Looking ahead to 2012
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  • 1. Looking  ahead  to  2012   ICT  Research  Network  
  • 2. Looking  ahead  •  Europe  -­‐  economy,  ci@zens,  policies  •  Business  -­‐  surviving  defla@on,  embracing   mobility,  crea@ng  intelligence  •  Technology  mandate  -­‐  service  orienta@on,   footprint  expansion,  sourcing  outcomes  •  Industrial  revolu@on  -­‐  local  strength,   newcomers  from  adjacencies,  lawyers  invade  •  Public  sector  challenges  grow  30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   2  
  • 3. Contributors  The  following  independent  analysts  and  firms  have  contributed  to  this  document:    •  Pim  Bilderbeek,  The  METISfiles,  Amsterdam.  e:pim@theme@sfiles.nl  •  Jaime  Garcia  Cantero,  Madrid.  e:jaimegarciacantero@gmail.com  •  Claus  Egge,  clausegge.com,  London.  e:clausegge@clausegge.com  •  Mar@n  Hingley,  ITCandor,  London.  e:mhingley@itcandor.com  •  Simona  Macellari,  The  Innova@on  Group,  Milan.   simona.macellari@theinnova@ongroup.it  •  Roberto  Masiero,  The  Innova@on  Group,  Milan.   roberto.masiero@theinnova@ongroup.it  •  Puni  Rajah,  The  Governance  Board,  London.  puni@thegovernanceboard.org  •  Peter  Perregaard,  Copenhagen.  peter.perregaard@gmail.com  •  Carsten  Schmidt,  HENRY  Corpora@on,  Copenhagen.  cs@henrycorpora@on.com  •  Ezio  Viola,  The  Innova@on  Group,  Milan.  ezio.viola@theinnova@ongroup.it    30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   3  
  • 4. The  Euro  Crunch  bites  ICT  sales  in  EMEA  •  Our  industry  tends  in  general  to  grow  faster  than  GDP,  due  to   automa@on  and  digi@sa@on:     –  however  ITC  sales  can  fall  even  faster  than  GDP  in  @mes  of  recession.   We  saw  falls  in  both  2001-­‐3  and  2008-­‐9  downturns  and  you  should   expect  the  same  in  2012.     –  Economic  news  has  been  dire  in  2011  as  countries  struggle  with   sovereign  debt,    especially  in  southern  ones  using  the  Euro   –  On  the  posi@ve  side  there  are  signs  of  modernisa@on  in  many  African   states,  with  vendors  building  new  offices  in  the  hope  of  winning  early   business.     –  We  will  also  see  new  business  from  disrupted  countries  stabilising  and   becoming  more  democra@c.     –  Business  spending  is  likely  to  be  less  affected  than  in  2008,  largely   because  there  can  be  few  surprises  likely  to  result  in  a  sudden  loss  of   confidence.     –  Consumer  spending,  on  the  other  hand,  will  not  be  countervailing  as  it   was  in  2008  –  the  reduc@on  in  household  budgets  are  too  palpable.  By:  Mar(n  Hingley  30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   4  
  • 5. Causes,  effects  and  vicious  cycles   Austerity   Defla@on  Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   measures  •  Iden@fy  and  focus  on  fast   growing  ICT  market   segments,  ver@cal  markets   and  new  services  models   (incredibly  enough,  some  of   the  largest  ICT  Vendors  do   NOT  have  any  focused   mobile  strategy  yet!)     Lagging   technology   Disinvestment   literacy  By:  Roberto  Masiero   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   5  
  • 6. Demographic  dividend   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   •  tackle  this  flourishing  but   fragmented  market  by  addressing   Delayed   this  issue  both  in  terms  of  offering  re@rement   and  delivery  model;   •  Focus  on  economic  sustainability   of  projects:  sound  business   Greater  reliance  on   planning,  public  and  private   technology   partnerships  as  well  as  modular   approaches  and  sound  economic   models  will  make  the  difference   between  a  promising  idea  and  a  Healthcare  innova@on   feasible  project   •  Carefully  analyse  governance   models  to  ensure  compa@bility   with  processes  and  organiza@ons  By:  Simona  Macellari   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network  
  • 7. Embracing  defla@on   Technology   con@nues  to  create   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   defla@onary   •  Be  smart  to  understand   pressures   business  issues  and  benefits   of  their  client  to  iden@fy   their  key  core    capabili@es   •  Be  smart  in  helping  their   clients  to  adopt    a  cloud   strategy  and  move  to  a     Businesses  and   cloud  based  delivery    model   governments  find   •  Be  clever  in  providing  skills   smarter  ways  to   achieve  results   for  the  innova@ve     with  fewer   enterprise  use  of  consumer   tradi@onal   IT   resources  By:  Ezio  Viola  30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   7  
  • 8. Enterprise  customers  sehle  into  the   post  PC  era   Consumeriza,on   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   •  In  2011  by  first  ,me  in  history  people   •  Redefine  their  strategy   accessing  the  Internet  from  a  “non  PC”   for  a  new  world  where   device  (tablets,  smartphones,  TV,  etc)   overpassed  those  accessing  from  PCs     PC  is  not  the  main   interface  for  accessing   informa@on   Transparency   •  Learn  from  consumers   •  Access  paGerns  render  tradi,onal   market  to  create   organisa,onal  structures  and  business   excellent  user   processes  redundant   experiences  priori@zing   design  and  usability   •  Invest  in  innova@on  to   New  budget  sources   address  new   •  In  2012  we´ll  con,nue  seeing  strong  growth   environment   in  mobile  markets  like  apps,  mobile  media,   adver,sement  or  gaming   opportuni@es  By:  Jaime  Garcia  Cantero  30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   8  
  • 9. Organisa@onal  intelligence  is  the  new   holy  grail   Business  as  Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   mobile  •  Re-­‐think  their  business  in   terms  of  mobile  services    •  Take  advantage  of   informa@on    and   organiza@onal   asymmetries  through  an   Comfort  in   Intelligent   Pervasive   advanced  use  of  the   the  cloud   enterprise   analy@cs   Analy@cs  and  of  the  Social   Networks  •  Deliver  their  services  in   Cloud   Social  By:  Roberto  Masiero   fabric   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   9  
  • 10. Service  oriented  mandate   SO  beyond  architecture   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   •  Embrace  service  oriented   delivery  models  and  pay   Capital  versus   per  use   opera@onal   •  Make  their  offer  much   more  flexible  and  loca@on   agnos@c   •  Use  financial  tools  to   reduce  customer´s  CAPEX   Sourcing  drivers   By:  Jaime  Garcia  Cantero  30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   10  
  • 11. Maintenance  gets  new  respect  Successful  ICT  vendors  will:  •  Demonstrate  respect  for   customers’  concerns  and   communicate  value  in   maintenance  offerings  •  Embrace  social  technologies   Business   to  reduce  cost  of   con@nuity   maintenance  delivery,  and   mandate   pass  on  savings  to  customers   Opera@onal   recognises   technology   maintenance   comes  under   as  cri@cal   ICT   responsibility   New  challenges   to  vendor   maintenance   fees   By:  Puni  Rajah   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   11  
  • 12. Data  analy@cs  for  the  pioneers  in  2012   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   •  Stop  focusing  on  the  ‘Big’  in  Big  In  2012  data  analy@cs  will  grow  in  order  to   Data  mine  content  in  the  vast  estate  of  corporate   •  Instead  drive  the  broad  discussion  storage.     of  analy@cs  By  joining  unstructured  data  located  in   •  Content  centric  vendors  decide  to  repositories  across  the  web  businesses  aims  to   lead  in  analy@cs  make  beher  and  faster  decisions.    The  data  pioneers  hope  to  find  first  mover  advantage,  but  the  prac@ce  will  eventually   Volume  become  widely  adopted.     Value  By:  Claus  Egge  
  • 13. Sourcing  matures   towards  outcomes   Specialist   skills   Technology   producers  Successful  ICT  vendors  will:  •  Align  sales  and  engagement  teams   Internal  resources   to  keep  pace  with  customers   internal  changes  •  Re-­‐design  delivery  processes  to  cope   with  smaller  contracts  profitably  By:  Puni  Rajah     30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   13  
  • 14. Local  players  prove  to  be  more  agile   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:   •  Re-­‐posi@oning  becomes  priority   •  Enable  and  s@mulate  the   •  Consumeriza@on  drives  agenda   growth  of  an  ecosystem   of    new  innova@ve  local   players   •  Cloud  providers   •  deliver  plaoorms  and     •  BPO  stacks  and  brokers   services  for  a  new  wave   of  business  applica@ons   moving    from   •  Lower  barriers  to  entry   transac@onal  systems  to     •  Compelling  returns   new  engagement,   experien@al  and  personal     fullfilment  systems    By:  Ezio  Viola   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   14  
  • 15. Maturing  markets  pave  way  for   newcomers   •  Apple  will  lose  its  dominant  posi@on  in  the  Successful  ICT  vendors   smart  phone  market.    will:   •  While  Apple  was  eminent  in  understanding  that   people  wanted  a  device  that  extended  their  •  Ensure  cross-­‐plaoorm   personality  rather  than  just  technology,  the   capability  on  mobile   economic  situa@on  in  the  industrialized  world   and  the  growth  in  developing  countries  means   plaoorms   that  there  will  be  much  more  focus  on  price.  This  •  Move  to  mobile  as   will  give  Nokia,  Samsung  and  others  a  chance  to   fast  as  possible   re-­‐define  their  posi@on  in  the  smart  phone     marked  and  take  share  from  Apple.     •  This  will  lead  to  an  explosion  of  new  companies   that  will  develop  Apps  to  more  plaoorms  trying     to  capitalize  on  the  explosion  of  devices  on   Windows  and  Android.  And  applica@ons  will   become  more  "business-­‐like"  as  more  users  buy   for  economic  reasons  rather  than  social.  By:  Peter  Perregaard    30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   15  
  • 16. The  lawyers’  bill   Patent  wars   Successful  ICT  vendors   will:   •  The  industry  misses  opportuni@es  as  management   •  accept  legal  counsel   energy  is  distracted  by  legal  issues   and  rising  costs  as   part  of  the  ICT   industry   •  Co-­‐operate  and  align   An@  trust   along  interest  groups   to  be  more  effec@ve       •  Plaoorm  giants  like  Facebook  will  face  increasing   an@-­‐trust  ahen@on      By:    Peter  Perregaard     30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   16  
  • 17. Digital  Divide  Persists   Trends:   Successful  ICT  vendors  will:     Government  out  of  touch   Support  ci@zens  in  their  quest  for  a  digital  Europe  by   •Ci@zen  services  are  rolled  out   helping  governments  embrace  social  networking,   slower  than  demand   open  data,  and  the  cloud       Policies  fail  to  keep  pace   Show  support  for  net  neutrality.  (if  you  dont,  look  at   •NetNeutrality   what  happened  to  go  daddy  for  suppor@ng  SOPA)       Rising  need  for  con@nuity   Help  par@cipa@ng  actors  communicate  to  each  other   management   about  dependencies  in  the  digital  supply  chain  and   •Who  is  responsible?   beyond.   •Who  will  fund?        By:  Pim  Bilderbeek   30  December  2011   ICT  Research  Network   17  
  • 18. Looking  ahead  to  2012   ICT  Research  Network