Estimating demand for aflatoxin risk reducing strategies in kenya (2)

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Estimating demand for aflatoxin risk reducing strategies in kenya (2)

  1. 1. Estimating Demand for Aflatoxin Risk Reducing Strategies in Kenya Marites Tiongco, IFPRI on behalf of the teamInternational Food Policy Research Institute University of PittsburghInternational Center for the Improvement of Maize ACDI/VOCA/Kenya Maize Development Programand Wheat Kenya Agricultural Research InstituteInternational Crops Research Institute for the Semi- Institut d’Economie RuraleArid TropicsUniformed Services University of the Health Sciences
  2. 2.  Agricultural  Dietary (preharvest, postharvest)  Enterosorption (clays,  Conventional breeding chlorophyllin)  Transgenic breeding  Chemoprevention  Irrigation (Oltipraz, triterpenoids, isothiocyanates)  Biocontrol  Anti-inflammatory  “Good agronomic practices” agents (NSAIDS, green (sorting and segregation) tea polyphenols, allicin)  Improved drying, storage,  Clinical transportation  Hepa-B vaccine  Chemical control (fungicides)Source: Wu & Khlangwiset , 2010
  3. 3. Attitude towards aflatoxin contamination Individual and Household characteristics (age,Knowledge about education, gender,health effects of income, etc.) consuming Willingness to pay Demand to adopt aflatoxin control measures contaminated food Characteristics of risk mitigation Perceptions of techonologieshealth risks due to aflatoxincontamination
  4. 4.  Is WTP greater for technologies that are more cost effective in reducing risk aflatoxin contamination? Are farmer’s demand for risk reducing technologies influenced by their educational attainment, experience on high levels of aflatoxin, health cost, or by their income and wealth?
  5. 5.  Objective: To measure producers’ WTP for methods to reduce alfatoxins in their maize; and to demonstrate how our findings can be used to analyze policy interventions Data collection procedures Technologies that reduces risk of aflatoxin contamination  Improved seeds less prone to aflatoxin  Drying maize off the ground using tarpaulin (introduced)  Plastic silos (not yet used for storing grains)  Metal silos (introduced to few farmers)  Bio controls (introduced to few farmers)
  6. 6.  Aflatoxins are poisonous byproducts of fungi or moulds commonly found in the soil. These moulds also grow on the maize plant and later, when the grain has been stored, they continue to grow. These moulds particularly infest plants that are stressed from drought or pest attacks. The mould grows especially well in poor storage conditions, producing high levels of Aflatoxin.
  7. 7.  Severe aflatoxicosis (the illness caused by Aflatoxins) led to sickness in 317 people in Kenya in 2004, and resulted in 125 deaths from liver failure. Chronic, lower‐level exposures to aflatoxins can lead to liver cancer, particularly in people who constantly suffer from hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Aflatoxin exposure has also been linked to disorders of the immune system, stunted growth in children, and abortion in livestock.
  8. 8.  Eliminate losses of grain due to mold more grain of better quality to eat or sell; Prevent family from exposure to risk of aflatoxin poisoning
  9. 9.  Description of technology 2:The metal silo is an improved maize storagecontainer made of metal sheets by trainedlocal artisans. After the maize is put inside themetal silo, it is closed and sealed. No fresh aircan get inside. So after the oxygen is used up,storage insects like weevil and LGB die. Maizestored in metal silos is not attacked by pestsand is less infested by moulds. Aflatoxin levelswould therefore be reduced by 60% onaverage compared to the conventionalstorage in standard bags. A metal silo thatcan contain up to 2.5 bags of maize grain atone time and lasts more than 10 years.
  10. 10. Description of technology 3:Tarpaulins are often used for sundrying of maize on cobs or grain andeffectively avoid contamination ofmaize with dirt or other pollutants.They prevent maize from cominginto contact with soil, where thefungi that produce Aflatoxins comefrom. Using tarpaulin for sun dryingmay reduce Aflatoxin contaminationof maize cobs or grain by 50% onaverage compared to drying onthe ground.
  11. 11. Description of technology 5:Some fungi produce Aflatoxin, but othersdo not. Scientists have found that by usingbiocontrols we can increase the growth ofthe fungus that doesn’t produce poison inorder to prevent the poisonous fungusfrom growing. This kind of control –spreading “good” fungus to stop the “bad”fungus, is called biocontrol. It takes about4 hours to apply biocontrols to 2.5 acres ofland. They estimate that this can reduceAflatoxin contamination by 60% onaverage which will last for 2 years onaverage
  12. 12. Initial price Premium Price Discount Price 25% 50% 75% 100% -75% -50% 25% -10%Improved seed(Ksh/2kg) 240 300 360 420 480 60 120 180 215Metal silo (Ksh/2.5bags--90kg/bag) 6500 8000 9800 1100 1300 1600 3200 5000 5800Drying on tarpaulin(Ksh/4x4m for 8bags 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 500 1000 1500 1800Plastic silo(Ksh/2.5bags--90kg/bag) 2800 3500 4200 4900 5600 700 1400 2100 2500Biocontrol (Ksh/2.5acreof biocontrolapplication 1000 1300 1500 1800 2000 300 500 800 900
  13. 13. 100% 88% of respondents would adopt at 90% the estimated market price 80%Percent of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60 120 180 215 240 300 360 420 480 Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2kg) Decreasing demand as price increases
  14. 14. 100% 90% 80% Percent of Respondents 70% 60% 44% of respondents would adopt at the estimated market price 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1600 3200 5000 5800 6500 8000 9800 11000 13000 Discount or Premium Price ( per 2.5 bags--90kg/bag)Decreasing demand as price increases
  15. 15. 100% 90% 67% of respondents wouldPercent of Respondents 80% adopt at the estimated 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 500 1000 1500 1800 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/4x4m for 8-10 bags)Decreasing demand as price increases
  16. 16. 100% 90% 80% Percent of Respondents 70% 60% 50% of respondents would adopt at the estimated 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 700 1400 2100 2500 2800 3500 4200 4900 5600 Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/2.5bags at 90kg/bag)Decreasing demand as price increases
  17. 17. 100% 90% 80% 70% of respondents would adopt atPercent of Respondents the estimated market price 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 300 500 800 900 1000 1300 1500 1800 2000 Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol)Decreasing demand as price increases
  18. 18. Premium/ Initial price Mean price discountImproved seed (Ksh/2kg) 240 425 77Metal silo (Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag) 6500 5734 -12Drying on tarpaulin(Ksh/4x4m for 8bags 2000 2591 30Plastic silo (Ksh/2.5bags--90kg/bag) 2800 2800 0Biocontrol (Ksh/2.5acre ofbiocontrol 1000 1575 58
  19. 19. Aflatoxin-reduction Factors that significantly influence demandTechnology Land Assets, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5Improved seed years old, HH heads primary occupation is non-agric,(Ksh/2kg) and knowledge and perception of risk of aflatoxinMetal silo Land owned, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5(Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag)years old, and perception of risk of aflatoxin Land owned and assets, and perception of risk ofDrying on tarpaulin aflatoxin(Ksh/4x4m for 8bagsBiocontrol(Ksh/2.5acre ofbiocontrol) Land owned and assets
  20. 20.  Those producers who accepted the market price have higher willingness to pay for more cost-effective aflatoxin-reduction technologies Younger farmers demand more for aflatoxin-reduction technologies Liquidity constraint is binding in all technologies; those with more assets or income are more willing to pay for aflatoxin-reduction technologies Perception on risk of aflatoxin contamination affects demand for improved seeds, metal silos, and tarpaulins Knowledge on attributes associated with moulds affects demand of improved seeds

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