>
  17. 17. The Age of Anxiety and Uncertainty <ul><li>Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Natural disasters/Global Warming </li></ul><ul><li>War/Geo-political instability </li></ul><ul><li>The credit crisis (and its ripple effect) </li></ul><ul><li>Identity Theft (is growing exponentially </li></ul><ul><li>Mistrust of security on the internet </li></ul><ul><li>Many people are confused, stressed and searching for something to believe in. </li></ul><ul><li>Ironically, due the related uncertainty driven by the above, consumers need to escape and are increasingly turning to religion and spirituality and this has become a trend </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities exist related to security in its broadest definition </li></ul><ul><li>The trade-off of individual rights and security will become an increasing issue </li></ul>
  18. 18. Personal Control <ul><li>Remote Control </li></ul><ul><li>PVRs/TIVO </li></ul><ul><li>The internet </li></ul><ul><li>WiFi (mobility) </li></ul><ul><li>Self service revolution has begun </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Touch screens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kiosks (services/products) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ATMs, Retail, Airports, Healthcare </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend: addressing essential convenience with speed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What’s next? </li></ul>
  19. 19. The environment <ul><li>Air pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Destruction of rain forests </li></ul><ul><li>Global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Accumulation of chemical pollutants in soil and water </li></ul><ul><li>Diminishment of fresh water tables </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sources will not meet demand </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Species extinction </li></ul><ul><li>Over-fishing of oceans </li></ul><ul><li>The calamity has created opportunity </li></ul>
  20. 20. Dawn of Conscious Capitalism and the Values-Driven Consumer <ul><li>Trends of “Organic” and “Environment Friendly” </li></ul><ul><li>Trend of “Clean and Green”/”Sustainable-Renewable’ </li></ul><ul><li>Energy sources (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Hybrid/Electric vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Foods </li></ul><ul><li>Green Buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Organic Products </li></ul><ul><li>Zero-energy homes </li></ul><ul><li>Eco-tourism </li></ul><ul><li>Energy friendly appliances </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative medicines </li></ul><ul><li>Socially responsible/”Green” investing </li></ul><ul><li>(E-Bay: “World of Good” products with social/environmental impact </li></ul>
  21. 21. The internet <ul><li>The killer-app for the internet is people </li></ul><ul><li>Enabling access to other people </li></ul><ul><li>Numerous business models exist </li></ul><ul><li>Few are successful…. </li></ul><ul><li>But web 2.0 is the future of advertising </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Highly targeted relationship marketing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leveraging the extraordinary flexibility of digital technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SEO is key </li></ul></ul><ul><li>By 2020 the internet will be wireless and pervasive, with access anytime, anywhere and it will be free to everyone </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020 the telephone and TV will be fully integrated into the internet </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020 three billion people will be using the internet for purposes of commerce </li></ul><ul><li>The business model of charging for internet access is temporary </li></ul>
  22. 22. IT-1 <ul><li>Moore’s law will continue for at least the next 10 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Transistor density will double every 18 months while price remains at parity) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Power of home computers will dramatically grow </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities exist related to small, inexpensive, low power, low maintenance, disposable computers </li></ul><ul><li>Future computers will have become wearable devices </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 will be increasingly applied on the commercial side </li></ul>
  23. 23. IT-2 <ul><li>Ever-increasing linkage of international/global supply chains linking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distributors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sellers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Capture orders at one end of the world, fulfill orders on the other, and find production somewhere else…….on demand </li></ul><ul><li>They will be automated and internet enabled </li></ul><ul><li>New processes and technology will emerge that will enable the global, fast, inexpensive and on-demand production and distribution of goods </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative virtual workspaces will emerge </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020 every manufactured product will be on the internet </li></ul>
  24. 24. Nanotechnology <ul><li>The most profound and exciting new technology wave </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nano-based products could change everything </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nanometer is a measurement of one-billionth of a meter </li></ul><ul><li>The manipulation of matter at the atomic scale, producing new drugs, fuels, materials, and machines </li></ul><ul><li>Design of materials from the molecular level to be exactly what we want </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The manipulation of matter on all levels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increasing applications driven by nanotechnology will touch beyond its implication for science </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fabrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precious Minerals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Robots </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Robotics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Billions being spent on R&D </li></ul>
  25. 25. Biotech/Neurotech <ul><li>The unlocking of DNA, life sciences, and the impact of genomics on health care, life extension, and medicine. </li></ul><ul><li>Specialized DNA </li></ul><ul><li>Genomics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gene restoration therapy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Genomic disease prevention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create safer foods and drugs/customized to the person’s genetics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bio-engineered organs </li></ul><ul><li>Longevity medicines </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Optimized immuno defenses/Anti aging drugs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stem cell technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organ engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stem-cell therapy for bio-restoration of memory and personality </li></ul><ul><li>Nano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and restore capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>New forms of implants (microelectronic medical implements) </li></ul><ul><li>Medical Devices </li></ul><ul><li>Intersects with demographic trends </li></ul><ul><li>The beginning of the android era </li></ul>
  26. 26. Healthcare <ul><li>Healthcare costs are expected to rise 8% per year into the future, and is expected to double </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020 the USA will be short 200,000 doctor and 800,000 nurses </li></ul><ul><li>On a continuing basis the US will compete with Europe and Asia for medical talent </li></ul><ul><li>Healthy lifestyles must be part of the future </li></ul><ul><li>Where are the business opportunities? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self diagnosis? </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Energy <ul><li>Energy issues will become increasingly central to consumers, governments, and businesses as we begin to deplete existing energy sources and place increased demand on existing energy infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>BRIC countries and the Middle East will put enormous pressure on global energy supplies and pricing </li></ul><ul><li>Enormous tension between Russia and the West will emerge over energy issues </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainable/Renewable energy sources will emerge but fuels will not totally replace emerge fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Biodeisel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many opportunities will emerge </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hydrogen is the fuel that will drove the middle and latter parts of the 21 st Century </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most plentiful gas in the universe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest energy content per unit weight of any known fuel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is everywhere </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Media/Communications/Entertainment-1 <ul><li>Technology will continue to transform media and entertainment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moore’s law of devices: every year the devices that create, communicate and play digital media get smaller </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>And they will further enhance mobility/portability (3G) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadband connectivity will evolve to where high quality digital video will be sent in real time or faster than real time to consumer devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Media is/are converging into one continuous interactive digital stream of information and entertainment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Memory density will continue to increase such that consumers will have millions of audio and video products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital camera/editing/switching technology will continue to evolve at consumer prices and will lead to a herefore unseen explosion in creative amateur videos (user-generated video) that will be distributed via broadband </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology that enhances the consumer entertainment experience in autos, airplanes and boats will emerge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is a trend toward virtual reality (escapist trend that is driving people to increased church attendance) (2 nd life) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technologies will emerge to address this </li></ul></ul></ul>
  29. 29. Media/Communications/Entertainment-2 <ul><li>Media is increasingly becoming personal and participatory </li></ul><ul><li>The blogosphere is 60X larger than it was three years ago and is doubling in size every six months </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend toward social/sharing sites will continue to grow (need is to find successful business models) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>You Tube, MySpace, Facebook, Flickr, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New web communities are and will be emerging daily </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New ways will emerge that will connect people, information, and financial transactions in real time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By 2020 all e-mail will be multimedia, audio and video streaming enabled </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gaming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integral part of young people’s lives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open source for gaming will emerge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-point gaming will surge (extension of community) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gambling on the web is a trend </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional television will increasingly need to compete for viewership with web sites offering video </li></ul><ul><li>Media brands will blur (what is a network?/what is station?)(they have lost relevance) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>People watch shows/programs, not channels or networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ex-Real time info networks (CNN, FNN, MSNBC, CNBC, TWC (web scalability) </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Factors that will define the Future <ul><li>Speed and an increasing rate of change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Same day delivery of everything ( news, emails/instant messaging, banking, entertainment, self service touch screens, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Slow is dangerous </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Everything will be more complex </li></ul><ul><li>Surprise will be daily feature of life (the uncertainty trend) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.G. the mercurial economy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Everything is/will be in a state of flux </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E.G the mercurial economy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Small companies can react more quickly than big companies to changing trends, especially fast moving trends </li></ul>
  31. 31. Get Started/Get Smarter Sources of Trend Data <ul><li>Important to obtain credible data/info from accurate sources </li></ul><ul><li>The web. Type in “Trends in X”/”Future Trends of X” </li></ul><ul><li>Magazines about your space and related areas </li></ul><ul><li>Peer-reviewed industry journals (E.G AMA) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Avoid biased reports from activist organizations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Official reports </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Universities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government Agencies (National Science Foundation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NGOs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>White Papers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry analyst reports </li></ul><ul><li>Industry forecasts…”By X date X will take place” </li></ul><ul><li>Industry “thought-leaders” </li></ul><ul><li>Industry-specific seminars/conferences </li></ul><ul><li>Books about trends and the future </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware/keep your ears and eyes open </li></ul><ul><li>Track it/catalog it </li></ul>
  32. 32. Tips <ul><li>Start with analysis of your own industry </li></ul><ul><li>Study adjacent industries/industries related to your space </li></ul><ul><li>Go back 5 years and forward 5-20 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess if the trends are going up or down </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is your business targeting a future up market or a future down market? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assess at what stage in the trends you/competitors are operating-today </li></ul><ul><li>Accept the trend data with emotional detachment </li></ul><ul><li>Pay Attention to current and future competition </li></ul><ul><li>Plan scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Make time to think and to talk about it </li></ul><ul><ul><li>May be the best time you’ll spend: understanding the current and future status of your markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>-study one trend each month/have the team work together/lunch/cocktails </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trend spotting should be part of your business strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Investors are interested in where your business is going/markets are going </li></ul>
  33. 33. No Single Trend Drives the Future of Your Business <ul><li>Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-system of trends that interact with one another </li></ul><ul><li>A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends, create the future </li></ul><ul><li>Key Trends that interact with one another: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Societal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology/Disruptive Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customers’ businesses markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Suppliers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Governement/Regulatory </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Look for the super-connections of trends </li></ul>
  34. 34. Bibliography <ul><li>The Extreme Future -James Canton-Dutton </li></ul><ul><li>Future Inc -Eric Garland-Amacom </li></ul><ul><li>Next/Now -Salzman and Matathia-Palgrave </li></ul><ul><li>Megatrends 2010 –Patricia Aburdene-Hampton Roads </li></ul><ul><li>Micro Trends -Mark Penn-Twelve (Hachette ) </li></ul>