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  • 1.  
  • 2. Wireless Tutorial Part 3 Mobile Broadband New Applications and New Business Models Brough Turner Dialogic Fanny Mlinarsky octoScope
  • 3. Agenda <ul><li>10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lunch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing </li></ul><ul><li>2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ? </li></ul><ul><li>Break </li></ul><ul><li>3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models </li></ul><ul><li>Break </li></ul><ul><li>4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond </li></ul>
  • 4. The Internet is the killer platform <ul><li>Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage </li></ul><ul><li>Future business models an open question </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Walled garden ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advertising ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other 2-sided business models ? </li></ul></ul>
  • 5. Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G <ul><li>Voice ― still the largest revenue source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar none! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SMS ― 2 nd largest mobile revenue source </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Voice SMS, Picture mail & Video mail coming on strong </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content ! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile TV </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile social networking </li></ul>
  • 6. Mobile Content <ul><li>More music sold on-line than off-line in both China and Korea </li></ul><ul><li>Ringback tones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002; 30% adoption in just 9 months </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ringback tones today </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Korea: ~55% adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China: ~50% adoption </li></ul></ul>Any G, 1, 2, 3 or Fixed
  • 7. Japanese Music Revenues Source: Infinity Venture Partners
  • 8. Mobile TV 70% of new handsets in Japan are Mobile TV enabled Only Japan and Korea have multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases Broadcast services independent of 3G
  • 9. Mobile Social Networking Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd. 50 M 6 M 10 M 3 M Mobile users: 2000 2004 2006 2007 Mobile launch: Profit (USD): $225M ~$100M ~$35M ($50M) 2.5G
  • 10. “ 3G” Services <ul><li>3G-324M Video telephony </li></ul><ul><li>Location-based services </li></ul><ul><li>Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) </li></ul><ul><li>Rich presence (instant messaging) </li></ul><ul><li>Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) </li></ul><ul><li>IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Video sharing (conversational video over IP) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision </li></ul>Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Bypassed ! No traction Still waiting …
  • 11. Mobile operators miss the boat <ul><li>Location-based services (LBS) </li></ul><ul><li>Required in US for 911 services </li></ul><ul><li>Fully implemented (after multiple delays) </li></ul><ul><li>Not made attractive for 3 rd parties </li></ul><ul><li>Result: </li></ul><ul><li>All US location-based services based on alternate location approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook </li></ul></ul>
  • 12. Mobile operators slow the boat <ul><li>Billing Services </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile operators have efficient billing systems & own the customer relationship </li></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous potential of affordable billing services </li></ul><ul><li>Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s </li></ul><ul><li>Result: </li></ul><ul><li>3 rd party content is paid for via 3 rd party billing systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s) </li></ul>
  • 13. Mobile Broadband Access US prospects for “over the top” access to the open Internet
  • 14. Breaking Oligopolies <ul><li>Four or more viable competitors is what it takes; more than four and it can be rapid </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many examples in mobile voice telephony from around the world </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2008: Three established US 3G operators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flat rate data plans expensive, but appearing </li></ul></ul>
  • 15. Additional US 3G Competition <ul><li>T-Mobile USA (well financed) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently spending almost $1B per quarter, with 3G at 1/3 rd of cell sites as of 3Q08 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Clearwire (partially financed) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum </li></ul></ul>Expect affordable flat rate mobile broadband in the US in 2010
  • 16. Subscribers & Applications <ul><li>Historically, only applications pre-installed on handsets had any traction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ On-deck” applications and content offers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Apple iPhone application store is on-deck </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides access to 100K+ applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Andriod store, Adobe, Nokia initiatives, … </li></ul>Application stores are the new “deck”
  • 17. Handset diversity <ul><li>Remaining obstacle to widespread deployment of 3 rd party applications </li></ul>
  • 18. IMS inter-operability bad enough
  • 19. Today’s handsets more diverse <ul><li>Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, … </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Runtime environments as several levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operating systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hardware capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, … </li></ul></ul>
  • 20. Mobile Software Frameworks Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research
  • 21. Important trends <ul><li>App stores! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Easier distribution; Easier discovery </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More and more smart phones </li></ul><ul><li>Richer browser capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Approaching PC browser functionality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New access to device capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>User data (contacts, logs, …), events (incoming calls) and core functionality </li></ul></ul>
  • 22. Uniquely Mobile Internet <ul><li>Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP </li></ul><ul><li>Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Optimize the mobile user experience </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phase 4 – client-side mashups </li></ul><ul><ul><li>telephony, address book, location, camera… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phase 5 – apparent persistence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; … </li></ul></ul>
  • 23.  
  • 24. Challenges <ul><li>Handset diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Pace of change </li></ul><ul><li>Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power </li></ul><ul><li>Application concurrency </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manage flow of events across native, browser and helper apps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Persistent user experience across multiple applications </li></ul>
  • 25. Expectations are clear Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Today Browser Mobile Web Mobile Web 2.0 Browser Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Tomorrow
  • 26. The initiative has passed to application developers Biggest Take-Away
  • 27. Dumb Pipes or New Service Opportunities? How operators can profit while providing open mobile access to the Internet
  • 28. Advertising won’t cover lost voice $ Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd.
  • 29. Two-Sided Markets <ul><li>eBay connects sellers and buyers </li></ul><ul><li>Nightclubs: women get in free </li></ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Newspapers – low prices for subscribers facilitates sales of advertising </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers facilitating sales of advertising </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Akamai caching benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers </li></ul></ul>
  • 30. 800 numbers <ul><li>The original telco 2-sided play </li></ul><ul><li>Bell system provided retail phone service to essentially all US consumers </li></ul><ul><li>Offered “800 service” to businesses, helping them connect with their customers and prospects </li></ul>
  • 31. Billing Service <ul><li>Most operators cautious about partnering </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of “dumb pipe”  slow roll out of new services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But i-mode business model was wide open </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free development software; No access restrictions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>i-mode big success in first 24 months </li></ul><ul><ul><li>55,000 applications, 30M subscribers ! </li></ul></ul>
  • 32. DoCoMo i-mode: 2-sided business model <ul><li>Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles) </li></ul><ul><li>Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services </li></ul>
  • 33. DoCoMo’s i-mode <ul><li>Open to any application developer </li></ul><ul><li>Optional billing for a 9% commission </li></ul><ul><li>Results: </li></ul><ul><li>Over 100K new applications in 3+ years </li></ul><ul><li>Over 15K applications use billing service </li></ul><ul><li>DoCoMo has highest data revenue per user, in the world </li></ul>
  • 34. Operator Assets <ul><li>Brand, PSTN numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Location (motion, context, …) </li></ul><ul><li>Fine-grained billing systems </li></ul><ul><li>User data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Name, address, age, devices, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rich presence </li></ul><ul><li>Customer relationships </li></ul>
  • 35. Telco Platform Customers: Revenue Side 2 Customers: Revenue Side 1 Developers B2B VAS Distribution Source: Simon Torrance © 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative $ $ Retailers Government Brand Advertisers Content Owners Telco – Retail Millions of Customers Thousands of Segments
  • 36. Opportunities on all fronts Rich mobile applications coming Business models will change, significantly
  • 37. Agenda <ul><li>10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lunch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing </li></ul><ul><li>2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ? </li></ul><ul><li>Break </li></ul><ul><li>3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models </li></ul><ul><li>  Break  </li></ul><ul><li>4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond </li></ul>
  • 38. Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com
  • 39. Additional Reference Material
  • 40. Mobile Standard Organizations
  • 41. Partnership Projects and Forums <ul><li>ITU IMT-2000: http://www.itu.int/home/imt.html </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Partnership Projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3GPP : http://www.3gpp.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3GPP2 : http://www.3gpp2.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile marketing alliances and forums </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GSM Association: http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UMTS Forum : http://www.umts-forum.org </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CDMA Development Group: http://www.cdg.org/index.asp </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance: http://www.ngmn.org/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Mobile Suppliers Association: http://www.gsacom.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CTIA: http://www.ctia.org/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3G Americas: http://www.uwcc.org </li></ul></ul>
  • 42. Mobile Standards Organizations <ul><li>European Technical Standard Institute (Europe): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.etsi.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Telecommunication Industry Association (USA): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.tiaonline.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (USA) (formerly Committee T1): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.t1.org & http://www.atis.org/ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China Communications Standards Association (China): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.cwts.org </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (Japan): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.arib.or.jp/english/index.html </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Telecommunication Technology Committee (Japan): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.ttc.or.jp/e/index.html </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Telecommunication Technology Association (Korea): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.tta.or.kr/english/e_index.htm </li></ul></ul>
  • 43. Other Industry Consortia <ul><li>OMA, Open Mobile Alliance: http://www.openmobilealliance.org/ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consolidates Open Mobile Architecture, WAP Forum, Location Interoperability Forum, SyncML, MMS Interoperability Group, Wireless Village </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lists of wireless organizations compiled by others: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.wipconnector.com/resources.php </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/wtbu/wtbugencontent.tsp?templateId=6123&contentId=4602 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.wlana.org/pdf/wlan_standards_orgs.pdf </li></ul></ul>
  • 44. Wireless MAN, LAN and PAN Links <ul><li>WirelessMAN – Broadband Access (WiMAX) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IEEE 802.16: http://www.ieee802.org/16/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WiMAX Forum: http://www.wimaxforum.org/home/ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Wireless LAN (WiFi) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IEEE 802.11: http://www.ieee802.org/11/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WiFi Alliance: http://www.wi-fi.org/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless LAN Association: http://www.wlana.org/ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Wireless WPAN (Bluetooth) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IEEE 802.15: http://www.ieee802.org/15/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bluetooth SIG: https://www.bluetooth.org/ and http://www.bluetooth.com/ </li></ul></ul>
  • 45. Market & Subscriber Statistics <ul><li>Free: </li></ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Europe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Americas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Asia_Pacific_region </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Middle_East_and_Africa </li></ul></ul><ul><li>http://www.gsmworld.com/roaming/gsminfo/index.shtml </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 </li></ul><ul><li>Nominal cost: </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html </li></ul>
  • 46. Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com

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