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This slidecast covers the seven stages in the life cycle of a technology, based on concepts and ideas from noted futurist and technologist Raymond Kurzweil.

This slidecast covers the seven stages in the life cycle of a technology, based on concepts and ideas from noted futurist and technologist Raymond Kurzweil.

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  • OCR , music synthesis , speech recognition , reading technology , virtual reality , financial investment , medical simulation , and cybernetic art . All of these technologies continue today as market leaders. Raymond Kurzweil Inventor: principle developer of OCR, scanning, and text-to-speech, for disabled Noted futurist / technologist Entrepreneur: developed numerous businesses Kurzweil, cont. 1999 National Medal of Technology recipient 2002 inductee, National Inventors Hall of Fame See MIT Bio video clip (broadband & QuickTime required)
  • Kurzweil’s 7 stages in the life cycle of a technology Precursor Invention Development Maturity False pretenders Obsolescence Antiquity
  • 7 stages, cont. Precursor - “ the prerequisites of a technology exist, and dreamers may contemplate these elements coming together.” Not the same as inventing, since there is nothing tangible yet. Invention - Bringing a new technology to life.
  • 7 stages, cont. Precursor - “ the prerequisites of a technology exist, and dreamers may contemplate these elements coming together.” Not the same as inventing, since there is nothing tangible yet. Invention - Bringing a new technology to life.
  • 7 stages, cont. Development - “ the invention is protected and supported by …guardians [patents / IP], in order for it to take root and flourish.” Maturity - “ The technology now has a life of its own and has become an independent and established part of the community. It may become so interwoven in the fabric of life that it appears to many observers that it will last forever.”
  • 7 stages, cont. Development - “ the invention is protected and supported by …guardians [patents / IP], in order for it to take root and flourish.” Maturity - “ The technology now has a life of its own and has become an independent and established part of the community. It may become so interwoven in the fabric of life that it appears to many observers that it will last forever.”
  • 7 stages, cont. False pretenders - “A n upstart threatens to eclipse the older technology. Its enthusiasts prematurely predict victory. While providing some distinct benefits, the newer technology is found on reflection to be missing some key element of functionality or quality. …usually a short-lived victory for the aging technology”
  • 7 stages, cont. Obsolescence - “ the technology lives out its senior years in gradual decline, its original purpose and functionality now subsumed by a more spry competitor.” Antiquity - An old or ancient technology no longer used; a relic
  • 7 stages, cont. Obsolescence - “ the technology lives out its senior years in gradual decline, its original purpose and functionality now subsumed by a more spry competitor.” Antiquity - An old or ancient technology no longer used; a relic
  • Invention / development / maturity stages, depending on specific car & type of hybrid technology used
  • Prius = maturity
  • Development or false pretender
  • Album & cassette tape - obsolescence, 8-track tape - antiquity
  • Antiquity (possibly maturity or obsolescence in some non-Western countries)
  • Obsolescence or antiquity
  • Development
  • Maturity / obsolescence
  • False pretender
  • False pretender
  • False pretender
  • False pretender
  • Hard to say which category book fall into, so let’s check out eBooks first…
  • Kurzweil, The Future of Libraries (1994) “ The printed book, like any other technology, will not live forever.” “ Knowledge is not free, nor should it be.” “ Why do we have difficulty comprehending the value of information when the physical content of a product shrinks to nothing?”
  • Electronic Books (eBooks) Growing industry Tons of content, both free / pay Established companies: eBooks, cont. Convenient Portable in terms of weight Portable in terms of space Text, images, links Choice of font size and type, text select, quote, text-to-speech Stunted industry Confusing mess of hardware / software Free content = old pay content = new eBooks, cont. Inconvenient Interoperability issues: content and platform Difficult to read Sharing is awkward or impossible, depending on format First sale impossible Backup copies?
  • Will virtual libraries / eBooks replace actual libraries / hardcopy books? Can we own “soft” property? Out of Kurzweil’s “7 Stages”, which one best describes the current state of eBooks?
  • Transcript

    • 1.
      • Volti, Unit 3 information, chapters 4-8
      • Connections between Science & Technology
      • Diffusion of Technology
      • Environmental Problems with Application of Technology
      • Medical & Genetic Technology
    • 2. Jun 10, 2011
    • 3.
      • 7
      • stages
    • 4.
      • Precursor
    • 5.
      • Invention
    • 6.
      • Development
    • 7.
      • Maturity
    • 8.
      • False Pretenders
    • 9.
      • Obsolescence
    • 10.
      • Antiquity
    • 11. Example: Hybrid Cars © 2003, Toyota
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 12. Jun 10, 2011 Example: Hybrid Cars © 2003, Toyota
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 13. Examples: Tango
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 14. Examples: Analog Audio
    • 15. Examples: the Abacus © 2001, FSU
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 16. Examples: the Mimeograph © 2001, Gowanda Pennysaver News
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 17. Examples: Smartphone
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 18. Examples: the Compact Disc © 2003, IEE Japan
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 19. Examples: DataPlay
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 20.  
    • 21.  
    • 22. Examples: DataPlay
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 23. Examples: the Book
      • Precursor
      • Invention
      • Development
      • Maturity
      • False pretenders
      • Obsolescence
      • Antiquity
    • 24. Jun 10, 2011
    • 25.  
    • 26.
      • Questions

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