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Driving Disruption

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Understanding & Driving Disruption

Understanding & Driving Disruption

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  • Stage 1 Pure function is all that matters: If the one thing it does is the only option available, people will be happy with it.Stage 2 Feature Wars: The number of features matters because frequently the buyer doesn't understand what each feature actually means. Later in this phase, specific features do make a difference as people are looking for certain features to make their purchase decisions.Stage 3 Experience Wars: The experience and total cost of ownership matters most. Products with fewer -but better- features will trump the more feature-laden winners of Stage II.Stage 4 Commodities: The actual item becomes absorbed into a larger product mix. Individual features of the technology no longer matter, but become a price/performance issue for the integrator.
  • ME DIFFERENThttp://www.saunderslog.com/2005/11/11/me-different/VoIP is a classic Innovators Dilemma scenario. A cheaper technology, which is good enough, is used to attack an incumbent provider forcing a change in the basis of competition. This diagram (linked to a full size image if you click on it) illustrates the way this works very neatly.All markets go through these phases, or something like them, anyway. Competition based on arbitrage, which is where the VoIP market started, is a Phase 4 market. There’s really no place to go except to cheaper… What we’re all trying to do is to reset the basis of competition to functionality, recognizing that ever cheaper phone calls, while great for the consumer, are a lousy basis on which to build a business. The incumbents, however, would like the basis for competition to remain price. They’ve amortized their plants, they’ve got government regulated monopolies, and can continue to drop price as long as required. So, why can’t the market just stay the same as it always has? Two reasons:Starting in 1996, regulatory oversight demanded that there be a "competitive" market. Those regulated monopolies had to provide access to their pipes on a cost-plus basis to anyone who wanted to use them. Overnight there was an explosion of CLECs, and IXC’s. Fortunes were made and lost as these companies built out, up, over anything possible. Most focused on the business customer, but even so, well over 90% of the competitive carriers that were started no longer exist. Why? It was expensive to get into the business, and demand for competitive providers for basic telephony service wasn’t really there.Moore’s Law has caught up with the telecom equipment manufacturers. When I first started in this industry, in the 1980′s, Nortel built their own CPU’s, chassis, line cards, disks, operating systems, programming languages, and applications. One of my jobs as a student was at the Toronto Labs debugging the code that lit the message waiting lamps on telephones attached to the SL1 PBX. The SL1 CPU was a card the size of a 3 ring binder. The OS was a Nortel invention. We wrote our code in BNR Pascal, a multi-tasking variant of Pascal (like C with forks). It was a completely vertically integrated system, delivering high value to customers, and able to command a high price. Today, Intel, Motorola, IBM and many others build switches based on PICMG 3 – a standardized chassis, and bus architecture – using Carrier Grade Linux, GNU tools, and off the shelf CPU’s, memory, and disks. There has been a 100x reduction in the price of telecom equipment. So, anyone can enter the market (federal law), and advances in technology (moore’s law) have made it cost effective for… anyone to enter the market.The third element of this heady brew is simply this — just as hardware has moved from vertically integrated architectures to horizontal architectures, SIP is driving services to do the same. The vertically integrated hardware / software combination Nortel et al used to sell has become a horizontal package of components, and distributed software and services. As I wrote about in my Voice 2.0 essay, the services market is going to decompose into directory, access, and applications. This is the evolution of the services market into a horizontal market, and it’s an important evolution because horizontal strategies allow vendors to focus on becoming domain experts, and encourage powerful ecosystems to develop. Those that cling to vertically integrated strategies will fail. Moving back to the Innovators Dilemma diagram, it’s clear that today’s VoIP upstarts are successfully using the shift to horizontal market strategies as a means to reset the basis of competition to Phase 1. They’ve duplicated, or nearly duplicated the PSTN, and added some new features. Some are now starting to focus on Phase 2: Reliability. Smart VoIP vendors are going to stay focused on functionality for some time, using their ability to deliver inexpensive basic services as a spring board to get beyond that into value added services that consumers will pay real money for. Those that don’t are going to go the way of the majority of the CLECs.Me too, me also? Yup. And until the market moves beyond access and directory, that’s all we’re going to get. The applications market is the Me Different market. It will take time, but it’s coming.
  • Stage 1 Pure function is all that matters: If the one thing it does is the only option available, people will be happy with it.Stage 2 Feature Wars: The number of features matters because frequently the buyer doesn't understand what each feature actually means. Later in this phase, specific features do make a difference as people are looking for certain features to make their purchase decisions.Stage 3 Experience Wars: The experience and total cost of ownership matters most. Products with fewer -but better- features will trump the more feature-laden winners of Stage II.Stage 4 Commodities: The actual item becomes absorbed into a larger product mix. Individual features of the technology no longer matter, but become a price/performance issue for the integrator.
  • Recognize every opportunity! Often we’re so convinced that only one path is right for us, that we completely turn down the possibility of anything else ever evolving in our lives. Maybe we finally feel comfortable in a place, therefore completely refuse the idea of ever needing to move anywhere else. Other times we think that we have a  “type” of person, and if someone we meet does not fall within that category, then getting to know this person would only be considered a complete waste of time. We limit our options and possibilities even before we give them chance, closing out potentially amazing worlds that could grow within us if we would only have the courage to be open to the new and unknown.           I think that generally we choose to set our life paths on either a career, a location, or a relationship. A direction is always needed and important in developing our lives, although we must always remember that it is ok and sometimes necessary to change direction! Maybe you decided to move to a city that you love and then while you were there fell in love with someone from another city. It is understandable that you would then decide to potentially go to that other city with the person you love. Or maybe your career brought you to a location that then allowed you to the meet the person you know you want to spend the rest of your life with and your career became less important. That is fantastic! Allow every opportunity to open itself in your life and don’t be too close-minded to think that there is only one correct path for you. We think we know what is best for us so we make all these intense plans and to-do lists, but in reality, plans usually don’t work out the way we think. If we allow them to, they work out even better then we could have ever imagined. We just have to have the strength and courage to trust that our lives are unfolding in the way that is best for us.            Let’s always try to remember that not all great things have great beginnings. It is possible that what seems like a serious and distressing matter could lead you to the beginning of something wonderful. Trust that everything is connected. It always seems like when you least expect it, when you are about to give up, that something happens in your life that restores all faith and gives you the courage to continue. For example, maybe one day you will loose your credit card, but then as you are going to the bank to close your account, you may meet someone extraordinary that will change your life forever. Or maybe as your car breaks down and you are at the gas station waiting for it to be towed, someone will come talk to you and will give you a wonderful idea for a new business venture. Who knows? Believe that there is always a positive side to every single thing that happens in life and that life can change direction when you least expect it, because it can, and it does.
  • Anderson believes that online videos are fueling revolutions in creativity.Five hundred years ago, the printing press marked a rise in the power of the written word over human speech. Now, Chris Anderson thinks that web videos could reverse that change with some amazing benefits. Anderson is the head of TED, the popular global conference on technology, entertainment, and design. During his recent talk at TED 2010, Anderson described how web videos, epitomized in YouTube, allowed groups all around the globe to share ideas in ways that spurred creativity. This ‘crowd accelerated innovation’ is increasing in power as more and more people go online and as more of the web is dominated by video content. Already the fields of dance and extreme sports have seen web videos act as a crucial means of evaluating and inspiring communities of performers. Watch Anderson’s presentation in the video below to see some amazing examples of this phenomenon. What happens when this same accelerating push is brought to bear on teachers, scientists, and everyone else in the world?
  • Anderson’s argument is that web videos in general could bring exponential growth in innovation to every group that communicates online. The idea is simple enough – bring enough people with a common interest together and they will start to share and compete and improve. The bigger the crowd, the greater the chance of innovation, and the more people who witness and benefit from that innovation. The system feeds upon itself. Web videos are creating crowds in the millions and billions, and have the potential to create powerful feedback loops. In order to do so, Anderson believes that we must preserve open sharing, and points to TED’s own open distribution of videos (~7:03). Anderson’s vision for the future is painted in broad strokes, and it’s unclear what the benefits and limits of crowd-fueled creativity will be. Still, it’s hard to ignore that there is some potential building as billions of new people move online.

Transcript

  • 1. driving Prakash Bagri @prbagri
  • 2. ExperiencingUnderstandingHarnessing
  • 3. what is ?
  • 4. “Disruptive technologies bring to market a very different value proposition than had been available previously.Disruptors offer features new customersvalue and “are typically cheaper, simpler, smaller [or] more convenient to use.” Clayton ChristensenBest-selling Author, Innovation Guru.
  • 5. experiencing
  • 6. 8
  • 7. Source: http://www.moyeamedia.com/blog/?p=2869
  • 8. SRA/ Ericsson MTA : 1956 Motorola Dynatac 8000X : 1983 Nokia Mobira Talkman : 1984 Motorola MicroTAC : 1989 Motorola 2900 Bag Phone : 1994 Motorola StarTAC : 1996 Nokia 9000i Communicator : 1997 Nokia 8810 : 1998 Nokia 7110 : 1999 RIM BlackBerry 5810 : 2002 Sanyo SCP 5310 : 2002 T-Mobile Sidekick (Danger Hiptop) : 2002 Motorola Razr V3 : 2004 Apple iPhone : 2007Source: PC World, 5 Oct 2005
  • 9. “Disruptive technologies bring to market a very different value proposition than had been available previously. Disruptors offer features that new customers value and “are typically cheaper, simpler, smaller [or] more convenient to use.”
  • 10. understanding
  • 11. Disruptive Technology OrDisruptive Innovation?
  • 12. Performance measure (e.g., speed) plotted on a linear scale follows the shape of an S over time, ultimately reaching a limit determined by some fundamental physical constraint associated with the underlying technology, such as a basic law of physics. At this point, the technology is mature with no potential for further improvement.
  • 13. Market Breakthrough Incremental c Innovation b d Benefits per Dollar Radical Innovation Existing Technology (T1) New Technology (T2) a Technological Breakthrough TimeIncumbents in a particular product generation are so enamoured by their success or so hampered by their bureaucracy that they fail to introduce the next generation of radically new products.
  • 14. New discontinuous technology introduction (S-curve)Often from company not selling current generationIntroduction performance typically underperformsincumbentIncumbents often underestimate viability of newdevelopmentsNew entrants experiment with versions of technologyMarket coalesces around a Dominant DesignNew technology reaches its own inflection pointPerformance capability overtakes incumbenttechnologyExisting technology becomes obsoleteCreative Destruction: Creates new leaders & newlosers
  • 15. Disruptive Technology OrDisruptive Innovation?
  • 16. harnessing
  • 17. New Knowledge and Technological ChangeRegulatory ChangeSocial Turmoil and Civic FailureChanging TastesThe Quest for Convenient SolutionsUnder the Radar!
  • 18. Crowd Accelerated Innovation Chris AndersonHow web videos allowed groups all around the globe to share ideas in ways that spurred creativity Increasing in power as more and more people go online and as more of the web is dominated by video contentThe fields of dance and extreme sports have seen web videos act as a crucial means of evaluating and inspiring communities of performers
  • 19. DemographicsCultural EvolutionHabits &PreferencesGlobalization
  • 20. The InternetConsumerization of TechnologyPower of CollaborationChanging World
  • 21. at work
  • 22. driving Prakash Bagri @prbagri