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Thesis Presentation

Thesis Presentation



Final Master Thesis Presentation. Completion of the Master of Science course Engineering and Policy Analysis

Final Master Thesis Presentation. Completion of the Master of Science course Engineering and Policy Analysis



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  • Ladies and gentlements, welcome to my final presentation. This presentation is the final part of my master thesis project.

Thesis Presentation Thesis Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • Availability and Producibility of OPEC Oil Peter de Groot January 29, 2009
  • Oil Reserves Oil Price
  • Oil Reserves
  • Contents
    • Problem description and relevance
    • Research approach
    • Institutional and (geo)political influences
    • Country studies
    • Conclusion
  • Reserve Estimations: The Problem
    • Estimations are no indication for availability and production
    • Other factors determine the available and producible amount of oil in future
    • Insight is necessary to formulate energy policies
  • Oil
    • Oil is a fossil fuel, it comes from underneath the ground (non renewable)
    • Current amount of reserves is estimated at 1200 billion barrels, OPEC holds 70%
    source: BP, 2008
  • OPEC
    • Created in 1960 to stop the lowering of prices (revenues) and gain ownership over their oil resources
    • Currently 13 members, Indonesia will suspend its membership this month
    Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries source: OPEC, 2008
  • Approach: Oil Value Chain The oil value chain visualizes the oil industry elements source: Ellis Jones, 1998
  • Approach: Oil value chain The upstream part is exploration and production. These elements directly influence the amount of reserves in place. source: Ellis Jones, 1998
  • Level of Investment Oil will only flow through the chain when investments are made.
  • Oil Governance
    • Private
    • versus public
    • Oil Policy
    • Framework
  • Conceptual Model
  • Country case studies: studying the OPEC countries in depth.
  • Final Model
  • Country analysis
  • Conclusions
    • Short term:
    • Willingness of OPEC countries to produce within their capabilities
    • Willingness is politically determined
  • Conclusions
    • Long term (6 years or longer):
    • Depends on the level of investment in the oil chain; the capability of domestic finance or attracting foreign capital (or a combination) by the government.
  • Conclusions
    • Long term capability domestic finance:
    • Institutional economic performance
    • Willingness is politically determined
    Shaybay oil field Saudi Arabia
  • Conclusions
    • Long term, attractiveness foreign participation:
    • Stability of the oil policy framework
    • Internal stability
    • External relations (geopolitics)
    Shaybay oil field Saudi Arabia
  • Time for reflection
    • Initial goal: adjust the proven reserves
    • Information about OPEC countries is limited available
    • Changes in demand, supply and price occurs very fast, changes within the institutional landscape takes much longer.
  • Questions
  • Growth World Energy Demand
  • Production, consumption and OPEC part
  • Case Template
  • Oil Price History
  • Available Oil
  • Production Versus Reserves
  • Production, consumption and OPEC part