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    •  
    • Wireless Tutorial Part 3 Mobile Broadband New Applications and New Business Models Brough Turner Dialogic Fanny Mlinarsky octoScope
    • Agenda
      • 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio
        • Lunch
      • 1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing
      • 2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ?
      • Break
      • 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models
      • Break
      • 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
    • The Internet is the killer platform
      • Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage
      • Future business models an open question
        • Walled garden ?
        • Advertising ?
        • Other 2-sided business models ?
    • Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G
      • Voice ― still the largest revenue source
        • Bar none!
      • SMS ― 2 nd largest mobile revenue source
        • Voice SMS, Picture mail & Video mail coming on strong
        • Content !
      • Mobile TV
      • Mobile social networking
    • Mobile Content
      • More music sold on-line than off-line in both China and Korea
      • Ringback tones
        • Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002; 30% adoption in just 9 months
      • Ringback tones today
        • Korea: ~55% adoption
        • China: ~50% adoption
      Any G, 1, 2, 3 or Fixed
    • Japanese Music Revenues Source: Infinity Venture Partners
    • Mobile TV 70% of new handsets in Japan are Mobile TV enabled Only Japan and Korea have multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases Broadcast services independent of 3G
    • Mobile Social Networking Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd. 50 M 6 M 10 M 3 M Mobile users: 2000 2004 2006 2007 Mobile launch: Profit (USD): $225M ~$100M ~$35M ($50M) 2.5G
    • “ 3G” Services
      • 3G-324M Video telephony
      • Location-based services
      • Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS)
      • Rich presence (instant messaging)
      • Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC)
      • IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS)
        • Video sharing (conversational video over IP)
      • Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision
      Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Bypassed ! No traction Still waiting …
    • Mobile operators miss the boat
      • Location-based services (LBS)
      • Required in US for 911 services
      • Fully implemented (after multiple delays)
      • Not made attractive for 3 rd parties
      • Result:
      • All US location-based services based on alternate location approaches
        • GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook
    • Mobile operators slow the boat
      • Billing Services
      • Mobile operators have efficient billing systems & own the customer relationship
      • DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous potential of affordable billing services
      • Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s
      • Result:
      • 3 rd party content is paid for via 3 rd party billing systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s)
    • Mobile Broadband Access US prospects for “over the top” access to the open Internet
    • Breaking Oligopolies
      • Four or more viable competitors is what it takes; more than four and it can be rapid
        • Many examples in mobile voice telephony from around the world
      • 2008: Three established US 3G operators
        • AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS
        • Flat rate data plans expensive, but appearing
    • Additional US 3G Competition
      • T-Mobile USA (well financed)
        • Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout
        • Currently spending almost $1B per quarter, with 3G at 1/3 rd of cell sites as of 3Q08
      • Clearwire (partially financed)
        • WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum
      Expect affordable flat rate mobile broadband in the US in 2010
    • Subscribers & Applications
      • Historically, only applications pre-installed on handsets had any traction
        • “ On-deck” applications and content offers
      • Apple iPhone application store is on-deck
        • Provides access to 100K+ applications
      • Andriod store, Adobe, Nokia initiatives, …
      Application stores are the new “deck”
    • Handset diversity
      • Remaining obstacle to widespread deployment of 3 rd party applications
    • IMS inter-operability bad enough
    • Today’s handsets more diverse
      • Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, …
        • Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, …
      • Runtime environments as several levels
        • Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, …
      • Operating systems
        • Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko…
      • Hardware capabilities
        • CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, …
    • Mobile Software Frameworks Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research
    • Important trends
      • App stores!
        • Easier distribution; Easier discovery
      • More and more smart phones
      • Richer browser capabilities
        • Approaching PC browser functionality
      • New access to device capabilities
        • User data (contacts, logs, …), events (incoming calls) and core functionality
    • Uniquely Mobile Internet
      • Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP
      • Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile
      • Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web
        • Optimize the mobile user experience
      • Phase 4 – client-side mashups
        • telephony, address book, location, camera…
      • Phase 5 – apparent persistence
        • Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; …
    •  
    • Challenges
      • Handset diversity
      • Pace of change
      • Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power
      • Application concurrency
        • Manage flow of events across native, browser and helper apps
      • Persistent user experience across multiple applications
    • Expectations are clear Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Today Browser Mobile Web Mobile Web 2.0 Browser Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Tomorrow
    • The initiative has passed to application developers Biggest Take-Away
    • Dumb Pipes or New Service Opportunities? How operators can profit while providing open mobile access to the Internet
    • Advertising won’t cover lost voice $ Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd.
    • Two-Sided Markets
      • eBay connects sellers and buyers
      • Nightclubs: women get in free
      • Media
        • Newspapers – low prices for subscribers facilitates sales of advertising
        • Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers facilitating sales of advertising
      • Akamai caching benefits
        • Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers
    • 800 numbers
      • The original telco 2-sided play
      • Bell system provided retail phone service to essentially all US consumers
      • Offered “800 service” to businesses, helping them connect with their customers and prospects
    • Billing Service
      • Most operators cautious about partnering
        • Fear of “dumb pipe”  slow roll out of new services
      • DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999
        • Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate
      • But i-mode business model was wide open
        • Free development software; No access restrictions
        • DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions
      • i-mode big success in first 24 months
        • 55,000 applications, 30M subscribers !
    • DoCoMo i-mode: 2-sided business model
      • Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles)
      • Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services
    • DoCoMo’s i-mode
      • Open to any application developer
      • Optional billing for a 9% commission
      • Results:
      • Over 100K new applications in 3+ years
      • Over 15K applications use billing service
      • DoCoMo has highest data revenue per user, in the world
    • Operator Assets
      • Brand, PSTN numbers
      • Location (motion, context, …)
      • Fine-grained billing systems
      • User data
        • Name, address, age, devices, …
      • Rich presence
      • Customer relationships
    • Telco Platform Customers: Revenue Side 2 Customers: Revenue Side 1 Developers B2B VAS Distribution Source: Simon Torrance © 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative $ $ Retailers Government Brand Advertisers Content Owners Telco – Retail Millions of Customers Thousands of Segments
    • Opportunities on all fronts Rich mobile applications coming Business models will change, significantly
    • Agenda
      • 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio
        • Lunch
      • 1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing
      • 2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ?
      • Break
      • 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models
      •  Break 
      • 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
    • Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com
    • Additional Reference Material
    • Mobile Standard Organizations
    • Partnership Projects and Forums
      • ITU IMT-2000: http://www.itu.int/home/imt.html
      • Mobile Partnership Projects
        • 3GPP : http://www.3gpp.org
        • 3GPP2 : http://www.3gpp2.org
      • Mobile marketing alliances and forums
        • GSM Association: http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml
        • UMTS Forum : http://www.umts-forum.org
        • CDMA Development Group: http://www.cdg.org/index.asp
        • Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance: http://www.ngmn.org/
        • Global Mobile Suppliers Association: http://www.gsacom.com
        • CTIA: http://www.ctia.org/
        • 3G Americas: http://www.uwcc.org
    • Mobile Standards Organizations
      • European Technical Standard Institute (Europe):
        • http://www.etsi.org
      • Telecommunication Industry Association (USA):
        • http://www.tiaonline.org
      • Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (USA) (formerly Committee T1):
        • http://www.t1.org & http://www.atis.org/
      • China Communications Standards Association (China):
        • http://www.cwts.org
      • The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (Japan):
        • http://www.arib.or.jp/english/index.html
      • The Telecommunication Technology Committee (Japan):
        • http://www.ttc.or.jp/e/index.html
      • The Telecommunication Technology Association (Korea):
        • http://www.tta.or.kr/english/e_index.htm
    • Other Industry Consortia
      • OMA, Open Mobile Alliance: http://www.openmobilealliance.org/
        • Consolidates Open Mobile Architecture, WAP Forum, Location Interoperability Forum, SyncML, MMS Interoperability Group, Wireless Village
      • Lists of wireless organizations compiled by others:
        • http://www.wipconnector.com/resources.php
        • http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/wtbu/wtbugencontent.tsp?templateId=6123&contentId=4602
        • http://www.wlana.org/pdf/wlan_standards_orgs.pdf
    • Wireless MAN, LAN and PAN Links
      • WirelessMAN – Broadband Access (WiMAX)
        • IEEE 802.16: http://www.ieee802.org/16/
        • WiMAX Forum: http://www.wimaxforum.org/home/
      • Wireless LAN (WiFi)
        • IEEE 802.11: http://www.ieee802.org/11/
        • WiFi Alliance: http://www.wi-fi.org/
        • Wireless LAN Association: http://www.wlana.org/
      • Wireless WPAN (Bluetooth)
        • IEEE 802.15: http://www.ieee802.org/15/
        • Bluetooth SIG: https://www.bluetooth.org/ and http://www.bluetooth.com/
    • Market & Subscriber Statistics
      • Free:
      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators
        • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Europe
        • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Americas
        • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Asia_Pacific_region
        • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Middle_East_and_Africa
      • http://www.gsmworld.com/roaming/gsminfo/index.shtml
      • http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp
      • http://www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
      • Nominal cost:
      • http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html
    • Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com