"It's happening. It not happening in
10 years. It's happening in 5 years."
-Nicholas Negroponte (at Techonomy conference, 2010-08-06)
"Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos predicts that
e-book sales will surpass paperback
sales within the next 12 months, and
combined hardcover and paperback
sales soon after that. This despite the
fact that the 600,000 titles in the
Kindle bookstore represents only a
fraction of Amazon's inventory."
Publishers add most
value at the
end of a book.
(indexing, copy editing, technical editing,
marketing, printing [while that matters],
distribution channels, etc.)
Only the most
need all this; the rest
can stay self-
This will especially
be true if/when
there are only 3
iBooks and PDF) that
-- all of which don’t
Publishers will take
less risk and authors
will get a better deal.
This is just like the emerging new
dynamic between VCs and founders
of consumer internet companies.
*These predictions assume that neither
Amazon nor Apple will end up with a total
victory. If either of them do, it’s all over.
As long as they are fiercely competing, the
situation is very good for authors (and
Leanpub) and tolerable for publishers.