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Thesis Presentation
 

Thesis Presentation

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Final Master Thesis Presentation. Completion of the Master of Science course Engineering and Policy Analysis

Final Master Thesis Presentation. Completion of the Master of Science course Engineering and Policy Analysis

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  • Ladies and gentlements, welcome to my final presentation. This presentation is the final part of my master thesis project.

Thesis Presentation Thesis Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • Availability and Producibility of OPEC Oil Peter de Groot January 29, 2009
  • Oil Reserves Oil Price
  • Oil Reserves
  • Contents
    • Problem description and relevance
    • Research approach
    • Institutional and (geo)political influences
    • Country studies
    • Conclusion
  • Reserve Estimations: The Problem
    • Estimations are no indication for availability and production
    • Other factors determine the available and producible amount of oil in future
    • Insight is necessary to formulate energy policies
  • Oil
    • Oil is a fossil fuel, it comes from underneath the ground (non renewable)
    • Current amount of reserves is estimated at 1200 billion barrels, OPEC holds 70%
    source: BP, 2008
  • OPEC
    • Created in 1960 to stop the lowering of prices (revenues) and gain ownership over their oil resources
    • Currently 13 members, Indonesia will suspend its membership this month
    Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries source: OPEC, 2008
  • Approach: Oil Value Chain The oil value chain visualizes the oil industry elements source: Ellis Jones, 1998
  • Approach: Oil value chain The upstream part is exploration and production. These elements directly influence the amount of reserves in place. source: Ellis Jones, 1998
  • Level of Investment Oil will only flow through the chain when investments are made.
  • Oil Governance
    • Private
    • versus public
    • Oil Policy
    • Framework
  • Conceptual Model
  • Country case studies: studying the OPEC countries in depth.
  • Final Model
  • Country analysis
  • Conclusions
    • Short term:
    • Willingness of OPEC countries to produce within their capabilities
    • Willingness is politically determined
  • Conclusions
    • Long term (6 years or longer):
    • Depends on the level of investment in the oil chain; the capability of domestic finance or attracting foreign capital (or a combination) by the government.
  • Conclusions
    • Long term capability domestic finance:
    • Institutional economic performance
    • Willingness is politically determined
    Shaybay oil field Saudi Arabia
  • Conclusions
    • Long term, attractiveness foreign participation:
    • Stability of the oil policy framework
    • Internal stability
    • External relations (geopolitics)
    Shaybay oil field Saudi Arabia
  • Time for reflection
    • Initial goal: adjust the proven reserves
    • Information about OPEC countries is limited available
    • Changes in demand, supply and price occurs very fast, changes within the institutional landscape takes much longer.
  • Questions
  • Growth World Energy Demand
  • Production, consumption and OPEC part
  • Case Template
  • Oil Price History
  • Available Oil
  • Production Versus Reserves
  • Production, consumption and OPEC part
  •