Areas of collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
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    Areas of collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies Areas of collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies Presentation Transcript

    • Areas of collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies PEDRO L. MARÍN Rome, March 3, 2011
    • 1. International Energy Trends 2. Current Energy Challenges Content 3. Opportunities 4. Collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
    • Over the last years the energy sector has suffered deep changes Volatility and price growth Emerging economies high growth rates Technological progress Climate change 1. International energy trends
            • Effects : reduction of energy dependency and search for alternative energy sources.
              • Boost in demand.
              • Supply rigidities (size of investments, geopolitical instability, geological difficulties).
              • Speculative component in financial markets.
      • International energy trends
      • Volatility and price growth
            • Volatility in the short term and price growth in the mid and long term due to:
            • Large economic growth at the emerging countries. Last 20 years: OECD growth rate, 2.2%; emerging countries growth rate, 4.7%.
            • In energy, this trend is even stronger:
              • In 1990, energy consumption in emerging countries was 26% of world consumption. In 2009, 45%.
              • In 1995, consumption in USA was more than twice the consumption in China. Now China is the main consumer worldwide.
              • Since 1995, 90% of world energy consumption corresponds to emerging economies.
            • Effects : shift in trade flows, market adjustment rigidities, environmental impact.
      • International energy trends
      • Emerging economies high growth rates
      Top-10 energy consumers Primary energy consumption growth share
            • Energy consumption is responsible for 65% of GHG emissions (75% in 1990). Accordingly it is key to achieve the stabilization scenarios included at the IPCC.
            • Effects : investment in a cleaner energy model and gradual internalization of environmental impact.
            • a
      • International energy trends
      • Climate change
      GHG emissions distribution among sectors Source: STERN report 2006 Land use Agriculture Land use Wastage Electricity generation Industry Transport Buildings Other energy uses
            • This has led to a technological revolution, providing incentives to invest in new and alternative technologies.
              • LNG plants and CCGTs to generate electricity.
              • Electrification process. Since1990, world electricity consumption has raised from 22% to 27% of final energy consumption. The EU 2050 Roadmap aims at reaching 60%, which is possible only with electrical vehicles.
              • Development of renewable energies. 160 GW of wind power and 23 GW of solar in 2009. Large cost reduction: current prices were thought to be possible only in 2015.
              • Reinforcement of energy saving and efficiency policies.
      • International energy trends
      • Technological progress
    • 1. International Energy Trends 2. Current Energy Challenges Content 3. Opportunities 4. Collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
    • Competitiveness Energy is the main input for many industries, even more important than labour. Environmental targets Kyoto Protocol agreement on the reduction of collective greenhouse gas emissions and further agreements on technology sharing reached at Cancun COP-16. Security of supply Energy dependency is above 50% for most countries. This implies: continuous transfer of wealth to other economies, risk of supply shortages and imported volatility of domestic prices through international fuel prices and exchange rate volatility. 2. Current energy challenges
    • 1. International Energy Trends 2. Current Energy Challenges Content 3. Opportunities 4. Collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
    • 3. Opportunities Renewable energy: Wind Geothermal Solar Biomass Sea power Infrastructures: Grids Interconnections Storage Smart grids Saving and energy eff.: Lighting Production tech. ICT – Demand management Materials Capital equipment
    • Interconnections facilitate competition among different markets 3. Opportunities Infrastructures Electricity interconnections facilitate the management of renewable energy in the system, enhancing their deployment Smart grids will facilitate a more efficient management of demand and supply, the development of electric mobility and a larger integration of renewable energies Source: BP statistical review of world energy (June 2010) Regasification plants, storage capacity and gas interconnections provide a greater supply flexibility
    • 3. Opportunities Saving and energy efficiency: competitivity Energy intensity by geographical regions Source: U.S. Energy Administration North America Central and South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia & Oceania World Since the eighties, energy intensity has fallen by a 20% in the World. In Europe, where prices are higher due to strong energy dependency and fiscal policies, it has fallen by almost a 50% in the same period.
    • Investment in energy efficiency produces benefits since the beginning. 3. Opportunities Saving and energy efficiency: competitivity Emissions abatement costs by sector Electricity sector Energy efficiency Fuel switching and CCS Alternative transport fuels Reduction of CO2 emissions in 2050 (Gt CO2/year) Marginal cost (USD/tCO2) Source Perspectives on energy technologies 2008. IEA. Costes de abatimiento por sectores
    • From geographically concentrated production and global trade flows to… … local production and regional interconexions. 3. Opportunities Renewable energies: security of supply
    • Renewable energy sources are emissions-free. 3. Opportunities Renewable energies: environment
    • Strong cost reductions have been seen recently and are expected for the next years… CSP FV roof Offshore wind Onshore wind FV ground Year starting operations Source: BCG … and, even now, renewable energies are competitive in isolated systems 3. Opportunities Renewable energies: competitiveness Cost evolution (c€ 2010 /KWh)
    • 3 . Opportunities Common features
      • Large up-front investments
      • Knowledge intensive
      • Continuous technological change
      CSP FV roof Offshore wind Onshore wind FV ground Year starting operations Source: BCG Cost evolution (c€ 2010 /KWh)
    • 1. International Energy Trends 2. Current Energy Challenges Content 3. Opportunities 4. Collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
    • 4. Collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies
      • Technology transfer
      • Share and improve information about current situation and prospective analyses
      • Capacity building on regulatory design, technical skills and economic viability
      • Financial schemes
    • Areas of collaboration between International Organizations and National Agencies PEDRO L. MARÍN Rome, March 3, 2011