• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
World Media Trends 2007 Sfn 2007 Extra New
 

World Media Trends 2007 Sfn 2007 Extra New

on

  • 6,220 views

You have to read this

You have to read this

Statistics

Views

Total Views
6,220
Views on SlideShare
6,217
Embed Views
3

Actions

Likes
2
Downloads
294
Comments
0

2 Embeds 3

http://alliekeith.blogspot.com 2
http://www.lmodules.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    World Media Trends 2007 Sfn 2007 Extra New World Media Trends 2007 Sfn 2007 Extra New Document Transcript

    • Shaping the Future of the Newspaper SPECIAL REPORT ANALYSING STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PRESS INDUSTRY MAY 2007 © WAN 2007 This yearbook serves as World a digital compass for the world’s media strategists, by providing Digital more than 160 data sets from more than 35 sources, and analysis, about the Media revenue-making and media usage trends for the Internet and mobile industries, Trends and compared with that of established media www.futureofthenewspaper.com All the strategy reports are available to WAN members and subscribers at the SFN website
    • Shaping the Future of the Newspaper www.wan-press.org A WORLD ASSOCIATION OF NEWSPAPERS PROJECT, SUPPORTED BY WORLD’S LEADING BUSINESS PARTNERS www.man-roland.com/en/p0001/index.jsp A LEADING COMPANY FOR NEWSPAPER PRODUCTION SYSTEMS www.publigroupe.com/en/hom.cfm THE SWITZERLAND-BASED INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION GROUP http://w3.upm-kymmene.com/ ONE OF THE WORLD’S LEADING PRINTING PAPER PRODUCERS www.telenor.com/ THE LEADING NORWEGIAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS, IT AND MEDIA GROUP © WORLD ASSOCIATION OF NEWSPAPERS, 2007
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 5 Executive Summary 9 1 The multiple media advertising landscape 15 Introduction 15 Global media revenues market 17 Global advertising spending 18 Advertising spending in North America 19 Advertising spending in the United States 20 Advertising spending in Canada 21 Advertising spending in EMEA 22 Adspend share in the EU 23 Advertising spending in Western Europe 24 Advertising spending in Asia Pacific 24 Advertising spending in Latin America 25 Adspend change in EU, USA and Japan 26 Conclusion 27 Appendix 28 2 Digital media usage trends 39 Media usage trends 39 Internet 44 Mobile 52 Video online 64 3 Impact on newspaper industry 67 Newspapers advertising expenditure 69 News sources 70 Online newspapers users 73 Mobile phones 76 Newsblogs 77 4 Newspaper industry digital trends 81 Internet usage 82 Revenues 82 Video advertising 83 Subscriptions 84 Banner format 85 Mobile revenues 86 Digital content 86 5 Conclusion 89 6 Appendix 93 Links to research content partners 93 3
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER 4
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Introduction: A digital compass Across the spectrum of industries worldwide, companies for the 21st Century. Around the statistical trends and projections have world, digital media usage and revenue are traditionally served as key ingredients for growing at a double-digit pace, while traditional business plans and new product proposals. media like print, TV and radio develop strongly Business development gurus use this research in numerous countries, though they are coming to plot their long-term strategies and devise under pressure in some mature markets. new products. In the media sector, newspaper companies are navigating the uncharted Meanwhile, the growth of new digital immigrants territories of mobile, Internet and other digital to Internet and mobile is starting to level off in media, armed with data and forecasts from a some parts of the world. For example, the UK- variety of disparate sources. based Informa research company projects that between 2006 and 2011, the number of unique The World Association of Newspapers has mobile subscribers will rise 42.2 percent to almost compiled these important digital media studies 3 billion, but in 2011, the annual growth rate of into World Digital Media Trends to provide a new subscribers will slow to a mere 3.03 percent. digital compass for the world’s media strategists, to assist them in tapping into the By 2004, mobile subscription revenue in the tremendous opportunity of digital media. 30 OECD* countries had reached US$376.6 million. After its heyday in the mid-1990s – World Digital Media Trends, in its inaugural mobile revenue growth rates peaked at 63 year, explores global and regional trends in percent in 1995 – mobile revenue growth digital media for revenue-making, usage started to slow down. Since 2001, it has patterns, and comparisons to that of other remained at less than 20 percent. So the media. The data include projected trajectories mobile phone industry has supplemented of these media trends. subscription rates with a variety of download The mobile and Internet channels represent far- and subscription add-ons, which have made reaching business opportunities to media the telecom industry a more lucrative business. 5
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Percentage of U.S. adults online % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5 6 7 8 0 01 01 02 02 04 04 05 05 05 06 6 0 3 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 b- p- n- p- b- e- n- e- p- n- e ly ov ay ug ril ch ay un un un Ja Ja Ja Fe Se Se Fe Se Ju Ap M -M N ar -A -J -J -J g- il- M b- ly ch ay ay ay r Au Ju Fe Ap ar M M M M Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project Surveys, March 2000-April 2006 Meanwhile, in Scandinavia and North slowdown in growth of online advertising in the America, broadband penetration and Internet coming years. While double-digit increases have subscription penetration are tapering off. The been the norm starting with 2002, the trend will implications are clear: As the throngs of new slow significantly after 2008, the IAB/PwC Internet and mobile users plateau, traffic forecasts. growth also will likely slow down. As the From 2008 to 2009, online advertising spending traffic slows, so will revenue growth. growth will likely slow to 9.8 percent from 17.5 Indeed, the Interactive Advertising Bureau / percent, and from 2009 to 2010, the rate will PricewaterhouseCoopers projects a significant slow to 6.8 percent. Global mobile revenue US$ millions 400 376.6 350 332.17 300 279.43 250 256.32 231.64 200 190.65 150 143.8 131.39 100 105.9 72.87 50 44.64 29.10 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Note : 2003 instead of 2004 data were used for Finland, the Netherlands and Japan. Source: OECD Key ICT Indicators [www.oecd.org/sti/ICTindicators] 6
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Mobile subscriber growth U.S. online advertising spending by regions growth, 2000 to 2010 Subscriptions Growth (millions) (%) Percent increase/decrease from prior year 1000 02 2005 02 2006 Growth 70 -11.8 2000 900 62 60 -15.8 2001 800 700 56 50 2002 20.9 600 39 40 2004 32.5 500 30 2005 30.3 400 33 300 26 2006 26.8 20 200 2007 15.1 11 12 10 100 2008 17.5 0 0 2009 9.8 Africa Americas Asia Europe Europe Middle US / Pacific Eastern Western East Canada 2010 6.8 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, Mobile Industry Outlook 2007 Source: IAB/PricewaterhouseCoopers data, eMarketer, September 2006 As these media channels mature, the trends in usage patterns also should stabilize over time. Global Internet advertising spend That should make strategic development more (US$ billions) manageable, since consumer targets 2005 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e presumably will become more predictable. PwC 19.2 22.8 26.1 29.3 32.2 Until then, new segments of the digital Zenith 18.7 24.5 31.3 36.9 42.7 landscape will continue to emerge without Piper Jaffray 22.0 31.2 41.3 51.4 61.3 warning, and many will become popular Sources: Shaping the Future of the Newspaper comparison of 2006 PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Zenith Optimedia, Piper Jaffray statistics havens for users. In the past few years alone, the growth of specialized forms of digital Media markets continue to attract more ad communications include SMS, instant expenditure during the century’s first decade. messaging, online video, podcasting, and However, market share for ad expenditure is blogging. These draw millions of users and shrinking for some media, including contributors worldwide each day. newspapers, as the Internet is pulling a higher According to American Association of percentage of share each year. According to Advertising Agencies research published PriceWaterhouseCoopers, from 2001 to 2010, in 2006, the three fastest growing forms of the global newspaper industry ad spend is Internet media between 2005 and 2006 in projected to grow from about US$100 billion the U.S. are podcasting (20.2 percent), blogs to US$140 billion. Meanwhile, though the (29.6 percent) and video (50.2 percent). Internet ad spend is still small compared to newspapers, its market share is increasing The rapid growth of the digital marketplace has dramatically, from 3 percent in 2001 to 10 created a challenge for multimedia publishers. percent in 2010. Digital media is difficult to track both because of the speed of growth and its fragmented nature. The research chronicled in WDMT runs a While research houses attempt to accurately broad gamut: capture the trends, statistics often don’t jibe with • Ad spending across media channels other published research. For instance revenue • Consumer use of multiple media forecasts can quickly become out of date as the • Mobile phone revenue opportunities marketplace shifts unexpectedly. Some • Simultaneous media consumption discrepancies in data can stem from differences • Youth media consumption trends in research methodology, sample sizes or target • Video online growth groups. Still, the result can be radically divergent • Local online advertising trends. numbers for the same category of research. One example is Internet advertising spend. The World Association of Newspapers Since 2000, actual statistics and projections wishes to thank a long list of esteemed global from a variety of companies have varied widely. and country-specific research organizations Publishers should study these discrepancies in that have shared their data for the purposes statistical trends with a discriminating eye. of this compilation. The World Association 7
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Global advertising spending and market share, newspapers vs. Internet US$ millions Newspapers ad expenditure (US$ millions) Internet ad expenditure (US$ millions) (%) 160,000 Newspapers market share (%) Internet market share (%) 35 140,000 30 120,000 25 100,000 20 80,000 15 60,000 10 40,000 20,000 5 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates of Newspapers hopes this collection provides We rely on the sources of data and the the reader a clearer picture of the digital generosity of the research houses in order to landscape by analyzing the context of the act on our commitment to bring the widest data, and the opportunities the trends may array of information to our publisher represent. Web addresses have been provided colleagues. so readers can access a wealth of data that To contribute research to this compilation, goes well beyond the published charts in please contact Martha Stone, Director of the WDMT. Further, the World Association of Shaping the Future of the Newspaper project, Newspapers will continue to publish news at mstone@wan.asso.fr items on www.FutureoftheNewspaper.com as new studies appear throughout the year. Web sites can be found on Page 93. The new Web site will provide a variety of * The 30 OECD Countries are Australia, research reports and analysis on issues that Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, affect our industry. Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, WDMT is a work in progress. Next year’s Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, volume will be expanded, with many more Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New sources of data. As years go on, we will Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak continue to illuminate the emergence of many Republic, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Turkey, more digital channel frontiers. United States and United Kingdom. 8
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Executive Summary The media landscape has changed forever. For In order to regain mindshare and market share, media consumers, digitalization has expanded many media companies are launching new the daily media usage options from traditional products on a variety of media channels. The media including print, TV, and radio, to research compiled for the World Digital Media include a vast array of digital choices like Trends show clearly that each individual Internet, podcasting, blogging, interactive TV, consumer demands these new channels in short messaging, instant messaging, video, different ways and at different times. In the digital radio, and much more. final analysis, it behooves media companies to take advantage of the emerging opportunities For media companies, these seismic shifts in in their marketplace by investing in new the media landscape have caused the definition methods of publishing and exploring revenue of competition to change. No longer are local options for these new channels. newspapers just competing against other local newspapers. They are now vying for Of course, new digital trends emerge on a advertising spend and subscriptions in an regular basis. Only ten years ago, the Internet increasingly crowded media marketplace. In and mobile phones carried text and voice data, fact, they may be competing with companies respectively. Thanks to digitalization and that are not traditional media firms at all. technology advancements, each media has morphed into a multimedia channel. Media Now, local media companies are competing content has become interchangeable among with international digital brands like Yahoo! digital media. New technologies allow for the and Google for local advertising. In these days rapid deployment of multimedia content across of increasingly busy lifestyles, multitasking channels. For example, the same video used on and multisensory overload, established media television can be converted for publishing on companies also are frequently losing the battle smaller screens like computers, video iPods for mindshare, or time and attention. and mobile phones. Depending on the viewer, 9
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER user, reader or listener’s preferences, video, WAN employs a methodology based on well- graphics, text and sound can be accessed on established, credible data provided by the CIA almost any digital medium. WorldFactbook 2007 and OECD statistics about broadband, mobile and Internet Digital media trends are not created equally, penetration. In all, 35 countries are profiled, country by country. In order to make sense of encompassing every major region in the world. the country-by-country and regional trends in digital consumption and revenue-making, the By indexing the key digital media categories, World Association of Newspapers has created WDMT has found that the Scandinavian the WDMT Index, which allows us to show countries, the United Kingdom, the United digital “hotspots” around the world. States, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Some markets are more engaged than others Portugal, Switzerland, Korea and Japan, all when it comes to digital channel usage, rate as the World’s Hot Spots, with more than broadband penetration and mobile telephony 60 percent Internet penetration and 70 percent consumption. The WDMT Index ranks mobile penetration. countries based on an equal weighting of mobile penetration and Internet penetration in In addition to the WDMT Index, this WDMT each country. yearbook is filled with trends from a variety of Digital Hot Spots World Association of Newspapers digital index shows countries with combined highest mobile and Internet penetrations Hotter Internet 60%+ Mobile 70% + Australia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Warmer Internet 40-60% Mobile 65-70% Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Ireland, Italy, Slovak Republic, Spain Cooler Internet <40% Mobile <65% Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China & HK, Colombia, Greece, Hungary, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Venezuela Source: 2005 OECD and Central Intelligence Agency statistics, equally weighted for mobile and Internet 10
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Media usage during an average week % (% of U.S. population) 120 During an average WEEK (MONDAY-SUNDAY), do you… Age 18-34 35-54 55+ 100 80 60 40 20 0 Listen Listen to Listen Watch Surf the Read/ Read Read Read Instant Blog? Video to the satellite to web TV? Internet? send magazines? the the mail? message? gaming? radio? radio? radio? E-mail? newspapers? Source: BIGresearch, SIMM9, Dec 2006 reputable and established sources. Not only do blogs are among the biggest names in the data showcase a variety of mobile newspapers online, including the New York consumption patterns, but also show the Times, Asahi Shimbun, Yomiuri Shimbun, individual trend patterns for individual media Times of London, and Guardian Unlimited. elements, like blogging, video and visiting • More than 1 trillion SMS messages were sent specific types of content, by country. In the worldwide 2006. The mobile SMS market has U.S., for example, BIG Research shows the become a multi-billion dollar industry More usage patterns of three age groups for all types than 90 percent of the non-voice revenue from of media, during the course of a week. mobile industry come from SMS. More than The research shows, for example, that more 80 percent of all mobile phone usage than 80 percent of the respondents accessed worldwide is from voice transmissions. the Internet in a given week, and the percentage was higher as the age groups • In 2005, podcasting emerged on the media become younger. However, those using email scene, and since, has become a popular during the space of a week were more likely to medium for news reports and infotainment. be in the older age categories. Podcasting is emerging as a revenue channel for some of the world’s media through Every year, segments of the digital channels advertising and subscriptions such as iTunes. emerge and quickly grow in popularity. Consider: • In 2006 and 2007, video advertising emerged as the hot new channel for advertising online. • In 2004, weblogs became a mainstream Around the world, video advertising is online media form, and as of mid-2006, an growing at double-digit rates, according to the estimated 50 million blogs existed. About Interactive Advertising Bureau and Borrell 175,000 new blogs are created each day, with Associates, in separate reports. Online about 1.6 million postings per day, according advertising also is led by search advertising, to Technorati, a blog aggregation Web site. classifieds and banner ads, according to these Blogs drive a tremendous amount of traffic to research houses. news Web sites. Items from blogs outside of news Web sites frequently reference and link • The once-burgeoning Web population is to news blogs, thereby driving traffic to them. starting to slow down in terms of new users. Among the most linked-to news Web sites with While Internet advertising continues to grow at 11
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER a quick clip, there are signs of a slowdown, the majority of the Internet population has especially in the West. Meanwhile, the outlook regularly accessed news and information sites for mobile phone advertising sales, in the world’s most Internet savvy countries, subscriptions and handset sales are robust, but led by the United States, France, Switzerland new subscribers are projected to slow down and the United Kingdom. The world’s most significantly in 2011, according to Informa. popular news Web sites are led by the biggest brands online, including Yahoo!, MSNBC and These are just some of the overarching themes CNN. Among the Top 10 are several that the World Digital Media Trends data show newspaper companies, including the New York us. Around the world, the consumption of Times, Gannett and USA Today. online video and audio is growing. From 2005 to 2006, upwards of half of the Internet According to Pew Research Center, populations in Spain, the UK, Australia, significantly more time is spent on traditional Brazil, France and Germany have accessed media on news in terms of frequency and audio and video online. For example, news is a length of time, compared with that of the popular destination for Internet and mobile Internet in the United States. An average of 40 phone users. According to Nielsen NetRatings, minutes is spent per user on news with newspapers per session, compared with 32 minutes online. Only 23 percent reported getting their news online “yesterday,” while 40 Online video/Audio viewership percent got news in newspapers, and 57 % of internet population 16+ percent got news from television yesterday. looked at video/audio content online % News also is among the three most paid-for 50 Q3 2006 Growth since Q3 2005 types of information in the countries with the 47 40 highest penetrations of mobile usership across 40 38 38 34 Asia and Europe. 30 30 20 27 Meanwhile, new forms of revenues are emerging online. Paid search and streaming 10 15 9 9 11 video are the fastest growing forms of local 7 0 online advertising in the U.S., according to Spain United Australia Brazil France Germany Kingdom Borrell Associates. Online commerce also has Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT, September 2005-2006 taken off around the world. Percentage of Internet population visiting news and information news sites % 80 70 74 74 69 67 60 64 64 63 61 60 59 50 40 30 20 10 0 United France Switzerland United Germany Australia Brazil Spain Japan Italy States Kingdom Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland 12
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS The world’s most popular News sources by medium news sites and the time spent, U.S. Rank Brand Active Unique (% of audience who) Channel Reach Audience Got news there yesterday (%) (millions) % 60 For 30 minutes or more 1 Yahoo! News 12.2 36.9 2 MSNBC 9.0 27.3 Average minutes spent per user 50 57 53 3 CNN 8.8 26.7 4 AOL News 7.4 22.3 48 43 40 5 Google News 5.7 17.4 40 40 6 NYTimes 4.5 13.7 30 36 32 7 BBC News 4.3 13.1 8 Gannett Newspapers 4.3 13.0 20 24 23 22 9 Internet Broadcasting 3.9 12.0 10 Websites 9 10 USA TODAY 3.7 11.3 0 Television Newspaper Radio Internet Source: Nielsen//NetRatings Global Index September 2006. Home & work data. Global statistics, except Japan Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 Most frequent use of mobile commerce in selected countries Japan Korea Hong Kong, Chinese Greece Finland China Taipei Sample (persons) 2,146 4,581 1,375 1,809 497 66 First place Download Download Reading Download News Download services services services services 28.8% 60% 58% 36.1% 12.1% 31.8% Second place News Games Deliver News Download News services services 16.2% 17.2% 21.6% 14.1% 9.9% 24.2% Third place Location Ticketing for Games Investment Weather Financial information movie/music info/trans report services 14.9% 12.7% 16.9% 10.2% 9.1% 9.1% Source: ECOM (2004b) Survey of Mobile Internet Use, Tables 3-5 and 3-7 According to Nielsen NetRatings, a significant According to Arbitron research, online users increase of purchases online was reported in report spending less time with traditional the UK, Germany, Australia, France, Spain and media because of their time spent online. For Brazil between 2005 and 2006. Despite the example, 30 percent of online users report they new revenue channels of advertising and e- spend less time with newspapers and commerce, the growth of the Internet appears magazines, while 33 percent of online users to have had a negative impact in some respects report spending less time with television on traditional media. because of their online usage. U.S. local online advertising in 2007 Percentage of Internet population (US$ millions) who have purchased online Banners & Paid search in last six months Listings $1,837 Base: 16+ who have ever used the internet $5,272 24% % 50 Q3 2006 48 47 Growth since Q3 2005 40 45 43 Streaming 68% 5% video 30 31 $371 3% 20 E-mail ads 19 21 19 $233 10 12 9 10 2 2 0 United Germany Australia France Spain Brazil Kingdom Source: Borrell Associates Inc. Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT, September 2005-2006 13
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Meanwhile, Internet advertising revenue continues to grow, seemingly at the expense of some established media. According to Zenith Global ad spending growth Optimedia, Internet advertising is set to grow % by medium, 2006-2009 80 an estimated 75 percent, from US$18.7 billion Total 70 74.55 in 2005 to US$42.7 billion in 2009, while Newspapers newspapers will grow 9.5 percent during the 60 Magazines same period, from US$119.2 billion in 2005 to TV 50 Radio US$135.2 billion in 2009. 40 Cinema Outdoor The ever-changing dynamics among 30 Internet established and emerging media has kept 20 25.39 24.08 media executives focused on plotting the 16.89 10 13.27 15.03 11.58 future development of their existing media 9.53 0 holdings, and the future investment in Source: Zenith Optimedia emerging media. The World Association of Newspapers has created World Digital Media Trends in 2007 to provide a digital compass for the world’s Percentage of U.S. online population media strategists, to assist them in tapping into spending less time with medium the tremendous growth of the digital due to time spent online, 2006 % opportunity with a compilation of these 35 important digital media studies. To see the 33 30 latest releases of new research, go to 30 30 25 www.FutureoftheNewspaper.com. 20 19 15 10 5 0 Radio Magazines Newspapers Television Source: Arbitron Inc./Edison Media Research 14
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 1. The multiple media advertising landscape Introduction Internet market for almost a decade, while in Central and Eastern Europe, the market is just In every region of the world, online advertising starting to take off. is the fastest-growing category of adspend. Latin America’s lagging Internet growth In virtually every region of the world, is caused by a variety of factors, but mostly, newspapers and TV by far represent the lion’s low Internet consumption compounded by share of media adspend, and will continue to low literacy rates. do so for the foreseeable future. These are the key conclusions of global research detailed in While statistics vary considerably between this chapter, provided by Zenith Optimedia, PwC and Zenith, the trends are similar: TV PriceWaterhouseCoopers and other research and newspapers media are losing ground to the houses. Internet in terms of adspend, but remain far and away the number one and number two Between 2006 and 2009, Zenith Optimedia media for adspend, worldwide, and will projects that Internet advertising will grow in continue to reign for years to come. A notable the double digits in every region of the world, trend is that projections for both PwC and with the fastest growth happening in Central World Advertising Research Center (WARC), and Eastern Europe (194 percent), Western show that TV has become the dominant Europe (94.33 percent) and Asia (71.69 advertising medium worldwide. Even in places percent). The slowest growth is occuring in where newspapers are the number one adspend Latin America, with 29.68 percent, followed media today, TV will surpass it in the near by North America with 64.86 percent. future, if the predicted trajectories continue. A variety of factors affect growth rates. For example, PwC found that in 2001, Perhaps the most important factor is the Newspapers were the top ad spending medium maturity of the Internet market in each region. in the U.S., in fact, almost double that of the For example, North America has had a robust number two, TV Networks Broadcast and 15
    • DECEMBER 2006 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Cable. PwC projects, however, that by the end overtake Newspaper adspend this year. of 2010, TV Networks Broadcast and Cable Meanwhile, the share of Internet adspend will will pull nearly even with newspapers, and shift significantly in the coming years, mostly then overtake it a few years later. plucking adspend from traditional media Separately, data from World Advertising budgets. By 2009, the largest share of Internet Research Center (WARC), 2006, showed that adspend will occur in North America, (10.54 Newspaper adspend in the top 15 markets in percent), followed closely by Western Europe the European Union was almost 50 percent (9.41 percent), according to ZenithOptimedia. of total adspend in 1985, with Magazines The world Internet adspend will jump from ranked second. In 1990, TV adspend just 2.84 percent in 2002 to 8.5 percent in supplanted Magazines, and TV is poised to 2009. Global media market (US$ millions) Video games Magazine publishing Recorded music Book publishing Radio/out-of-home advertising TV distribution 1,500,000 Filmed entertainement Newspapers publishing Internet advertising and access spending TV networks broadcast and cable 46,462 47,927 86,799 104,060 1,200,000 31,116 285,561 36,965 68,503 82,848 900,000 169,444 117,585 20,631 39,009 54,482 130,533 64,169 102,005 65,617 230,282 600,000 114,382 92,759 103,419 168,202 109,953 206,129 300,000 184,045 167,775 230,262 177,067 127,049 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Beginning in 2003, newspaper Web site advertising in the United States is included in both the newspaper and Internet segments but is counted only once in the overall total. Prior to 2003, newspaper Web site advertising in the U.S. is included only in the Internet segment. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Share of internet adspend (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 North America 4.74 5.00 5.32 6.01 7.18 8.89 9.71 10.54 Western Europe 1.44 1.98 2.80 4.11 5.46 6.72 8.02 9.41 Central & Eastern Europe 0.28 0.38 0.69 0.93 1.31 1.61 1.98 2.51 Asia Pacific 1.57 2.09 3.00 4.39 5.60 6.64 7.43 7.95 Latin America 0.04 0.57 0.69 0.80 0.85 0.89 0.93 0.97 World 2.84 3.21 3.75 4.64 5.71 6.95 7.74 8.50 Source: Zenith Optimedia 16
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Global media revenues market digital music. PwC projects the Internet market will grow from US$6.6 billion in Double-digit growth is the balliwick of 2001 to US$16.9 billion in 2006, and will digital media, while traditional media are reach US$ 28.6 billion in 2010, which is growing at a significantly slower pace. It’s more than fourfold expansion in 10 years. important to note that traditional media, led The video game market is projected to by newspapers, television and radio, still double from US$2.6 million to US$4.5 command the vast majority of the media million in 2010. Meanwhile, traditional market revenues, worldwide. media markets such as newspapers, The global media revenues market has grown magazine, cable, radio and book publishing steadily each year from US$ 1.1 trillion in are growing at single-digital compounded 2001 to a projected US$ 1.8 trillion in 2010. In annual growth rates (CAGR). ten years, the global media market will grow a According to the PwC in 2006, the Internet projected 28.3 percent, according to advertising and access spending market has PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment the highest CAGR from 2006 to 2010, of and Media Overview 2006-2010. 12.9 percent. Following Internet are video The fastest-growing media markets are games (11.4 percent) and TV distribution decidedly digital, particularly Internet and (8.3 percent), and separated from TV entertainment-oriented, including video network, broadcast and cable, which is games, filmed entertainment cinema and projected to grow at a 6.6 percent rate. Global media market, by media: 2006-2010 CAGR Video games Magazine publishing % Recorded music Book publishing Radio/out-of-home advertising TV distribution 15 Filmed entertainement Newspapers publishing Internet advertising and access spending TV networks broadcast and cable 12 12.9 11,4 9 8.3 6 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.3 3 3.6 2.9 3.1 0 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 17
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Global advertising spending Global ad spending growth % by medium, 2006-2009 According to Zenith Optimedia, TV, 80 newspapers and magazines are still the Top 3 70 Total 74.55 media for adspend, while the Internet is by far Newspapers 60 Magazines the fastest growing recipient of adspend, with TV a projected growth rate of 75 percent from 50 Radio 2005 to 2009. 40 Cinema Outdoor 30 According to Zenith Optimedia, global Internet 20 25.39 24.08 advertising spend is estimated to grow 23.9 16.89 percent from 2005 to 2009, from US$399.9 10 13.27 15.03 11.58 9.53 billion to US$495.4 billion. 0 Source: Zenith Optimedia Internet advertising spending is growing fastest, at an estimated 75 percent rate from US$ 18.7 billion in 2005 to an estimated US$ Advertising spending worldwide, 42.7 billion in 2009. Zenith has forecasted that by media, 2005-2009 cinema and outdoor will grow 25 percent, TV Internet while newspaper, radio, and magazine ad Newspapers Outdoor/Others Magazines Cinema spend are projected to grow less than 14 Radio percent each. % of total adspending In terms of the media composition of total ad 40 37.8 37.2 spending, TV, newspapers, and magazines 35 remain the top three media for ad spending 30 29.8 27.3 globally, but their percentages will slip slightly 25 from 2005 to 2009. The Internet is projected to 20 surpass radio and outdoor/others in 2008 in ad 15 13.3 spend. Radio and outdoor used to be number 12,5 10 8.6 8.6 four and number five; respectively. Ad 5.4 8.0 5.9 5 spending on cinema has been always a niche 4.7 0 0.4 0.5 market compared with other media. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 Advertising spending worldwide, by media, 2005-2009 Cinema Radio TV Internet Magazines Outdoor/Others Newspapers US$ millions 2,272 500,000 42,685 29,126 1,697 39,548 400,000 18,712 21,769 62,078 34,348 300,000 52,993 135,228 119,178 200,000 184,502 151,187 100,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Currency conversion at 2005 average Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 18
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Advertising spending in North America (US$ millions) 250,000 Cinema Internet Outdoor/Others 699 200,000 Radio 21,680 Magazines Newspapers 9,076 TV 23,792 150,000 29,458 57,243 100 100,000 3,486 12,087 12,457 37,323 63,740 50,000 37,206 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Zenith Optimedia Advertising spending in North America North America ad spending growth % by medium, 2006-2009 TV and newspapers are still the biggest 80 adspend beneficiaries, but are threatened by Total 70 the fast-growing Internet, cinema and outdoor. Newspapers 60 Magazines 64.86 In North America, advertising spending has 50 TV Radio 52.09 steadily grown every year, except between 40 Cinema 2001 to 2003, when ad spending was stagnant, Outdoor 36.52 due to the impact on the world economy of 30 Internet events surrounding 9/11, according to Zenith 20 Optimedia. 10 12.29 16.13 7.85 5 4.53 While TV, newspapers, and magazines sit atop 0 Source: Zenith Optimedia the North American market for advertising spending and will do so for years to come, they are now slow-growth markets. Where huge increases are expected in Internet, cinema and outdoor advertising between now and the end of the decade, newspapers and TV in North America are growing at only a 5 percent and 4.3 percent rate, respectively. Meanwhile, Internet, cinema, and outdoor are projected to grow at rates of 65 percent, 52 percent, and 37 percent, respectively. 19
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Advertising spending in U.S. (US$ millions) Out-of-home TV distribution Radio Newspapers 9,400 Internet TV networks broadcast and cable 24,695 Magazines 200,000 6,840 25,500 20,760 29,230 5,193 15,550 150,000 17,861 24,550 37,160 7,210 32,510 22,325 100,000 58,700 25,438 51,160 44,304 50,000 51,960 39,850 26,962 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Beginning in 2003, newspaper Web site advertising in the United States is included in both the newspaper and Internet segments but is counted only once in the overall total. Prior to 2003, newspaper Web site advertising in the U.S. is included only in the Internet segment. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Advertising spending Advertising spending in U.S.: in the United States 2006-2010 CAGR Out-of-home TV distribution The ad spending statistics projected from Radio Newspapers PricewaterhouseCoopers tell a slightly Internet TV networks broadcast and cable different story than those from Zenith. % Magazines 20 Advertising spending in United States has grown from US$149.3 million in 2001 to 15 US$230.4 million in 2010, a growth of 15.2 54.35 percent in ten years. From 2006 to 2010, 10 the overall U.S. advertising spending CAGR is 8.3 5 7.1 5.4 percent. 4.3 4.5 4.1 3.5 In terms of ad spending for each medium, 0 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates PwC found that in 2001, newspapers were the number one ad spending medium in the U.S., and almost double that of number two, TV networks, broadcast and cable. 2007 advertising spending PwC projects, however, that in 2010, TV % growth in U.S. 20 networks, broadcast and cable will have 17.9 almost caught up in adspend, and if the 15 trajectories continue, will overtake newspapers a few years later. Meanwhile, 10 the Internet has grown from a niche medium (US$7.2 billion in 2001) to a major player 5 5.8 (US$25.5 billion in 2010), an increase of 2.7 2.3 more than threefold. 0 Print Online Events Other media media media -3.5 including PR -5 TV, radio & Source: Outsell’s Advertising other media Tracking Database 20
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Advertising spending in Canada 2007 U.S. advertising spending In Canada, the Internet is experiencing an forecast almost 20 percent compounded annual growth Other media including PR 14.6% rate in adspend. TV networks and newspapers still remain the main players. TV, radio and other media Print media 5.2% 40.1% According to the Global Entertainment and Media Overview from PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2006, advertising spending in Canada will grow from US$6 Events billion in 2001 to a projected US$8.9 billion 19.7% in 2010, a 47.3 percent growth in ten years. TV networks, newspapers, and radio are still the top three ad spending media. Online media 20.4% Source: Outsell’s Advertising Tracking Database Advertising spending in Canada: 2007 U.S. ADVERTISING SPENDING 2006-2010 CAGR FORECAST Out-of-home Magazines Radio Newspapers According to Outsell’s Advertising Tracking % Internet TV networks broadcast and cable Database 2007, Print Media is forecasted as 20 the leader in the U.S. with 40 percent of 18.8 15 overall ad spending; however, its growth rate is only 2.7 percent in 2007. 10 5 6.6 4.7 3.8 2.9 2.5 0 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Advertising spending in Canada (US$ millions) 10,000 Out-of-home Radio 363 Internet Magazines 1,312 8,000 Newspapers TV networks broadcast and cable 821 232 854 6,000 875 2,488 80 673 4,000 2,064 3,053 2,000 2,112 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 21
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER However, Internet ad spend is projected to In terms of 2006-2010 CAGR in EMEA, grow tenfold between 2001 and 2010, from Internet will exert the most aggressive growth, US$ 80 million in 2001 to US$ 821 million in with a 21.2 percent CAGR, according to PwC. 2010. Meanwhile, traditional media ad spend growth is slow by comparison. As one might expect, in terms of 2006-2010 CAGR, Internet is the leader, with 18.8 percent compounded growth. Meanwhile, the various print media have a sluggish growth of between 2.5 and 2.9 percent CAGR from 2006-2010. Advertising spending in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) PwC predicts that Internet spending will grow about tenfold in Europe, the Middle East and Advertising spending in EMEA: Africa, or 21.2 percent CAGR, from 2006 to 2006-2010 CAGR 2010. Despite slower growth, TV networks Out-of-home Magazines and newspapers, will remain by far the number Radio Newspapers one and number two recipients of adspend in % Internet TV networks broadcast and cable 2010. 25 20 Advertising Spending in EMEA was 21.2 US$101.4 billion in 2001, and will be 15 US$157.7 billion in 2010, with a 55.45 percent 10 growth over that ten-year period. TV networks, 5 7.4 7 newspapers and magazines will continue to be 5.7 4 3.3 the top three recipients of adspend among 0 media. Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Advertising spending in EMEA (US$ millions) 200,000 Out-of-home Radio Internet Magazines 150,000 Newspapers 11,157 TV networks broadcast and cable 8,681 14,896 8,385 24,838 6,968 1,536 7,745 100,000 6,413 21,164 5,325 44,369 19,739 38,846 36,846 50,000 53,751 41,733 31,581 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 22
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Adspend share in the EU Ad expenditures in the EU-15 saw consistent growth between1985 and 2000, hitting almost According to the Year-End Advertising 90 billion Euros in 2000. It then declined Expenditure Statistics from World Advertising between 2001 and 2003, during the worldwide Research Center (WARC), 2006, newspaper advertising downturn, and has yet to hit that adspend in the top 15 markets in the European level again. Union was almost 50 percent of total adspend in 1985, while magazines ranked second. In 1990, TV adspend supplanted magazines and is expected to overtake newspapers this year. Meanwhile, adspend for a variety of other media (including directories, radio, outdoor, cinema, and Internet) has experienced steady growth since 1999. Percentage share of adspend by medium in the EU-15, 1985-2005 % share 50 Newspapers Magazines TV Other media* 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 * Other Media” includes directories, radio, outdoor, cinema, and internet advertising. Direct mail Expenditure is not included. Source: World Advertising Research Center, Year End Advertising Expenditure Statistics, Apr 2006 Advertising Expenditure Trend in the EU-15, 1985-2005 % change (at constant 2000 prices) Euro (2000) m 14 100,000 % change Euro (2000) m 12 90,000 10 80,000 8 70,000 6 60,000 4 50,000 2 40,000 0 30,000 -2 -4 20,000 -6 10,000 -8 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: World Advertising Research Center, Year End Advertising Expenditure Statistics, Apr 2006 23
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Advertising spending Advertising spending in Asia Pacific in Western Europe Media adspend in Asia Pacific will expand 90 In Western Europe, the Internet has the percent from 1995 to 2009, according to Zenith greatest growth potential with a 94.33 Optimedia. The huge increase will be led by projected percent growth rate, according to Internet and cinema adspend increases of 72 percent Zenith Optimedia projections for 2006 to and 41 percent, respectively. It projects magazine 2000. Other media will grow at a rate of about adspend will see a growth rate of only 8 percent. 10 percent, including the top three media: TV, Advertising spending in Asia fell or flattened newspapers, and magazines, according to the twice in the last decade, mostly because of the projections. Asian Currency Crisis in 1997 and 9/11 in In Western Europe, advertising spending will 2001. However, it is estimated that in 2009 the grow from US$66.8 billion in 1995 to advertising spending will achieve US$109.4 US$114.4 billion in 2009. billion, which represents a 90 percent growth from 1995. TV and newspapers are the Top Although TV, newspapers and magazines still two recipients of advertising spent in Asia garner the most adspend, their growth rates are slowing. TV remains the fastest growing of the these three, and Zenith forecasts that TV will Western Europe ad spending growth overtake newspapers to become the top % by medium, 2006-2009 advertising medium in Western Europe, this 100 year. Meanwhile, the Internet is the most Total 94.33 dramatically growing media in the region, and 80 Newspapers Magazines is estimated to reach US$10.8 billion in TV adspend by 2009. 60 Radio Cinema Zenith Optimedia estimates that Internet ad 40 Outdoor spending CAGR will far exceed that of any Internet other media in Western Europe, with a 20 projected 94.33 percent growth rates from 12.7 9.79 10.42 2006 to 2009. Meanwhile other media have 6.49 6.11 9.12 6 0 growth rates near 10 percent or lower Source: Zenith Optimedia Advertising spending in Western Europe (US$ millions) 140,000 Cinema Internet 120,000 Radio 927 Outdoor/Others 10,849 Magazines 100,000 6,263 Newspapers 7,474 TV 19,208 80,000 515 3,269 34,349 60,000 3,728 13,576 40,000 26,762 35,371 20,000 18,911 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Zenith Optimedia 24
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Pacific over the last 15 years, far ahead of any Advertising spending other medium. in Latin America Between 2006 to 2009, Zenith expects strong overall advertising growth in Asia Pacific, led TV and newspapers still take the lead for Ad by a 72 percent jump in Internet spending and Spending, while Internet emerges with a 23.1 a 41 percent rise in cinema spending. Only percent CAGR from 2006 to 2010. magazine adspend looks to be in single digits, with 8.34 percent growth. According to PwC, advertising spending in Latin America will grow from US$9.4 billion Internet spending is projected to grow from nothing in 2001 to US$20.5 billion in 2010. TV in 1995 to US$8.7 billion in 2009. Advertising networks, and newspapers are the two largest spending on TV will double from US$23.4 billion recipients of advertising between 2001 and to US$48 billion in 2009. Cinema spending also 2010, with radio expected to supplant is predicted to surge, reaching US$278 million magazines as the third largest advertising by 2009, though cinema still represents only a medium in the region. But Internet advertising small percentage of overall adspend. will still be a niche market in 2010, though it Asia Pacific ad spending growth Advertising spending % by medium, 2006-2009 in Latin America: 2006-2010 CAGR 80 Out-of-home Magazines Total 70 71.69 Radio Newspapers Newspapers % Internet TV networks broadcast and cable 60 Magazines TV 25 50 Radio 23.1 20 40 Cinema 41.06 Outdoor 15 30 Internet 20 10 20.87 21.11 18.78 20.31 10.8 10 14.13 5 8.3 8.1 7.6 6.8 8.34 0 0 Source: Zenith Optimedia Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Advertising spending in Asia Pacific (US$ millions) 120,000 Cinema 278 Internet 8,700 100,000 Radio 5,364 Magazines 6,829 Outdoor/Others 10,186 80,000 Newspapers TV 30,049 60,000 52 3,228 4,701 7,191 48,036 40,000 19,018 20,000 23,382 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Zenith Optimedia 25
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Advertising spending in Latin America (US$ millions) 25,000 Out-of-home Radio 512 Internet 356 20,000 Magazines 1,922 Newspapers TV networks broadcast and cable 1,498 240 264 4,920 15,000 1,582 1,127 72 3,821 11,299 10,000 188 761 874 2,905 7,751 5,000 4,558 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates will grow from nothing to US$512 million in Adspend change in EU, USA this decade, and PwC expects it has a bright and Japan future. The European Union, USA and Japan are the While growth in Internet advertising is largest advertising markets in the world. Japan expected to be slower in Latin America than the fastest growing advertising market in the the rest of the world between 2006 and 2010, world in the 1980s, saw advertising slow or it will still outstrip other media in the region, drop several times since 1990, due to with an expected growth rate of 23.1 percent. worldwide recession, the Asian currency crisis TV networks will follow with a 10.8 percent and the aftereffects of the 9/11 attacks. Japan CAGR, while other media should see growth also suffered from low economic growth for rates between 6 percent and 9 percent. much of this period. Each region has entered a revival phase after emerging from the fallout of the advertising crisis of 2001 to 2003. Percentage change in adspend in EU, USA and Japan, 1985-2005 50 Annual % change EU-15 Japan US 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: World Advertising Research Center, Year End Advertising Expenditure Statistics, Apr 2006 26
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Ad spending growth rate Online ad spending growth rate % 2006-2009 % 2006-2009 60 200 194.03 50 53.80 150 40 30 100 94.33 20 74.55 20.87 50 64.86 71.69 17.28 10 12.29 12.85 13.52 29.68 0 0 North Western Central Asia Latin Total North Western Central Asia Latin World America Europe & Eastern Pacific America America Europe & Eastern Pacific America Europe Europe Source: Zenith Optimedia Source: Zenith Optimedia Conclusion According to Zenith Optimedia, the Central & Ad spending growth rate, Eastern Europe region should see the fastest by medium, 2006-2009 % growth in ad spending from 2006 to 2009, with 250 an expected growth rate of 53.8 percent. North North America Western Europe America and Western Europe, however, have 200 Asia Pacific less potential for adspend growth, mainly due to their highly developed media markets. 150 The fastest growing category in every market will 100 be Internet advertising. In the Asia Pacific region, cinema, newspapers, TV, outdoor and radio will 50 also see high growth rates. In North America, magazines, cinema and outdoor are growing 0 steadily. As for Western Europe, Internet is the t s es o rs a TV ne er di em pe in th Ra er az a in only media with an accelerated growth potential. /O t sp In C ag or ew M do N Internet spending, though, will remain a small ut O Source: Zenith Optimedia portion of all ad spending in the near term. According to the Advertising Expenditure Statistics from Zenith Optimedia, 2006, Central and Eastern Europe will see the Ad spending growth rate greatest growth for Online adspend from 2006 by medium, 2006-2009 to 2009, with almost 200 percent growth. North America Asia Pacific Western Europe, Asia Pacific and North % Western Europe Latin America 45 Central & Eastern Europe World America have relatively lower growth around 40 60 percent to 90 percent. This may be because 35 these regions were quicker to develop Internet 30 infrastructure. 25 20 In terms of the Internet adspend share, the 15 Internet is expected to take a larger portion of 10 the adspend pie as time goes on. Globally, the 5 Internet adspend makes up 8.5 percent of 0 overall adspend in 2009, according to Zenith. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Zenith Optimedia In North America and Western Europe, the Internet advertising share exceeds the world total, a reflection of their leader statuses Europe are building from much smaller bases, among advertising spend online. On the other and Internet adspend will make for a very hand, Latin America and Central & Eastern small part of overall advertising. 27
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Global advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Canada 4 466 4 614 4 844 5 357 5 842 6 045 6 245 6 137 USA 92 059 98 046 104 852 112 038 120 743 139 935 156 667 147 246 N. America 96 525 102 660 109 696 117 395 126 585 145 980 162 912 153 383 Austria 1 383 1 446 1 511 1 669 1 856 2 145 2 356 2 377 Belgium 1 303 1 391 1 423 1 623 1 905 2 086 2 265 2 193 Denmark 1 419 1 561 1 632 1 773 1 866 1 757 1 841 1 841 Finland 859 957 985 1 089 1 210 1 298 1 402 1 330 France 8 703 9 054 9 296 9 645 10 435 11 512 12 766 12 109 Germany 18 702 19 770 20 076 20 812 21 835 23 017 24 867 22 969 Ireland 389 428 474 562 623 708 967 1 088 Italy 5 626 5 939 6 415 7 043 7 803 8 740 10 039 9 707 Netherlands 2 919 3 143 3 475 3 770 4 195 4 471 4 887 4 706 Norway 742 1 214 1 444 1 585 1 690 1 831 2 022 2 006 Portugal 446 525 627 754 897 1 082 1 206 1 131 Spain 4 251 4 396 4 550 4 835 5 398 6 275 7 034 6 800 Sweden 1 640 1 753 1 752 1 897 2 105 2 170 2 471 2 201 Switzerland 2 600 2 801 2 735 2 736 2 888 3 210 3 497 3 350 UK 11 724 12 715 13 708 15 109 16 578 17 594 19 484 18 639 Western Europe 62 705 67 094 70 102 74 902 81 283 87 898 97 102 92 448 Bulgaria – 45 38 25 40 58 85 119 Czech Rep. 316 338 431 613 821 1 010 1 176 1 370 Estonia 9 22 33 45 56 51 54 60 Greece 1 106 1 575 1 115 1 311 1 514 1 609 1 893 1 965 Hungary 191 241 355 513 728 867 1 124 1 337 Latvia 7 24 39 68 44 50 53 61 Lithuania – 33 73 113 167 154 137 197 Poland 296 420 635 1 052 1 541 2 109 2 400 2 962 Romania 45 57 92 115 215 125 128 118 Russia 700 800 1 050 1 400 1 300 573 826 1 336 Slovakia 45 52 78 164 237 260 301 408 Slovenia 54 63 91 113 166 212 230 250 Turkey 477 638 727 961 924 941 1 070 551 C & E Europe 3 247 4 309 4 756 6 493 7 754 8 018 9 476 10 732 Australia 4 136 4 519 4 549 5 018 5 394 5 632 6 153 5 856 China 1 582 2 028 2 561 3 269 3 755 4 201 4 820 5 174 Hong Kong 1 823 1 943 2 184 2 623 2 714 3 094 1 546 1 633 India 747 886 1 072 1 276 1 217 1 366 1 623 1 868 Indonesia 236 344 427 525 388 569 799 991 Japan 35 180 36 966 39 609 41 035 39 422 38 642 41 605 40 912 Malaysia 433 534 646 699 578 674 820 844 New Zealand 1 078 1 152 1 186 1 199 1 191 1 243 1 300 1 303 Philippines 185 468 605 772 825 951 1 115 1 267 Singapore 585 632 682 765 712 731 901 926 South Korea 3 770 4 471 5 268 5 972 4 263 5 342 6 649 6 566 Taiwan 2 273 2 516 1 345 1 587 2 008 1 844 1 858 2 010 Thailand 898 1 050 1 178 1 135 882 1 187 1 275 1 495 Vietnam 34 63 101 111 109 116 131 147 Asia Pacific 52 960 57 572 61 412 65 985 63 458 65 590 70 595 70 991 Argentina 3 109 2 899 3 088 3 478 3 605 3 233 2 675 2 569 Brazil 3 486 4 965 5 887 6 616 6 417 4 295 5 365 3 968 Chile 370 441 541 588 548 527 559 548 Colombia 529 713 891 972 1 111 1 024 1 031 1 075 Mexico 2 042 1 345 1 753 2 523 2 662 2 955 3 449 3 562 Panama 114 107 126 135 153 180 173 152 Peru 271 345 300 335 294 233 198 184 Puerto Rico 788 899 1 039 1 263 1 372 1 563 1 638 1 810 Uruguay 162 144 162 172 181 171 149 100 Venezuela 303 446 406 428 617 661 733 778 Lat. America 11 174 12 304 14 192 16 510 16 960 14 842 15 970 14 745 Bahrain – – – – – – – – Egypt 88 105 120 167 219 238 240 289 Israel 637 742 800 875 858 945 1 083 801 Kuwait 109 120 153 167 178 182 212 245 Oman – 21 24 27 30 27 28 32 Qatar – – – – – – – – Saudi Arabia/ 394 418 488 641 789 856 1 006 1 333 Pan Arab South Africa 622 717 807 967 1 129 1 253 1 396 1 517 UAE 135 148 187 196 193 195 214 263 TOTAL 228 597 246 210 262 737 284 325 299 436 326 024 360 233 346 779 Source: Zenith Optimedia 28
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Global advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Canada 6 293 6 788 7 440 7 837 8 344 8 748 9 175 9 604 USA 149 756 152 282 161 487 166 235 174 838 182 080 189 460 196 086 N. America 156 049 159 070 168 927 174 072 183 182 190 828 198 634 205 690 Austria 2 316 2 382 2 519 2 659 2 803 2 970 3 111 3 225 Belgium 2 418 2 684 2 899 3 038 3 389 3 589 3 771 3 921 Denmark 1 788 1 846 1 943 2 070 2 206 2 351 2 510 2 615 Finland 1 310 1 342 1 430 1 479 1 528 1 575 1 629 1 676 France 11 876 11 907 12 448 12 670 13 068 13 494 13 822 14 236 Germany 20 904 19 875 20 129 20 369 20 764 21 096 21 383 21 756 Ireland 1 287 1 444 1 734 1 817 1 979 2 092 2 223 2 353 Italy 9 388 9 731 10 430 10 726 11 001 11 364 11 840 12 454 Netherlands 4 580 4 305 4 385 4 481 4 664 4 818 4 951 5 076 Norway 2 077 2 386 2 694 3 185 3 509 3 837 4 154 4 442 Portugal 1 031 1 054 1 128 1 163 1 164 1 193 1 228 1 270 Spain 6 744 6 928 7 650 8 272 8 751 9 225 9 752 10 365 Sweden 2 115 2 119 2 216 2 409 2 629 2 807 2 966 3 124 Switzerland 3 077 2 888 2 600 2 711 2 889 3 073 3 266 3 459 UK 18 699 19 342 20 962 21 645 21 856 22 655 23 938 25 360 Western Europe 89 611 90 233 95 168 98 696 102 199 106 138 110 543 115 334 Bulgaria 165 238 304 400 469 533 607 689 Czech Rep. 1 353 1 458 1 612 1 817 2 037 2 238 2 421 2 621 Estonia 65 72 79 91 108 128 148 167 Greece 2 200 2 330 2 550 2 744 2 904 3 034 3 169 3 313 Hungary 1 600 1 855 2 218 2 520 2 691 2 916 3 187 3 494 Latvia 72 76 87 106 119 133 148 158 Lithuania 265 290 315 318 389 430 495 559 Poland 3 097 3 447 3 846 3 970 4 749 5 443 6 006 6 546 Romania 126 154 226 307 413 536 670 801 Russia 2 210 2 890 3 910 5 010 6 516 8 389 10 639 13 525 Slovakia 452 539 767 949 1 145 1 412 1 656 1 967 Slovenia 281 314 389 433 477 524 577 634 Turkey 719 881 1 291 1 680 1 885 2 166 2 342 2 287 C & E Europe 12 603 14 543 17 593 20 345 23 903 27 883 32 064 36 762 Australia 5 969 6 527 7 175 7 693 8 048 8 473 8 934 9 069 China 6 193 7 736 8 534 9 775 11 378 13 256 16 251 18 606 Hong Kong 1 853 1 849 2 311 2 515 2 848 3 023 3 247 3 394 India 2 025 2 532 3 181 3 668 4 248 4 883 5 603 6 323 Indonesia 1 346 1 666 2 415 2 814 3 299 3 781 4 396 5 061 Japan 38 129 38 098 39 580 40 280 41 216 42 260 43 041 43 712 Malaysia 917 988 1 196 1 233 1 288 1 343 1 426 1 497 New Zealand 1 370 1 546 1 736 1 873 1 927 2 017 2 148 2 204 Philippines 1 410 1 713 2 056 2 529 2 575 3 011 3 531 4 150 Singapore 1 013 1 061 1 221 1 125 1 160 1 190 1 231 1 268 South Korea 7 578 7 894 7 386 7 679 8 074 8 330 8 516 8 685 Taiwan 2 032 2 223 1 815 1 615 1 665 1 653 1 794 1 974 Thailand 1 687 1 943 2 253 2 362 2 397 2 495 2 625 2 811 Vietnam 162 215 263 334 418 503 591 690 Asia Pacific 71 684 75 991 81 121 85 496 90 542 96 217 103 334 109 441 Argentina 504 825 1 001 1 271 1 301 1 284 1 254 1 219 Brazil 3 313 3 680 4 653 6 496 7 386 7 762 8 157 8 573 Chile 587 616 659 710 787 830 875 922 Colombia 1 018 960 1 026 1 286 1 415 1 514 1 605 1 689 Mexico 3 447 3 175 3 347 3 704 3 814 3 961 4 156 4 385 Panama 165 196 223 237 263 278 291 320 Peru 188 235 223 253 271 284 305 330 Puerto Rico 1 831 1 865 1 911 1 836 1 769 1 840 1 915 1 993 Uruguay 50 43 48 47 51 56 60 66 Venezuela 593 483 575 617 571 521 514 516 Lat. America 11 696 12 079 13 667 16 457 17 629 18 330 19 130 20 013 Bahrain – – – 117 117 119 120 122 Egypt 335 328 452 568 837 1 092 1 457 1 821 Israel 803 723 766 804 806 836 863 899 Kuwait 291 304 335 395 500 571 651 743 Oman 43 53 56 81 89 92 94 98 Qatar – – – 94 121 108 116 114 Saudi Arabia/ 1 629 1 903 2 462 2 823 3 924 4 310 4 737 5 214 Pan Arab South Africa 1 811 2 054 2 414 2 685 2 989 3 326 3 659 4 009 UAE 352 453 640 974 1 333 1 471 1 675 1 881 TOTAL 346 908 357 735 383 600 403 607 428 171 451 322 477 080 502 141 Source: Zenith Optimedia 29
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER World advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) Major Media (1) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 North America 168 927 174 072 183 182 190 828 198 634 205 690 Western Europe (2) 94 636 98 111 101 544 105 391 109 706 114 442 Asia/Pacific 81 121 85 496 90 542 96 217 103 334 109 441 C & E Europe (3) 20 220 23 336 27 210 31 455 35 994 41 006 Latin America (4) 15 476 18 401 19 732 20 568 21 570 22 647 Africa/M. East/ROW (5) 9 009 10 434 12 812 14 188 15 863 17 588 World 389 388 409 849 435 022 458 648 485 101 510 815 Year-on-year growth (%) (at current prices) Major Media 04v03 05v04 06v05 07v06 08v07 09v08 North America 6,2 3,0 5,2 4,2 4,1 3,6 Western Europe 5,5 3,7 3,5 3,8 4,1 4,3 Asia/Pacific 6,8 5,4 5,9 6,3 7,4 5,9 C & E Europe 23,0 15,4 16,6 15,6 14,4 13,9 Latin America 12,7 18,9 7,2 4,2 4,9 5,0 Africa/M. East/ROW 20,2 15,8 22,8 10,7 11,8 10,9 World 7,4 5,3 6,1 5,4 5,8 5,3 Year-on-year growth (%) (at constant prices) Major Media 04v03 05v04 06v05 07v06 08v07 09v08 North America 3,4 -0,3 1,6 1,3 1,3 0,9 Western Europe 3,3 1,4 1,2 1,5 1,7 1,9 Asia/Pacific 5,1 3,8 3,7 4,1 5,1 3,6 C & E Europe - - - - - - Latin America - - - - - - Africa/M. East/ROW - - - - - - World 3,8 1,1 2,0 2,0 2,4 1,8 (1) TV, Print, Radio, Cinema, Outdoor, Internet (2) These totals exclude the 'other' category in Denmark (3) C & E Europe includes the 13 countries detailed in this report plus three smaller countries. All 16 are listed in the Central & Eastern Europe summary. (4) Latin America includes the 10 countries detailed in this report plus 11 smaller countries. All 21 are listed in the Latin America summary. (5) ROW includes the nine countries detailed in this report plus 24 smaller countries. All 33 are listed in the Rest of World summary. Source: Zenith Optimedia 30
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS North America advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) Total Newspapers Magazines TV Radio Cinema Outdoor Internet 1995 102 660 37 323 12 457 37 206 12 087 0 3 486 100 1996 109 696 39 187 13 303 40 107 13 065 0 3 733 300 1997 117 395 41 503 14 085 42 444 14 500 0 3 948 914 1998 126 585 43 934 14 945 45 379 16 178 0 4 208 1 941 1999 145 980 46 350 21 573 49 268 19 377 0 4 765 4 646 2000 162 912 51 505 24 402 54 128 21 656 0 5 129 6 091 2001 153 383 48 510 21 986 51 485 19 675 0 5 046 6 680 2002 156 049 48 067 21 363 53 454 20 324 275 5 170 7 395 2003 159 070 49 007 22 215 53 704 20 560 303 5 327 7 953 2004 168 927 51 451 23 290 57 949 21 362 339 5 547 8 989 2005 174 072 53 211 24 451 57 875 21 669 400 6 010 10 455 2006 183 182 54 516 25 367 60 978 22 061 460 6 650 13 150 2007 190 828 55 588 26 584 61 339 22 452 529 7 366 16 970 2008 198 634 56 413 27 943 63 366 22 853 608 8 171 19 280 2009 205 690 57 243 29 458 63 740 23 792 699 9 079 21 680 Year-on-year % change at current prices 96 v 95 6,9 5,0 6,8 7,8 8,1 – 7,1 200,0 97 v 96 7,0 5,9 5,9 5,8 11,0 – 5,8 204,8 98 v 97 7,8 5,9 6,1 6,9 11,6 – 6,6 112,3 99 v 98 15,3 5,5 44,3 8,6 19,8 – 13,3 139,4 00 v 99 11,6 11,1 13,1 9,9 11,8 – 7,6 31,1 01 v 00 -5,8 -5,8 -9,9 -4,9 -9,1 – -1,6 9,7 02 v 01 1,7 -0,9 -2,8 3,8 3,3 – 2,5 10,7 03 v 02 1,9 2,0 4,0 0,5 1,2 10,0 3,0 7,5 04 v 03 6,2 5,0 4,8 7,9 3,9 12,0 4,1 13,0 05 v 04 3,0 3,4 5,0 -0,1 1,4 18,0 8,4 16,3 06 v 05 5,2 2,5 3,7 5,4 1,8 15,0 10,7 25,8 07 v 06 4,2 2,0 4,8 0,6 1,8 15,0 10,8 29,0 08 v 07 4,1 1,5 5,1 3,3 1,8 15,0 10,9 13,6 09 v 08 3,6 1,5 5,4 0,6 4,1 15,0 11,1 12,4 Year-on-year % change at constant prices 96 v 95 3,9 2,1 3,8 4,8 5,1 – 4,1 191,5 97 v 96 4,6 3,5 3,5 3,4 8,5 – 3,4 197,7 98 v 97 6,1 4,2 4,4 5,2 9,8 – 4,9 108,8 99 v 98 13,0 3,4 41,4 6,4 17,3 – 10,9 134,5 00 v 99 8,0 7,5 9,4 6,3 8,1 – 4,1 26,8 01 v 00 -8,4 -8,4 -12,4 -7,5 -11,6 – -4,3 6,7 02 v 01 0,1 -2,5 -4,4 2,1 1,6 – 0,8 8,9 03 v 02 -0,3 -0,3 1,7 -1,7 -1,1 7,6 0,8 5,2 04 v 03 3,4 2,3 2,1 5,1 1,2 9,1 1,4 10,1 05 v 04 -0,3 0,1 1,6 -3,3 -1,8 14,1 4,9 12,6 06 v 05 1,6 -1,0 0,2 1,8 -1,7 11,0 6,9 21,5 07 v 06 1,3 -0,9 1,9 -2,2 -1,0 11,8 7,7 25,5 08 v 07 1,3 -1,2 2,3 0,5 -0,9 11,9 7,9 10,6 09 v 08 0,9 -1,2 2,7 -2,0 1,4 12,0 8,2 9,6 Source: Zenith Optimedia 31
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Western Europe advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) Total Newspapers Magazines TV Radio Cinema Outdoor Internet 1995 66 760 26 762 13 576 18 911 3 269 515 3 728 0 1996 69 755 27 505 14 028 20 299 3 459 531 3 932 1 1997 74 512 28 048 15 760 22 174 3 698 586 4 217 29 1998 80 870 30 240 16 872 24 279 4 029 653 4 669 128 1999 87 506 32 026 18 032 26 582 4 536 739 5 111 480 2000 96 659 35 102 19 298 29 388 5 048 799 5 872 1 152 2001 91 988 32 832 18 704 27 734 4 760 829 5 979 1 150 2002 89 131 31 170 17 659 27 548 4 708 845 5 910 1 291 2003 89 735 30 637 17 266 28 133 4 958 852 6 104 1 785 2004 94 636 31 456 17 593 30 467 5 366 863 6 226 2 664 2005 98 111 31 710 17 839 31 536 5 594 861 6 510 4 061 2006 101 544 32 257 18 102 32 218 5 740 874 6 769 5 583 2007 105 391 32 752 18 440 33 305 5 899 893 6 974 7 129 2008 109 706 33 502 18 798 34 343 6 080 909 7 208 8 865 2009 114 442 34 349 19 208 35 371 6 263 927 7 474 10 849 Year-on-year % change at current prices 96 v 95 4,5 2,8 3,3 7,3 5,8 3,1 5,5 – 97 v 96 6,8 2,0 12,3 9,2 6,9 10,2 7,3 2 838,5 98 v 97 8,5 7,8 7,1 9,5 9,0 11,5 10,7 338,9 99 v 98 8,2 5,9 6,9 9,5 12,6 13,3 9,5 274,0 00 v 99 10,5 9,6 7,0 10,6 11,3 8,1 14,9 140,0 01 v 00 -4,8 -6,5 -3,1 -5,6 -5,7 3,7 1,8 -0,2 02 v 01 -3,1 -5,1 -5,6 -0,7 -1,1 2,0 -1,2 12,3 03 v 02 0,7 -1,7 -2,2 2,1 5,3 0,8 3,3 38,3 04 v 03 5,5 2,7 1,9 8,3 8,2 1,2 2,0 49,2 05 v 04 3,7 0,8 1,4 3,5 4,2 -0,2 4,6 52,4 06 v 05 3,5 1,7 1,5 2,2 2,6 1,6 4,0 37,5 07 v 06 3,8 1,5 1,9 3,4 2,8 2,1 3,0 27,7 08 v 07 4,1 2,3 1,9 3,1 3,1 1,8 3,4 24,4 09 v 08 4,3 2,5 2,2 3,0 3,0 2,0 3,7 22,4 Year-on-year % change at constant prices 96 v 95 2,5 1,0 1,5 4,9 3,7 1,1 3,6 – 97 v 96 4,7 0,0 9,9 6,9 5,0 8,1 5,5 2 881,7 98 v 97 6,9 6,1 5,6 7,6 7,4 9,9 9,3 331,6 99 v 98 7,0 4,7 5,8 8,1 11,2 12,1 8,3 270,1 00 v 99 8,0 7,2 4,8 7,9 8,7 5,8 12,5 136,2 01 v 00 -7,0 -8,5 -5,2 -7,9 -7,9 1,6 -0,3 -2,5 02 v 01 -4,9 -6,7 -7,3 -2,6 -3,1 0,3 -3,0 10,2 03 v 02 -1,4 -3,6 -4,1 -0,1 3,0 -1,4 1,2 35,8 04 v 03 3,3 0,7 -0,1 6,0 6,0 -1,0 -0,1 46,3 05 v 04 1,4 -1,3 -0,7 1,2 1,9 -2,5 2,3 49,0 06 v 05 1,2 -0,4 -0,6 -0,2 0,3 -0,6 1,7 34,5 07 v 06 1,5 -0,7 -0,4 1,0 0,5 -0,1 0,8 24,8 08 v 07 1,7 -0,1 -0,3 0,8 0,8 -0,5 1,1 21,5 09 v 08 1,9 0,0 -0,2 0,6 0,6 -0,4 1,4 19,6 Source: Zenith Optimedia 32
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Asia Pacific advertising expenditure (US$ million at current prices) Total Newspapers Magazines TV Radio Cinema Outdoor Internet 1995 57 572 19 018 4 701 23 382 3 228 52 7 191 0 1996 61 412 19 531 5 108 25 917 3 361 55 7 425 15 1997 65 985 21 580 5 617 27 640 3 473 73 7 547 54 1998 63 458 20 227 5 415 27 341 3 344 82 6 946 103 1999 65 590 21 327 5 544 28 174 3 369 84 6 765 328 2000 70 595 23 224 5 729 30 171 3 592 98 7 002 780 2001 70 991 22 938 5 807 30 556 3 659 93 7 050 887 2002 71 684 22 544 5 831 31 521 3 693 94 6 875 1 127 2003 75 991 23 791 6 024 33 443 3 850 109 7 189 1 585 2004 81 121 24 631 5 889 36 011 4 089 194 7 874 2 434 2005 85 496 25 144 6 166 37 993 4 287 190 7 964 3 751 2006 90 542 26 329 6 304 39 662 4 516 197 8 466 5 067 2007 96 217 27 459 6 463 41 919 4 752 208 9 024 6 391 2008 103 334 28 810 6 669 45 190 5 113 235 9 641 7 676 2009 109 441 30 049 6 829 48 036 5 364 278 10 186 8 700 Year-on-year % change at current prices 96 v 95 6,7 2,7 8,7 10,8 4,1 6,0 3,3 – 97 v 96 7,4 10,5 10,0 6,6 3,3 32,9 1,6 275,0 98 v 97 -3,8 -6,3 -3,6 -1,1 -3,7 12,4 -8,0 89,9 99 v 98 3,4 5,4 2,4 3,0 0,7 2,1 -2,6 217,3 00 v 99 7,6 8,9 3,3 7,1 6,6 16,7 3,5 137,7 01 v 00 0,6 -1,2 1,4 1,3 1,9 -4,7 0,7 13,7 02 v 01 1,0 -1,7 0,4 3,2 0,9 1,2 -2,5 27,0 03 v 02 6,0 5,5 3,3 6,1 4,3 16,1 4,6 40,7 04 v 03 6,8 3,5 -2,2 7,7 6,2 77,2 9,5 53,6 05 v 04 5,4 2,1 4,7 5,5 4,8 -1,8 1,1 54,1 06 v 05 5,9 4,7 2,2 4,4 5,4 3,6 6,3 35,1 07 v 06 6,3 4,3 2,5 5,7 5,2 5,5 6,6 26,1 08 v 07 7,4 4,9 3,2 7,8 7,6 12,9 6,8 20,1 09 v 08 5,9 4,3 2,4 6,3 4,9 18,5 5,6 13,3 Year-on-year % change at constant prices 95 v 94 7,4 6,6 7,1 9,5 8,4 5,4 3,1 – 96 v 95 5,1 0,6 7,4 9,6 2,3 2,1 2,2 – 97 v 96 5,5 8,9 8,0 4,5 1,0 27,2 -0,8 268,4 98 v 97 -6,9 -9,6 -5,6 -4,1 -6,4 9,7 -11,4 88,9 99 v 98 3,8 5,8 2,7 3,6 1,5 3,3 -2,8 243,8 00 v 99 7,8 8,6 3,8 7,6 6,4 13,6 3,8 133,5 01 v 00 -0,2 -2,4 1,7 0,6 0,9 -8,2 0,5 12,0 02 v 01 1,1 -1,9 0,4 3,5 0,7 -0,4 -2,2 28,0 03 v 02 5,3 4,6 2,9 5,4 3,4 13,8 4,4 39,7 04 v 03 5,1 1,7 -3,2 6,1 4,4 73,3 8,2 52,1 05 v 04 3,8 0,4 3,7 3,8 2,8 -5,2 0,3 53,1 06 v 05 3,7 2,4 0,6 2,0 2,8 -0,8 4,9 33,6 07 v 06 4,1 1,9 0,8 3,4 2,8 1,7 4,8 24,5 08 v 07 5,1 2,5 1,4 5,3 5,0 8,8 5,0 18,6 09 v 08 3,6 1,9 0,6 3,7 2,3 13,7 3,8 12,1 Source: Zenith Optimedia 33
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Online advertising spend (US$ millions at current prices) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Canada – – – 8 21 46 91 80 USA – 100 300 906 1 920 4 600 6 000 6 600 N. America – 100 300 914 1 941 4 646 6 091 6 680 Austria – – – – – – – – Belgium – – – – 2 6 16 14 Denmark – – – – – – – 52 Finland – – 1 2 5 8 15 19 France – – – 6 21 98 179 143 Germany – – – – 17 96 191 230 Ireland – – – – – – 2 4 Italy – – – – 8 37 172 133 Netherlands – – – – – 25 47 42 Norway – – – – – 26 47 36 Portugal – – – – 5 5 6 7 Spain – – – – 6 19 66 64 Sweden – – – 8 28 67 139 120 Switzerland – – – – 5 10 20 15 UK – – – 13 31 84 251 271 Western Europe – – 1 29 128 480 1 152 1 150 Bulgaria – – – – – – – – Czech Rep. – – – – – 2 4 8 Estonia – – – – 0 0 1 1 Greece – – – – – – – – Hungary – – – – – – – – Latvia – – – – – – 0 1 Lithuania – – – – – – – – Poland – – – – – – 6 7 Romania – – – – – – – – Russia – – – – – 1 3 6 Slovakia – – – – – – – – Slovenia – – – – – – – – Turkey – – – – – – – 1 C & E Europe – – – – 0 3 14 25 Australia – – – – – 27 63 47 China – – – – – – – – Hong Kong – – – – – – 10 10 India – – – – – 1 6 8 Indonesia – – – – 0 0 0 0 Japan – – 15 54 103 219 535 667 Malaysia – – – – – – – – New Zealand – – – – – – – – Philippines – – – – – – – – Singapore – – – – – – – – South Korea – – – – – 79 133 125 Taiwan – – – – – – 27 26 Thailand – – – – – 2 6 4 Vietnam – – – – – – – – Asia Pacific – – 15 54 103 328 780 887 Argentina – – – – – – – – Brazil – – – – – – – – Chile – – – – – – – – Colombia – – – – – – – – Mexico – – – – – – – – Panama – – – – – – – – Peru – – – – – – – – Puerto Rico – – – – – 0 1 1 Uruguay – – – – 1 2 2 1 Venezuela – – – – – – – – Lat. America – – – – 1 2 3 2 Bahrain – – – – – – – – Egypt – – – – – – – – Israel – – – – – – 3 6 Kuwait – – – – – – – – Oman – – – – – – – – Qatar – – – – – – – – Saudi Arabia/ – – – – – – – – Pan Arab South Africa – – – – – – – 8 UAE – – – – – – – – TOTAL – – 316 998 2 174 5 460 8 042 8 758 Source: Zenith Optimedia 34
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Online advertising spend (US$ millions at current prices) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Canada 145 196 300 464 661 859 1 074 1 289 USA 7 250 7 758 8 688 9 992 12 490 16 112 18 206 20 391 N. America 7 395 7 953 8 989 10 455 13 150 16 970 19 280 21 680 Austria – 13 27 35 40 47 52 57 Belgium 14 22 40 68 106 149 180 206 Denmark 70 81 96 112 129 150 174 192 Finland 19 21 29 45 56 71 85 97 France 123 163 234 301 407 529 607 729 Germany 282 306 337 413 536 659 799 959 Ireland 5 7 11 20 36 53 81 104 Italy 124 129 138 160 225 323 480 736 Netherlands 40 50 82 121 157 196 235 271 Norway 39 50 71 258 387 542 705 846 Portugal 6 5 6 6 10 15 22 32 Spain 89 93 117 150 195 263 368 534 Sweden 143 152 177 228 299 367 435 498 Switzerland 16 24 23 29 40 61 91 137 UK 322 668 1 276 2 115 2 960 3 703 4 551 5 450 Western Europe 1 291 1 785 2 664 4 061 5 583 7 129 8 865 10 849 Bulgaria – – 2 3 4 6 8 10 Czech Rep. 10 15 28 35 46 59 70 83 Estonia 2 2 2 3 6 9 12 15 Greece – – – – – – – - Hungary – – 12 28 48 57 70 85 Latvia 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 Lithuania – – 2 2 4 5 8 11 Poland 10 15 27 43 66 90 117 163 Romania – 1 2 3 6 8 12 17 Russia 11 18 35 60 108 178 294 485 Slovakia – – – – 7 11 15 19 Slovenia – – 4 4 4 5 5 6 Turkey 2 3 6 7 11 18 20 23 C & E Europe 35 55 121 190 314 449 635 922 Australia 128 180 296 474 663 883 1 118 1 134 China – – – – – – – – Hong Kong 10 14 16 18 20 21 23 24 India 8 8 10 24 34 57 86 158 Indonesia 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Japan 767 1 073 1 646 2 548 3 476 4 394 5 224 5 980 Malaysia – – – – – – – – New Zealand – 7 13 39 77 101 108 115 Philippines – – – – – – – – Singapore – – – – – – – – South Korea 181 264 383 554 664 764 878 966 Taiwan 30 34 61 91 128 166 233 314 Thailand 4 4 9 4 4 5 5 6 Vietnam – 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Asia Pacific 1 127 1 585 2 434 3 751 5 067 6 391 7 676 8 700 Argentina 4 6 8 11 11 11 11 11 Brazil – 55 77 112 128 141 155 171 Chile – 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 Colombia – – – – – – – – Mexico – – – – – – – – Panama – – – – – – – – Peru – – – – – – – – Puerto Rico 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Uruguay 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Venezuela – – – – – – – – Lat. America 5 69 94 132 150 163 178 194 Bahrain – – – – – – – – Egypt – – – – – – – – Israel 8 12 30 53 68 82 95 108 Kuwait – – – – – – – – Oman – – – – – – – – Qatar – – – – – – – – Saudi Arabia/ – 9 18 36 80 110 136 160 Pan Arab South Africa 7 8 18 19 20 21 26 29 UAE – 5 8 14 22 28 35 43 TOTAL 9 868 11 481 14 376 18 712 24 454 31 344 36 926 42 685 Source: Zenith Optimedia 35
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Online advertising share (%) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Canada 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,8 1,5 1,3 USA 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,8 1,6 3,3 3,8 4,5 N. America 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,8 1,5 3,2 3,7 4,4 Austria 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Belgium 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,7 0,6 Denmark 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,8 Finland 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,6 1,0 1,4 France 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,9 1,4 1,2 Germany 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,8 1,0 Ireland 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 Italy 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 1,7 1,4 Netherlands 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 0,9 Norway 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,4 2,3 1,8 Portugal 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6 Spain 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,9 0,9 Sweden 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 1,3 3,1 5,6 5,4 Switzerland 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 0,6 0,5 UK 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 1,3 1,5 Western Europe 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,5 1,2 1,2 Bulgaria – 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Czech Rep. 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 Estonia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,4 0,7 1,9 2,5 Greece 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Hungary 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Latvia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,9 Lithuania – 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Poland 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,3 Romania 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Russia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,4 Slovakia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Slovenia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Turkey 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 C & E Europe 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 Australia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 1,0 0,8 China 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Hong Kong 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,6 India 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,4 Indonesia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Japan 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,6 1,3 1,6 Malaysia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 New Zealand 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Philippines 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Singapore 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 South Korea 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,5 2,0 1,9 Taiwan 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,5 1,3 Thailand 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,2 Vietnam 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Asia Pacific 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,5 1,1 1,2 Argentina 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Brazil 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Chile 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Colombia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Mexico 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Panama 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Peru 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Puerto Rico 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Uruguay 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,2 1,5 1,0 Venezuela 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Lat. America 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Bahrain – – – – – – – – Egypt 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Israel 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,3 0,8 Kuwait 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Oman – 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Qatar – – – – – – – – Saudi Arabia/ 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Pan Arab South Africa 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 UAE 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 TOTAL 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,7 1,7 2,2 2,5 Source: Zenith Optimedia 36
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Online advertising share (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Canada 2,3 2,9 4,0 5,9 7,9 9,8 11,7 13,4 USA 4,8 5,1 5,4 6,0 7,1 8,8 9,6 10,4 N. America 4,7 5,0 5,3 6,0 7,2 8,9 9,7 10,5 Austria 0,0 0,5 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,8 Belgium 0,6 0,8 1,4 2,3 3,1 4,2 4,8 5,3 Denmark 3,9 4,4 4,9 5,4 5,9 6,4 6,9 7,3 Finland 1,4 1,6 2,0 3,0 3,7 4,5 5,2 5,8 France 1,0 1,4 1,9 2,4 3,1 3,9 4,4 5,1 Germany 1,4 1,5 1,7 2,0 2,6 3,1 3,7 4,4 Ireland 0,4 0,5 0,6 1,1 1,8 2,6 3,6 4,4 Italy 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,5 2,0 2,8 4,1 5,9 Netherlands 0,9 1,2 1,9 2,7 3,4 4,1 4,7 5,3 Norway 1,9 2,1 2,6 8,1 11,0 14,1 17,0 19,0 Portugal 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,9 1,3 1,8 2,5 Spain 1,3 1,3 1,5 1,8 2,2 2,9 3,8 5,2 Sweden 6,7 7,2 8,0 9,5 11,4 13,1 14,7 15,9 Switzerland 0,5 0,8 0,9 1,1 1,4 2,0 2,8 3,9 UK 1,7 3,5 6,1 9,8 13,5 16,3 19,0 21,5 Western Europe 1,4 2,0 2,8 4,1 5,5 6,7 8,0 9,4 Bulgaria 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,4 1,5 Czech Rep. 0,7 1,0 1,7 1,9 2,3 2,6 2,9 3,2 Estonia 2,4 3,1 3,0 3,5 5,1 6,9 8,1 9,0 Greece 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Hungary 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,1 1,8 2,0 2,2 2,4 Latvia 1,2 1,9 1,8 2,5 2,8 3,1 3,2 3,5 Lithuania 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,6 0,9 1,1 1,6 1,9 Poland 0,3 0,4 0,7 1,1 1,4 1,6 1,9 2,5 Romania 0,0 0,3 0,7 0,9 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,1 Russia 0,5 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,7 2,1 2,8 3,6 Slovakia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 0,8 0,9 1,0 Slovenia 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 Turkey 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,6 0,8 0,8 1,0 C & E Europe 0,3 0,4 0,7 0,9 1,3 1,6 2,0 2,5 Australia 2,1 2,8 4,1 6,2 8,2 10,4 12,5 12,5 China 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Hong Kong 0,5 0,8 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,7 India 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,7 0,8 1,2 1,5 2,5 Indonesia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Japan 2,0 2,8 4,2 6,3 8,4 10,4 12,1 13,7 Malaysia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 New Zealand 0,0 0,5 0,8 2,1 4,0 5,0 5,0 5,2 Philippines 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Singapore 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 South Korea 2,4 3,3 5,2 7,2 8,2 9,2 10,3 11,1 Taiwan 1,5 1,5 3,4 5,7 7,7 10,1 13,0 15,9 Thailand 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 Vietnam 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 Asia Pacific 1,6 2,1 3,0 4,4 5,6 6,6 7,4 7,9 Argentina 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9 Brazil 0,0 1,5 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0 Chile 0,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,1 Colombia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Mexico 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Panama 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Peru 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Puerto Rico 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 Uruguay 1,0 1,9 1,7 1,7 1,8 1,8 2,0 2,1 Venezuela 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Lat. America 0,0 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,9 1,0 Bahrain – – – 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Egypt 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Israel 1,1 1,7 3,9 6,6 8,5 9,8 11,0 12,0 Kuwait 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Oman 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Qatar – – – – – – – – Saudi Arabia/ 0,0 0,5 0,7 1,3 2,0 2,6 2,9 3,1 Pan Arab South Africa 0,4 0,4 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,7 0,7 UAE 0,0 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,3 TOTAL 2,8 3,2 3,7 4,6 5,7 6,9 7,7 8,5 Source: Zenith Optimedia 37
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER 38
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 2. Digital media usage trends Media usage trends inform advertising and That shift is creating many new opportunities revenue-making trends. Advertisers like to go for advertisers, especially in paid search. where the eyeballs go, be it online or on Advertising in online video is another big mobile phones. opportunity (though it may be that online video advertising servers as a trigger for This chapter is all about consumers’ media potential buyers to gather more information, usage preferences and behaviors around the not as a direct catalyst for purchasing). world, particularly online and mobile usage patterns. These trends allow publishers and As for mobile phones, global subscribers will advertisers alike to better understand where the reach 2.8 billion in 2010, and the penetration digital usage trends are headed, allowing the of mobile subscribers will exceed 40 percent, advertisers to make better investments in with most of them from Asia Pacific. The digital advertising and publishers better Middle East and Africa are the fastest growing decisions about investments in content regions, though current subscriber bases are development. comparatively small. To summarise the many findings from this section’s compilation of studies: digital media, Media usage trends including Internet and mobile, are growing MEDIA USAGE their user bases fast, and are becoming robust advertising media, particularly among the According to BIGresearch’s SIMM9 Study young. Simultaneous media usage is becoming published in 2006, more than 90 percent of the more common in this fast-paced world, and US. population watches TV, which takes the users thus pay less attention to any one media. lead among all media during an average week. Television viewing is almost evenly distributed As for Internet, global users exceeded 1 billion among age groups. While the Internet and E- in 2006. Mail are the next most accessed mediums 39
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Media usage during an average week % (% of U.S. population) 120 During an average WEEK (MONDAY-SUNDAY), do you… Age 18-34 35-54 55+ 100 80 60 40 20 0 Listen Listen to Listen Watch Surf the Read/ Read Read Read Instant Blog? Video to the satellite to web TV? Internet? send magazines? the the mail? message? gaming? radio? radio? radio? E-mail? newspapers? Source: BIGresearch, SIMM9, Dec 2006 during a week, with 80 percent or more people MEDIA REACH BY DAYPARTS using it during the week, youth aged 18 to 34 are far more likely to surf the Internet than Timing is an important factor of media reach. those 35 to 54, or 55+, while those in older age For example, in the evening, TV has a much groups were more likely to read and send higher reach compared to other parts of the emails during the week. day, when most people are at work or at school. Internet and radio hold steady Radio trends toward the younger generation, throughout the day, at about 34 to 40 percent. while print media trend older. New emerging Newspapers, meanwhile, reach their biggest media such as satellite radio, Web radio, audience in the morning. instant messaging, blogging, and video gaming, are not heavily used, and tend to be DAILY MEDIA REACH BY LOCATIONS concentrated among younger users, aged 18 Media daily reach at home to 34. In the U.S., TV is the dominant medium in the home, with about 90 percent penetration, MEDIA DAILY REACH VS. DAILY across all age groups. TV is followed by the DURATION Web, with a reach of around 40 to 50 percent. Newspapers’ biggest audience are those over According to the Middletown Media Study II 50; for people 34 and under, the newspapers 2005 conducted by the Online Publishers reach is below 30 percent. Magazines find Association, TV reaches most Americans their biggest audience among females, (about 90 percent), with the longest duration especially women in older age groups. (more than 4 hours a day). Radio and Web both garner a 60 to 75 percent daily reach; Media daily reach at work However, on average, a user only spends At work, Web and radio are the two media about 2 hours on them. The study reported most often accessed, with a reach of 50 to that newspapers and magazines reach 30 to 60 percent and 40 to 50 percent, respectively. 40 percent of the population daily, and The biggest audience for newspapers in the readers spend about an hour reading them. workplace is men over age 50, while among From 1995 to 2005, the daily duration of Web other age groups the reach is under 20 percent. usage has more than doubled: from about 50 Magazines are most read by women, in minutes to 110 minutes, and the daily reach particular those between 35 to 49 years-old. has grown from about 10 percent to more The biggest audience for watching TV while than 60 percent. at work is young men, ages 18 to 34. 40
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Daily reach vs. daily duration Media reach by dayparts Daily reach: Incidence of use Incidence of use (%) (%) 100 TV 100 Internet 90 TV 90 Radio 82 80 80 Newspapers 70 Radio 70 Magazines 60 Web 2005 60 50 50 Newspapers 32 40 40 40.86 30 34.29 34.57 30 32 20 Magazines 10 20 12.29 16.57 0 Web 1995 10 12.29 6.86 0 60 120 180 240 300 0 Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Daily duration: Average minutes per user (8-11am) (11am-2pm) (2-5pm) (5-11pm) Source: Online Publishers Association, 2005 Source: Middletown Media Study II, Online Publishers Association, 2005 Media daily reach at home 100% M18-34 M35-49 M50+ 80% F18-34 F35-49 F50+ 60% 40% 20% 0% TV Web Radio Newspaper Magazine #1 #2 Source: Middletown Media Study II, Online Publishers Association, 2005 Media daily reach at work 100% M18-34 M35-49 M50+ 80% F18-34 F35-49 F50+ 60% 40% 20% 0% Web Radio Newspaper Magazine TV #1 #2 Source: Middletown Media Study II, Online Publishers Association, 2005 41
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Percentage of teens (aged 13-18) who consume the medium everyday or almost everyday Watch TV 85 Use a PC (personal computer) 62 Listen to CDs 57 Talk on mobile phone 54 Go online 54 Listen to the radio 49 Send a text message 47 Send an instant message 41 Listen to MP3 Player 36 Use a search engine 35 Send an email 30 Share files-video, picture, music... 25 Read a newspaper 22 Watch tapes/DVDs 19 Read magazines 17 Go to the movies 2 Source: Gen World Study, WNA 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage of teens (aged 13-18) who do 2+ of the following every day: Talk on mobile phone, text message, go online, email, IM, use search engine France 85 UK 85 Spain 83 Australia 82 Germany 77 USA 75 Poland 75 Taiwan 71 China 62 Russia 55 Mexico 50 Brazil 23 India 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Gen World Study, WNA MEDIA USAGE AMONG TEENAGERS YOUNG GENERATION DAILY DIGITAL MEDIA USAGE According to WNA’s Gen World Study, conducted in 13 countries, TV is the most- In general, teenagers typically use digital consumed medium among teenagers: 85 media on a daily basis. Based on WNA’s Gen percent of the respondents use it “almost every World Study, more than 80 percent of the day.” After TV, the Internet is the next-most teenage respondents in France, UK, Spain and consumed media, with 62 percent of the Australia perform at least two of the following respondents accessing it on a daily basis. activities related to digital media: talk on their Listening to CDs, talking on mobile phones, mobile phone, send text messages, go online, and surfing online are also very common. email, instant message, or use a search engine. Traditional media like newspapers and Among the 13 countries involved in the survey, magazines are read daily by 22 percent and 17 only Brazil and India lag behind: Teens in percent of teens, respectively. Going to movies Brazil and India use these media daily 23 is least common on a daily basis. percent and 5 percent, respectively. 42
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Percentage of U.S. online population What device(s) do you spending less time with medium download to? due to time spent online, 2006 % of US population % 60 35 Age 18-34 35-54 55+ 50 30 33 30 30 40 25 20 30 19 15 20 10 10 5 0 0 Cell iPod Mac MP3 PC Other Radio Magazines Newspapers Television phone player Source: Arbitron Inc./Edison Media Research Source: BIGresearch, SIMM9, Dec 2006 DOWNLOADING CONTENT In terms of the digital devices used for When you go online, downloading content, BIGresearch reports that have you ever simultaneously… % of US population the PC is by far the No.1 choice, while the 90 mobile phone, iPod, and MP3 player follow. 80 Age 18-34 35-54 55+ While the PC is still the main device people 70 use to download digital content, portable 60 devices such as mobile phones, iPods, and 50 40 MP3 players have high growth potential. 30 According to Arbitron and Edison Media 20 10 Research’s study, Internet usage affects other 0 media usage. 33 percent of the U.S. online Listened Watched Read Read Read Engaged to the TV? magazines? the the in other population spend less time on TV because of radio? newspaper? mail? activity? time spent online. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Source: BIGresearch, SIMM9, Dec 2006 U.S. online users spend less time with magazines and newspapers. MEDIA SIMULTANEOUS USAGE TREND When you use media simultaneously, According to BIGresearch’s SIMM9 study do you pay attention... % of US population conducted in December 2006, simultaneous 60 media usage is a growing trend, especially Age 18-34 35-54 55+ 50 among the younger generation. 40 Overall, most survey respondents across age 30 groups have simultaneously used other media while going online. Younger respondents 20 tended to media multitask more than older 10 people. More than 50 percent of respondents 0 have at some point simultaneously listened to To one media Equally Don't more than to each media simultaneously the radio, watched TV, or engaged in another the other(s) use media activity while online. For people aged between Source: BIGresearch, SIMM9, Dec 2006 18 and 34, the numbers increase to above 70 percent. The percentages then decline in 40 percent said they would pay attention proportion to age. equally to each. About 10 percent of young When asked how they pay attention when they people (age 18 to 34), 15 percent of middle use media simultaneously, nearly 50 percent aged people (age 35 to 54), and nearly 30 said they tend to pay attention to one medium percent of older people (age 55 and over) said more than other(s), and around 25 percent to they do not simultaneously use media. 43
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Internet Internet users, by regions INTERNET USER PROFILE 2005 According to Central Intelligence Agency Europe North statistics collected in 2005 and 2006, global 24% America Internet users reached 1 billion. The country 23% with the most Internet users is the United States, with 205 million people logging on. China has the second-highest number of users,with 123 South America million Internet users, while Japan is third with 5% about 86 million Internet users. Morgan Stanley broke down Internet users Asia Pacific ROW statistics by regions of the world, and found that 36% 12% Asia Pacific has the most Internet users in the world, comprising 35 percent, while Europe and Source: Morgan Stanley Research North America have about 24 and 23 percent of overall Internet users. South America and the young, since the older generation makes up “rest of the world” make up the remaining 17 only 13 percent of total Internet users. percent of the Internet population. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Internet population skews older, with 31 percent of According to Nielsen NetRatings GNETT, Internet users over 50. September 2006 data, the global Internet population is 48 percent female and 52 percent male. While in Europe, Japan and Brazil, HOME PC INTERNET ACCESS women make up less than a half of overall Based on the Nielsen NetRatings study, the Internet population, in United States, men United States has the highest percentage of comprise less than 50 percent of the Internet people who access the Internet from home PCs population. (75 percent). Australia, Japan and EMEA all have more than 50 percent of households Globally speaking, the Internet population is accessing the Internet. Brazil lags behind with composed of 18 percent of people under age 12 percent. 18, 25 percent aged 18 to 34, 29 percent aged 35 to 40, and 28 percent above age 40. In For Internet access via new platforms such as Brazil, the Internet population is comparatively PDAs, mobile phones, WiFi and the like, the Internet users, 2005-2006 1,200,000,000 57 1,000,000,000 50 48 47 46 46 46 800,000,000 40 38 38 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 0 World United China Japan India Germany United Korea France Italy Brazil States Kingdom South Source: Rank Order - Internet users, CIA (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2153rank.html) 44
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Gender of Internet population Age of Internet population % Female Male % U18 18-34 35-40 50+ 100 100 18 15 17 20 21 28 80 48 44 45 48 50 52 80 30 25 25 21 25 36 60 60 29 38 28 31 28 40 40 52 56 55 52 50 48 23 28 31 20 20 24 26 20 13 0 0 World Europe Japan Brazil Australia United World Europe Japan United Australia Brazil States States Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT September 2006 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT September 2006 Percentage of US population Percentage of population with Internet access with Internet access via home PC % % 100 80 70 75 80 68 79 81 81 60 64 72 75 60 50 53 62 55 40 50 40 30 20 20 10 12 0 0 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. United Brazil EMEA Japan Australia 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 States Source: Arbitron Inc./Edison Media Research Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT September 2006 United States and France lead the world with 42 percent and 41 percent respectively. Percentage of population who have However, in Brazil and Germany, the accessed the Web via new-platforms: percentage is relatively lower, with 22 percent. pda’s / phones / airports, WiFi, etc US ADULT ONLINE Base: 16+ who have ever used the Internet, among population 16+ in households According to research from the Pew Internet & % with fixed line telephone(s) American Life project, the U.S. adult online 50 population has increased dramatically since 1995, when only 15 percent of the adult 40 42 41 population went online. By 2005, that number had climbed beyond 70 percent, though it is 30 now leveling off. 29 28 20 22 22 US ONLINE POPULATION PROFILE The U.S. online population is even by gender, 10 but skews younger. About 70 percent of those online are 18 to 49 years old, while those over 0 United France Spain United Brazil Germany 50 comprise 22 percent of the online States Kingdom population. Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT September 2006 45
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Percentage of U.S. adults online % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5 6 7 8 0 01 01 02 02 04 04 05 05 05 06 6 0 3 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 b- p- n- p- b- e- n- e- p- n- e ly ov ay ug ril ch ay un un un Ja Ja Ja Fe Se Se Fe Se Ju Ap M -M N ar -A -J -J -J g- il- M b- ly ch ay ay ay r Au Ju Fe Ap ar M M M M Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project Surveys, March 2000-April 2006 PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS Global broadband household Studies besides Pew’s also show a substantial According to the Global Entertainment and increase in U.S. Internet usage. Arbitron Media Overview from Edison research says that in 1999, only half PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2006, growth in the the population had access, but more than 80 number of households with broadband is percent had Internet access in 2006. growing rapidly, from 30 million in 2001 to This is also consistent with other data 433 million in 2010, an expansion of more regarding Internet growth in recent years. than twelve-fold. U.S. online population profile % Gender Age Social-economic status 50 50 50 48 40 36 34 30 32 20 22 16 10 12 0 Female Male 12-17 18-34 35-49 50+ Low Middle High years years years years Source: Online Publisher Association/Frank N. Magid Associates, Feb 2006 46
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Global broadband households Millions 500 433 400 386 338 300 286 233 200 187 141 100 85 54 0 30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Broadband penetration In 2002, dial-up had a 78 percent penetration, but in 2006, dial-up had fallen to only 38 percent Worldwide broadband penetration is expected of the population, while broadband reached to more than double between 2003 and 2010, nearly 60 percent penetration. These statistics from less than 10 percent to more than 20 diverge considerably from global broadband percent. In Western Europe, broadband growth statistics from CIA, which show the countries is particularly fast, and is projected to reach 27 have significantly lower broadband penetration. percent in 2010. Eastern Europe, meanwhile, will see broadband shoot up from less than 1 percent penetration in 2003 to 20.4 percent in Broadband penetration EU vs. U.S. 2010, with still more room to increase. % Western Europe (EU 14) 30 Eastern Europe (EU 6) In 2010, 75 percent of households will have EU 20 25 27.1 PCs and 64 percent of them will have Internet USA 25.2 25 20 access, while 25 percent of them will have 20.4 15 broadband in the EU. 15 15.3 10 12.6 In US, broadband is supplanting dial-up as the 9.1 5 6.3 mainstream Internet connection technology. 0.9 5.1 4.6 0 2003 2005 2010 Source: Screen Digest, Eurostat Percentage of U.S. population Penetration of technologies in EU with broadband/dial-up access 2003-2010 at home % PC (per household) 80 80 Online (per household) 70 78 Broadband Dial-up 70 Broadband (per capita) 74.7 60 68 60 60 64.2 58 59.9 50 50 40 48 48 40 49 46.7 30 37 38 30 35.2 20 28 21 20 25.2 10 10 5.1 12.6 0 0 Jan. 2002 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2004 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2006 2003 2005 2010 Source: Arbitron Inc./Edison Media Research Source: Screen Digest, Eurostat 47
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Percentage of U.S. population Percentage of Internet population who have ever purchased online who have purchased online % Base: Total population 12+ in last six months 60 Base: 16+ who have ever used the internet % 50 52 50 Q3 2006 48 47 Growth since Q3 2005 40 45 40 43 30 30 31 20 21 19 20 19 10 12 9 10 10 13 2 2 0 United Germany Australia France Spain Brazil 0 Kingdom January 1999 January 2006 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT, September 2005-2006 Source: Arbitron Inc./Edison Media Research ONLINE PURCHASING online purchasing in Germany and Spain is robust, with an almost 20 percent growth rate Online purchase has become increasingly from 2005 to 2006. popular in the US. From 1999 to 2006, the U.S. online purchase population has increased INTERNET ADVERTISING from 13 percent to 52 percent of overall U.S. According to the Global Entertainment and population, according to Arbitron research. Media Overview from In the UK, Germany and Australia, more than PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2006, the global 40 percent of online users now make purchases Internet advertising and access spending is online, according to Nielsen NetRatings, while projected to grow from US$65.7 billion in in Spain and Brazil, online purchasing still 2001 to US$265.6 billion in 2010. It has represents a niche. However, the growth for grown more than fourfold in ten years. Internet advertising and access spending (US$ millions) 300,000 Canada 3,109 Latin America Asia Pacific 8,581 250,000 110,282 EMEA United States 200,000 2,274 5,261 17,861 59,886 150,000 22,325 83,421 100,000 56,942 1,127 44,304 1,766 17,188 50,000 60,168 21,319 45,081 24,217 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 48
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS U.S. advertising allocation in 2006 U.S. internet advertising forecast (US$ millions) 2005-2007 National offline Local offline US$ Online video Referrals Search $130,834 $129,107 billions Email classified Display 20 18 1,80 16 0,58 14 12 5,66 10 5,16 8 4,25 6 National online Local online 8,81 4 7,23 $18,028 $5,857 5,13 2 8.4% of all advertising is online 6.3% of all advertising is national online 0 2.1% of all adverting is local online 2005 2006 2007 Source: Borrell Associates Inc Source: WR Hambrecht + Co., Online Video Advertising: Advertisers and Sites Prepare for Future Opportunities, June 2006 Asia Pacific has the highest compounded U.S. online spending allocation annual growth rates in the world from 2006 to forecast in 2007 2010, of about 18 percent. Latin America and Sponsored Contents Europe, Middle East and Africa also have Vertical Search 2% 3% growth rates of more than 10 percent. CAGR Weblog Mktg Webinars 1% for Canada, and United States, however, have 3% Wireless Mktg slowed to about 8 or 9 percent, which is likely Other Info Site 1% 3% due to higher and earlier Internet revenue Trade development. Web Site 8% US INTERNET ADVERTISING SPENDING Search Engines In 2006, total advertising spending in the 9% United States reached US$283.8 billion, according to Borrell Associates. Of the total, Company’s 8.4 percent, or US$23.9 billion, comprises E-mail Mktg Own Site 12% 58% online advertising, while the rest (US$259.9 Source: Outsell’s Ad Spending Database billion) is offline. Though online is still not the majority of ad spending, it has strong growth potential. Among online ad spending, 75.5 percent Internet advertising and access comprises national advertising, while the spending CAGR: 2006-2010 remaining 24.5 percent is local. Canada Asia Pacific United States From 2005 to 2007, U.S. Internet advertising % Latin America EMEA spending grew from US$12.5 billion to 20 US$18.5 billion, according to WR Hambrecht 15 17.9 & Co. Online video and search saw the fastest 14.5 growth. Video grew from nothing in 2005 to 10 11 about US$1.8 billion in 2007. The much larger 9 8.4 search advertising segment should constitute 5 an $8.8 billion market in 2007, or just less than 0 half of Internet spending, thanks to the biggest Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates recipients of the revenue – Google and Yahoo! 49
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER U.S. online spending growth forecast in 2007 % 40 39 35 38 30 30 25 28 20 15 17 18 10 11 10 5 0 -2 Company’s E-mail Search Trade Other Webinars Vertical Sponsored -4 -5 Own Site Mktg Engines Web Site Info Site Search Contents Wireless Weblog Source: Outsell’s Ad Spending Database Mktg Mktg According to Outsell’s Ad Spending Database, the 2007 U.S. online ad spending U.S. local online advertising in 2007 goes mostly to Web sites, with smaller (US$ millions) percentages for e-mail marketing and search Banners & Paid search engines. But in terms of online ad spending Listings $1,837 growth, search engines and sponsored $5,272 24% contents take the lead as the fastest growing with more than 30 percent growth, consistent with Hambrecht’s research finding that Streaming 68% 5% video search is one of the most important sectors in $371 3% the Internet advertising marketing. E-mail ads $233 US LOCAL ONLINE ADVERTISING U.S. local online advertising has boomed since Source: Borrell Associates Inc. 1998 from about US$243 million to a projected US$9 billion in 2010, according to U.S. local online ad spending Borrell Associates. US$ millions 2007 and 2012 Three forms of robust advertising online are 15,000 emerging in the local marketplace: local Online video banners/listing, local paid search and local Paid search 12,500 E-mail ads email advertising. Tremendous growth has Banners & listings occurred in each area, particularly search, which is expected to grow tenfold from 2005 10,000 to 2010, going from US$420 million to US$ $10,8b 4.1 billion. Local email ad spending is 7,500 76% projected to grow more than fourfold between $2,2b 29% 2006 and 2010. 5,000 Banners and listings make up 73 percent of overall local online spending, but by 2010 that 2,500 will shrink to 49 percent, in favour of search and email advertising. In fact,, Paid Search should climb from only 24 percent to 44 0 2007 2012 percent in 2010. Source: Borrell Associates Inc. 50
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS U.S. local online advertising growth, 1998-2010 (US$ millions) 10,000 9,500 9,308 Local banners/listings Local paid search 8,896 Local Email ads 8,000 7,713 6,000 5,857 4,810 4,000 2,687 2,078 2,000 1,650 1,398 1,170 466 243 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 243 466 1,170 1,398 1,650 2,078 2,687 4,390 4,468 5,643 5,691 5,389 4,544 – – – – – – – 420 938 1,837 2,914 3,657 4,073 – – – – – – – – 151 233 291 454 691 Source: Borrell Associates Inc U.S. online content spending by category of content, 2004-2005 (US$ millions) 600 38.8% 2004 2005 7% 500 400 2.4% 300 200 32.3% 22% 22% 100 11.7% 7.8% 2.9% -5% -4.6% 0 le t ne ting ls en t h th es s or d e rts s p ty en m n w rd rc el da ona st nte ow Pe s t s am ct a o ne th lif inem ea ca ie re -m Sp gr ve o G di rs es al g in s C ity es re al in er rta R un on et C s en te di re m rs G En om G si Pe Bu C Source: Online Publishers Association/comScore Networks research 51
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Mobile U.S. online paid content revenue MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS AND US$ billions 2001-2005 SUBSCRIPTIONS 2.5 According to the Global Entertainment and Media Overview 2006 from 2.0 PricewaterhouseCoopers, global wireless 2.0 telephone subscribers have increased from 840 1.8 million in 2001 to 2.8 billion people in 2010. 1.5 1.6 In ten years, then mobile subscriptions have 1.3 grown 235 percent, although the annual 1.0 growth rate has decelerated from over 15 percent before 2004 to projections of less than 0.7 10 percent after 2008. 0.5 Based on the Mobile Industry Outlook 2007 from Informa Telecom & Media, The number 0 of mobile subscribers will reach nearly 3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 billion in 2011, but since the numbers project Source: Online Publishers Association/comScore Networks research an increase in the number of people who carry more than one mobile phone, total subscriptions should reach 3.9 billion in the In 2007, U.S. local online advertising is same year. Both subscription penetration and expected to reach US$7.7 billion. Nearly 70 subscriber penetration are on the rise – percent (US$5.3 billion) will come from subscription penetration is projected to exceed banner ads and listings, paid search accounts 50 percent in 2008, meaning that on average for 24 percent (US$1.8 billion), and streaming half of the global population have mobile video and email advertising account for 8 subscriptions, and subscriber penetration percent. would also reach 40 percent in 2009. However, in 2012, online video and paid MOBILE USERS BY COUNTRIES search will together account for 75 percent of Between 2005 and 2006, the number of global the US$ 10.8 billion in local online mobile users reached 2.17 billion people, with advertising, according to Borrell. Online video one-fifth from the European Union, and will grow up to near US$5 billion. another one-fifth from China. The United States has more than 200 million mobile users, US ONLINE CONTENT according to the CIA. The CIA has collected According to the Online Publishers mobile usage statistics showing much lower Association and comScore Networks penetrations. research, 2005 U.S. online paid content revenue has grown from US$ 0.7 billion in 2001 to near US$2 billion in 2005, or more Mobile subscribers, by regions, 2005 than double. The study found that some North America content is easier to sell online than others. 11% The OPA survey found that Europe 19% Entertainment/Lifestyles, Personals/ Dating, South and Business Content/Investment are the top America 11% three spending categories in 2005, accounting for more than US$300 million in spending. However, in terms of future growth, the survey highlights the Entertainment/ Lifestyles, Research, Personal Growth and Games categories, Asia Pacific ROW since they each showed a 41% 18% 20 percent growth in 2005. The survey has Source: Morgan Stanley Communications Equipment Research – not been revisited since 2005. Scott Coleman, John Marchetti 52
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Global wireless telephone subscribers Subscribers (millions) Annual growth rate (%) 3,000 35 Global wireless telephone subscribers Annual growth rate 2,810 2,629 30 2,500 2,433 2,234 25 2,000 2,017 1,817 20 1,500 1,583 15 1,293 1,000 1,082 10 840 500 5 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Global mobile subscribers vs. subscriptions, 2006-2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total subscriptions (000s) 2,704,661 3,078,445 3,373,865 3,600,901 3,767,778 3,889,742 Total subscribers (000s) 2,098,612 2,381,058 2,604,303 2,774,553 2,898,080 2,985,957 Ratio 1.29 1.29 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Total population (%) 6,526,423 6,601,065 6,676,021 6,751,263 6,826,743 6,902,447 Subscription penetration (%) 41.44 46.64 50.54 53.34 55.19 56.35 Subscriber penetration (%) 32.16 36.07 39.01 41.10 42.45 43.26 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, Mobile Industry Outlook 2007 Countries with most mobile users, 2005-2006 (Global mobile users: 2,168,433,600) 500,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 European China United Russia Japan Brazil Germany Italy India United France Union States Kingdom Source: Rank Order - Mobile users, CIA 53
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reports that 41 Conversely, Mexico, Canada, and Turkey have percent of mobile subscribers come from Asia mobile subscriber penetrations under 50. Pacific, with most of those in China and Japan. European subscribers make up about 20 MOBILE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH percent of the world total, and most of them BY REGIONS are from Western Europe countries. North For 2005 to 2006, Asia Pacific still had the America and South America each comprise 11 most mobile subscribers in the world, with percent. more than 900 million in February 2006, According to OECD ICT Key Indicators, and according to Informa. Africa and Middle East OECD Communications Outlook 2005, in lag behind all other regions, with fewer than Luxembourg there are 120 mobile 200 million and about 50 million subscribers, subscriptions per 100 habitants. Singapore, respectively. However, though there are Sweden, Italy, Czech Republic, Israel, relatively small numbers of subscribers in Norway, and the United Kingdom also boast Africa and Middle East, growth in mobile more mobile subscriptions than inhabitants. subscribers is impressive, with 56 percent and Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants Luxembourg 120 Singapore** 111 Sweden 109 Italy 108 Czech Republic 106 Israel** 105 Norway* 103 United Kingdom 102 Greece 100 Portugal 99 Iceland 99 Netherlands 98 Austria 98 Denmark 96 Finland 96 Ireland 93 Spain* 91 Germany 90 Belgium 88 New Zealand* 86 Hungary 86 Switzerland 84 Australia 83 Slovak Republic 79 Korea 76 OECD average 72 Japan 72 France 72 United States 62 Poland 60 Turkey 48 Canada 47 Mexico 37 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: OECD ICT Key Indicators [www.oecd.org/sti/ICTindicators], and OECD Communications Outlook 2005 [www.oecd.org/document/15/0,2340,en_2649_33703_35269391_1_1_1_1,00.html] 54
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Mobile subscriber growth Mobile subscriber growth by regions in Africa and Middle East Subscriptions Growth (millions) (%) % 2005-2011 1000 02 2005 02 2006 Growth 70 70 900 62 Africa Middle East World 60 60 800 700 56 50 50 600 39 40 40 500 400 33 30 30 300 26 20 20 200 11 12 10 10 100 0 0 0 Africa Americas Asia Europe Europe Middle US / Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Pacific Eastern Western East Canada 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, Mobile Industry Outlook 2007 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, Mobile Industry Outlook 2007 62 percent growth rates in 2006, respectively. Western Europe and US/Canada have the 3G subscribers lowest growth rates globally, because these 2006 markets developed earlier and have higher saturation rates. System Number Number of countries of subscribers From 2005 to 2008, Informa projects a peak of cdma 2000 72 (mainly 275.2 million mobile subscriber growth in Africa and Middle America, Asia) East. Their growth rates were more than 60 W-CDMA 55 (mainly 70 million percent in 2005, and are expected to decrease West Europe over time. By 2010, their growth rates will and Japan) drop to about 5 percent, almost the same as the HSDPA (3.5G) 36 N.A. world mobile subscriber growth. Source: The figures for cdma2000 are from the CDMA Development Group (CDG) and are for June 2006. 3G TECHNOLOGY The figures for W-CDMA and HSDPA are from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) and are for 3G technology comprises three systems: September 2006. CDMA 2000, W-CDMA, and HSDPA. CDMA 2000 is popular in 72 countries, mainly in Asia and the Americas, while W-CDMA is popular in 55 countries, especially in Japan and 3G subscriptions/penetration: Western Europe. U.S., Japan and EU 6 Subscriptions 2006 Penetration As of 2006, there are 275.2 million CDMA (000) (%) 2000 subscribers, while W-CDMA has 70 80,000 60 million. There are no relevant data for HSDPA 3G Subscriptions available. 70,000 3G Penetration 50 According to Screen Digest, Japan has the 60,000 most 3G subscriptions in the world in 2006— 40 70 million subscriptions and a 50 percent 50,000 penetration rate. There are six countries in the 40,000 30 EU (UK, Spain, Italy, France, Denmark and Belgium) that have about 20 million 30,000 subscriptions total, making for a penetration 20 rate of more than 10 percent. Among them, 20,000 Italy has the most subscriptions and the 10 highest penetration, nearing 20 percent. 10,000 Penetration rates for another 5 countries are 0 0 less than 10 percent; in Denmark and Belgium, US JP UK SP IT FR DK BE EU6 3G is still a niche. Source: Screen Digest 55
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER MOBILE USAGE TRENDS is more than 40 Euros, and the mobile data use is nearly 600 kilobytes per week, which goes Internet-connected mobile phones far beyond the other 5 countries studied: In Japan and Korea, more than 85 percent France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK. of mobile phone subscribers have Internet- By comparison, Germany’s mobile users lag connected devices, which far exceeds that of behind usage rates in the other five European any other place on the planet. In the United countries studied – Germans only spent 135 States, Internet-connected devices make up outgoing minutes per month, pay 29 Euros per 33.5 percent of total mobile phone subscribers. month on average, and only use 162 kilobytes In any other country, the share is less than per week. Germans also spent least on the 30 percent as of September 2004. mobile device, only 53 Euros, on average. Mobile device replacement cycle in europe Mobile activities in European countries In Europe, the mobile device replacement cycle As of 2006, two-way text messaging is still the is 26.5 months on average. In the UK, on average most popular mobile phone usage in the six people replace mobile devices every two years, countries studied. In Pan Europe two-way text while in Italy, the cycle is much longer – every messages reach 55 percent of mobile users, 30 months, on average, according to Telephia. while in UK there is a 72 percent reach. Mobile usage in EU Picture messaging is especially popular in According to a study by Telephia’s in 2006, Sweden, Spain and UK, with the reach of 44 Italians seem the heaviest users of mobile percent, 37 percent and 34 percent, respectively. phones – the outgoing minutes used per month Downloads are relatively popular in Spain, and exceeds 300 minutes, the average monthly bill mobile Internet is strong in Sweden. Although Internet-connected devices as a share of total mobile phone subscribers in selected countries, September 2004 100 94.1 89 80 60 40 33.5 20 28.2 22.1 21.7 21.4 20 18.9 14.8 0 Japan Korea United Austria Finland Netherlands Hong Kong Australia Italy Germany States China Source: MIC (2005), Information and Telecommunication in Japan 2005, Figure 5, page 86 Most frequent use of mobile commerce in selected countries Japan Korea Hong Kong, Chinese Greece Finland China Taipei Sample (persons) 2,146 4,581 1,375 1,809 497 66 First place Download Download Reading Download News Download services services services services 28.8% 60% 58% 36.1% 12.1% 31.8% Second place News Games Deliver News Download News services services 16.2% 17.2% 21.6% 14.1% 9.9% 24.2% Third place Location Ticketing for Games Investment Weather Financial information movie/music info/trans report services 14.9% 12.7% 16.9% 10.2% 9.1% 9.1% Source: ECOM (2004b) Survey of Mobile Internet Use, Tables 3-5 and 3-7 56
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Mobile device replacement cycle (months) 35 30 30.4 25 26.5 26.6 27.4 25.3 25 23.5 20 15 10 5 0 Pan Europe France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Source: Telephia Kingdom streaming online music and video reach only Internet use, 2004, download services are the 6 percent and 4 percent of mobile users in Pan most frequent use of mobile commerce in Europe, respectively, in Italy they are particularly Korea, Taipei, Finland, and Japan. Especially popular, with 11 percent and 9 percent reaches. in Korea, it is rated at the first place by 60 percent of respondents. News is also popular According to ECOM’s survey of mobile in all these countries. Mobile usage in European countries Pan Europe France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Kingdom Outgoing minutes used per month Cost of device ( ) 350 180 160 168 300 312 140 250 280 272 252 120 134 200 224 227 100 150 80 83 135 60 71 71 100 57 40 53 50 20 0 0 Amount of monthly bill ( ) Data use (Kb/wk) 45 700 40 600 41 40 35 597 34 34 500 30 33 25 29 29 400 20 300 324 333 15 271 249 200 254 10 100 162 5 0 0 Source: Telephia, 2006 57
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Mobile activities in European countries (% of mobile users) 2-way text messages Video messaging Online personal information manager Picture messaging Instant messaging Mobile modem Downloads Streaming online music Mobile TV Mobile internet Online game playing Uploads Email Streaming online video VOIP programs Pan Europe France Germany Italy Spain Sweden United Kingdom Source: Telephia, 2006 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 58
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS MOBILE REVENUE personalisation, nearly a quarter on other info and Infotainment, and 16 percent on According to OECD Key ICT Indicators, Search/411. Games and music and video are among all OECD countries, mobile revenue still niche, and only account for 10 and has grown more than twelve-fold, from 4 percent respectively. US$29.1 million in 1993 to US$376.6 million in 2004. MOBILE INTERNET AND DOWNLOAD Global mobile Internet revenue, 2005 US Mobile Downloads According to Morgan Stanley, global mobile US mobile download revenue in 2006 grew Internet revenue reached US$19 billion in from US$517 million in the first quarter to 2005, with 35 percent allocated on US$775 million. In the last quarter of 2006, 25 percent of the revenue came from audio download, while video and games accounted for 19 percent each. In 2006, video downloads Mobile Internet have grown 188 percent, while applications revenue composition also have grown near 100 percent. Overall, C2005E: $19 Billions U.S. mobile download revenue increased Search / 411 Personalization 50 percent in 2006. 16% 35% Enterprise Penetration of U.S. wireless services 10% subscribers Audio Games Applications Video 12 10 Other info Music 8 & infotainment & video 6 24% 4% Games 4 Gambling 10% 1% 2 Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates, Global Data. 0 Informa (5/05), Ovum (5/05). (1) Personalization includes ringtones, wallpapers, and screensavers. If SMS / MMS were added to Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mobile Internet – it would add $55B to total revenue and would 2006 2006 2006 2006 account for 74% of total revenue. Source: Telephia bill panel and surveys Global mobile revenue US$ millions 400 376.6 350 332.17 300 279.43 250 256.32 231.64 200 190.65 150 143.8 131.39 100 105.9 72.87 50 44.64 29.10 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Note : 2003 instead of 2004 data were used for Finland, the Netherlands and Japan. Source: OECD Key ICT Indicators [www.oecd.org/sti/ICTindicators] 59
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER U.S. mobile download revenue (US$ millions) 800 $775 Other / Unclassified $727 $700 $226 - 29% Applications 700 $203 - 28% Video $244 - 35% Games 600 Audio $517 500 $46 - 6% $56 - 7% $162 - 31% $37 - 5% $141 - 19% $148 - 19% 400 $86 - 12% Q1-Q4 Growth $29 - 6% Downloads 50% 300 $51 - 10% $141 - 20% $140 - 19% $151 - 19% Applications 97% $134 - 26% 200 Video 188% $193 - 28% $198 - 27% $193 - 25% Games 12% 100 $140 - 27% Audio 38% 0 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Source: Telephia bill panel and surveys U.S. mobile downloads Millions 60 Q1 2006 54.4 Q2 2006 50 Q3 2006 44.9 Q4 2006 40 Q1-Q4 Growth 30 30.0 27.6 27.1 Downloads 97% 24.6 25.9 Audio 41% 20 19.2 17.4 Games 36% 15.7 12.8 13.5 Applications 124% 10 9.0 8.9 Video 145% 4.0 4.1 5.1 6.2 2.5 3.7 0 Downloads Audio Games Applications Video Source: Telephia bill panel and surveys In terms of actual mobile downloads in the US, However, among those who have the mobile video downloads grew 145 percent and Internet access, the percentage of people who application downloads grew 124 percent, actually use it is not very high – United though these two areas are still market niches. Kingdom leads with 54 percent, followed by Italy and United States with 41 percent. The largest category of U.S. mobile downloads is audio, with about 10 to 12 percent penetration of U.S. mobile subscribers in 2006; games penetration is about 5 to 8 percent. Applications and video penetration are Mobile Internet penetration still under 4 percent. % vs. mobile Internet usage 100 Mobile Internet penetration Mobile Web use Mobile Internet 80 83 81 81 Subscription and use of the Mobile Web is a 76 60 71 64 growing trend globally. The penetration of the 54 40 Mobile Web is more than 70 percent in the 41 34 41 40 40 U.S. and EU countries studied by Online 20 Publishers Association, except for France. In 0 United United France Italy Germany Spain Italy, Germany, and Spain, the penetrations are States Kingdom in particularly high, over 80 percent. Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 60
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Expected mobile Internet time in next 12 months In the next year do you believe you will spend more time, about the same amount of time % or less time accessing the Internet on your mobile device? 100 More time Same time Less time 20 18 25 17 12 22 12 80 12 67 59 60 63 58 57 60 49 56 40 20 16 17 13 12 11 11 11 12 0 World United Europe United France Italy Germany Spain (n=1678) States (n=1484) Kingdom (n=174) (n=316) (n=285) (n=292) (n=194) (n=417) Respondents who use mobile Internet (n=1678) Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 Internationally, 58 percent of the existing mobile Internet users claim that they will Global mobile users profile (%) spend the same time on the mobile Web next Total mobile Total mobile Total mobile year, while 18 percent say they will spend device owners internet users content users more time in the next 12 months. In US, Gender Male 48 53 58 Italy, and UK, 25 percent, 22 percent and 20 Female 52 47 42 percent of the mobile Web users expect to Age spend more time next year on mobile 16-24 17 26 19 Internet. 25-34 15 30 18 35-54 36 26 37 So, which features are important to those 55+ 32 18 26 mobile Internet users? Site load time is the No. Income Low 59 52 48 1 factor that concerns respondents the most, Medium 31 35 36 followed by dissatisfaction with site High 10 13 16 navigation, Web page layout and user Note: Low Income = <$50K, < 38.5K; Med Inc = $50-70K, 38.5-77K; friendliness. High Inc = $100K+, 77K+ Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 Consumer profile The OPA study indicates that the mobile Internet users, or mobile content users, are The 3 biggest sources more male likely, younger, and have higher of dissatisfaction income than the mobile device owners without for mobile internet users mobile Internet access. Respondents who use mobile internet Mobile Web advertisements World United States Europe The OPA surveyed more than 6,000 people in 1st Site Site Site Load Time Load Time Load Time U.S. and Europe, asking their actions taken as 2nd Site Web Page Site result of viewing mobile Web advertisements. Navigation Layout Navigation The results show that respondents in Europe 3rd User Site User are more likely to take some actions compared Friendliness Navigation Friendliness with respondents in U.S. In Europe, 26 percent Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 61
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Actions taken as result of seeing mobile Web advertisements Which of the following have you ever done as the result of seeing an ad on the mobile internet? 23 Checked out a Web site 10 26 9 Made a purchase 4 9 11 Went to store to check out 4 a product 12 Signed up for product/ 5 service trial 3 6 Requested more info 13 about product/service 3 14 Forwarded ad 5 to friends/family 2 6 4 Ordered subscription 1 5 3 Total respondents Other 3 United States total respondents (n=1011) 3 Europe total respondents (n=5084) % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 of the respondents will check out a Web site, December 2006, the most popular website while 14 percent will request more information categories in mobile Internet market are E- about the product and service, and 12 percent mail and Weather, with more than 40 percent will go to a store to check out a product. On penetration among mobile Internet users. the other hand, in US, 10 percent of the respondents will check out a Web site, while 4 In terms of top mobile Internet website brands, percent will visit a store, and another 4 percent Yahoo! is the market leader with more than 50 will actually make a purchase. percent reach, while Google and MSN take second and third place, with reaches of 30.3 Generally speaking, mobile ads drive Website and 28.4 percent, respectively. and in-store visits, and the desire for product Information, but does not really drive the Regarding the top mobile Internet websites, actual purchase. These results seem to echo the Yahoo! Mail ranks No. 1 with a 29 percent impact of online video ads, which also trigger reach, while weather.com and ESPN each the interest in the product or service as well, reach about 21 percent of the market. but does not drive the actual purchase. This is consistent with the most popular categories, which indicates that mobile Mobile Internet categories and websites Internet users often use it as a tool to check email, weather, and also some sport news and According to Telephia’s study, conducted in scores. 62
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Mobile Internet top ten news politics sites in U.S. Active reach Dec 2006 (%) 12 10 11 8 7.9 6 5.6 4 5.1 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 2 2.7 0 CNN Yahoo! ABC Google FOX MSN USA MSNBC CBS AOL News News News News Mobile Today News News News Source: Telephia News Mobile Internet top ten websites in U.S. Active reach Dec 2006 (%) 30 28.9 25 20 21.3 20.8 15 17.6 15.3 10 12.9 11.5 11 10.7 10 5 0 Yahoo! The ESPN Google MSN Map AOL CNN Yahoo! Yahoo! Mail Weather Search Hotmail Quest Mail Weather Search Channel Source: Telephia (Weather.com) Mobile Internet top website brands in U.S. Active reach Dec 2006 (%) 60 50 51.7 40 30 30.3 28.4 20 21.3 21.1 20.8 18.8 10 12.9 10.1 8.6 0 Yahoo! Google MSN The CNN ESPN AOL Map City Accu Weather Quest Search Weather Source: Telephia Channel 63
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Mobile Internet active reach by website category in U.S. % Dec 2006 50 40 30 20 10 0 l ts s de ent s es g ce e ch ns t /F e s ch er gy n ai en ic ap es ag iv in Em atio or th M am tio an ar av nolo lit ot in nm m itn M t-P Sp ea E- Se Po /D m in uc oy ac G s/ W ity rtai /F ar to Bu ood s/ /A pl /V lth ss Sh l St Au ew Te te ng el ui ea ne F En e/ G rt a N pi n/ H si nc Tr op io Po ie at C Sc uc Source: Telephia Ed Video online According to the US online video survey 2006 conducted by Online Publishers Association According to Nielsen NetRatings GNETT and Frank N. Magid Associates, 93 percent of study 2005-2006, in Spain, nearly half of the respondents are aware of online video, and Internet users ages 16 and over have watched nearly 70 percent of them have watched it. video or audio content online. Five other Five percent are heavy users who watch online countries also show 30 percent to 40 percent video on a daily basis. penetration rates. Among the six countries studied, Brazil has very strong growth on In terms of the types of video watched, online video/audio viewership since the third news/current events video, jokes/funny video quarter 2005, at 27 percent, while in other clips, and music videos are the most frequently countries the growth rates are steady, between watched. 82 percent of respondents have 7 percent and 15 percent. watched movie clips or trailers, but few did so Online video/Audio viewership U.S. online video survey, 2006 % of internet population 16+ Base: 1,241 internet users looked at video/audio content online % Watch online video daily 50 Q3 2006 Watch online video at least once a week Growth since Q3 2005 % Watch online video at least once a month 47 100 Have watched online video 40 40 38 38 Are aware of online video 34 80 93 30 30 27 60 20 69 10 15 40 46 11 9 7 9 0 20 24 Spain United Australia Brazil France Germany 5 Kingdom 0 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings GNETT, September 2005-2006 Source: Online Publishers Association/Frank N. Magid Associates 64
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Types of video watched U.S., 2006 Daily Once/week Once/month Never Several times/week Several times/month Less than once/month News / current events video 6 14 7 16 13 20 23 Jokes / funny video clips 5 12 9 18 13 23 21 Music videos 5 12 6 13 11 22 31 Movie clips / trailers 4 11 9 17 17 25 18 Weather information 4 8 7 12 9 21 39 Entertainement news 3 8 8 13 10 24 34 Movie reviews 3 7 7 13 12 24 33 TV shows / segments from TV shows 3 7 6 11 11 21 42 Advertisements 3 6 5 9 8 21 48 Sports highlights 2 8 7 9 8 16 50 Short films (less than 30 minutes) 2 6 5 7 9 21 50 Business / financial news videos 2 4 4 7 7 16 61 % 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Online Publishers Association/Frank N. Magid Associates The frequency of watching online video at different locations U.S., 2006 Daily Once/week Once/month Never Several times/week Several times/month Less than once/month Home 14 19 6 23 12 22 4 (N=825) Work 5 11 3 9 7 13 53 (N=484) School (N=338) 3 4 2 8 4 8 71 Public places using wireless internet access 2 3 1 4 3 9 78 (N=484) % 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Online Publishers Association/Frank N. Magid Associates 65
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER on a daily or weekly basis. As for online According to a 2005 online video survey advertising, 48 percent of the respondents have conducted by the Online Publishers never watched it, but 14 percent watch it at Association and Frank N. Magid Associates, least on a weekly basis. after watching an online video, 56 percent of ad viewers will do nothing in response. 31 In terms of the locations, home is by far the percent will investigate a Web site, and 14 place most people watch online videos, and 14 percent will check out the product in the store. percent of respondents watch online video at Another 14 percent will actually request more home every day. On the other hand, more than information about the product or services. 50 percent said they have never watched online video at work, and 70 percent said they have However, less than 10 percent of people will never watched online video at school. make a purchase, sign up for a product or service trial, or order a subscription. This ONLINE VIDEO ADVERTISING indicates that online video advertising is more Online video advertising is more like a trigger for likely to trigger interest in a product or service the interests in the product or services, rather than than serve as the direct purchase catalyst for the direct purchase catalyst for the consumers. consumers. Results of watching an online video ad (U.S., 2006) Base: 823 online video ad viewers Check out a web site Signed up for a product / service trial Gone to the store to check out a product Ordered a subscription Requested more information about a product or service Other % Forwarded a video ad to friends / family members Never done anything in response to a video ad 60 Made a purchase 56 50 40 30 31 20 10 14 14 10 8 2 2 0 5 Source: Online Publishers Association/Frank N. Magid Associates 66
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 3. Impact on newspaper industry The world’s media consumers are shifting publishers, the point should be obvious: the toward multiple media usage patterns, future resides on many publishing platforms. including traditional media. Indeed, despite an upswing in digital media consumption There is no question that the data on usage worldwide, people access news and patterns and revenue trends showcases information across all media. And while online significant opportunities for growth. advertising spending bounds upward at Much of the research documented in this double-digit percentages, purchases of chapter has come from Europe or the United advertising continues to grow across media. States. However, these findings are likely to The data collected for this yearbook show that apply for other regions, as well. We are headed patterns of media consumption depend on a toward an increasingly multimedia world. variety of demographic factors and consumer Each media has its strengths, and news preference factors, including: consumers gravitate toward individual media • Age for the qualities that are important to them. If • Gender news consumers are looking for breaking news • Income about a train crash, they are likely to tune in to • Education TV, or log onto a news website. In a 2006 • Device preferences study by Pew in the United States, regular • Location (Home, work, traveling) news consumers of news from television, • Time of day newspapers and the Internet ranked media based on a variety of compelling qualities for The data in this chapter show that while major each medium. Respondents ranked the Internet shifts are taking place on the media landscape as the most convenient (39 percent), compared in advertising and usage patterns, news media with newspapers (32 percent) and TV (14 is still a growing industry. For newspaper percent.) Newspapers were rated number one 67
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Features that distinguish news media % Based on regular news consumer of each medium, U.S. 60 60 TV News Newspapers Internet 50 52 46 40 42 40 39 37 30 32 25 26 20 22 19 14 13 14 10 12 11 11 10 7 6 5 2 5 5 0 Features Convenient Like to Easy Coverage Specific Has more Updated Concise Diversity of the accessible watch/read to use/ and subjects in-depth breaking brief/ of medium quick visual navigate content of interest coverage news to the point sources Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 in specific subjects of interest (26 percent), information from other Web sites, the strategy compared with TV (22 percent) and Internet (5 for publishers is to encourage incoming traffic percent). TV ranked highest in coverage and with high quality, compelling blogs. content (52 percent), compared with An emerging publishing opportunity comes newspapers (42 percent) and Internet (40 from mobile devices. Already, news, weather percent), according to the 2006 Biennial News and sports are among the most popular content Consumption Survey from Pew. accessed on the Mobile Web, according to the More importantly, news consumers are Online News Association’s March 2007 study accessing news online in record numbers. on mobile phone users in Europe and the Many of them get their news via newspaper United States. Web sites, blogs, or on mobile devices, and regardless of channel they want news in multiple formats, such as audio, video and text. Forward-thinking newspaper companies Advertising spending worldwide, have been adding these publishing channels to by media, 2005-2009 their businesses, and have integrated these Cinema Radio TV platforms into their news production Internet Magazines workflows. Outdoor/Others Newspapers US$ millions In fact, since many news users hop from Web 500,000 2,272 site to Web site and even device to device over 42,685 the course of a single day, publishers need to 1,697 29,126 400,000 39,548 develop promotions and linkages to drive traffic 18,712 21,769 62,078 as it migrates from one media to the next. 34,348 300,000 52,993 135,228 Of particular note to news companies is the rise 119,178 of news blogs. Blogs can drive enormous traffic 200,000 to news Web sites, and that traffic can be 184,502 remarkably diverse: online news has grown 151,187 exponentially around the world and among 100,000 every demographic group (though it trends male and younger than the audience that typically 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 access a news Web site). Since the nature of Note: Currency conversion at 2005 average blogs is to aggregate interesting pieces of Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2006 68
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Mobile Internet users are heavy consumers of content across verticals both via mobile and PC Internet % acceding on PC PC only Mobile only Both mobile or both Local/national news 51 6 23 80 Weather 37 10 31 78 Product info/reviews 57 5 14 76 Technology news 51 4 15 70 Lifestyles 51 3 12 66 International news 47 3 15 65 Health news/info 51 2 9 62 Sport news/highlights/scores 29 6 22 57 Entertainment news 36 5 13 54 Business/financial news 33 3 10 46 Stock quotes 22 2 10 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Source: Online Publishers Association, OPA Europe, 2007 Newspapers advertising readership in 1994 in the U.S. By 2006, expenditure readership dropped to 38 percent. According to Pew Research, online news sites help It is, then, a time of transition from the newspapers stem the drop in readership. traditional focused media landscape to a Estimated readership for online and print multiple media landscape. But this transition together was five percentage points higher than does not mean that newspaper companies must print alone. Similar studies were done by cannibalise their existing product. Zenith Scarborough Research on 100 top newspapers Optimeda projects that advertising levels will in the Unites States, with virtually the same rise for all media between 2005 and 2009, results. including the US $180 billion newspaper industry. In the same period, though, Internet Both Scarborough Research and Pew show advertising will more than double, reaching that newspapers can add a minimum of a five US$42.7 billion. percent uptick in unduplicated market reach when combining their online newspaper and No wonder newspaper companies are trying to printed newspaper reach statistics. New build strong digital media units. The challenge research is beginning to show that branded for newspaper companies is to ensure that their content on mobile phones also is expanding high-yield, high-volume print advertising the market share for newspaper companies. business does not suffer while digital media revenues grow. Some companies project their digital units will make up 50 percent of their newspaper company’s revenues within 10 Online newspapers help stem years (6.3 Advertising Best Practices). Indeed, drop in readership, U.S. innovative newspaper publisher Schibsted in % Newspapers yesterday 60 Scandinavia reports they will make half of Including max online (estimated) their profits online this year. In addition, 58 Print version (estimated) newspapers can stem or reverse losses in their 50 50 market reach, as the unique usership of their 48 47 43 newspaper Web sites is expanding at double- 40 40 digit paces. 41 42 38 30 Just as online newspapers appeared on the 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 scene, newspapers garnered a 58 percent Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 69
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER PC content brands drive usage on mobile web worldwide PC Internet brand Offline brands Mobile brands only Technology news 73 21 13 Stock quotes 69 29 12 Businessl news 66 31 15 Health news/info 65 27 17 Product info/reviews 64 27 18 Weather 63 18 25 Local/national news 63 31 19 International news 62 26 24 Sport news 61 25 26 Lifestyles 60 27 24 Entertainment news 58 26 27 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Source: Online Publishers Association, OPA Europe, 2007 Digital media are gaining advertising and nearly 50 percent. Online news, meanwhile, usage share, and will continue to do so for the has grown from zero to over 30 percent reach foreseeable future. But some studies in a dozen years. underscore the power of the trusted media Local TV remains the top news source for brand as media companies expand into new Americans. In 2006, 57 percent of people got media channels. The Online Publishers news from television yesterday, and 40 and 36 Association, for example, showed that having percent from newspapers and radio, an existing online and offline brand were far respectively. Only 23 percent of American more likely to drive traffic to mobile Web respondents accessed news from the Internet content than from mobile-only brands. For yesterday. example, 87 percent of technology news, 88 percent of stock quotes, and 84 percent of TV also captures more of consumers’ time business news on the mobile Web were from than any other medium. People spend an either PC Internet brands or an offline brand. average of nearly one hour per day per user. In contrast, the Internet captures the users’ News sources No one doubts the Internet has become an People who get news online increasingly important source of news for Millions on a typical day, U.S. consumers. According to a U.S. survey by Pew of adults Internet Project in December 2005, those who 50 get their news online on a typical day 40 44 increased from 19 million in March 2000 to 44 41 million in December 2005—a growth of 132 35 30 34 percent in 5 years. 27 Another Pew study showed the frequency of 25 20 media usage by exploring how often users, 19 viewers and readers consume which type of 10 media. For example, in the early 1990s, local TV was the dominant news medium, with 0 Mar. Feb. Mar. Feb. Feb. Jan. Dec. nearly 80 percent reach. However, by 2006 the 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 reach of local TV news had decreased to Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 Survey 70
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS News media consumption, U.S. News sources by medium People who get news online and the time spent, U.S. Regularly watch… Listened/read yesterday… on a typical day, U.S. Millions TV news Local Radio (% of audience who) of adults TV news Cable Newspapers 50 Nightly network news Online news three or more Got news there yesterday Network morning news days per week For 30 minutes or more % 44 % Average minutes spent per user 40 80 41 60 70 35 57 53 30 34 50 60 48 43 50 (1) 27 40 40 25 40 20 40 (1) 36 32 30 30 19 20 20 24 23 10 22 10 10 (2) 0 9 0 1993 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 0 Mar. Feb. Mar. Feb. Feb. Jan. Dec. Television Newspaper Radio Internet (1) From 1994 2001 2000 2002 1995 (2) From 2003 2004 2005 2005 Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 Survey attention for more than half an hour per day per user. Where did you get the news A good reason for newspapers to expand their yesterday? U.S., by age group (%) platform is audience creep. Older generations 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ News yesterday tend to get their news from traditional news Watch TV news 49 53 63 69 sources, including TV and newspapers. But the Read a newspaper 24 36 47 58 Readership Institute at Northwestern Listen to radio news 26 43 39 27 Get news online 24 29 21 10 University found that younger Americans, Other activities yesterday especially between age 30 and 49, are more Went online (home work) 62 62 52 21 likely to get news online. Watch non-news TV 61 60 69 66 Exercised/ran/sports 56 46 38 35 For the youngest generation of American news Watch movie at home 40 23 21 12 Read a book 41 34 39 39 consumers, those between 18 and 34, local TV Played video game 28 15 14 11 news is rated as the most important new source Read a magazine 24 20 24 33 by 31 percent, while the Internet was also Source: Readership Institute, Reader Behavior Scores Study 2006 Most important sources for learning about news, % by age and gender, U.S. 50 Total Men 18-24 Men 25-34 Women 18-24 Women 25-34 40 42 36 30 31 31 31 27 25 20 19 20 17 17 14 14 13 10 12 11 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 5 0 Local TV The Internet Newspapers Cable TV National newscasts general news network TV Source: “Abandoning the News,” Carnegie Corporation of New York, 2006 programs newscasts 71
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Frequency of using news sources among young generation, U.S. (18-34) Once a day or more Few times a month Never Not everyday but at least once a week Once a month or less 44 Web portals 18 12 10 12 Local TV newcasts 37 35 13 9 6 Network or cable TV 19 18 websites 16 19 25 Newspapers 19 34 16 17 12 Cable TV 18 25 general news 18 programs 18 19 National TV 16 30 network newcasts 20 18 14 Newspapers 14 18 websites 14 22 28 Local TV station 12 16 websites 14 24 30 Cable TV 11 23 non-news networks 17 16 30 Cable TV 8 14 news talk programs 12 20 43 8 Late night talk shows 21 19 22 29 National network 5 21 news magazines 24 26 21 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: “Abandoning the News,” 2006, Carnegie Corporation of New York rated important by 25 percent, according to the News sources on the typical day Carnegie Corporation’s “Abandoning the U.S. (%) News” study. All Non-internet Dial-up at Broadband Gender also influences how people choose respondents users home at home Local TV 59 57 65 57 news sources. For example, 42 percent of National TV 47 43 50 49 women aged 25 to 34 consider local TV Radio 44 34 52 49 newscasts most important, compared with only Local paper 38 37 41 38 Internet 23 – 26 43 27 percent of men in that age range. National paper 12 8 12 17 Conversely, 31 percent of 18 to 24 year old Average number 2.22 1.80 2.45 2.52 of sources men rated the Internet most important, Number of cases 3,011 1,080 633 1,014 compare with only 17 percent of women. Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 Survey 72
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Getting news Online news sources, U.S. from new technologies (%) % of U.S. respondents who get news by: Percent in each group All internet Dial-up Broadband who have EVER gone users internet internet 15 to these sites users users National TV news site 46 40 52 Cell phone (CNN or MSNBC) 12 13 PDA Portal (Google, Yahoo) 39 35 44 Podcast Local daily paper 32 31 36 9 10 Local TV news site 31 31 33 Once or more 8 National daily paper 20 17 24 6 7 Site of radio news 13 10 16 6 organization 3 4 4 4 International news sites 12 9 15 3 3 3 (BBC or al Jazeera) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 News blogs 9 6 12 0 65+ Alternative news 6 5 7 Total 18-29 30-49 50-64 organization Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 Online list serves 5 5 5 Have gone to at least 73 70 79 one of these sites Technology matters, as well. For instance, Have gone to at least 56 54 61 two of these sites broadband users in the U.S., are more likely to Have gone to at least 41 39 45 get news on the Internet than those with dial- three of these sites Have gone to at least 31 30 34 up access, according to a Pew study. In four of these sites addition, the Internet expands the average Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 Survey number of news sources for respondents. Broadband users reported consulting an average of 2.52 news sources on a typical day, The last time visiting while dial-up users consulted 2.45, and non- newspaper website, U.S. (%) Internet users only 1.8. 2006 2005 2003 Today 2 3 2 Another Pew study explored the usage patterns Yesterday 2 2 2 Within the last 7 days 6 7 5 of a variety of new technologies from which to Within the last 14 days 2 3 2 access news. Respondents reported whether Within the last 30 days 2 3 4 they have ever accessed the news via mobile Longer than 30 days 18 18 15 Never accessed Web site 67 64 70 phone, PDA, or podcast, and fewer than 10 Total 100 100 100 percent of the respondents said they had. As Source: Readership Institute, Reader Behavior Scores Study 2006 one would expect, younger respondents were more likely to access news by new technologies. A Carnegie Corporation study, Online news audience, U.S. found that young people aged 18 to 34 are % of the population more likely to access news from Web portals who regularly get news online % (44 percent) or local TV newscasts (37 50 percent) once a day or more, compared with 47 2000 40 42 2006 newspapers (19 percent), though even papers 37 outranked newspaper Web sites (14 percent). 30 31 31 29 30 31 30 20 25 23 Online newspapers users 19 10 11 The Reader Behavior Scores Study 2006 8 0 conducted by Readership Institute has been Total 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Change +8 +1 +11 +17 +12 +12 +3 reporting U.S. newspaper website usage trends Source: Pew Research Center Biennial News Consumption Survey 2006 since 2003. The number of Americans who have ever visited newspaper websites climbed with most change – especially from age 30 to from 30 percent in 2003 to 36 percent in 2005, 34, which saw a 17 percent jump in the though it slipped back to 33 percent in 2006. number of people who get their news online, According to Pew, the U.S. online news surpassing 25 to 29 year olds as the largest audience reach has grown from 23 percent in category of online news readers. Meanwhile, 2000 to 31 percent in 2006. Broken down by respondents over age 65 represent a growing age groups, the middle age groups are those online news-seeking population, at 11 percent. 73
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Numbers of people visiting news and information news sites Millions 100 116,3 80 60 40 20 26,2 22,8 17,8 16,6 11,7 8,6 7,9 7,3 2,6 0 United Japan Germany United France Italy Brazil Spain Australia Switzerland States Kingdom Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland Percentage of Internet population visiting news % and information news sites 80 70 74 74 69 67 60 64 64 63 61 60 59 50 40 30 20 10 0 United France Switzerland United Germany Australia Brazil Spain Japan Italy States Kingdom Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland % Growth of people visiting news and information news sites 30 25 27,6 20 18,7 15 14,9 10 11,7 10,1 9,7 5 6,6 4,7 3,1 -0,5 0 Brazil Japan France Australia Spain Germany Switzerland United United Italy States Kingdom -5 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland 74
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Numbers of people visiting current events and global news sites Millions 100 90,2 80 60 40 20 16,7 14,3 12,1 10,4 7,5 6,8 6,1 5,4 1,7 0 United Japan Germany United France Italy Brazil Spain Australia Switzerland States Kingdom Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland Percentage of Internet population visiting current events % and global news sites 60 57 50 50 48 47 46 46 46 40 40 38 38 30 20 10 0 United Brazil Spain Australia France Switzerland United Germany Italy Japan States Kingdom Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland % Growth of people visiting current events and global news sites 30 29.2 25 20 19.9 15 17.3 14.7 10 12 8.8 5 7.4 5.3 5 0.4 0 Brazil Japan Australia France Switzerland Spain United Germany United Italy Kingdom States Source: Nielsen//NetRatings NetView. September 2006. Home & work data, and home-only data for Brazil, Japan, Spain and Switzerland 75
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER WORLD‘S MOST POPULAR NEWS SITES The world’s most popular Given the U.S.’s huge population of Internet news sites users, and its relatively large percentage of Rank Brand Active Unique users who get news online, it’s little surprise Channel Reach Audience (%) (millions) that most of the world’s most popular news 1 Yahoo! News 12.2 36.9 sites are in the U.S. But none of the top five are 2 MSNBC 9.0 27.3 sites related to traditional newspapers. 3 CNN 8.8 26.7 4 AOL News 7.4 22.3 According to Nielsen NetRatings Global Index 5 Google News 5.7 17.4 in September 2006, Yahoo! News is the world’s 6 NYTimes 4.5 13.7 7 BBC News 4.3 13.1 most popular news site, with 36.9 million 8 Gannett Newspapers 4.3 13.0 unique users, with a 12.2 percent reach. 9 Internet Broadcasting 3.9 12.0 MSNBC, CNN, and AOL News also have Websites 10 USA TODAY 3.7 11.3 significant unique audiences of more than 20 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings Global Index September 2006. million each. The New York Times site is 6th. Home & work data. Global statistics, except Japan The most accessed news sources online were Mobile phones the Web sites of national TV news broadcasters, Publishing news to mobile devices appears like such as CNN.com or MSNBC.com. Google or an excellent opportunity for publishers. Yahoo! and local daily paper sites also rank According to a study of mobile users in high in traffic, according to the Pew study. Europe and the United States by Online Publishers Association in March 2007, mobile NEWS AND INFORMATION NEWS SITES access to news and information will experience In United States, 116.3 million people visited a strong growth in 2007. news and information sites, far more than users in any other country in the survey by Nielsen NetRatings in 2006. In addition, 74 More mobile Internet usage in percent of the Internet population in US (74 next 12 months, by income ranges percent) and France (74 percent) usually visit In the next year, do you believe you will news and information sites. spend more time accessing the Internet % on your mobile device? Brazil has the fastest-growing online news 30 audience, with a 27.6 percent growth rate, 25 29 followed by Japan at 18.7 percent. Italy, 20 22 meanwhile, was the only country studied to 15 15 show a decline in usage of news websites. 10 5 CURRENT EVENTS AND GLOBAL NEWS 0 SITES Low income Medium income High income < $50,000 < $50,000 - $100,000 > $100,000 According to Nielsen NetRatings, in the < 38,500 < 38,500 - 77,000 > 77,000 (n=699) (n=431) (n=171) United States, 90.2 million people visited Respondents who use mobile Internet (n=1678) current events and global news sites during Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 September 2006, which accounts for 57 percent of the overall Internet population in US. In Japan, 16.7 million people visiting Mobile Internet penetration current events and global news sites, vs. mobile Internet usage % accounting for 38 percent of overall Internet 100 Mobile Internet penetration Mobile Web use users. 80 83 81 81 In terms of audience growth, Brazil is the 76 60 71 64 fastest-growing population of current events 54 40 and global news site users, with 29.2 percent 41 34 41 40 40 growth, while Japan has a 19.9 percent growth. 20 The Unites States’ growth rate is low, only 5 0 United United France Italy Germany Spain percent, attributed to its more established States Kingdom Internet market. Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 76
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Time spent on PC Internet since accessing mobile Internet % (Mobile Internet users) 120 More time Same time Less time 100 18 18 17 21 15 16 17 15 80 79 85 79 83 78 73 75 79 60 40 20 4 9 4 4 6 3 2 0 World United Europe United France Italy Germany Spain (n=1651) States (n=1460) Kingdom (n=173) (n=316) (n=276) (n=282) (n=191) (n=413) Source: Online Publishers Association/OPA Europe/TNS, December 2006 Among users in Europe and the U.S., weather, On average, 96 percent of the respondents said sports, news and stock quotes are the most mobile Internet consumption does not replace popular categories of content accessed by mobile PC Internet consumption, with 18 percent of Web users. Paid content and advertising on the respondents reporting that mobile Internet mobiles also is taking off, according to the survey. actually increases the Internet time spent on PC. The penetration of mobile Web capability is between about 70 percent and 80 percent, with News blogs the highest penetrations in Italy, Germany, and Spain. It should be noted that just because Blogs have emerged as one of the most phones can access the Web doesn’t mean powerful traffic drivers of news and people do it. In fact, the highest usage rates for information, especially among the younger the mobile Web is in the United Kingdom (54 generation. According to Technorati, which percent), followed by Italy and the United tracks more than 74.5 million blogs, the States, with 41 percent each. blogosphere is doubling about every 6.5 months, and more than two blogs are created Income is a key driver of increased time with each second. the mobile Internet. Only 15 percent of respondents earning under US$50,000 expect to spend more time accessing the Internet on their mobile device next year, while 22 percent Blog highlights of those earning between US$50,000 and Ë On July 31, 2006, Technorati tracked its US$100,000 and 29 percent of those earning 50 millionth blog. over US$100,000 expect to spend more time Ë The blogosphere is doubling about once on the mobile Web. every 6 and a half months. Both US and EU respondents cite weather and Ë About 175,000 new weblogs are created sports news as the most sought-after mobile each day. Web content. U.S. respondents, tend to access Ë There are more than 2 blogs created the mobile Web more often than their EU each second of each day. counterparts (outside of the UK and Italy). Ë About 1.6 Million postings per day, or about 18.6 posts per second The study allayed fears that mobile Web would Source: Technorati, July 2006 cannibalise PC Internet content consumption. 77
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Unique audience growth Estimated audiences among top 10 online newspapers of the most popular news blogs and their blog pages, U.S. in the U.S., December 2006 (Home and work) 1,500,000 Top 10 online newspapers UEA Growth 1,200,000 (000) Blog pages within online newspapers (%) 35,000 Year-over-year growth 250 900,000 210 30,000 200 600,000 29,940 25,000 27,371 300,000 20,000 150 0 15,000 100 om es e om om at m .c G .c c 10,000 Ti on Y. t o os rk DA sc st 50 np Yo ci Bo TO 5,000 3,776 an to ew SA 9 ng Fr 1,217 N U hi n e 0 0 Sa as Th W Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-06 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings, December 2006 Source: Nielsen//NetRatings, December 2006 Who visits news blogs, U.S. Readership of blogs Regularly Sometimes Hardly ever Never % of respondents having read 100 % one in past week 40 35 Individual 80 30 Newspaper 25 60 20 40 15 10 20 5 0 0 United United France Denmark Total Men Women 18-24 25-29 30-49 50-64 65+ States Kingdom Source: Pew, 2006 Biennial Media Consumption survey Source: Telegraph Media Group/Metro International Survey, May 2006 In December 2006, unique visitors to blogs Year-over-year growth affiliated with the largest Internet newspapers at top 10 online newspapers rose to 3.8 million, from 1.2 million viewers a blog pages year earlier, a dramatic 210 percent increase. % 250 However, unique visitors to newspaper Web sites rose from 27.4 million to 30 million, a 200 Male mere 9 percent growth rate. 226% 150 Female Who actually reads news blogs? According to 183% Pew’s 2006 Media Consumption Survey, men 100 and younger readers are more likely to visit 50 news blogs. 0 More specifically, Nielsen NetRatings Source: Nielsen//NetRatings, December 2006 indicates that as of December 2006, news blog readers’ profile is much more male-skewed Accordingly, newspapers companies have than online newspapers readers’ profile. launched blogs to attract more audience. Moreover, male blog readership is growing by According to Nielsen NetRatings, as of 226 percent, while female readership is December 2006, blog pages accounted for 13 growing by 183 percent at the top 10 online percent of overall visits to newspaper sites, up newspapers’ blog pages from December 2005 from 4 percent a year earlier. to December 2006. 78
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Gender composition at top 10 online newspapers and their blog pages December 2006 Newspapers Blog pages Female Female 40% 34% Male Male 60% 66% Source: Nielsen//NetRatings, December 2006 Inbound blog sources for mainstream media New York Times Yahoo! News MSNBC CNN Washington Post BBC USA Today NHK San Francisco Chronicle ABC News Los Angeles Times Google News Guardian Unlimited Reuters Wired Asahi.com CNET News.com Times Online The Boston Globe Forbes The San Jose Mercury News CNN Money.com Yomiuri Online NPR Topix.net Fox News CBS News Business Week 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Source: Technorati, June 2006 79
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER According to the Metro International Survey conducted by Telegraph Media Group in May 2006, the United States has the highest reach on either individual blogs or newspapers blogs – 40 percent of respondents have read an individual blog in past week, while nearly 25 percent have read a newspapers blog. In the United Kingdom, France and Denmark, bringing the average news blog penetration to less than 15 percent. The most popular news blogs in the United States, as of December 2006, are on USATODAY.com, with the estimated audience of 1.29 million. The New York Times draws an estimated 1.17 million audience for its blogs, while SFGate.com, Washingtonpost.com, and Boston.com have audiences of more than 300,000 each. Outside the U.S., other news Web sites drawing significant blog traffic include Guardian Limited and Times Online in the UK, and Asahi.com and Yomiuri Online in Japan. 80
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 4. Newspaper industry digital trends Pioneering media companies look to global For most of the world, online advertising is trends to build content and business strategies, growing at a steep rate, 30 to 50 percent adapting ideas for their individual annually, on average, and looks to do so for the marketplaces. foreseeable future. The key trends emerging among media Meanwhile, mobile phone penetration and companies are advertising and subscription Internet usage has begun to plateau, as the schemes (for mobile and Internet), new phones have reach near-ubiquity. Mobile Web storytelling forms (for Web TV and mobile), applications are expanding, encouraging media and new tools that let users contribute companies to develop new kinds of mobile- multimedia content to news websites. oriented content, including text, photos, Another trend is the overall maturing of digital ringtone, music and video. media. News companies need to adjust to this trend both now and in the future. For instance, Despite ongoing rapid growth in Internet in several regions of the United States, news advertising, Internet usage is stabilising, after websites have sold-out advertising inventories an enormous influx of Internet immigrants in for 2007, even as annual Internet advertising the last few years. Some media companies in buying is slowing from an average of 30 the developed world are bracing for a percent growth to a 20 percent growth rate. slowdown from annual double-digit traffic The inventory challenge allows companies to growth to perhaps single-digit growth patterns raise their advertising prices. But media after 2010. Others are looking to maintain companies also are challenged with finding growth through developing new, high-traffic new ways to expand advertising inventory, content to maintain the growth, including especially by creating niche websites that can breaking news, and user-generated content, attract targeted traffic and thus command such as local YouTube replicas, blogs and higher prices for advertising. photo sharing. 81
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Internet usage Revenues Though Norway is a country of only 4.5 While less than 10 percent of overall media million people, and Sweden of about 9 million adspend is earmarked for Internet around the people, major newspapers see enormous world, according to PriceWaterhouse Coopers traffic. Norway’s VG.com reported almost 1.3 and Zenith Optimedia, several media million daily unique usership in the 1st companies are far ahead of the trend. Oslo- quarter, 2007, while Aftonbladet reported 4 based Schibsted reports that about 40 percent million unique visitors in Week 10 of 2007. of its revenues and almost 50 percent of its profit in 2007 will come primarily from digital Meanwhile, in the United States, with its 300 advertising. The Wall Street Journal/Dow million people, monthly unique audiences Jones in the USA; Fairfax in Australia; and appear comparatively smaller. The New York WashingtonPost.com in USA all report that Times site, for example, did not quite reach 13 their digital operations will exceed 10 percent million users in February 2007, while of their parent companies’ overall revenues USAToday.com had just more than 9 million this year. monthly users. U.S. and Scandinavian statistics are not directly comparable, of In most of the world, classifieds revenues course. The number of daily unique users earn far more than half of the revenues on typically makes up most of a news site’s “core news Web sites.,The other two main forms of audience,” and therefore, does not revenue-making on Web sites are proportionally grow over the month. Also, sponsorships and cost per thousand, or different research companies have compiled “CPM”-based display advertising. As each set of statistics, and each company uses advertising becomes more in demand, prices different methodologies. for inventory are rising in some cases beyond print advertising prices in Scandinavia. Norway’s VG.no has 85,000 Euro-per-day Top U.S. news websites revenue potential and charges about 26,000 Unique visitors and average time spent Euro for its front-page banner ad. On In thousands of unique users, Aftonbladet.se, the home page banner ads February 2007 command 20,000 Euro per day and the NYTimes.com 12,960 – 0:37:09 “triple widescreen” – the wide right-hand USATODAY.com 9,050 – 0:22:08 column ad – fetches 12,000 Euro per day. Washingtonpost.com 8,030 – 0:20:28 LA Times 4,546 – 0:12:08 Wall Street Journal Online 3,436 – 0:15:50 The Houston Chronicle 3,292 – 0:20:44 SFGate.com 3,236 – 0:14:56 Boston.com 3,197 – 0:20:56 Chicago Tribune 2,973 – 0:13:44 New York Post 2,684 – 0:09:01 Daily News Online Edition 2,555 – 0:05:04 Chicago Sun-Times 2,142 – 0:08:13 Orlando Sentinel 2,049 – 0:06:21 Newsday 2,047 – 0:0513 MercuryNews.com 1,950 – 0:04:42 Azcentral.com 1,858 – 0:08:48 The Seattle Times 1,810 – 0:09:19 The San Diego Union-Tribune 1,699 – 0:04:58 Seattle Post-Intelligencer 1,698 – 0:06:48 International Herald Tribune 1,685 – 0:02:23 MiamiHerald.com 1,644 – 0:11:54 Sun-Sentinel 1,630 – 0:10:52 The Washington Times 1,607 – 0:04:15 Ottaway Newspapers 1,557 – 0:06:00 Atlanta Journal-Constitution 1,429 – 0:31:29 Star Tribune 1,385 – 0:23:32 Village Voice Media 1,377 – 0:04:07 DallasNews.com 1,358 – 0:08:10 The Detroit News 1,273 – 0:12:34 Philly.com 1,243 – 0:17:32 Source: Nielsen NetRatings, February 2007 82
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Schibsted’s operating profit for online (EBITA) 60 57 Share of reported operating profit 49 50 Share of operating profit adjusted to new initiatives 45 43 40 41 34 33 37 37 30 24 29 29 23 30 20 20 15 13 15 15 10 8 6 1 2 0 0 -2 -4 -10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Schibsted In the United States, the prices and ad units are VG.no growth less lucrative than in Europe. The Atlanta in online revenue and profit Journal-Constitution’s AJC.com is the 25th 225 largest news site in the U.S., and charges 200 Revenue Operating profit 42% between US$5,250 and US$5,950 per day for 175 large ad units on the home page. Small sites, 150 such as the websites for regional papers in the 125 42% Morris Newspapers group, charge between 100 US$12 and US$14 CPM for home page ad 75 29% units. 50 12% -15% Everywhere, targeted, niche advertising -65% -93% 25 -120% fetches higher prices. For example, -110% 0 NYTimes.com and VG.no report they charge -25 three times the going Internet rate for video ad 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2006 2005 Source: Schibsted units. Targeted ads on niche websites can garner double or triple or more the typical CPM rate. Aftonbladet.se growth in online revenue and profit Video advertising 235 35% At the Dallas Morning News in the U.S., 210 Revenue Operating profit “pre-roll” video advertising will earn about 185 $250,000 in 2007, its inaugural year. At 160 135 22% Aftonbladet.se, video will make 600,000 Euros 110 13% this year, while WebTV traffic is projected to 85 -15% increase the market penetration for the -3% 60 -65% -16% Aftonbladet brand from about 2.7 million daily 6% users for print and Web last year to about 35 10 3.2 million users this year. 0 -15 Video advertising made about US$400,000 for -40 2006 at the Naples Daily News, a small 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Schibsted regional paper in Florida, U.S. 83
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Aftonbladet: Reach growing with digital media Web TV projected to add more reach in 2007 2,500 Online version Both 2,000 Paper version Web TV 1,500 1,500 1,000 500 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Goal Source: Aftonbladet.se 2007 The revenues came from seven sponsors Subscriptions whose advertising appeared on the video’s “pre-roll”, plus contextual advertising placed A variety of subscription schemes have been around the “vodcast” online, and promotion successful for media companies around the advertising in the newspaper, the Naples world. In Japan, more than 1 million mobile Daily News. Much of the video advertising is subscriptions have been sold for news and produced in the company’s video sports content from Asahi Shimbun. In addition, Studio 55. 21,000 total newspaper subscriptions were sold via the mobile service from 2002 to 2006. Asahi Shimbun’s mobile news and sports subscriptions strategy Company Subscription Number Price of Subscriptions The Asahi 0.76/M Approx 1,000,000 B Company 1.52/M Approx 300,000 C Company 2.28/M Approx 1,000,000 Source: Asahi Shimbun, 2006 In Sweden, Aftonbladet has been successful selling a premium content package called “Aftonbladet Plus,” which packages car and electronics product test results, travel holiday information, entertainment gossip and more. The content service drew almost 80,000 subscribers by April 2007. Aftonbladet charges 19 SEK, or 2 Euro per month, for the subscription. 84
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Member development Aftonbladet Plus 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 05 06 07 Source: Aftonbladet Aftonbladet also has been successful with its Banner format Weight Club subscriptions. In 2006, Aftonbladet Weight Club earned 2.4 millon Euro and had 270,000 paying members, who Aftonbladet.se get advice, recipes and access to a community banner formats, prices of people struggling with dieting. Aftonbladet will add its sixth franchised Weight Club, which Panorama now includes Norway, the Netherlands, 980x120 px 20.000 /day Germany, Finland, Switzerland, and soon, Italy. The Wall Street Journal continues to expand its Triple widescreen 250x3600 px subscription reach online. From Q1 2006 to Q1 12.000 /day 2007, WSJ.com subscriptions rose 20 percent from 776,000 to 931,000. A subscription promotion offering a one-year online and print subscription for US$99 was largely credited Source: Aftonbladet with the growth in online subscriptions. Daily prices for advertising on AJC.com ay ay ,25 d ,95 d y k $5 k $5 0 da dblo c bloc 5,95 Roa ad rd $ e e Ro llb oa e Pag e Pa g in g Bi Hom Hom Slid • Home page ads generated US$1.2 million in 2006 Source: CoxNet • Ad inventory almost sold out for 2007 85
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER Mobile revenues Digital content Mobile revenues are starting to take off at Digital content is the traffic driver that makes media companies, and appear to be the next websites attractive to advertisers. A variety of frontier in revenuemaking. Aftonbladet in new forms of digital storytelling are driving Sweden in 2006 made 600,000 Euro from significant traffic to news websites. Among the mobile revenues, while the DallasNews.com biggest traffic beneficiaries are blogs, video, expects to make US$500,000 in mobile photos and breaking news. sponsorship packages online and on mobile. NYTimes.com, WashingtonPost.com, CoxNet, based in Atlanta, U.S., is expanding CNN.com, BBC.co.uk, MSNBC.com, its mobile sponsorship sales. One example of a Guardian.co.uk, Asahi.com, Yomiuri.com and successful campaign was an 8-month TimesOnline.co.uk are among the biggest sponsorship package with Delta Airlines on recipients of traffic from blogs, according to AJC.com and its mobile channels for Technorati.com, drawing between 22,000 to US$40,000. 80,000 daily unique visitors from blog readers per day. VG.no has implemented a four-step content Mobile sponsorships at AJC.com strategy to drive traffic to the website: 2007 1. Blogging, Oct. 2005. VG.no has more than Delta Airlines 12,000 blogs on any given day Sponsor ajc.com‘s WAP site from 2. Lists (Best of car models, popular Feb-Sept 2007 restaurants, etc.), June 2006 • 96x16 ad unit and text link will run 3. Community (social networks, user- on all the page of generated news) September 2006 the WAP sites accessed from either a PDA or a 4. Video sharing (Snutter.no, a Norwegian- Cell phone language YouTube), March 2007 • Sponsor all text alerts sent to mobile phones excluding breaking news and am news Total investment: $40,000 Source: CoxNet 86
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS The Bakersfield Californian in the U.S. has created its social networking equivalent of MySpace.com for the Bakersfield, California region called Baktopia. The site features listings and interactivity centered around local bands, events and socializing. Users create profiles, and bands upload music, blogs and podcasts. Grass-roots marketing, profiles, social networking are the traffic drivers. Profiles, photos and music get more traffic than articles. The users’ interactivity is the content! The digital landscape is inspiring media companies around the world to develop and implement content and revenue strategies. The media companies have learned a handful of important lessons about developing their digital roadmaps: 1. More traffic means more revenue, either through subscription or advertising 2. Content drives traffic 3. Content mix is important, and should include breaking news, interactive features, community-generated content and information to enhance users’ lives 4. Digital media executives should be students of the emerging digital landscape to learn about trends as they happen, and to quickly implement these ideas in their own marketplaces 87
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER 88
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 5. Conclusion The global newspaper business continues to be levels have all but flattened. Meanwhile, a robust industry, with 2 million employees, worldwide mobile subscribership is projected 1.4 billion readers each day, and earning to level off in about 2011, according to the US$180 billion in advertising and newspaper UK-based Informa research company. sales each year. But the industry is in The slowdown signals an eventual stabilisation transition, facing the slow decline of its high- of the unpredictable nature of the Internet and volume, high-yield print advertising market mobile landscape, and eventually, the share and the challenge of growing its low- slowdown of its double-digit annual revenue yield digital revenue business. growth. The World Digital Media Trends yearbook has In the U.S., the top research firms all predict a captured some key trends that create a digital significant slowdown in online advertising compass for the world’s media strategists. In revenue growth in the coming years. the short term, some of the most notable trends are emerging media channels that provide an Indeed, four major U.S. research firms, Borrell opportunity to grow market share and Associates, Forrester Research, Jupiter mindshare in the ever-fragmenting media Research and PricewaterhouseCoopers, predict marketplace. The mobile and online channels high single digit-growth after 2007. These may help newspaper publishers counter an nationwide numbers have impact on the environment where competition for newspaper industry in the U.S., and have consumer’s time and advertising dollars have implications for the rest of the world because never been so challenging. U.S. and Scandinavian Internet revenue trends tend to lead the way for the rest of the world. At the same time, mobile and Internet channels may have almost reached saturation levels of The dozens of graphics about leading digital usership and subscribership. In the United websites and leading digital revenue-makers States and Scandinavia, Internet usership outside of the newspaper industry underscore 89
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER U.S. online advertising spending, 2006 projections (US$ billions) Research firm 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Borrell 17.5 20.3 22.4 23.6 23.3 21.4 Forrester 14.7 17.4 19.9 22.O 24.1 26.1 Jupiter 12.9 15.7 17.7 19.7 21.6 23.6 PwC 12.5 15.6 18.5 21.3 23.5 25.5 Source: Research firms, 2006 that the definition of competition has changed several Digital Hot Spots around the world, for newspaper companies. No longer can they including Scandinavian countries, Korea and think only locally – digital media competition Japan. The Hot Spots have two common forces newspaper players to think locally and characteristics: the highest Internet penetration globally. Newspapers now must sell local, and the highest mobile phone subscriber national and international ads for their digital penetrations in the world. products. Increasingly, Google and Yahoo! are considered competitors for local online These digital Hot Spots are leaders in the advertising as both companies ratchet up their march toward more digital media penetration search advertising strategy to a multitude of around the world. Next year, WDMT expects local marketplaces. The search advertising to index yet more digital hotspots in the world, market has rapidly become one of the biggest as mobile and particularly Internet revenue-makers online, and Google and penetrations increase. Yahoo! are by far the biggest beneficiaries of The research compiled for the World Digital the search revenue. Media Trends show clearly that individual In order to expand market share, newspaper consumers want news in different ways and at companies are launching new products on a different times. In the final analysis, it variety of media channels. Some of the hottest behooves media companies to take advantage channels include video online and on portable of the emerging opportunities in their devices like mobile phones and iPods; marketplace by investing in new methods of blogging, online search advertising, and news publishing and exploring revenue options for online and on mobiles. WDMT has identified these new channels. 90
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS Digital Hot Spots World Association of Newspapers digital index shows countries with combined highest mobile and Internet penetrations Hotter Internet 60%+ Mobile 70% + Australia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States Warmer Internet 40-60% Mobile 65-70% Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Ireland, Italy, Slovak Republic, Spain Cooler Internet <40% Mobile <65% Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China & HK, Colombia, Greece, Hungary, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Venezuela Source: 2005 OECD and Central Intelligence Agency statistics, equally weighted for mobile and Internet 91
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER 92
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS 5. Appendix WDMT research content partners 1. Arbitron Inc. (www.arbitron.com/) 2. BIGresearch (www.bigresearch.com/) 3. Borrell Associates Inc. (www.borrellassociates.com/) 4. Carnegie Corporation of New York (www.carnegie.org/) 5. CDMA Development Group (www.cdg.org/) 6. CIA (https://www.cia.gov/) 7. comScore (www.comscore.com/) 8. Edison Media Research (www.edisonresearch.com/) 9. Electronic Commerce Promotion Council of Japan (www.ecom.jp/ecom_e/) 10. The European Commission (ec.europa.eu/index_en.htm) 11. Frank N. Magid Associates (www.magid.com/) 12. Forrester (www.forrester.com/) 13. Global Mobile Supplier Association (www.gsacom.com/) 14. Informa Telecom & Media (www.informa.com/) 15. Interactive Advertising Bureau (www.iab.net/) 16. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) (www.soumu.go.jp/english/) 17. M:Metrics (www.mmetrics.com/) 18. Morgan Stanley Research (www.morganstanley.com) 19. Nielsen NetRatings (www.nielsen-netratings.com/) 20. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (www.oecd.org/) 21. Online Publishers Association (www.online-publishers.org/) 22. Outsell’s Advertising Tracking Database (www.outsellinc.com) 23. Pew Internet & American Life Project (www.pewinternet.org/) 24. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (www.people-press.org) 25. Piper Jaffray (www.piperjaffray.com/) 26. PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com/) 27. Readership Institute (www.readership.org/) 28. Screen Digest (www.screendigest.com/) 29. Technorati (technorati.com/) 30. Telegraph Media Group (www.telegraph.co.uk/) 31. Telephia (www.telephia.com/) 32. TNS (www.tns-global.com) 33. World Advertising Research Center (www.warc.com/) 34. World Association of Newspapers (www.wan-press.org/) 35. WR Hambrecht + Co. (www.wrhambrecht.com/) 36. Zenith Optimedia (www.zenithoptimedia.com/) 93
    • MAY 2007 SHAPING THE FUTURE OF THE NEWSPAPER 94
    • VOLUME 6 REPORT N° 2 WORLD DIGITAL MEDIA TRENDS THE PUBLISHER World Association of Newspapers 7 rue Geoffroy St-Hilaire 75005 Paris, France Tel.: +33 1 47 42 85 00 Fax: +33 1 47 42 49 48 E-mail: contact_us@wan.asso.fr WORLD ASSOCIATION OF NEWSPAPERS CEO Timothy Balding SFN DIRECTOR Martha L Stone mstone@wan.asso.fr SFN BUSINESS ANALYST Yu-Hsuan Lin EDITOR Michael F. Fitzgerald GRAPHICS AND PAGE DESIGNER Marianne Audouard World Association of Newspapers © WAN May 2007 The contents of this report may be used in whole or part by publishers in the execution of their business. Use of any part of the content or intellectual property herein for the purpose of representation or consulting requires prior written consent of the author. Any reproduction requires prior consent of WAN. 95
    • SPECIAL REPORT Shaping the Future of the Newspaper MAY 2007 © WAN ANALYSING STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PRESS INDUSTRY