Lean Publishing Presentation

Lean Publishing Peter Armstrong

Is the physical book dead?

"It's happening. It not happening in 10 years. It's happening in 5 years." -Nicholas Negroponte (at Techonomy conference, 2010-08-06)

"Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos predicts that e-book sales will surpass paperback sales within the next 12 months, and combined hardcover and paperback sales soon after that. This despite the fact that the 600,000 titles in the Kindle bookstore represents only a fraction of Amazon's inventory." - http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/30/amazon-kindle-economy-environment-opinions- columnists-reihan-salam.html

That’s NOT the most important question!

Are publishers dead if/when the physical book dies?

That’s NOT the most important question either!

Are books dead?

NO! (yay!)

Books will outlast TV networks.

So, what is the most important question?

How should authors publish their books?

NOT Stieg’s way.

Traditional Publishers? Self-Publishing?

What are the problems for AUTHORS of traditionally- published books?

Horrible Royalty Percentage (especially on e-books)

Irrelevance, Failure and Obscurity

Is there a solution?

NO. There’s no universal solution--some books are just lousy.

Is there an improved approach for some authors and books?

Lean Publishing

Lean Publishing 1. Manifesto 2. Theory 3. Practice

1. Manifesto

Lean Publishing Elevator Pitch

Imagine a world in which authors can actually make money writing books...

Imagine a world in which authors can have a meaningful conversation with their readers about their books. Now imagine if this was possible before these books were even finished...

Isn't Lean Publishing Just Self-Publishing?

Self-Publishing: A way to publish finished books. Lean Publishing: A way to write and publish in-progress books.

Isn't Lean Publishing the same as the Beta Books, Rough Cuts or Early Access programs of certain traditional publishers of computer books?

A Book is a Startup

1. There are market risks, technical risks and a very low probability of success.

2. Both writing a book and creating a startup are highly creative processes undertaken by one or a few people working closely together.

3. Historically it has taken about a year, often spent in isolation or "stealth mode", to develop and release the first version.

4. Historically, startups have been funded by VCs and authors have been funded by publishers, both of which are hit-driven businesses.

Consequence: It's Very Easy To Create Something Nobody Wants

Solution: Use Lean Startup Principles

2. Theory

The Lean Startup and Customer Development

Steve Blank: Customer Development

Eric Ries: Customer Development + Agile Methodology = The Lean Startup

Open Source Software: Release Early, Release Often and Listen to your Customers

Lessons Learned from Lean Startups

Publish Early (Fail Fast)

Publish Often and Listen to Your Readers

Build a Community of Readers

Lessons Learned from Blogs

Good Blogs are Beta Books

Successful Blogs Build Communities

3. Practice

The Lean Publishing How-To Guide (Non-Fiction Version)

Step 1: Blog, Tumble and Tweet to Find Your Voice and Build an Audience

Step 2: Write the Minimum Viable Book

Step 3: Start Marketing and Selling the In-Progress Minimum Viable Book

Step 4: Finish the Book with Constant Feedback from your Readers

Step 5: Market and Sell the Completed Book, Possibly with a Traditional Publisher

Tangent: Why does Lean Publishing make so much sense for technology books?

The Technology Adoption and Information Distribution Lifecycle

Lean Publishing Is Not Just For Technical Books

Non-Fiction

Fiction (?)

Case Studies

37signals: Signal vs. Noise, Getting Real and Rework

Sell the Blog: Startup Lessons Learned and The Venture Hacks Bible

Flexible Rails (The origin of Lean Publishing, as well as of Ruboss and Leanpub.)

What Does Lean Publising Mean for Publishers?

Authors will have a better BATNA. (Sorry.)

Publishers add most value at the end of a book. (indexing, copy editing, technical editing, marketing, printing [while that matters], distribution channels, etc.)

Only the most successful books need all this; the rest can stay self- published more profitably.

This will especially be true if/when there are only 3 channels (Kindle, iBooks and PDF) that matter -- all of which don’t require publishers.

Publishers will take less risk and authors will get a better deal. This is just like the emerging new dynamic between VCs and founders of consumer internet companies. *

*These predictions assume that neither Amazon nor Apple will end up with a total victory. If either of them do, it’s all over. As long as they are fiercely competing, the situation is very good for authors (and Leanpub) and tolerable for publishers.

Thanks! Peter Armstrong

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Lean Publishing Presentation

by Peter Armstrong on Aug 07, 2010

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