EUROPA 2020 | Comunicação do Professor Iain Begg

CHALLENGES FOR THE EU: EUROPE 2020 AS AN ANSWER Iain Begg European Institute, London School of Economics

SOME “GRAND CHALLENGES”Demographic change: ageing EuropeFuture „waves‟ of globalisationNew economy: knowledge, servicesClimate change: the low carbon imperativeEnergy security in a volatile worldSocietal transformations…and managing the exit from the crisis

INFLUENCES ON WELL-BEING EMU, structural and labour market change and other macroeconomic trends Collective goods Societal changes of different sortsthat alter individual produced by trajectories and different levels support networks of the state

ECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONSRelative ageing of the population– Labour supply: the vexed issue of immigration– Sustainability of pensions The funding legacy left to the next generation(s)– Care, health, „grey‟ consumersThe necessary shift to a low-carbon economy– Business opportunities; social risks A notion of „carbon justice‟ as well as socialSpecialisations and supply-chains– Fiscal sustainability of social model(s)

INTENSIFYING COMPETITIONBRICS and next tier of global competitorsThe imperative of skills enhancement – Looking beyond education ratios Life-long learning in practice Increased job turnoverGlobal division of functions – Research activity – Basic production – High value-addedEurope in global science – the ERA

SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONSInclusive growth: a distinctive EU approach– Partly about the employment rate– But also wider sense of social inclusionSometimes equated with cohesion policy– May, though, be too narrow a conceptual basisImperative of maintaining employment Notably to avoid erosion of human capitalToo few references to social partners Mainly in connection with two flagship initiatives

LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITYEducation – boosting human capitalInfrastructure investment– To bolster industrial productivity– But could also cover energy productivityThe productive role of social protection– Labour transitions: preserving human capitalViable pensions systemsStrategic answer:– Target quality of growth, not just its rate

EUROPE 2020 SCENARIOS DOUBLEDIVIDEND Immediate focus on new sectors: green economy; ageing relatedBUSINESS Continued stressAS USUAL on innovation Search for new economy growthENSURING Emphasis on jobRECOVERY preservation 2011 2020

AWKWARD QUESTIONSEurope 2020‟s integrated agenda– Can it work?– Has to reconcile exit from crisis & long-term– The „smart, sustainable, inclusive‟ formula Deals with past fragmentation But risks embracing just too much– Is it the „everything and nothing‟ syndrome?Does it need incentives…and/or sanctions?Are links to SGP well thought-out?

WATCHWORDS FOR NEXT YEARS DELIVERY AND COMPLIANCE •Engaging national actors •Curbing attractions of free-riding •Raising visible costs of failure •Optimising conditionality KEYNESIAN >> TARGETED SPENDING •Quality of public spending •Incentives for welfare reform •Doing more with less public money JOB PROTECTION >> CREATION •Connections to macro performance •Focus on training & transitions •Social and spatial balance

CONCLUDING REMARKSA genuine debate should take place– For example on role of EU budget Is serving „Europe 2020‟ the only option? Select just some grand challenges, perhaps– Expectations of key policies – notably cohesionNational engagement vital– Lessons from Lisbon strategy must be learnedNew realism about costs of non-compliance Doubts nevertheless persist about delivery

If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change [tutto deve cambiare perché tutto resti uguale] Giuseppe de Lampedusa, “il Gattopardo”

EUROPA 2020 | Comunicação do Professor Iain Begg

by pedroribeiro1973 on Mar 09, 2011

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EUROPA 2020 | Comunicação do Professor Iain Begg — Presentation Transcript