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  •  
  • Wireless Tutorial Part 3 Mobile Broadband New Applications and New Business Models Brough Turner Dialogic Fanny Mlinarsky octoScope
  • Agenda
    • 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio
      • Lunch
    • 1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing
    • 2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ?
    • Break
    • 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models
    • Break
    • 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
  • The Internet is the killer platform
    • Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage
    • Future business models an open question
      • Walled garden ?
      • Advertising ?
      • Other 2-sided business models ?
  • Leading Apps don’t depend on 3G
    • Voice ― still the largest revenue source
      • Bar none!
    • SMS ― 2 nd largest mobile revenue source
      • Voice SMS, Picture mail & Video mail coming on strong
      • Content !
    • Mobile TV
    • Mobile social networking
  • Mobile Content
    • More music sold on-line than off-line in both China and Korea
    • Ringback tones
      • Created by SK Telecom in Korea in 2002; 30% adoption in just 9 months
    • Ringback tones today
      • Korea: ~55% adoption
      • China: ~50% adoption
    Any G, 1, 2, 3 or Fixed
  • Japanese Music Revenues Source: Infinity Venture Partners
  • Mobile TV 70% of new handsets in Japan are Mobile TV enabled Only Japan and Korea have multi-million Mobile TV subscriber bases Broadcast services independent of 3G
  • Mobile Social Networking Source: Benjamin Joffe, Plus Eight Star Ltd. 50 M 6 M 10 M 3 M Mobile users: 2000 2004 2006 2007 Mobile launch: Profit (USD): $225M ~$100M ~$35M ($50M) 2.5G
  • “ 3G” Services
    • 3G-324M Video telephony
    • Location-based services
    • Push-to-Talk (VoIP w/o QoS)
    • Rich presence (instant messaging)
    • Fixed-mobile convergence (FMC)
    • IP Multimedia Services (w/ QoS)
      • Video sharing (conversational video over IP)
    • Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision
    Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Limited adoption Bypassed ! No traction Still waiting …
  • Mobile operators miss the boat
    • Location-based services (LBS)
    • Required in US for 911 services
    • Fully implemented (after multiple delays)
    • Not made attractive for 3 rd parties
    • Result:
    • All US location-based services based on alternate location approaches
      • GPS, Cell ID, Navizon, Skyhook
  • Mobile operators slow the boat
    • Billing Services
    • Mobile operators have efficient billing systems & own the customer relationship
    • DoCoMo showed (I-Mode in 1999) the enormous potential of affordable billing services
    • Yet billing still offered only via premium rate #s
    • Result:
    • 3 rd party content is paid for via 3 rd party billing systems or (multiple) premium rate SMS(s)
  • Mobile Broadband Access US prospects for “over the top” access to the open Internet
  • Breaking Oligopolies
    • Four or more viable competitors is what it takes; more than four and it can be rapid
      • Many examples in mobile voice telephony from around the world
    • 2008: Three established US 3G operators
      • AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless & Sprint PCS
      • Flat rate data plans expensive, but appearing
  • Additional US 3G Competition
    • T-Mobile USA (well financed)
      • Paid $4.2B for AWS spectrum in 2006 and committed additional $2.7B for initial rollout
      • Currently spending almost $1B per quarter, with 3G at 1/3 rd of cell sites as of 3Q08
    • Clearwire (partially financed)
      • WiMAX on Clearwire and Sprint spectrum
    Expect affordable flat rate mobile broadband in the US in 2010
  • Subscribers & Applications
    • Historically, only applications pre-installed on handsets had any traction
      • “ On-deck” applications and content offers
    • Apple iPhone application store is on-deck
      • Provides access to 100K+ applications
    • Andriod store, Adobe, Nokia initiatives, …
    Application stores are the new “deck”
  • Handset diversity
    • Remaining obstacle to widespread deployment of 3 rd party applications
  • IMS inter-operability bad enough
  • Today’s handsets more diverse
    • Browsers – Openwave, Opera, Safari, …
      • Using: WebKit, Netfront, Presto, …
    • Runtime environments as several levels
      • Adobe AIR, .Net/Silverlight, Brew, JavaME, …
    • Operating systems
      • Symbian, WinMobile, Android, OpenMoko…
    • Hardware capabilities
      • CPUs, supported codecs, screen size, …
  • Mobile Software Frameworks Source: Andrea Constantinou, ©2008 VisionMobile Research
  • Important trends
    • App stores!
      • Easier distribution; Easier discovery
    • More and more smart phones
    • Richer browser capabilities
      • Approaching PC browser functionality
    • New access to device capabilities
      • User data (contacts, logs, …), events (incoming calls) and core functionality
  • Uniquely Mobile Internet
    • Phase 1 – cut down web, e.g. WAP
    • Phase 2 – full web accessible on mobile
    • Phase 3 – designed-for-mobile web
      • Optimize the mobile user experience
    • Phase 4 – client-side mashups
      • telephony, address book, location, camera…
    • Phase 5 – apparent persistence
      • Despite battery limitations; widgets; push; …
  •  
  • Challenges
    • Handset diversity
    • Pace of change
    • Battery life – “chatty” apps drain power
    • Application concurrency
      • Manage flow of events across native, browser and helper apps
    • Persistent user experience across multiple applications
  • Expectations are clear Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Today Browser Mobile Web Mobile Web 2.0 Browser Camera Media Player Phone Mobile Telephony Tomorrow
  • The initiative has passed to application developers Biggest Take-Away
  • Dumb Pipes or New Service Opportunities? How operators can profit while providing open mobile access to the Internet
  • Advertising won’t cover lost voice $ Source: Telco 2.0 Manifesto, STL Partners Ltd.
  • Two-Sided Markets
    • eBay connects sellers and buyers
    • Nightclubs: women get in free
    • Media
      • Newspapers – low prices for subscribers facilitates sales of advertising
      • Broadcast TV – free attracts viewers facilitating sales of advertising
    • Akamai caching benefits
      • Free to ISPs; Paid for by content providers
  • 800 numbers
    • The original telco 2-sided play
    • Bell system provided retail phone service to essentially all US consumers
    • Offered “800 service” to businesses, helping them connect with their customers and prospects
  • Billing Service
    • Most operators cautious about partnering
      • Fear of “dumb pipe”  slow roll out of new services
    • DoCoMo i-mode 2G data service launched 1999
      • Small screens, slow (9.6 kbps) data rate
    • But i-mode business model was wide open
      • Free development software; No access restrictions
      • DoCoMo’s “bill-on-behalf” with 9% commissions
    • i-mode big success in first 24 months
      • 55,000 applications, 30M subscribers !
  • DoCoMo i-mode: 2-sided business model
    • Subscribers pay for data access (flat rate monthly bundles)
    • Application providers pay DoCoMo for billing services
  • DoCoMo’s i-mode
    • Open to any application developer
    • Optional billing for a 9% commission
    • Results:
    • Over 100K new applications in 3+ years
    • Over 15K applications use billing service
    • DoCoMo has highest data revenue per user, in the world
  • Operator Assets
    • Brand, PSTN numbers
    • Location (motion, context, …)
    • Fine-grained billing systems
    • User data
      • Name, address, age, devices, …
    • Rich presence
    • Customer relationships
  • Telco Platform Customers: Revenue Side 2 Customers: Revenue Side 1 Developers B2B VAS Distribution Source: Simon Torrance © 2008, STL Partners Ltd/Telco 2.0TM Initiative $ $ Retailers Government Brand Advertisers Content Owners Telco – Retail Millions of Customers Thousands of Segments
  • Opportunities on all fronts Rich mobile applications coming Business models will change, significantly
  • Agenda
    • 10:30 – 12:00 noon Our G-enealogy – History and Evolution of Mobile Radio
      • Lunch
    • 1:00 – 2:00 The IEEE’s Wireless Ethernet Keeps Going and Growing
    • 2:00 – 2:45 4G Tutorial: Vive la Différence ?
    • Break
    • 3:00 – 3:45 Mobile Broadband - New Applications and New Business Models
    •  Break 
    • 4:00 – 4:45 Tutorial: White Spaces and Beyond
  • Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com
  • Additional Reference Material
  • Mobile Standard Organizations
  • Partnership Projects and Forums
    • ITU IMT-2000: http://www.itu.int/home/imt.html
    • Mobile Partnership Projects
      • 3GPP : http://www.3gpp.org
      • 3GPP2 : http://www.3gpp2.org
    • Mobile marketing alliances and forums
      • GSM Association: http://www.gsmworld.com/index.shtml
      • UMTS Forum : http://www.umts-forum.org
      • CDMA Development Group: http://www.cdg.org/index.asp
      • Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance: http://www.ngmn.org/
      • Global Mobile Suppliers Association: http://www.gsacom.com
      • CTIA: http://www.ctia.org/
      • 3G Americas: http://www.uwcc.org
  • Mobile Standards Organizations
    • European Technical Standard Institute (Europe):
      • http://www.etsi.org
    • Telecommunication Industry Association (USA):
      • http://www.tiaonline.org
    • Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (USA) (formerly Committee T1):
      • http://www.t1.org & http://www.atis.org/
    • China Communications Standards Association (China):
      • http://www.cwts.org
    • The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (Japan):
      • http://www.arib.or.jp/english/index.html
    • The Telecommunication Technology Committee (Japan):
      • http://www.ttc.or.jp/e/index.html
    • The Telecommunication Technology Association (Korea):
      • http://www.tta.or.kr/english/e_index.htm
  • Other Industry Consortia
    • OMA, Open Mobile Alliance: http://www.openmobilealliance.org/
      • Consolidates Open Mobile Architecture, WAP Forum, Location Interoperability Forum, SyncML, MMS Interoperability Group, Wireless Village
    • Lists of wireless organizations compiled by others:
      • http://www.wipconnector.com/resources.php
      • http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/wtbu/wtbugencontent.tsp?templateId=6123&contentId=4602
      • http://www.wlana.org/pdf/wlan_standards_orgs.pdf
  • Wireless MAN, LAN and PAN Links
    • WirelessMAN – Broadband Access (WiMAX)
      • IEEE 802.16: http://www.ieee802.org/16/
      • WiMAX Forum: http://www.wimaxforum.org/home/
    • Wireless LAN (WiFi)
      • IEEE 802.11: http://www.ieee802.org/11/
      • WiFi Alliance: http://www.wi-fi.org/
      • Wireless LAN Association: http://www.wlana.org/
    • Wireless WPAN (Bluetooth)
      • IEEE 802.15: http://www.ieee802.org/15/
      • Bluetooth SIG: https://www.bluetooth.org/ and http://www.bluetooth.com/
  • Market & Subscriber Statistics
    • Free:
    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators
      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_Europe
      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Americas
      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Asia_Pacific_region
      • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators_of_the_Middle_East_and_Africa
    • http://www.gsmworld.com/roaming/gsminfo/index.shtml
    • http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp
    • http://www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
    • Nominal cost:
    • http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html
  • Brough Turner, Chief Strategy Officer, Dialogic [email_address] Blog: http://blogs.nmss.com/communications/ [email_address] Skype: brough www.octoscope.com