Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models

558

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
558
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
52
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Mobile Broadband – New Applications and New Business Models Brough Turner
  • 2. IMT-2000 Vision (for 3G) included LAN, WAN and Satellite Services Satellite Macrocell Microcell Urban In-Building Picocell Global Suburban Basic Terminal PDA Terminal Audio/Visual Terminal
  • 3. The Internet is the killer platform <ul><li>Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage </li></ul><ul><li>Future business models an open question </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Walled garden ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advertising ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other 2-sided business models ? </li></ul></ul>
  • 4. Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G <ul><li>Voice ― still the largest revenue source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar none! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SMS ― 2 nd largest mobile revenue source </li></ul><ul><li>Voice SMS, picture mail & video mail coming on strong </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Content ! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile TV </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile social networking </li></ul>
  • 5. Mobile Content <ul><li>More music sold on-line than off-line in both China and Korea </li></ul><ul><li>Ringback tones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002; 30% adoption in just 9 months </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ringback tones today </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Korea: ~55% adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China: ~50% adoption </li></ul></ul>Any G, 1, 2, 3 or Fixed
  • 6. Japanese Music Revenues Source: Infinity Venture Partners
  • 7. Mobile TV 70% of new handsets in Japan are Mobile TV enabled Only Japan and Korea have multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases Broadcast services independent of 3G
  • 8. Mobile Social Networking Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd. 50 M 6 M 10 M 3 M Mobile users: 2000 2004 2006 2007 Mobile launch: Profit (USD): $225M ~$100M ~$35M ($50M) 2.5G
  • 9. “3G” Services <ul><li>3G-324M Video telephony </li></ul><ul><li>Location-based services </li></ul><ul><li>Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Rich presence (instant messaging) </li></ul><ul><li>Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) </li></ul><ul><li>IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Video sharing (conversational video on IP) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision </li></ul>Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Bypassed ! No traction Still waiting …
  • 10. Mobile operators miss the boat <ul><li>Location-based services (LBS) </li></ul><ul><li>Required in US for 911 services </li></ul><ul><li>Fully implemented (after multiple delays) </li></ul><ul><li>Not made attractive for 3rd parties </li></ul><ul><li>Result: </li></ul><ul><li>All US location-based services based on alternate location approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook </li></ul></ul>
  • 11. Mobile operators slow the boat <ul><li>Billing Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile operators have efficient billing systems & own the customer relationship </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous potential of affordable billing services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Result: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3rd party content is paid for via 3rd party billing systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s) </li></ul></ul>
  • 12. Mobile Broadband Access US prospects for “over the top” access to the open Internet
  • 13. iPhone traffic per month
  • 14. iPhone  glimmer of what’s possible <ul><li>Controlled eco-system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applications approved by Apple </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Must meet unpublished standards under contract between Apple & AT&T </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g., can’t run VoIP over 3G, only over Wi-Fi </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But, $30/ month flat rate data plan (on top of $40+ phone plan) </li></ul><ul><li>Explosive growth in web usage </li></ul>
  • 15. Mobile Internet Access <ul><li>Available for PC’s with restrictions, e.g. no servers, no P2P, no substitution for private lines or frame relay </li></ul><ul><li>AT&T: 5GB @ $60/mo </li></ul><ul><li>Verizon: ditto </li></ul><ul><li>Sprint: ditto </li></ul><ul><li>No US operator offers flat rate unlimited plans </li></ul>
  • 16. Breaking Oligopolies <ul><li>Four or more viable competitors is what it takes; more than four and it can be rapid </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many examples in mobile voice telephony from around the world </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2009: Three established US 3G operators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flat rate data plans exist; but with caps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No unlimited open Internet access </li></ul></ul>
  • 17. Additional US 3G/4G Competition <ul><li>USA (well financed) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently spending almost $1B per quarter, 3G had reached 1/3rd of cell sites as of 3Q08 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(build out partially financed) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum </li></ul></ul>Potential for affordable flat rate mobile broadband in the US in 2010
  • 18. Subscribers & Applications <ul><li>Historically, only applications pre-installed on handsets had any traction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ On-deck” applications and content offers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Apple iPhone application store is on-deck </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides access to 50K+ applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Andriod store, RIM, Nokia, Qualcomm, Palm, Handango, Adobe, Samsung, … </li></ul>Application stores are the new “deck”
  • 19. Handset diversity <ul><li>Remaining obstacle to widespread deployment of 3 rd party applications </li></ul>
  • 20. IMS doesn’t solve inter-operability
  • 21. Handsets more & more diverse <ul><li>Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, … </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Runtime environments as several levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operating systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hardware capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, … </li></ul></ul>
  • 22. Mobile Software Frameworks Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research
  • 23. Internet will win in the end, but… Mobile Facebook by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/philiphubs/
  • 24. Important trends <ul><li>App stores! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Easier distribution; Easier discovery </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More and more smart phones </li></ul><ul><li>Richer browser capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approaching PC browser functionality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New access to device capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>User data (contacts, logs, …), events (incoming calls) and core functionality </li></ul></ul>
  • 25. Uniquely Mobile Internet <ul><li>Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP </li></ul><ul><li>Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Optimize the mobile user experience; speed ups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phase 4 – client-side mashups </li></ul><ul><ul><li>telephony, address book, location, camera… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phase 5 – apparent persistence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; … </li></ul></ul>
  • 26.  
  • 27. Challenges <ul><li>Handset diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Pace of change </li></ul><ul><li>User interface – minimum clicks; max speed </li></ul><ul><li>Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power </li></ul><ul><li>Application concurrency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manage events over browser, native & helper apps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Persistent user experience across multiple applications </li></ul>
  • 28. Dealing with handset diversity <ul><li>Browser-based application first </li></ul><ul><li>Optimize for top N phones by market share </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For most applications, N likely equals 1-3 , not 10-12 </li></ul></ul>Source: StatCounter SmartPhone market share
  • 29. Smart Phones & Feature Phones <ul><li>Smart Phone adoption soaring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nokia, Blackberry, iPhone, RIM, WinMobile, Palm, Android, … </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Moore’s law suggests it will only get better </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But </li></ul><ul><li>85% of US phones are “feature phones” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher percentage in emerging markets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Application environments emerge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Java, Flash, Qt and ever richer web runtimes </li></ul></ul>
  • 30. Expectations are clear Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Today Browser Mobile Web Mobile Web 2.0 Browser Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Tomorrow
  • 31. The initiative has passed to application developers Biggest Take-Away
  • 32. Dumb Pipes or New Service Opportunities? How operators can profit while providing open mobile access to the Internet
  • 33. Advertising won’t cover lost voice $ Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd.
  • 34. Two-Sided Markets <ul><li>eBay connects sellers and buyers </li></ul><ul><li>Nightclubs: women get in free </li></ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Newspapers – low prices for subscribers facilitates sales of advertising </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers facilitating sales of advertising </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Akamai caching benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers </li></ul></ul>
  • 35. 800 numbers <ul><li>The original telco 2-sided play </li></ul><ul><li>Bell system provided retail phone service to essentially all US consumers </li></ul><ul><li>Offered “800 service” to businesses, helping them connect with their customers and prospects </li></ul>
  • 36. Billing Service <ul><li>Most operators cautious about partnering </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of “dumb pipe”  slow roll out of new services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But i-mode business model was wide open </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free development software kits; No access restrictions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>i-mode big success in first 24 months </li></ul><ul><ul><li>55,000 applications, 30M subscribers ! </li></ul></ul>
  • 37. DoCoMo i-Mode: 2-sided business model <ul><li>Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles) </li></ul><ul><li>Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services </li></ul>
  • 38. DoCoMo’s i-mode <ul><li>Open to any application developer </li></ul><ul><li>Optional billing for a 9% commission </li></ul><ul><li>Results: </li></ul><ul><li>Over 100K new applications in first 3 years </li></ul><ul><li>Over 15K applications use billing service </li></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo has highest data revenue per user, in the world, consistently for 10+ years </li></ul>
  • 39. Operator Assets <ul><li>Brand, PSTN numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Location (motion, context, …) </li></ul><ul><li>Fine-grained billing systems </li></ul><ul><li>User data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Name, address, age, devices, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rich presence </li></ul><ul><li>Customer relationships </li></ul>
  • 40. Telco Platform Customers: Revenue Side 2 Customers: Revenue Side 1 Developers Retailers Government Brand Advertisers Content Owners Telco – Retail B2B VAS Distribution Source: Simon Torrance © 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative Millions of Customers Thousands of Segments $ $
  • 41. Opportunities on all fronts Rich mobile applications are coming but, business models will change, significantly
  • 42. Brough Turner Ashtonbrooke Corporation http:// www.ashtonbrooke.com Blog: http:// blogs.broughturner.com Email: [email_address] Skype: brough Thank you !

×