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  • 1. School Bell Signals Polls and Perspectives on K-12 Education & Schooling Midwest Association for Public Opinion Research (MAPOR) 38th Annual Conference November 23, 2013 Paul DiPerna paul@edchoice.org
  • 2. “A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?”
  • 3. Profile of Friedman/Braun Research Surveys Data Collection & Processing: Braun Research, Inc. (BRI) Interview Period: approx. 7 to 10 days Interview Method: Live Telephone | approx. 70% landline and 30% cell phone Sample Frame: National / General Population = Adults (age 18+) State = Registered Voters Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD Population Samples: National / General Population = approx. 1,000 State = approx. 600 Margins of Error: National / General Population = 3.1 percentage points State = 4.0 percentage points (MOE higher for demographic groups) Response Rates: Landline (LL) = approx. 10% to 15% Cell Phone = approx. 10% to 15% Weighting? Yes (Age, Race, Ethnicity, Gender, Region, Landline/Cell) Oversampling? National = Yes State = No
  • 4. Considering the following perspectives in the Friedman/Braun Research surveys… ~ National (18+) ~ Regions (18+) ~ States (RV) ~ Demographics: National, States
  • 5. Observing the following metrics… ~ Levels ~ Margins (i.e. differences, gaps) ~ Intensities ~ Min vs. Max (strong positive – strong negative)
  • 6. Limitations, Future Research • Larger state samples to improve demographic interpretations • Cell phone proportion of overall sample • Caveat: timing of state polls • Caveat: comparing demographics across states • Direct comparisons of issues and policies • Test ordering of issue/policy questions • Test wording of issue/policy questions
  • 7. Survey Topics • • • • • • Priority issue; Attention to K-12 education Direction of K-12 education Rating the state’s public school system K-12 education spending/funding Grade local schools (public, charter, private) Preferred school type • • • • Charter schools School vouchers Education savings accounts (ESAs) Tax-credit scholarships
  • 8. Focus • Direction of K-12 education (right direction vs. wrong track) • Rating the state’s public school system (excellent, good, fair, poor) • Indicated school preferences (by school type) • Views on school vouchers (favor vs. oppose)
  • 9. What do respondents say about the state of K-12 education in the U.S. / in their own state?
  • 10. Direction of K-12 Education (2013) Population Hispanic 18 to 34 Urban Northeast Midwest School Parent Republican 35 to 54 Under $40,000 Small Town Democrat NATIONAL Non-Schooler Suburban $40,000 to $79,999 $80,000 & Over White West Asian South Black Independent 55 & Over Rural Right Direction Wrong Track Margin % % 38 49 -11 33 45 -12 34 56 -22 32 59 -27 32 60 -28 29 60 -31 30 62 -32 29 62 -33 28 61 -33 27 60 -33 28 64 -36 26 62 -36 25 62 -37 24 62 -38 25 64 -39 25 64 -39 25 64 -39 24 63 -39 14 54 -40 21 64 -43 24 68 -44 20 67 -47 20 72 -52 18 75 -57 N= 73 134 174 199 226 509 244 390 273 261 273 1,000 488 355 282 299 717 199 20 376 110 288 425 176
  • 11. Rating the State's Public School System Population ND-13 IA-13 KS-10 MT-12 WA-12 NJ-10 ME-13 AK-11 AR-10 TN-12 ID-11 NC-12 NY-10 TX-13 IN-10 MS-10 AL-10 RI-13 LA-12 NM-11 Good/Excellent % 77 65 63 60 52 52 50 48 48 47 46 45 43 42 42 42 40 35 34 32 Fair/Poor % 20 34 35 28 44 45 45 47 48 49 51 52 56 54 55 57 58 60 63 65 Margin Intensity N= 57 31 28 32 8 7 5 1 0 -2 -5 -7 -13 -12 -13 -15 -18 -25 -29 -33 18 8 4 9 -3 -2 -1 -3 -6 -6 -8 -6 -14 -6 -11 -12 -16 -14 -20 -19 605 605 602 604 602 602 604 1,006 603 606 1,202 601 603 613 1,017 603 601 602 802 808
  • 12. “If it were your decision and you could select any type of school, what type of school would you select in order to obtain the best education for your child?”
  • 13. What do respondents say about school vouchers?
  • 14. School Vouchers, Favor vs. Oppose (2013) Population School Parent Under $40,000 Small Town Black 18 to 34 Independent South Midwest 35 to 54 $40,000 to $79,999 Republican White Urban NATIONAL Northeast Rural Non-Schooler $80,000 & Over Suburban 55 & Over Asian Hispanic Democrat West Favor % 70 67 67 65 64 66 65 66 65 63 63 61 60 60 58 59 56 57 56 55 57 51 52 50 Oppose % 24 23 23 24 24 28 28 31 30 29 32 32 31 32 31 33 35 39 38 37 41 36 38 39 Margin Intensity N= 46 44 44 41 40 38 37 35 35 34 31 29 29 28 27 26 21 18 18 18 16 15 14 11 28 19 16 25 6 9 12 18 20 19 12 9 16 9 -1 10 1 -2 0 4 1 -1 7 5 509 273 261 110 134 288 376 226 390 282 244 717 174 1,000 199 176 488 299 355 425 20 73 273 199
  • 15. State Voters on School Vouchers Population MS-10 NJ-10 IN-10 NY-10 TX-13 AK-11 LA-12 AL-10 NM-11 AR-10 TN-12 NC-12 ND-13 RI-13 KS-10 ID-11 WA-12 ME-13 IA-13 MT-12 Favor % 74 69 66 66 66 64 63 62 62 60 59 57 58 56 57 56 55 55 54 52 Oppose % 20 26 24 26 27 29 29 28 30 30 31 32 34 33 36 35 35 38 38 39 Margin Intensity N= 54 43 42 40 39 35 34 34 32 30 28 25 24 23 21 21 20 17 16 13 33 20 24 26 15 16 21 16 15 21 11 14 8 9 14 8 4 3 5 4 603 602 1,017 603 613 1,006 802 601 808 603 606 601 605 602 602 1,202 602 604 605 604
  • 16. Conclusions • Americans have been very negative wrt direction of K-12 education in the country, and in most of their own states • Broad disconnect between respondents’ survey preferences and actual school enrollments. • Without definition or context, a plurality of Americans favor school vouchers With a definition, we see majority support Variation in terms of margins and intensities • •
  • 17. Thank You Questions, Comments, or Suggestions? Paul DiPerna paul@edchoice.org
  • 18. Additional context…
  • 19. About the Friedman Foundation • Established in 1996 by Milton and Rose Friedman • 501(c)(3) / Non-partisan / Non-profit • Based in Indianapolis, IN, we work in more than 20 states for any given year. “Working with local and state partners, we are committed to research, education, and outreach on the vital issues and implications related to choice and competition in K-12 education.”
  • 20. Why does Friedman conduct surveys? • Assessment (national, states) • Comparison (states, demographics) • Document • Awareness & Conversation (national, states, demographics) (states)
  • 21. Appendix 1
  • 22. Preferred School Type (2013) Population NATIONAL School Parent Non-Schooler Northeast South Midwest West Urban Suburban Small Town Rural Democrat Republican Independent 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 & Over Under $40,000 $40,000 to $79,999 $80,000 & Over Hispanic Asian Black White Public School % 34 31 35 38 29 31 41 34 27 39 38 41 25 31 31 27 40 35 35 31 34 42 35 33 Private School Charter School Home School % % % 45 10 7 48 7 8 43 11 7 41 12 4 47 8 11 52 10 6 38 12 5 50 8 6 46 12 9 41 8 8 42 10 7 45 9 3 49 10 14 47 10 8 49 9 8 48 10 8 40 10 6 47 8 7 43 14 6 48 9 8 34 20 11 40 8 3 44 14 3 48 8 7 N= 1,000 509 488 199 376 226 199 174 355 261 176 273 244 288 134 390 425 273 282 299 73 20 110 717
  • 23. Brief Findings • • Americans are very negative wrt direction of K-12 education in the country, by more than 2-to-1 Groups most likely to be negative: South, African Americans, Independents, 55+, Rural • • ND stands out as positive; also KS, MT, AK, AR NC, ID, WA, IN, ME – least likely “right direction” • • ND, IA, KS, MT – highest ratings NM, LA, RI, AL – lowest ratings • • ND – greatest positive intensity LA, NM, AL, RI, NY – greatest negative intensity
  • 24. What do respondents say about spending in K-12 education?
  • 25. Estimates of K-12 Education Spending Population ID-11 TN-12 WA-12 NM-11 LA-12 IA-13 ND-13 MT-12 TX-13 RI-13 NC-12 AK-11 ME-13 NJ-10 KS-10 IN-10 MS-10 AR-10 NY-10 AL-10 Per Student Spending $7,118 $7,992 $9,688 $9,648 $10,625 $9,807 $10,519 $10,189 $8,788 $13,815 $8,518 $15,353 $12,452 $17,076 $10,201 $9,254 $8,064 $8,854 $17,746 $9,042 % Saying Correct Spending Range 26 25 19 13 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 Under DK N= 32 31 21 31 29 47 45 20 49 52 26 24 56 30 40 39 47 41 38 51 28 28 28 23 26 34 38 44 27 29 45 27 31 8 12 18 14 16 13 15 1,202 606 602 808 802 605 605 604 613 602 601 1,006 604 602 602 1,017 603 603 603 601
  • 26. Learning about specific K-12 spending information influences public opinion.
  • 27. Split Sample Experiment on School Funding Views Population WA-12 NM-11 RI-13 NC-12 AK-11 TN-12 LA-12 IA-13 TX-13 ID-11 ND-13 MT-12 ME-13 (A) No Info (B) Given Info % Funding Too Low % Funding Too Low 56 32 62 41 46 26 66 50 40 26 55 41 57 45 45 34 52 41 57 47 41 33 43 37 52 50 Change Points -24 -21 -20 -16 -14 -14 -12 -11 -11 -10 -8 -6 -2 Change % -43 -34 -43 -24 -35 -25 -21 -24 -21 -18 -20 -14 -4 N= 602 808 602 601 1,006 606 802 605 613 1,202 605 604 604
  • 28. Brief Findings • There is an extremely low-level of knowledge about how much is spent (per student) in public schools. • • National: 14% estimated correct range (DK = 22%) States: Roughly 1 in 10 estimated correctly (ID, TN = about 1 in 4 correct; DK = 23% to 45%) • Experiment shows that inserting a per-student spending statistic changes public opinion. National: 65% → 44% change = -21 points “too low” 10 out of 13 States decreased by at least 10 points
  • 29. Appendix 2
  • 30. Q3. In the United States, do you feel things in K-12 education are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have generally gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Diff AMERICAN ADULTS 26 62 - 36 1,000 School Mom Non-Schooler 32 25 61 62 - 29 - 37 405 488 REGION Northeast South Midwest West 32 21 32 24 59 64 60 63 - 27 - 43 - 28 - 39 199 376 226 199 COMMUNITY Urban Suburban Small Town Rural 34 24 27 18 56 62 60 75 - 22 - 38 - 33 - 57 174 355 261 176 PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 28 30 20 64 62 67 - 36 - 32 - 47 273 244 288 AGE GROUP 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 & Over 33 29 20 45 62 72 - 12 - 33 - 52 134 390 425 HOUSEHOLD INCOME Under $40,000 $40,000 to $79,999 $80,000 & Over 28 25 25 61 64 64 - 33 - 39 - 39 273 282 299 RACE/ETHNICITY Hispanic Asian Black White 38 14 24 25 49 54 68 64 - 11 - 40 - 44 - 39 73 20 110 717 N=
  • 31. Direction of K-12 Education Population ND-13 KS-10 MT-12 AK-11 AR-10 NJ-10 IA-13 MS-10 TN-12 LA-12 NY-10 AL-10 NM-11 ME-13 RI-13 IN-10 WA-12 TX-13 ID-11 NC-12 Right Direction % 66 49 49 46 46 39 40 41 36 34 36 35 34 31 32 31 31 33 31 29 Wrong Track % 19 38 38 39 41 39 46 52 50 50 53 53 52 50 52 52 52 55 57 55 Margin N= 47 11 11 7 5 0 -6 -11 -14 -16 -17 -18 -18 -19 -20 -21 -21 -22 -26 -26 605 602 604 1,006 603 602 605 603 606 802 603 601 808 604 602 1,017 602 613 1,202 601
  • 32. Brief Findings • • • Broad disconnect between private preferences and actual school enrollments. Given the choice, a plurality of Americans (45%) would select a private school for their child. 31% of current School Parents preferred a public school; nearly half (48%) chose a private school. • ND, MT, IA – largest public school proportions • RI, LA, NY, TX – largest private school proportions • ID stands out wrt charter schools
  • 33. Appendix 3
  • 34. Public Schools, Preference vs. Actual Population Preference % ND-13 IA-13 MT-12 NJ-10 MS-10 KS-10 LA-12 TN-12 AL-10 NC-12 WA-12 ID-11 IN-10 ME-13 AK-11 AR-10 NM-11 NY-10 RI-13 TX-13 60 49 50 40 43 40 31 40 38 34 40 38 38 36 39 37 37 29 29 34 Actual % Gap N= 94 93 95 86 91 91 82 92 91 87 93 92 92 90 94 92 92 85 85 93 34 44 45 46 48 51 51 52 53 53 53 54 54 54 55 55 55 56 56 59 601 1,006 603 1,202 1,017 605 602 802 604 603 604 602 808 603 601 605 602 606 613 602
  • 35. Private Schools, Preference vs. Actual Population Preference % ND-13 ID-11 MT-12 AR-10 NJ-10 AK-11 KS-10 WA-12 MS-10 AL-10 IA-13 NM-11 IN-10 NC-12 TN-12 ME-13 LA-12 NY-10 RI-13 TX-13 28 27 28 33 39 30 35 35 38 40 38 36 41 39 40 42 49 49 54 47 Actual % Gap N= 6 4 5 7 13 3 8 7 9 9 7 5 8 6 7 8 14 14 12 4 -22 -23 -23 -26 -26 -27 -27 -28 -29 -31 -31 -31 -33 -33 -33 -34 -35 -35 -42 -43 605 1,202 604 603 602 1,006 602 602 603 601 605 808 1,017 601 606 604 802 603 602 613
  • 36. Charter Schools, Preference vs. Actual Population Preference % IA-13 ND-13 TX-13 LA-12 RI-13 MS-10 AL-10 IN-10 TN-12 ME-13 MT-12 AK-11 AR-10 NJ-10 KS-10 NM-11 NC-12 NY-10 WA-12 ID-11 5 5 8 10 10 8 8 10 9 9 9 15 12 12 13 15 15 14 14 22 Actual % Gap N= 0 0 3 4 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -7 -8 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -12 -13 -14 -17 605 605 613 802 602 603 601 1,017 606 604 604 1,006 603 602 602 808 601 603 602 1,202
  • 37. Appendix 4
  • 38. Brief Findings • • • • • • • • • Without definition or context, 43% of Americans favor school vouchers, vs. 28% oppose (DK = 30%) Given a definition, support jumps to 60%, opposition jumps to 32% (DK = 8%) MOST likely to support: School Parents, < $40K, Small Town, African Americans, 18 to 34 LEAST likely to support: West, Democrats, 55+, Suburban, High Income, ≥ $80K MOST supportive states: MSi, NJ, INi, NYi, TX LEAST supportive states: MT, IA, ME, WA, ID Dem Range: 56 (MS) ↔ 22 (AK, ND) ↔ -28 (MT) GOP Range: 62 (NJ) ↔ 21 (TX), 20 (AR) ↔ 25 (ID) Ind Range: 65 (NY) ↔ 27 (WA) ↔ 10 (ND)
  • 39. National surveys to look for every year… February MetLife Survey/Harris May Friedman Foundation/Braun Research August AP/NORC Center Education Next-PEPG/KN PDK/Gallup
  • 40. National surveys asking school voucher questions
  • 41. Terry Moe (1995/2001) • • • • • Low awareness and information ( ~ 2:1) National, 60% vs. 32% = + 28 Parents, 68% vs. 24% = + 44 African Americans, 73% vs. 18% = + 55 Latinos, 71% vs. 18% = + 53 Public Agenda (1999) • National, 57% vs. 36% = + 21 Intensity = 29% vs. 23% = + 6 • Parents, 68% vs. 27% = + 41 Intensity = 40% vs. 17% = + 23
  • 42. PDK/Gallup (1970 to 2013) “Do you favor or oppose allowing students and parents to choose a private school to attend at public expense?” EdNext-PEPG/KN (2007 to 2013) “A proposal has been made that would use government funds to pay the tuition of low-income students who choose to attend private schools. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?”
  • 43. PDK/Gallup (1970 to 2013) Public Support for [Vouchers]
  • 44. EdNext-PEPG/KN (2007 to 2013) Public Support for Low-Income Vouchers
  • 45. Question wording varies from sponsor to sponsor…
  • 46. Moe’s recommendations for item construction (p. 200) • Vouchers would be available to parents generally, not just to existing private school parents • Vouchers would enable parents to choose among public, parochial, and private options in deciding where their children go to school • Vouchers would be financed by the government and thus paid for out of taxes
  • 47. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?
  • 48. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?
  • 49. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?
  • 50. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?
  • 51. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?
  • 52. A school voucher system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and nonreligious schools. If this policy were adopted, tax dollars currently allocated to a school district would be allocated to parents in the form of a “school voucher” to pay partial or full tuition for their child’s school. In general, do you favor or oppose a school voucher system?