Key industry and market indicators for may 2015 canada and north america
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1. Key Market and Economic indicators 2. Government policies
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Key industry and market indicators for may 2015 canada and north america
- 1. Canada Economy Overview for May 2015 – Trends and Policies Analysis By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
- 6. Impact of Production change
- 9. Scotia Bank
- 10. Automotive
- 12. Canada Exports and Imports
- 13. Canada Trade
- 14. Exports – EDC Comments
- 15. Canada Exports
- 16. Canada Exports
- 17. Trade Comments
- 21. CIBC – Trade Comments
- 22. BMO – Trade Comments
- 26. Canada MFG Sales
- 33. US MFG
- 34. US MFG
- 35. US MFG
- 36. PMI Index
- 37. PMI Index
- 38. Robotics
- 39. Competitiveness
- 40. Competitiveness
- 41. Freight Index
- 42. Freight Index
- 43. Trailer Sales
- 44. Housing Starts
- 45. Housing Starts - USA
- 46. Housing Starts - Canada
- 47. AG Equipment
- 48. Canada Equipment Tax Policy
- 52. Commodity Prices
- 53. Commodity Index
- 54. Commodity Index
- 55. Commodity Index
- 56. Commodity Index
- 57. Iron Ore
- 58. Lithium
- 59. Copper
- 60. Aluminum Wiring
- 61. Oil Rig Count
- 62. US Oil
- 63. Oil
- 64. Oil
- 65. Crude Oil
- 66. Crude Oil
- 67. Canada Oil
- 68. Oil - China
- 69. Saudi Arabia
- 71. US Machine Tools
- 72. Robotic Trends
- 73. Class 8 Truck Sales
- 74. Truck Sales
- 75. Steel Analysis
- 76. Steel Analysis
- 77. Green Technology
- 78. Cleantech Index
- 79. Cleantech Index
- 80. Asia / Green Tech
- 82. Other Provinces
- 83. BC • http://www.ballard.com/about-ballard/newsroom/news- releases/news06081501.aspx • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/enwave-ultima- sign-yogurt-technology-agreement-148215/ • http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/shell-led-lng-project-gets- environmental-go-ahead-from-ottawa-b-c-1.2427779
- 84. Alberta • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/pembina- investing-125m-to-expand-horizon-pipeline-149182/ • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/cenovus-to- buy-canexus-oil-transloading-facility-for-75m-149180/ • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply- chain/pharmaceutical-firm-to-invest-100m-in-edmonton- manufacturing-site-148953/
- 86. Saskatchewan
- 89. Ontario • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canpotex- orders-700-new-railcars-from-national-steel-car-150078/ • http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1556317/aero-montreal-and- ontario-aerospace-council-oac-sign-a-strategic-collaboration- agreement • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/blight-in-b- c-means-opportunity-for-ont-hazelnut-farmers-148921/ • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/highway-401- expansion-ignores-key-design-flaws-hurts-area-businesses-149461/
- 90. Ontario
- 91. Ontario
- 92. Ontario
- 93. Quebec • www.miningweekly.com/article/arianne-phosphate-and-quebec-first- nations-ink-cooperation-covenant-2015-06-12 • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/feds- choose-davie-for-sole-sourced-navy-supply-ship-retrofit-150259/ • http://www.miningweekly.com/article/paladin-energys-michelin- project-gains-federal-nod-for-foreign-majority-ownership-2015-06-22
- 95. Nova Scotia • http://www.aecon.com/Media_Room/~1364-Aecon-Group-Inc- secures-fabrication-contract-for-OpenHydro • http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/1293835-arctic-patrol-vessels- %E2%80%98really-have-started%E2%80%99-construction-says-irving- president
- 98. North • http://www.gov.yk.ca/news/15-205.html#.VYazpvlVhBc • http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674peterson_pulls_ the_plug_on_nunavut_mlas_green_energy_dreams/ • http://www.northlandutilities.com/Documents/StopTheWaste/Northl andUtilitie-Response-to-2014-Energy-Charrette.pdf
- 99. Economic Trends for Canada
- 100. Canada GDP – March 2015
- 101. Canada GDP – March 2015
- 102. Retail Sales
- 103. Retail sales by Province
- 104. Retail sales by Segment
- 105. Retail Sales - Canada
- 106. Employment
- 107. Employment
- 108. Employment
- 109. Household Debt
- 110. Wages / Canada
- 111. Global Trends
- 112. Global Trends
- 113. US Economy
- 114. Latin America
- 115. Latin America
- 116. Mexico
- 117. Currency
- 118. Currency
- 119. Corporations
- 120. Capital Spending - USA
- 121. Small Business
- 122. Small Business
- 123. Small Business
- 124. Small Business
- 125. Government Policies
- 127. Quebec Government / Security Audits
- 129. Pipelines
- 130. BC and Resource Management
- 131. NDP Corporate Taxation• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/ • Taxation Analysis - NDP Policy: http://xfer.ndp.ca/2013/policybook/2013-04-17-PolicyBook_E.pdf • NDP lists manufacturing: • Harper has already supports MFG via tax policies and/or grants - http://cme-mec.ca/_uploads/_media/52fqtx4b9.pdf. So, how is the NDP going to handle tax policies? NDP talks about support for business, but says nothing on existing programs like SDTC or EDC or other programs that support seed money or loans or other tax reduction, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-investment-for-canada or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada. • Harper has no control over provinces establishing policies like carbon pricing/taxation or provincial pension plans, regulations, etc. Yet, these aforementioned programs do more harm than good to Canada’s competitive position. • Canada already has a green economy via programs like SDTC. So, why does Mulcair not mentioned that in his statements? http://dualcitizeninc.com/GGEI- Report2014.pdf. • FTA/Investment agreements by Harper already supports huge inflow of capital to help develop the resources and/or industry in Canada - http://www.automationmag.com/industry-news/news/4429-canada-ranks-third-globally-in-foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/. Yet, Mr. Mulcair does not mention that issue, why? • Exports – Harper’s trade deal will start to provide more opportunity for business - https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/united-kingdom/en/tools-data/trade- forecasts/ca. Yet Mulcair does not mention these deals, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-trade-growth-to-return-to- pre-recession-levels-says-hsbc-148943/ • NDP says targeting employment tax credit, but is that not the same as what Harper is doing with EI cuts and/or training/skills options – So, how come this program is ignored by Mulcair - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html. • NDP has transitioned programs listed, but says little how Harper has introduced programs to help business adjust to competitive pressures, why? http://saulschwartz.com/2014/12/11/the-newfoundland-fisheries-innovation-and-adjustment-fund/. NF is fighting the program as they want to use the money for other purposes. So, does the NDP support handling a blank check to the provinces without any accountability on how the money is to be spent as part of any transitioning of businesses?
- 132. NDP Corporate Taxation • NDP has social programs like EI and CPP on the list, but is less than clear what that means in terms of policies. If there is further expansion of those programs then how will the cost be pick up? Does that mean the NDP endorses higher payroll taxes? Harper is working on training and skills development - http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1528807/harper-government-announces-support-mine-training. NDP never makes comments on these programs, why? NDP is also less than clear on education, especially at the provincial level. It is not Harper’s fault if provinces are not putting the right focus on skills and training: http://www.plant.ca/insights/canada-needs-manufacturing-strategy/. The provinces set the educational curriculum as such why is Mulcair not calling out the provinces? • Made in Canada solutions? How is Mulcair going to come up with value added work in Canada? Is Mulcair going to throw subsidies at business? Yet, Harper is focus on advance manufacturing that will lead to valued added work being created in Canada - http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=905129 http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/harper-government-supports-innovation-in-western-canada-2000280.htm • NDP has labor laws listed, but said little how provinces have control over many areas of labor law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_labour_law or http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/ontario-to-launch-consultations-on-labour-laws-62723. So, where does the NDP stand on bringing consistency to labor laws across Canada? • Social responsibilities – Harper continues to ensure companies live up to their social responsibilities - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on- business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/ottawa-vows-to-protect-canada-brand-with-social-responsibility-policy/article21579511/ or How come Mr. Mulcair does not discussed the sustainable reporting already being done by companies? http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/sustainability/publications/corporate- sustainability-reporting-canada-2009-en.pdf • Overall, the NDP policies is all about riding existing policies as well as putting their own spin on policies. The ironic thing is that most of the policies in discussion by the NDP have already been implemented by Harper and/or will continue to be revisited as part supporting the economy. • The NDP is also not being truthful on the cost of their programs as any changes to programs will have a costs. So, where is the fully-costed analysis from the NDP? It seems to me NDP is just throwing out policies without truly understanding either the cost impact and/or the risk to business as part implementing changes in policies! •
- 133. Corporate Taxation
Editor's Notes
- 1. Source: Wards Automotive
- Canadian Manufacturing
- Canadian Manufacturing
- Ward Autmotive
- http://www.desrosiers.ca/pdfs/autowatch.pdf
- Source: http://www.desrosiers.ca/pdfs/autowatch.pdf Source: http://driving.ca/chrysler/auto-news/news/canadian-auto-sales-climbed-3-4-per-cent-in-february
- Source: http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bns_auto.pdf
- Scotia bank
- Source: Stats Canada Exports changed their reporting to breakout key countries in October 2014. Estimated 2015 based on higher US exports (US economy is expanding)
- Stats Canada
- EDC
- EDC
- EDC
- PMI Index
- CMEhttp://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=7QWYY-AYJ7H-MCGEM
- CME CMEhttp://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=7QWYY-AYJ7H-MCGEM
- CME CMEhttp://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=7QWYY-AYJ7H-MCGEM
- CIBC
- BMO
- Stats Canada
- Analysis Oil is off by $2B MFG has pickup $1B of the oil drop through forestry, transportation, food manufacturing, etc.
- Stats Canada
- Analysis Transportation is off by 4.7% from its pre-recessionary high Metal Fabrication is off 21% from its pre-recessionary high Machinery is off by 4.7%
- http://www.fpac.ca/index.php/en/press-releases-full/canadas-forest-industry-outdoes-competitors-in-environmental-credentials
- TD Bank 1. TD normally is known to be more Liberal friendly with their post. The CEO for TD is doing asset review for LPO
- Scotia Bank Economics
- BNS
- BNS
- http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/scotiaflash20150615A.pdf
- BNS
- http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/6/16/USfactoryoutputdowninMayhurtbyoilrefiningcuts.aspx
- http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/CA_Manufacturing_ENG_1504_LITE.pdf RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™ In association with the Supply Chain Management Association Manufacturing PMI signals slower downturn in business conditions during March Key findings: n Manufacturing PMI picked up slightly from February’s survey-record low... n ...helped by slower declines in output and new orders n Staffing levels decreased for the third month running March data indicated a further downturn in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector, but the rate of contraction moderated from the survey-record low seen in the previous month. Output, new business and employment levels all fell at slower rates than in February. Manufacturers nonetheless signalled a solid reduction in work-in-hand (but not yet completed), and inventory levels were reduced again amid concerns about the outlook for client demand. The headline figure derived from the survey is the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), which is designed to provide timely indications of changes in prevailing business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector. PMI readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 signal deterioration. At 48.9 in March, up fractionally from 48.7 in February, the seasonally adjusted RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 value for the second month running. This represents the first back-to-back deterioration in overall business conditions in the survey’s four-and-a-half year history. Moreover, the average reading for Q1 as a whole (49.5) is the weakest since the survey began in late-2010. Survey respondents suggested that falling capital spending among clients in the energy sector remained the key factor weighing on new business intakes in March. That said, the latest overall decline in incoming new work was only modest and less marked than that seen in the previous month. Export sales also fell at a slower pace than in February, with some firms commenting on support from exchange rate depreciation and stronger demand from clients in the U.S. A moderate drop in overall new orders resulted in another decrease in manufacturing production in March. Moreover, the latest survey suggested a lack of pressure on operating capacity, as highlighted by a reduction in backlogs of work for the fourth consecutive month. Reduced production schedules and falling workloads contributed to more cautious staff hiring patterns in March. Latest data signalled that payroll numbers decreased for the third month running, although the rate of job shedding moderated from February’s survey-record pace. A number of manufacturers pointed to deliberate stock reduction policies at their plants in response to the uncertain business outlook. Pre-production inventories decreased at the fastest rate since November 2010, while stocks of finished goods were depleted at the most marked pace for just under three years. Volumes of input buying fell for the second month running in March, reflecting efforts to prevent inventory accumulation across the manufacturing sector. This helped alleviate supply chain pressures in March, with the latest lengthening of vendor lead times the least marked since August 2013. Average cost burdens increased at a robust pace in March, which survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed to exchange rate depreciation and a corresponding rise in imported raw material costs. That said, the overall rate of input cost inflation moderated since February, while factory gate charges also rose at a weaker pace. In association
- http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/CA_Manufacturing_ENG_1504_LITE.pdf RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™ In association with the Supply Chain Management Association Manufacturing PMI signals slower downturn in business conditions during March Key findings: n Manufacturing PMI picked up slightly from February’s survey-record low... n ...helped by slower declines in output and new orders n Staffing levels decreased for the third month running March data indicated a further downturn in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector, but the rate of contraction moderated from the survey-record low seen in the previous month. Output, new business and employment levels all fell at slower rates than in February. Manufacturers nonetheless signalled a solid reduction in work-in-hand (but not yet completed), and inventory levels were reduced again amid concerns about the outlook for client demand. The headline figure derived from the survey is the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), which is designed to provide timely indications of changes in prevailing business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector. PMI readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 signal deterioration. At 48.9 in March, up fractionally from 48.7 in February, the seasonally adjusted RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 value for the second month running. This represents the first back-to-back deterioration in overall business conditions in the survey’s four-and-a-half year history. Moreover, the average reading for Q1 as a whole (49.5) is the weakest since the survey began in late-2010. Survey respondents suggested that falling capital spending among clients in the energy sector remained the key factor weighing on new business intakes in March. That said, the latest overall decline in incoming new work was only modest and less marked than that seen in the previous month. Export sales also fell at a slower pace than in February, with some firms commenting on support from exchange rate depreciation and stronger demand from clients in the U.S. A moderate drop in overall new orders resulted in another decrease in manufacturing production in March. Moreover, the latest survey suggested a lack of pressure on operating capacity, as highlighted by a reduction in backlogs of work for the fourth consecutive month. Reduced production schedules and falling workloads contributed to more cautious staff hiring patterns in March. Latest data signalled that payroll numbers decreased for the third month running, although the rate of job shedding moderated from February’s survey-record pace. A number of manufacturers pointed to deliberate stock reduction policies at their plants in response to the uncertain business outlook. Pre-production inventories decreased at the fastest rate since November 2010, while stocks of finished goods were depleted at the most marked pace for just under three years. Volumes of input buying fell for the second month running in March, reflecting efforts to prevent inventory accumulation across the manufacturing sector. This helped alleviate supply chain pressures in March, with the latest lengthening of vendor lead times the least marked since August 2013. Average cost burdens increased at a robust pace in March, which survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed to exchange rate depreciation and a corresponding rise in imported raw material costs. That said, the overall rate of input cost inflation moderated since February, while factory gate charges also rose at a weaker pace. In association
- Harvard Business Review
- Chamber of Commerce
- Chamber of Commerce
- Source: Department of Transpohttp://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/5/13/DOTreleasesMarchfreightnumbers.aspxrt - United States http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/programs/freight_transportation/
- http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/6/15/Railintermodalupovercarloadingsforfirsttime.aspx
- http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/6/18/Trailerordersdown29percentyear-over-yearFTRsays.aspx
- CMC and Bureau of Stats
- Scotia Bank
- Scotia Bank
- Source: http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/Reports/AgTCR-US/
- https://www.aem.org/News/Advisors/AEM/?HL=2015_Canadian_Budget_Encourages_Manufacturing_Investment&A=1732
- EIS
- EIS
- http://americanmachinist.com/news/service-centers-shipments-mixed-inventories-rising
- BMO Economics
- BMO Economics
- BMO Economics
- BMO Economics
- BMO Economics
- Mining Industry
- Mining Investing
- PWC
- http://copperinvestingnews.com/24630-china-aluminum-wiring-copper-prices.html
- Baker Hughes
- US Government
- TD Economics
- TD Economics
- http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf
- http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf
- Stats canada
- Bloomberg
- http://www.amtonline.org/amt_items/USMTO_Jan15.pdf
- http://www.amtonline.org/newsroom
- http://www.robotics.org/content-detail.cfm/Industrial-Robotics-News/North-American-Robotics-Market-Continues-Breaking-Records-with-Strongest-Opening-Quarter-Ever/content_id/5367
- http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/1/12/Decembersales2ndbestmonthin21stcentury.aspx http://trailer-bodybuilders.com/chassis/medium-and-heavy-truck-sales-6-april
- http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/6/11/Truckssalespass20Kmarkfor3rdconsecutivemonth.aspx
- http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
- http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
- Bloomberg and Renewable Energy
- Source: cleantech
- Source: cleantech
- http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/17/world/asia/ap-as-asia-clean-energy.html?_r=0
- US private sector pledges $4B for climate change http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/white-house-announces-4b-in-private-sector-pledges-to-address-climate-change-1.2424799
- BC has a new carbon tax on Liquefied Natural Gas: http://www.pwc.com/ca/en/tax/budgets/2014/british-columbia-unveils-its-liquefied-natural-gas-tax.jhtml
- http://www.edc.ca/EN/About-Us/News-Room/News-Releases/Pages/saskatchewan-gef.aspx
- Canadian manufacturing
- Canadian manufacturing
- Canadian manufacturing
- BNS
- Stats Canada
- Source: Scotia Bank
- http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150320/t150320b001-eng.htm
- http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150320/t150320b001-eng.htm
- Scotia Bank
- BMO
- BMO
- Stats Canada
- RBC
- Stats Canada
- Scotiabank
- Scotia Bank
- US Economy
- Scotia Bank
- Scotia Bank
- Canadian Manufacturing
- CIBC Economics
- CIBC Economics
- FIREapps
- Scotiabank
- CIBC
- CIBC
- CIBC
- CIBC
- Government of Canada
- http://www.canadianconsultingengineer.com/engineering/quebec-firms-must-have-security-audit/1003400454/
- http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=PQFQQ-MDUBQ-M8NF6&comaction=show
- Government of Canada
- http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/149039-149039/
- NDP leader Mulcair’s corporate tax policy needs clarity A parade of public errors regarding the corporate
- NDP Tax polcies
- http://taxfoundation.org/article/2014-international-tax-competitiveness-index