ELEC 694 COMP 694 Introduction


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ELEC 694 COMP 694 Introduction

  1. 1. ELEC 694 COMP 694 Introduction Scott Cutler [email_address] 1/13/10
  2. 2. Objectives <ul><li>Create a vision of the personal computing and personal digital electronics fields 5 years into the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Derive this vision though a combination of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extrapolating component trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identifying </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Synergies </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interdependences </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bottlenecks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identifying disruptive technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thinking like a CTO </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Course is sub-titled “How to think like a CTO” </li></ul></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  3. 3. Who am I?
  4. 4. Birth Through High School SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 New Haven, CT
  5. 5. MIT SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Cambridge, MA BS 1973 MS 1973 Ph.D. 1976 Zork 1979
  6. 6. GE Research and Development SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Niskayuna, NY First business use of PC (TRS-80) in GE
  7. 7. Tandy Electronics (Radio Shack) SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Fort Worth, TX Deskmate - First graphical Quicken - First graphical Lotus - Foundation for AOL
  8. 8. Chips and Technologies SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 San Jose, CA Wingine Windows Graphics
  9. 9. Digital Equipment Corporation SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Boston, MA CTO – PC Group
  10. 10. Compaq SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Houston, TX CTO – PC Group
  11. 11. Rice University (2001 – Present) SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1 Houston, TX COMP / ELEC 694 Future Personal Computing Technology COMP / ELEC 446 Mobile Wireless Services Project Digital Media Personal Electronics
  12. 12. Current Roster <ul><li>Kiarash Amiri </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ricardo Barrera </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Christopher Boyd </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tate Hornbeck </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Michael Lo </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Niklos Maureira </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Richard Song </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Yiming Wang </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jeffrey Yeh </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Yingbo Yu </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  13. 13. Modeled after MIT’s Area Exam <ul><li>Short term exercise to become fluent in a new technology </li></ul><ul><li>Assess the interrelationships between the new technology and its broader “area”. </li></ul><ul><li>Acts as the qualifying exam for the Ph.D. program. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Taken after the Ph.D. qualifying oral and written exams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Taken after the Master’s degree, but before completing Ph.D. thesis. </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  14. 14. Area Exam Mechanics <ul><li>Provided a topic in a field quite different to your thesis area, but still in the general department area. </li></ul><ul><li>Provided three papers relevant to the specific topic. </li></ul><ul><li>Student lives, eats, sleeps, drinks, etc that topic for three to four weeks and writes a paper summarizing the new topic. </li></ul><ul><li>Student appears before a committee of professors to defend and discuss the topic and paper followed by oral questions in a broad range of area topics. </li></ul><ul><li>Successful students get to stay – others have to leave before completing their thesis. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  15. 15. Area Exam Value <ul><li>Pressure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Often a feeling of being over whelmed at the beginning with little grasp of what is even important in assigned topic or what is important while knowing that they are to defend the topic in front of experts that have the power to deny continued study. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Learn which way is up by the end of the first Week. </li></ul><ul><li>Amazing level of understanding and comfort by end of second week. </li></ul><ul><li>Most people get through exam (although many do not) with an understanding that they can learn a new topic quickly and to not let first impressions make them give up. </li></ul><ul><li>Importance of broad knowledge of field. </li></ul><ul><li>Skill used repeatedly through my career. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  16. 16. Events of the Week <ul><li>The second part of the Area Exam dealt with random questions in your general area </li></ul><ul><li>Brought out the need for balancing breadth with depth </li></ul><ul><li>We will start every week with a 10 minute Events of the Week discussion where you let me know what significant events relevant to the personal electronics area took place over the prior week. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  17. 17. COMP / ELEC-694 Format <ul><li>First two seminars are process and history based. Third session is an overview on what makes a great presentation. </li></ul><ul><li>Series of student led seminars each covering a technology or set of related technologies and products </li></ul><ul><li>A futuristic paper typically on same topic as your talk </li></ul><ul><li>A group project covering group’s vision of a relevant technology / product 5 years out. </li></ul><ul><li>Course finishes with an offsite seminar discussing trends taken to their extreme, interesting products and connected homes (a.k.a. end of semester party) </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  18. 18. Preparation Meetings <ul><li>6 one-on-one preparation meetings prior to seminar. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First meeting five weeks before seminar to discuss general area and potential readings. (~15min) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second meeting, four weeks before seminar, reviews outline of presentation (~1 hr) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PowerPoint outline with slide titles and no content </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Third meeting, three weeks before seminar reviews a first draft of presentation (~1 hr) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Draft contains some content, < 50% complete </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fourth meeting, two weeks before seminar reviews a first draft of presentation (~1 hr) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Draft contains significant content, 90% complete </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fifth meeting, one week before seminar reviews final draft of presentation. (~1 hr) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Completed presentation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sixth meeting, Communications review scheduled in the week prior to presentation with Tracy Volz (~1.5 hr) </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  19. 19. Communications Review <ul><li>1.5 hr. mandatory practice session with Dr. Tracy Volz </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Senior Lecturer of Professional Communication from the Dean of Engineering’s office. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Help develop and improve presentation skills </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Logistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Email final draft to [email_address] one week prior to presentation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contact Dr. Volz two weeks prior to seminar to schedule your review </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Best times for review are either the Friday or Monday before your talk. </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  20. 20. Grading <ul><li>60% Individual Topic Presentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Content and delivery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes Communications evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>15% Discussion Participation </li></ul><ul><li>10% Final Presentation </li></ul><ul><li>15% Final Paper </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  21. 21. Logistics <ul><li>Typical technology seminar format </li></ul><ul><ul><li>0:25 status update and current topics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0:45 presentation on technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0:15 group discussion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0:05 preview of next topic and selected papers to read </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Based on current class size, we will have 10 student presentations. If class size stays above 9, we will have to have a few lectures with two presentations. </li></ul><ul><li>No class on 2/10/2010 (TED Conference) </li></ul><ul><li>Office hours: DH 2049 </li></ul><ul><li>Website: http://www.ece.rice.edu/Courses/694.html </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Phone:281-364-0210 (or Rice office 713 348-2526) </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  22. 22. Scenario of Student Talks <ul><li>When presenting, you are the CTO of a company in a field related to your topic </li></ul><ul><li>You are to convince the audience that the subject topic is relevant and provides a threat and/or opportunity to your company. </li></ul><ul><li>Rest of the class represents the various functional elements. I will act as CEO. You will pretend you are the heads of engineering, marketing, sales, manufacturing, etc. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  23. 23. Seeing the Future <ul><li>Most people have difficulty predicting technology 6 months out, let alone 2 to 5 years. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tendency to wait until something can be touched before starting development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People have even more difficulty seeing the impact on their area from future developments of other technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Often possible to buy your way to 6 months out from where it is easier to predict 12 months out. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  24. 24. Examples <ul><li>Edison demonstrated the phonograph in 1877 </li></ul><ul><li>Henirich Hertz demonstrated transmission and reception of radio waves in 1888. </li></ul><ul><li>Who would have predicted from that radio, television, LCD displays, VCRs, DVDs, Blu-Ray, 3D, camera phones? </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  25. 25. Rapid Technical Advances <ul><li>Airplanes from the Wright brothers to the 787 </li></ul><ul><li>War rockets to Sputnik to walking on the moon </li></ul><ul><li>Telegraph to telephone to mobile radio to billions of cell phones </li></ul><ul><li>The rapid growth of Microsoft, the Internet, Google </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The rapid fall of so many major companies because of the Internet. </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  26. 26. The Future <ul><li>Fully powered self standing wall displays </li></ul><ul><li>Trash cans that remotely signal when empty? </li></ul><ul><li>All the worlds information at your disposal all the time; possibly beamed directly to your brain. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  27. 27. Big Changes Coming <ul><li>What can you enable when you connect a wireless cellular modem to a GPS through the car’s diagnostic port? </li></ul><ul><li>Will TiVo and iPods destroy TV and the recording industry, or will it just reinvent them? </li></ul><ul><li>Will the CD and DVD go the way of the record and the 8-Track? </li></ul><ul><li>What will the 8 th generation iPhone or 6 th generation Android look like? </li></ul><ul><li>Will everything be in the clouds? </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  28. 28. Candidate Topics – Spring 2010 <ul><ul><li>Main Stream Processors and Chipsets (Chris Boyd) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud Computing, next generation web applications (Rick Song) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Storage –SATA, SSD, Flash, HD DVD standards, RAID, Backup, disk in the clouds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Digital Living Room, including Media Center Edition, Video extenders, Apple TV, TiVo, Home Servers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Parallel / multi-core technology for consumer uses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Minimizing spam, identity theft and securing a personal computer. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtualization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gaming Computers and Game Consoles – PS3 v. Xbox 360 v. Wii v. Alienware, Cell v. nVidia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Silverlight, Flash 10, and other next gen app development platforms. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3-D Television, Movies, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Cameras, High Definition, Photo Printing, Digital Video Processing, DVD and solid state media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Andriod vs. iPhone (not for COMP446 students – difficult topic) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>eBooks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>64 bit computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless USB </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadband / Last Mile – implications of 1Mb, 10MB, 50Mb broadband and ubiquitous connectivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Embedded cellular data modems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ultra low powered computing (wirelessly connected devices that are self powered by ambient light). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Rights Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Automotive Electronics Beyond the engine including GPS, XM audio and XM data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer Medical Devices </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  29. 29. Schedule for Spring 2010 <ul><li>01/13/10 Introduction and Waves of Computing (Cutler) </li></ul><ul><li>01/20/10 Historical Perspective On PC Technology (Cutler) </li></ul><ul><li>01/27/10 Creating and Delivering Great Presentations (Volz) </li></ul><ul><li>02/03/10 Processor and Chipset Technologies (Chris Boyd) </li></ul><ul><li>02/10/10 No Class – (TED Conference), prep meetings 2/8/08?? </li></ul><ul><li>02/17/10 Computing in the Clouds (Rick Song) </li></ul><ul><li>02/24/10 Topic 3 </li></ul><ul><li>03/03/10 No Class - Rice midterm recess </li></ul><ul><li>03/10/10 Topic 4 </li></ul><ul><li>03/17/10 Topic 5 </li></ul><ul><li>03/24/10 Topic 6 </li></ul><ul><li>03/31/10 Topic 7 </li></ul><ul><li>04/07/10 Topic 8 </li></ul><ul><li>04/14/10 Topic 9 (Note – may have doubles in 7, 8 or 9 if needed) </li></ul><ul><li>04/21/10 Final Projects - Final Papers Due </li></ul><ul><li>04/25/10 ??? Off-site - Interesting Products, Infinity </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  30. 30. Discussion
  31. 31. ELEC 694 Waves of Computing Scott Cutler [email_address] 01/13/10
  32. 32. The Law of Accelerating Returns <ul><li>Great Paper by Ray Kurzweil </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of technology change is accelerating </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will achieve 100 years of “2000” technology progress in 25 years. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Moore’s law (doubling transistor count of IC’s every 24 months) has lasted 60 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuing, but will flatten (transistors a few atoms wide by 2019) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Was the 5 th , not 1 st technology wave </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Likely to be replaced by 6 th wave via paradigm shift </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  33. 33. Moore’s Law was the 5 th Paradigm to Provide Exponential Growth of Computing SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  34. 34. Kurzweil Computer Brain Calculations <ul><li>Human brain </li></ul><ul><ul><li>100 billion neurons </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>averaging 1,000 connections/neuron </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>200 calculations / sec / neuron </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Human Brain Capability 2*10 16th CPS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Achieve 1 Human Brain Capability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For $1,000 in 2023 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For $0.01 in 2037 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Achieve 1 Human Race Capability 2*10 26th CPS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For $1,000 in 2049 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For $0.01 in 2059 </li></ul></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  35. 35. On Intelligence <ul><li>Jeff Hawkins’ (inventor of the Palm and Treo) book on how the neocortex works. </li></ul><ul><li>Interesting model of brain function based on prediction coupled with alerts when things are not as predicted. </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1
  36. 36. Seminar #2 <ul><li>Technology History </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disruptive Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal Computers 1991 – 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Five year simple extrapolation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Logistics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wednesday, January 20 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10:00 – 11:30 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DH-2014 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Read </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kurzweil - The Law of Accelerating Returns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Optional) Introduction from Christensen – The Innovator’s Dilemma </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Available on http://www.amazon.com </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Prep for Seminars #1, #2 and #3 </li></ul>SEC - 1/13/2010 COMP / ELEC 694, Seminar #1