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  • 1. The Importance of Trends in Business Planning TAG October 2, 2008
  • 2. Somebody wasn’t paying attention
    • “ Everything that can be invented has been invented ”
    • Charles Duell, Commissioner U.S. Patent Office-1899
    • (Recommended that the US patent office be shut down)
  • 3. Question
    • “ Why don’t the railroads own the truck lines, bus lines and airlines?”
      • They are in the same business
      • Trends in disruptive technologies were evident
      • Consumer trends were evident
  • 4. Question
    • Why has Atlanta based Cox Enterprises/Communications evolved in the following way?
      • Newspapers in the 1800s
      • Radio Stations in the 1920s
      • Broadcast Television Stations in the 1940s
      • Cable TV Systems in the 1970s
      • Cable Programming Services (Discovery) in the 1980s
      • Internet/Mobile Capabilities in the Present
    • Each segment in the same business
    • The trends in disruptive technologies were evident
    • Changing consumers trends were evident
  • 5. Answers
    • Most businesses
      • Know what businesses/markets they are in and what market segments they are targeting. Some do not.
    • Winning Businesses
      • On an ongoing basis have an understanding of where their core businesses/markets/segments are going
      • Study and follow trends in spaces tangential to their core markets
      • Continually are paying attention (Unlike Mr. Duell)
    • Others
      • Live in the present
      • Do not take the time to collect and assess trend data
      • Avoid/are in denial about what is coming around the corner
      • See only part of what is coming around the corner
    • In which category is your business?
  • 6. What is a trend?
    • A trend is
      • A pattern and general accumulation of data points and information that indicates a general progression or a direction that becomes the basis of an estimation and hypothesis of the future
  • 7. Where are your markets going?
    • Understanding trends and opportunity related to trends particularly applies to start up companies.
    • Investors are attracted to where your market and your company is today but they make their bets on where your market and where your company will be tomorrow
  • 8. Video
  • 9. No Single Trend Drives The Future Of Your Business
    • Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-system of trends that interact with one another
    • A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends create the future
    • Key trends that interact with one another
      • Societal
      • Technology/Disruptive Technology
      • Customers’ businesses/markets
      • Suppliers
      • Economic
      • Political
      • The environment
      • Government and Regulatory
    • Some say in today’s world you must think about the future of everything
    • Look for the super-connections of trends
  • 10. The Record/CD Industry
    • “ Why don’t the record/CD companies own MP3 technology?”
    • They didn’t follow a few technology trends occurring outside their industry
      • Home Computer Ownership
      • Increasing usage of the internet
      • Increasing broadband connectivity
      • Generational change vis a vis technology
      • (Lawyers tripping over protecting copyrights)
    • The music industry has evolved from being a provider of physical products to a service industry
  • 11. Demographic Trend: The Aging Population
    • Largest consumer market segment of the future will be retired people
      • Several major influential counties are growing older quickly: USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, Russia, China (due to its scale) will soon see their respective baby boomers reach retirement age
    • In the USA this will be the largest generation of retirees in history
    • These retirees will live longer than any other generation in history
      • Certain forecasts say that in 2025 25% of the US population will be over 100 years of age
  • 12. Where do Technology Evolution and This Demographic Trend Intersect?
      • Significant opportunities exist for new products and services targeted at seniors
        • Home/Hotel design (stoves, microwaves, bathrooms)
        • Food products
        • Automotive design
        • Financial services
        • Aids to Connectivity
        • Aid to helping seniors with mobility
        • In-home/serve monitoring/sensors/services
        • Entertainment
        • Tourism
        • Other?
      • Are there opportunities here for your business?
  • 13. Ripple Impacts of the Trend
    • Most active retired generation in history
      • Many retirees will seek part-time work, new careers and news ways to contribute to society
    • Boomers will be pre-occupied with maintaining their health and demanding better services from healthcare (But they will be aging-arthritic bones, blurry eyes, mental accuity)…….
    • Eldercare will become a larger issue than childcare
      • Assisted living
      • Nursing
      • Hospice
      • Family assisted
    • Key opportunities: keeping older people mobile, nourished, healthy, entertained and connected to society
  • 14. A broader unintended consequence of the trend
    • Employers will need to replace millions of skilled workers
    • A global talent war will emerge for skilled workers
    • In US, Japan, Europe, and Russia there will not be enough young people in the work force to fill these jobs and to support social programs for the elderly
      • Population trends don’t support this (14MM worker deficit in the US in 2015)
      • Increased immigration into US will be required to keep up with demand
      • Hispanics and women will dominate the future US workforce
      • In 2025 2 of 3 workers in America will be a woman
    • The Middle East and Africa will have very high percentage of people under 24 years of age (60%)
      • There are few or no jobs waiting for them in their own countries
    • The US, Japan, Europe and Russia will be competing for these workers
    • These three trends will not subside for decades
    • What does this mean for your business (threat or opportunity)?
  • 15. Further Ripple
    • Further as boomer retirees age and pass away the largest transfer of wealth in history will occur
      • $18 trillion in assets will transfer from Boomers and transfer to Generation X
      • And generation Xers are worse at saving than any earlier generation…….
    • Where do the opportunities lay in this intersection?
      • Will Generation Xers become the next wave of angel investors?
    • Great business in 2020-2030: mortician/crematorium
      • Boomers will be dying by the millions
  • 16. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
    • 20 th Century: Century of America
    • 21 st Century: Century of BRIC
    • In the future these four countries have the potential to dominate the world (they have and will have 40% of the population of the earth
      • Explosive demand for new products and services
      • Inexpensive, quality production
      • Dynamically growing consumer markets
    • China and India (Chindia) have 1/3 of the current world population and will dominate world GDP over at least the next 40 years
      • (A high percentage of these populations is under 35)
    • India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2030
    • Chindia graduates 500,000 engineering students per year (the USA graduates 60,000/year)
    • China has 5X more business schools and 10X more engineering schools than the US and Europe combined
    • Cars in total world 2007: 795MM
    • Cars in China 2030: 1.1BB
  • 17. The Age of Anxiety and Uncertainty
    • Terrorism
    • Natural disasters/Global Warming
    • War/Geo-political instability
    • The credit crisis (and its ripple effect)
    • Identity Theft (is growing exponentially
    • Mistrust of security on the internet
    • Many people are confused, stressed and searching for something to believe in.
    • Ironically, due the related uncertainty driven by the above, consumers need to escape and are increasingly turning to religion and spirituality and this has become a trend
    • Opportunities exist related to security in its broadest definition
    • The trade-off of individual rights and security will become an increasing issue
  • 18. Personal Control
    • Remote Control
    • PVRs/TIVO
    • The internet
    • WiFi (mobility)
    • Self service revolution has begun
      • Touch screens
      • Kiosks (services/products)
        • ATMs, Retail, Airports, Healthcare
      • Trend: addressing essential convenience with speed
    • What’s next?
  • 19. The environment
    • Air pollution
    • Destruction of rain forests
    • Global warming
    • Accumulation of chemical pollutants in soil and water
    • Diminishment of fresh water tables
      • Sources will not meet demand
    • Species extinction
    • Over-fishing of oceans
    • The calamity has created opportunity
  • 20. Dawn of Conscious Capitalism and the Values-Driven Consumer
    • Trends of “Organic” and “Environment Friendly”
    • Trend of “Clean and Green”/”Sustainable-Renewable’
    • Energy sources (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, etc)
    • Hybrid/Electric vehicles
    • Natural Foods
    • Green Buildings
    • Organic Products
    • Zero-energy homes
    • Eco-tourism
    • Energy friendly appliances
    • Alternative medicines
    • Socially responsible/”Green” investing
    • (E-Bay: “World of Good” products with social/environmental impact
  • 21. The internet
    • The killer-app for the internet is people
    • Enabling access to other people
    • Numerous business models exist
    • Few are successful….
    • But web 2.0 is the future of advertising
      • Highly targeted relationship marketing
      • Leveraging the extraordinary flexibility of digital technology
      • SEO is key
    • By 2020 the internet will be wireless and pervasive, with access anytime, anywhere and it will be free to everyone
    • By 2020 the telephone and TV will be fully integrated into the internet
    • By 2020 three billion people will be using the internet for purposes of commerce
    • The business model of charging for internet access is temporary
  • 22. IT-1
    • Moore’s law will continue for at least the next 10 years
      • (Transistor density will double every 18 months while price remains at parity)
    • Power of home computers will dramatically grow
    • Opportunities exist related to small, inexpensive, low power, low maintenance, disposable computers
    • Future computers will have become wearable devices
    • Web 2.0 will be increasingly applied on the commercial side
  • 23. IT-2
    • Ever-increasing linkage of international/global supply chains linking
      • Creators
      • Manufacturers
      • Distributors
      • Sellers
    • Capture orders at one end of the world, fulfill orders on the other, and find production somewhere else…….on demand
    • They will be automated and internet enabled
    • New processes and technology will emerge that will enable the global, fast, inexpensive and on-demand production and distribution of goods
    • Collaborative virtual workspaces will emerge
    • By 2020 every manufactured product will be on the internet
  • 24. Nanotechnology
    • The most profound and exciting new technology wave
      • Nano-based products could change everything
    • Nanometer is a measurement of one-billionth of a meter
    • The manipulation of matter at the atomic scale, producing new drugs, fuels, materials, and machines
    • Design of materials from the molecular level to be exactly what we want
      • The manipulation of matter on all levels
    • Increasing applications driven by nanotechnology will touch beyond its implication for science
      • Fabrics
      • Precious Minerals
      • Robots
      • Energy
      • Manufacturing
      • Military
      • Robotics
    • Billions being spent on R&D
  • 25. Biotech/Neurotech
    • The unlocking of DNA, life sciences, and the impact of genomics on health care, life extension, and medicine.
    • Specialized DNA
    • Genomics
      • Gene restoration therapy
      • Genomic disease prevention
      • Create safer foods and drugs/customized to the person’s genetics
    • Bio-engineered organs
    • Longevity medicines
      • Optimized immuno defenses/Anti aging drugs
      • Stem cell technology
      • Organ engineering
    • Stem-cell therapy for bio-restoration of memory and personality
    • Nano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and restore capabilities
    • New forms of implants (microelectronic medical implements)
    • Medical Devices
    • Intersects with demographic trends
    • The beginning of the android era
  • 26. Healthcare
    • Healthcare costs are expected to rise 8% per year into the future, and is expected to double
    • By 2020 the USA will be short 200,000 doctor and 800,000 nurses
    • On a continuing basis the US will compete with Europe and Asia for medical talent
    • Healthy lifestyles must be part of the future
    • Where are the business opportunities?
      • Self diagnosis?
  • 27. Energy
    • Energy issues will become increasingly central to consumers, governments, and businesses as we begin to deplete existing energy sources and place increased demand on existing energy infrastructures
    • BRIC countries and the Middle East will put enormous pressure on global energy supplies and pricing
    • Enormous tension between Russia and the West will emerge over energy issues
    • Sustainable/Renewable energy sources will emerge but fuels will not totally replace emerge fossil fuels
      • Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Biodeisel
      • Many opportunities will emerge
    • Hydrogen is the fuel that will drove the middle and latter parts of the 21 st Century
      • Most plentiful gas in the universe
      • Highest energy content per unit weight of any known fuel
      • It is everywhere
  • 28. Media/Communications/Entertainment-1
    • Technology will continue to transform media and entertainment
      • Moore’s law of devices: every year the devices that create, communicate and play digital media get smaller
        • And they will further enhance mobility/portability (3G)
      • Broadband connectivity will evolve to where high quality digital video will be sent in real time or faster than real time to consumer devices
      • Media is/are converging into one continuous interactive digital stream of information and entertainment
      • Memory density will continue to increase such that consumers will have millions of audio and video products
      • Digital camera/editing/switching technology will continue to evolve at consumer prices and will lead to a herefore unseen explosion in creative amateur videos (user-generated video) that will be distributed via broadband
      • Technology that enhances the consumer entertainment experience in autos, airplanes and boats will emerge
      • There is a trend toward virtual reality (escapist trend that is driving people to increased church attendance) (2 nd life)
        • Technologies will emerge to address this
  • 29. Media/Communications/Entertainment-2
    • Media is increasingly becoming personal and participatory
    • The blogosphere is 60X larger than it was three years ago and is doubling in size every six months
      • Trend toward social/sharing sites will continue to grow (need is to find successful business models)
        • You Tube, MySpace, Facebook, Flickr, etc.
      • New web communities are and will be emerging daily
      • New ways will emerge that will connect people, information, and financial transactions in real time
      • By 2020 all e-mail will be multimedia, audio and video streaming enabled
    • Gaming
      • Integral part of young people’s lives
      • Open source for gaming will emerge
      • Multi-point gaming will surge (extension of community)
    • Gambling on the web is a trend
    • Traditional television will increasingly need to compete for viewership with web sites offering video
    • Media brands will blur (what is a network?/what is station?)(they have lost relevance)
      • People watch shows/programs, not channels or networks
      • Ex-Real time info networks (CNN, FNN, MSNBC, CNBC, TWC (web scalability)
  • 30. Factors that will define the Future
    • Speed and an increasing rate of change
      • Same day delivery of everything ( news, emails/instant messaging, banking, entertainment, self service touch screens, etc)
      • Slow is dangerous
    • Everything will be more complex
    • Surprise will be daily feature of life (the uncertainty trend)
      • E.G. the mercurial economy
    • Everything is/will be in a state of flux
      • E.G the mercurial economy
    • Small companies can react more quickly than big companies to changing trends, especially fast moving trends
  • 31. Get Started/Get Smarter Sources of Trend Data
    • Important to obtain credible data/info from accurate sources
    • The web. Type in “Trends in X”/”Future Trends of X”
    • Magazines about your space and related areas
    • Peer-reviewed industry journals (E.G AMA)
      • Avoid biased reports from activist organizations
    • Official reports
      • Universities
      • Government Agencies (National Science Foundation)
      • NGOs
      • White Papers
    • Industry analyst reports
    • Industry forecasts…”By X date X will take place”
    • Industry “thought-leaders”
    • Industry-specific seminars/conferences
    • Books about trends and the future
    • Be aware/keep your ears and eyes open
    • Track it/catalog it
  • 32. Tips
    • Start with analysis of your own industry
    • Study adjacent industries/industries related to your space
    • Go back 5 years and forward 5-20 years
      • Assess if the trends are going up or down
      • Is your business targeting a future up market or a future down market?
    • Assess at what stage in the trends you/competitors are operating-today
    • Accept the trend data with emotional detachment
    • Pay Attention to current and future competition
    • Plan scenarios
    • Make time to think and to talk about it
      • May be the best time you’ll spend: understanding the current and future status of your markets
      • -study one trend each month/have the team work together/lunch/cocktails
    • Trend spotting should be part of your business strategy
    • Investors are interested in where your business is going/markets are going
  • 33. No Single Trend Drives the Future of Your Business
    • Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-system of trends that interact with one another
    • A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends, create the future
    • Key Trends that interact with one another:
      • Societal
      • Technology/Disruptive Technology
      • Customers’ businesses markets
      • Suppliers
      • Economic
      • Political
      • The Environment
      • Governement/Regulatory
    • Look for the super-connections of trends
  • 34. Bibliography
    • The Extreme Future -James Canton-Dutton
    • Future Inc -Eric Garland-Amacom
    • Next/Now -Salzman and Matathia-Palgrave
    • Megatrends 2010 –Patricia Aburdene-Hampton Roads
    • Micro Trends -Mark Penn-Twelve (Hachette )