The crisis 101 (US economy 2008) - put simple serie

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9 comments

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+ Konstantyn Spasokukotskiy 2 months ago
How it all started see animation: http://vimeo.com/3261363
+ Konstantyn Spasokukotskiy 11 months ago
@ contrarian2day

well, Randy, I like your effort. Don’t think I am a cynic, but you haven’t given exact answers. I’ve seen merely opinions with different scenarios. There is nither quantitative valuation nor probabilistic sustainability analysis. What if one of the links in your chain doesn’t occur? What if it occurs but not on an excessive scale?

For example, I don’t think the gold reserves in private hands have to be suggested. The role of gold has diminished in the global economy. Gold makes sense if at hand in direct possession. But the logistics costs for the gold exchange economy are high. Buying in-kind gold certificates is worse than having paper money at hand. Historically, everybody who bought gold at high during any crisis since 1900 has immediately lost 30% to 50% depending on period having it in the portfolio. The only case for buying gold now is if the global economy will fall apart. The respective probability is extremely low. IMHO it is better to invest in working actives whatever it is at a given time.

@ vozome and guest3a6eb0, fogpotion

Thanks for your encouragement and feedback.

Vozome, I am not risking to give the analysis you’ve mentioned out. In a sense, the situation -we are in- is unique. The tools that governments have used earlier are not exact fit any more. Every former crisis has been on the premise of real economy growth. The growth was based on an extensive use of the economic factors like labor, resources, capital. The governments had just to remove blocks from the road of the growth.

It is different today. The resources are noticeable in decline since 198x. The labor has become recently a factor, which is not suitable for a limitless intensification. See the frame idea in : http://www.slideshare.net/pbycall/civilization-101-the-economy-and-development-at-the-begining-of-the-21th-century-put-simple-serie-presentation/ IMHO, the bubbles we have had are indicators that entities try to keep up with the growth by exploiting the only available capital factor. But nobody knows yet how to do it right. It is not the real growth path any more. Governments have to find out -first- how to install blocks on the road of decline. Second, they may need to educate public. New ways for creation of sustainable values have to be established.
+ contrarian2day 11 months ago
Well done, but what now for the US Economy? Answers here: US Economic Outlook 2008-11+
+ guest3a6eb0 12 months ago
really nice and well done dude!
+ Jérôme Cukier 12 months ago
I liked it. The show is well-structured. You attempt to explain the crisis in terms that I think anybody can understand. You also provide an opinion about what needs to be done.
What I feel is missing would be explanations about the various strategies the governments have used to get us out of here: massive bailouts, coordinated reduction of interest rates... what worked, what didn’t and why.
+ fogpotion 2 years ago
Hey - nice job

Definately a simple, clear and accurate picture. Thankfully it is without noticable political slant.
+ Konstantyn Spasokukotskiy 2 years ago
@AmitRanjan

Thanks for questioning. The preso here is certainly not for a deep theory and chewing of multiple issues occurring regards the crisis. If you want to know more, than asking me is a good first step. I’ll be glad to discuss.

A detailed insight into the subject of slide 16 you can find in the podcast:
http://knowledge.insead.edu/USEconomyBailout080911.cfm?vid=91

@Joe A

IMHO those who act and know what to do (what is happening) will win. Those who sit out at the sideline and wait will loose. This is the time to manage your portfolio proactive. Having one diversified is not enough. Pension accounts will loose. Capital intensive businesses will loose. Savings accounts, deposits, etc. will loose. In order to retain the most of one’s assets, one has to change the form of wealth accumulation as the crisis progresses. And knowledge is king.

Naturally the surviving banks will run better than all other players because of their expertise and because they are know in advance what will happen. Think about it the way: the entire economy is their business and they are those, who are in possession of insight information & knowledge. They are the managers, who do insider trades.

Though, I write about banks as institutions. Individuals in lower ranks will seriously suffer. The banking industry looses the most as market for derivatives falls. They loose jobs. The financial impact will be naturally shifted to the less sophisticated players. It is already in progression. Taxpayers have fun!

You are right! Growing to the same wealth level means for the USA finding out a product which will substitute the now falling export of 'insurance'.
+ Joe Anandarajah 2 years ago
Good overview...I agree it will never be the same. Curious to know who will benefit who will not. The US will have to export its way out to grow again. Right?
+ Amit Ranjan 2 years ago
very well crafted preso... thanks for sharing this.

Though my knowledge of economics is only slightly better than my knowledge of Hebrew, I can’t help asking what slide 16 would achieve 'split consumer & investmnet banking' ... is it not split already... isn’t that what wall street and main street is about ?

Notes on slide 1

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The crisis 101 (US economy 2008) - put simple serie - Presentation Transcript

06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy THE CRISIS 101 what it brings & what to do put simple photos: flickr.com by Konstantyn
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
wealth time 1-1.5 Y several months several months crisis impact on individual players
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
Look here… … and here
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy
06/05/09 Starting up - Spasokukotskiy