TDM & Climate Change Kevin Luten
<ul><li>Transport is fastest growing sector of GHG emissions in OECD ( ↑ 25%) and non-OECD ( ↑ 36%) countries (1990-2002) ...
Socolow and Pacala, Princeton University
TDM & Climate Change
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Advantages, disadvantages and challenges of online course


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  • Advantages, disadvantages and challenges of online course

    1. 1. TDM & Climate Change Kevin Luten
    2. 4. <ul><li>Transport is fastest growing sector of GHG emissions in OECD ( ↑ 25%) and non-OECD ( ↑ 36%) countries (1990-2002) </li></ul><ul><li>Similar growth forecast through 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Fastest growth in non-OECD countries, yet OECD transport emissions still very significant </li></ul>Climate Change & Transportation
    3. 5. Socolow and Pacala, Princeton University
    4. 6. TDM & Climate Change
    5. 7. <ul><li>Transportation Wedge Options: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase fuel economy of two billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drive two billion cars on ethanol or hydrogen* </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drive two billion cars not 10,000 but 5,000 km/year (at 30 mpg) </li></ul></ul>
    6. 8. Climate Change & Transportation <ul><li>Transport solutions: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel-efficiency (vehicle & engine design) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Decrease carbon intensity of fuels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce vehicle miles traveled </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Total success with #1 and #2 does not address: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Traffic congestion </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Public health </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 9. TDM & Climate Change <ul><li>Are there opportunities for TDM related to climate change? </li></ul><ul><li>Who are we selling TDM to? </li></ul><ul><li>Individuals </li></ul><ul><li>Businesses </li></ul><ul><li>Political leaders </li></ul>
    8. 10. TDM & Climate Change <ul><li>Distinctions in TDM sales angles… </li></ul><ul><li>Congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Air quality </li></ul><ul><li>Public health (stress, obesity, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Business bottom-line benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency, energy independence </li></ul><ul><li>More… </li></ul>
    9. 11. Climate Change & Individuals <ul><li>Individuals… </li></ul><ul><li>Washington Post / ABC News Poll: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doubling within a year of Americans (33%) that think climate change is biggest environmental problem facing the world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Single digits in mid-1990s </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Katrina, temperatures, other weather events </li></ul><ul><li>Inconvenient Truth </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC Report, Stern Report </li></ul>
    10. 12. Climate Change & Individuals <ul><li>Washington Post / ABC News Poll: </li></ul><ul><li>How willing are you personally to change some of the things you do in order to help improve the environment - very willing, somewhat willing, not so willing or not willing at all? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>94% - willing, somewhat willing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What if it means some personal inconvenience - would you be as willing to change some of the things you do, or less so? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>85% - still willing </li></ul></ul>
    11. 13. Climate Change & Individuals
    12. 14. Climate Change & Individuals <ul><li>A standard environmental issue? Poll: </li></ul><ul><li>70% feel climate change will pose a serious threat to future generations </li></ul><ul><li>63% believe we must start addressing it today </li></ul><ul><li>50% believe steps must be taken today, even if there is a high economic cost to the US </li></ul><ul><ul><li>40%, if politically conservatives </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1,000 born-again or evangelical Protestants </li></ul>
    13. 15. Climate Change & Individuals <ul><li>Evangelical Climate Initiative: </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change: An Evangelical Call to Action </li></ul><ul><li>Signed by 39 evangelical colleges, the Salvation Army, Rick Warren, and others </li></ul><ul><li>Positions climate change as a moral issue and a social justice issue </li></ul><ul><li>Calls for Federal action requiring </li></ul><ul><li>reductions in CO2 emissions </li></ul>
    14. 16. <ul><li>Individuals… </li></ul>
    15. 18. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Roles for business? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitive advantage </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reducing emissions “will save money for our customers, make us a more efficient business, and help position us to compete effectively in a carbon-constrained world.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Lee Scott, Wal-mart </li></ul>
    16. 19. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Business risks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Physical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reputational </li></ul></ul>
    17. 20. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>304 investors, US$41 trillion (32%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Backed by HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seeks information and data on emissions and business risks and opportunities from climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>940 of the world’s largest companies reported in CDP4 in 2006 (72% if FT500) </li></ul></ul>
    18. 21. Climate Change & Business GlobeScan, 2006 DEH, 2005
    19. 22. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Competitive Advantage on a Warming Planet: </li></ul><ul><li>Quantify your carbon “footprint” (GHG inventory) </li></ul><ul><li>Assess your carbon-related risks and opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Adapt your business </li></ul><ul><li>Do it better than rivals </li></ul>
    20. 23. GHG Inventories <ul><li>WRI / WBCSD Greenhouse Gas Protocol: </li></ul><ul><li>Organisational boundaries </li></ul><ul><li>Operational boundaries </li></ul><ul><li>“ direct” and “indirect” emissions </li></ul>
    21. 24. WRI / WBCSD
    22. 25. GHG Inventories <ul><li>Guidance for Scope 3 emissions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Relevance and significance” of these emissions to org. operations or goals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>As defined by any / all of 4 factors: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Relative size </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Risk </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholder concern </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Company influence </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    23. 26. GHG Inventories Relative Significance and Influence
    24. 27. GHG Inventories <ul><li>Companies influence commute behavior: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>86% of employees without employer program drive alone versus 71% of employees with employer programs (U.S. nationwide survey, 2001) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total vehicle trips declined by 17% after employers at eight worksites launched parking cash out programs (Shoup, 1997) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employees teleworking take 30% fewer daily trips, with a 63% reduction in VKT (all daily trips) </li></ul></ul>
    25. 28. GHG Inventories Companies influence commute behaviour:
    26. 29. GHG Inventories Employer-paid parking increases solo driving 60%
    27. 30. GHG Inventories <ul><li>Three examples: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>World Resources Institute </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IKEA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Six New Zealand government agencies </li></ul></ul>
    28. 31. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Overlapping corporate initiatives: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GHG emissions analysis / mitigation (CDP) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability reporting (GRI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate social responsibility programmes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employee health & wellness programmes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Workplace TDM programs </li></ul></ul>
    29. 32. Climate Change & Business LTNZ Workplace Travel Planning Guide WRI GHG Protocol
    30. 33. Climate Change & Business <ul><li>Critical issues moving forward: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish norms for inclusion of employee commutes in GHG inventories for knowledge and service organization (gov’t leadership) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stress process linkages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carpe diem </li></ul></ul>
    31. 34. Climate Change & Politics <ul><li>PlaNYC: A Greener, Greater New York </li></ul><ul><li>Congestion charging, revenue for transit </li></ul><ul><li>BRT lanes </li></ul><ul><li>Increase bike paths, promote bicycling </li></ul><ul><li>Eliminate tax on hybrids </li></ul>
    32. 35. Climate Change & Politics US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement – 600 mayors signed on
    33. 36. TDM & Climate Change <ul><li>Potential threats: </li></ul><ul><li>Individual attitudes and motivation to act unsatisfied, or satisfied through other means </li></ul><ul><li>Cap-trade induced demand overwhelms TDM </li></ul><ul><li>Business rapidly assemble climate change strategies without TDM </li></ul><ul><li>TDM not seen as too minor a solution </li></ul><ul><li>Political push leads to funding and mainstreaming of sustainable transport strategies separate from TDM groups </li></ul>
    34. 38. Kevin Luten +61 (03) 9018 5435 [email_address]
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