Frederic Pujol.ppt


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Frederic Pujol.ppt

  1. 1. DIGIWORLD SUMMIT Mobile Service Forum Redefining mobile business models IDATE Contact Frédéric PUJOL +33 (0)4 67 14 44 46 [email_address]
  2. 2. Redefining mobile business models
  3. 3. 3.5G deployment <ul><li>Faster speeds and enhanced capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3G+, Turbo3G… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Up to 7.2 Mbps (downlink) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>… cheaper rates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unlimited data packages </li></ul></ul> The real mobile broadband? Source: GSA October 2007 Source: IDATE
  4. 4. Mobile terminals & OS Evolutions threatening mobile operators’ revenues iPhone (not yet 3G) ? Nokia’s initiative ► Nokia & Navteq  map/navigation services ► OVI P/F: Music, games, maps… <ul><li>Operating System </li></ul><ul><ul><li>► Google & Android (gPhone's open software platform) Based on Linux </li></ul></ul><ul><li>► Open Handset Alliance </li></ul><ul><li>► Handset expected in 2S2008 (HTC…) </li></ul>Apple 30% mobile bill revenue  Apple <ul><li>Skypephone </li></ul><ul><ul><li>► Free calls & IM between Skype users + Skype-compatible phones </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Mobile trends <ul><li>Western Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSDPA deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decreasing ARPU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MNO revenues and EBITDA margins under pressure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data services growing slowly; voice & SMS still represent the lion’s share of revenues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory pressure: termination rates, international roaming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FMC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Femtocells </li></ul></ul>Apple, Google? Nokia Telefónica Mobile advertising Mobile search World Telecom Services market Source: IDATE Up Down MVNOs CDMA 2000 Mobile WiMAX Mobile TV ? <ul><li>Western Europe </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HSDPA deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decreasing ARPU </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MNO revenues and EBITDA margins under pressure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data services growing slowly; voice & SMS still represent the lion’s share of revenues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory pressure: termination rates, international roaming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FMC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Femtocells </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. 3.5G issues disruptions / Japan and South Korea: 3G pionners <ul><li>A more important 3G penetration rate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Earlier launch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quicker diffusion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Asia is leading in terms of 3G subscribers figures </li></ul>Source: IDATE 3G market shares (%) 2006: 149 million 3G subscribers 2004: 32 million 3G subscribers Source: IDATE
  7. 7. 3.5G issues disruptions / Mobile trends: 3G data ARPU 3G ARPU … 2006 data Source: IDATE
  8. 8. South Korea <ul><li>3G technologies competing </li></ul>Mobile TV subscribers Source: IDATE Source: MIC Source: MIC
  9. 9. South Korea HSDPA rapid growth …  KT expects 3.1 million WiBro subscribers with ARPU of $33 per month by 2010 … but disapointing WiBro figures Samsung PDA (SPH-M8100 ) LG PDA (LG-KC1) Source: IDATE Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
  10. 10. South Korea Source: IDATE Source: IDATE Source: IDATE Source: KTF Voice vs. data ARPU of SKT (KRW) Data ARPU % Total ARPU - SKT Voice vs. data ARPU of KTF (KRW) Data ARPU % by network - KTF
  11. 11. Japan & USA <ul><li>JAPAN </li></ul><ul><li>A dynamic 3G market: close to 60% of the mobile market (1Q07) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EV-DO subscribers representing 51% of KDDI’s subscriber base (1Q07) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WCDMA: 67% of DoCoMo subs and 48% of Softbank subs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ARPU </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data ARPU representing 32% of total ARPU (2Q07) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increasing competition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Softbank more aggressive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New mobile WiMAX licences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But IP Mobile files for bankruptcy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced T/O and margins </li></ul></ul><ul><li>USA </li></ul><ul><li>A significant increase in data ARPU : from 12% of total ARPU in 2006 to 15.5% (1S2007) </li></ul><ul><li>Verizon 3Q2007 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenues up 14.4 percent.  Data ARPU revenues up 42.9%. ARPU levels highest ever: $52.17 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>AT&T 3Q 2007 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>41 % rise in third-quarter net income </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.4 million iPhones since launching the Apple-branded device in late June </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A 64 percent increase in mobile data revenues </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SPRINT-NEXTEL – Mobile WiMAX </li></ul>Source: DoCoMo The Japanese mobile market
  12. 12. Spectrum issues / The spectrum “hot topics” <ul><li> WRC ’07 (October-November 2007) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile or 4G frequency bands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile services in the UHF and 3.5 GHz bands </li></ul></ul><ul><li> The Digital Dividend (RRC ’06) </li></ul><ul><li> UMTS in the GSM bands </li></ul><ul><li> The 2.6 GHz band & WiMAX development in Western Europe </li></ul>Source: IDATE
  13. 13. Spectrum issues <ul><li>Digital dividend: broadcast & mobile services in UHF bands </li></ul><ul><li>3G « extension band » (2.6 GHz) </li></ul><ul><li>Refarming: UMTS in 2G frequency bands </li></ul><ul><li>IMT advanced bands (« 4G ») </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic access to spectrum </li></ul><ul><li>USA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>700 MHz auctions </li></ul></ul>Short term Long term
  14. 14. Spectrum issues / Major breakpoints in the spectrum field Source: IDATE Main users of radio spectrum Ranking of spectrum users by sector below 1 GHz Ranking of spectrum users by sector between 1 and 10 GHz <ul><li>Main factors driving spectrum demand: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of mobile traffic, multiplication of wireless technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of broadband wireless access </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Convergence in wireless industries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New entrants </li></ul></ul>More spectrum and/or smaller cells? Evolution 1950-2000
  15. 15. Spectrum issues / What is the spectrum / licences price? <ul><li>3G licences price </li></ul>An average value of 10 EUR per pop (upfront payment only) A maximum value of 164 EUR per pop A maximum value of 106 EUR per pop An average value of 23 EUR per pop An average value of 3.2 EUR per pop Source: IDATE
  16. 16. Spectrum issues / What is the spectrum price? Fixed / nomadic services in Western Europe An average license value of 1 EUR per pop Mobile services Source: IDATE Price of WiMAX licenses in selected countries: Hybrid: auction and beauty contest (02 2005) 2.3GHz band (TDD spectrum) 87 million EUR per national licence National Korea Telecom SK Telecom Hanaro Telecom* South Korea Auction (05 2004) 3.4 GHz band PCCW 13 licences for a total of 6.3 million GBP and 330,000 GBP for each remaining licence 15 regional licences Auction of 2.5 to 2.69 GHz spectrum on techno / service neutral basis at the end of 2007. PCCW through UK subsidiary Pound Radio: 13 licences Red Spectrum and Public Hub obtained one licence each The UK Auction (11 2004) 150 blocks of frequencies in the 3.4 to 3.6 GHz band The auctions brought in 6 million EUR Regional 8 operators Norway Auction (12 2006) Four paired 21 MHz blocks between 3.4 GHz and 3.6 GHz in each region The auctions brought in a total 56 million EUR (corresponding to 4 national licences) Four licences auctioned for 28 regions. Bidders could bid for Germany-wide Blocks, or only in specific regions. Clearwire, Inquam and DBS got licences with national coverage. MGM productions got 2 regional licences and Televersa got one. Germany Hybrid: auction and beauty contest (07 2006) 3.4 GHz – 3.6 GHz band Two duplexes of 2x15MHz in each region The auctions brought in a total 125 million EUR (corresponding to 2 national licences) Regional 2 licences for each of the 22 metropolitan regions Bolloré Telecom Maxtel (50% owned by WiMAX operator Altitude Telecom)HDRR (90% owned by tower company TDF) Local authorities France Auction (2004) 3.4 GHz – 3.6 GHz band 2x20MHz in each region Total brought in by the auction: 464,000 EUR of which 160,000 EUR for a nationwide WiMAX telecom licence Regional Assignments in 6 regions WiMAX Telecom GmbH (6 regions) Telekom Austria (5 regions)Telekabel (4 regions)Telesystem Tirol and Teleport Consulting (1 region) Austria Method FDD spectrum Price per licence Licence reach Main licence holders Country
  17. 17. Options for 4G / Which spectrum for 4G? <ul><li>Predicted spectrum requirements by the year 2020 for IMT – 2000 and IMT-Advanced </li></ul><ul><li>Candidate bands </li></ul>Note to Table: Predictions are based on one network deployment Source: ITU Source: IDATE
  18. 18. Options for 4G 3G  4G Verizon: LTE? 2G  3G: Telstra, Vivo…: CDMA 2000 to HSPDA migration Source: IDATE