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  1. 1. Managing Climate Risk in the Cloud Frank Rijsberman, Ph.D. Program Director
  2. 2. Innovating for Good @ Google <ul><ul><li>1% equity and profit + employee time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Themes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Access to Information </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Global health and poverty </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Clean Energy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Build new tools and platforms </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inform discussion, advocate policies </li></ul></ul></ul>
  3. 3. “ In the next decades climate-related disasters could cost US$300 billion per year” --CEPAL, 2002; Swiss Re, 2002 . Vulnerability is inability to cope with change
  4. 4. Climate Change Impacting People Today Based on WHO study
  5. 5. Information Scarcity Increases Climate Change Vulnerability Flood Risk Drought Infectious Disease Floods Humanitarian Food Security
  6. 6. Addressing Information Scarcity <ul><li>Acquiring information – satellites, sensor networks, cloud computing </li></ul><ul><li>Disseminating information – mobile phones, social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Enabling Action – monitoring systems, x-platform communication </li></ul>
  7. 7. Avoided Deforestation Earth Engine powered by Google <ul><li>Earth Engine powered by Google </li></ul>
  8. 8. Show video <ul><li>Earth Engine 2870744_GEStalt_video_07_no </li></ul>
  9. 9. Earth Engine Demo, Powered by Google at COP15 Seeing the Forest through the Cloud The technology platform will:  Increase speed . Running these algorithms today on all of the Amazon, on currently available desktop computers, can take days or weeks. On Google infrastructure this could potentially be reduced to seconds.  Lower cost and complexity . Google hosts all of the required data and software &quot;in the cloud,&quot; saving users from having to manage large-scale storage and computation resources. Facilitate transparency and security . Users control access to their data and results, with the option to keep them private. Because the data, analysis and results reside online, they can also be easily shared and independently verified.  Support climate change policy .  This technology could be used for forest monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in support of efforts such as REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation).
  10. 10. What would it take to create: A global network of citizens who monitor Earth's resources and life supporting systems Not only satellite imagery – community surveillance as well
  11. 11. Environment as Early Warning for infectious disease <ul><li>Environment/climate-Sensitive diseases include: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Malaria Japanese encephalitis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rift Valley Fever </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>West Nile Virus </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Yellow Fever </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Meningitis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dengue </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cholera </li></ul></ul></ul>Jones et al. 2008
  12. 12. Mosquito Swarms   Heavy Rains   Livestock Cases Human  Cases First Veterinary Intervention Response 19 Oct 17 Nov 14 Jan 11 Dec WHO DECLARED HUMAN INDEX CASE Risk factor GEIS EARLY WARNING OUT Cases 30 Oct 30 Nov EMPRES WARNING TO GOV’TS First medical intervention Climate and Environment Information - Provide Early Warning of Disease Rift Valley Fever outbreak, Kenya, 2006/7, >300 people died
  13. 13. <ul><li>Open-source data collection tool kit Cooperative project with UWashington (Gaetano Borriello) </li></ul><ul><li>Based on Android-G1/AppEngine Deployment in Kenya for 300 health workers in HIV-Aids (AMPATH) treatment and prevent program </li></ul>Open Data Kit Xforms (JavaROSA) +Location, +Photos Back-end Database Initially targeting public health Empower others to customize tools
  14. 14. Information Technology support for Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance Network Enhancing Access to information to help identify vulnerabilities , provide early warning, and enable a rapid response
  15. 15. Weather Info for All <ul><li>Put automated weather stations on GSM towers </li></ul><ul><li>19 stations East Africa by mid ’10; 500 thereafter </li></ul><ul><li>Global Humanitarian Forum, WMO, Ericson, Zain, Earth Institute </li></ul><ul><li>See video: YouTube: weather info for all </li></ul>Weather report coverage
  16. 16. Reporting water outages: SMS feedback from consumers on service quality experiment in Zanzibar
  17. 17. Reoptimization of Dam Operations <ul><li>To release a flow pattern that more closely mimics the natural variability in flows. </li></ul><ul><li>By converting dams to “run-of-the-river” operations to r e-create controlled flood events </li></ul><ul><li>By reoperating the entire water management system - not just the storage component. </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt to hydrologic perturbations associated with climate change </li></ul>
  18. 18. Akosombo Dam <ul><li>Completed in 1965 </li></ul><ul><li>Height = 134 meters </li></ul><ul><li>Created Lake Volta, the largest reservoir in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Power Output = 912 MW </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>Today, dams must be reoptimized for other benefits: environmental performance and livelihoods. </li></ul>
  20. 20. How to construct operational models to evaluate a range of scenarios to generate environmental flows? <ul><li>How to relate flow patterns to dam releases? </li></ul><ul><li>How to deal with variable hydrology — including future climate change </li></ul><ul><li>How to make all releases power releases </li></ul><ul><li>How to deal with constraints and limitations </li></ul><ul><li>           i.      Capacity of release works </li></ul><ul><li>            ii.      Power demands </li></ul><ul><li>           iii.      Transmission capacities </li></ul><ul><li>            iv.      Navigation </li></ul><ul><li>              v. Effects on potential for lake perimeter agriculture </li></ul>Proposed GEF dam re-operation project –
  21. 21. Google Crisis Response: use of imagery Cyclone Nargis Hits Myanmar
  22. 22. Situation: Cyclone Nargis strikes Myanmar Before 1 week After Google Map Maker for a cause…disaster relief
  23. 23. Show Video <ul><li>Google Map Maker time lapse video Kottayam, Kerala </li></ul>
  24. 24. Example: Typhoon Ketsana, Philippines <ul><li>Contains: </li></ul><ul><li>Map </li></ul><ul><li>Video news clips </li></ul><ul><li>Donation sites/charities </li></ul><ul><li>Google news </li></ul><ul><li>Ongoing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sourcing aerial imagery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adding developing information </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. <ul><li>Data file with all the roads, POIs and businesses in Africa added in Google Map Maker </li></ul><ul><li>Intended for use by... </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-profit entities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government agencies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Individuals with non commercial intent </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. West Africa flooding, Sep 09 Typhoon Ketsana, Oct 09 UNOSAT– Mapping Flooded areas
  27. 27. Available soon: Airborne affordable versatile hi res imagery from a small plane
  28. 28. WB Development Indicators in Google Search
  29. 29. What to do with all this information? Most pressing constraints are not data or technology related but rather institutional, cultural, economic. Addressing information scarcity is one component of capacity to adapt or respond.
  30. 30. Building Institutional Bridges: Climate and Health Working Groups in Africa Summer Institute ‘ Jun 08 Ethiopia CHWG Sep 2008 Madagascar CHWG Oct 08 Kenya CHWG Dec 08 International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute
  31. 31. Social Networks <ul><li>who is doing what, where? </li></ul><ul><li>Most adaptation will be learned from what others are doing. </li></ul> . Prototype developed by BCAS, ICCAD, IIED, OSS, START, UCT and others.
  32. 32. Summary <ul><li>Climate adaptation increasingly at the core of development and poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Information scarcity key challenge in managing climate risk </li></ul><ul><li>Information technology can play an important role in addressing the information scarcity problem. </li></ul>
  33. 33. [email_address] Thanks!