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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

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Presentation at the "Creative Leaders Conference". …

Presentation at the "Creative Leaders Conference".
Lisbon, 27 June 2014.
http://creativeleadersconference.wordpress.com

Published in Business , Technology , Education
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  • 1. MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
  • 2. Wait Ο Respond/React Ο Predict Ο Anticipate Ο Explore Ο Imagine Ο Design / Create Ο Decide Ο Act Ο Other Ο WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?
  • 3. Making Decisions in Turbulent and Uncertain Environments
  • 4. 4 “The Long View”
  • 5. 5 Peripheral Vision
  • 6. 6Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006. Sense Making
  • 7. 7Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
  • 8. 8 Multiple Perspectives
  • 9. 9 Global & Systemic View System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
  • 10. 10 Creativity and Imagination IDEO (from Wired)
  • 11. 11 MEGATRENDS
  • 12. 12 Megatrends Global Forces DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS URBANISATION DIGITAL LIFESTYLE GLOBALISATION 2 . 0 CULTURAL DIVERSITY NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE WOMEN ON THE RISE WATER CHALLENGES
  • 13. 13 TRENDS
  • 14. www.trendwatching.com
  • 15. Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies Fonte: MGI.
  • 16. Weak Signals
  • 17. 17 Thinking the Unthinkable Wildcards
  • 18. 18 UNCERTAINTY
  • 19. TrendTaylo rs Scanning and Exploring Change
  • 20. Scanning and Exploring Change
  • 21. Scanning and Exploring Change
  • 22. Scanning and Exploring Change
  • 23. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries • Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries • Increasing migration streams • Demographic shifts
  • 24. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WORLD
  • 25. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EUROPE
  • 26. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SOUTH EUROPE
  • 27. 1. General Population: Sustainability of the Pensions System. 2. Active Population: Capability to anticipate and lead the new technological waves. 3. Older Population (+80): Strong pressure on the healthcare system (financial and human resources) 4. … 1 2 3 PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING
  • 28. PORTUGAL ECONOMIC PROFILE
  • 29. PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE (Mainly Public Offer/Services) (External demand) Globalization Budgetary Pressure Non-market services Goods and services little marketable internationally (Targeted to Domestic Demand) Goods and services that are the subject of intense International Trade / Competition • More “weight “ • Greater diversity • More Knowledge and Innovation Services Vs. Industries • More Competition • Lower “Rents” • Stronger link to the Economy and International Competition Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups + Global Activities and Functions (Logistics, air and maritime transport, “Space”, …)
  • 30. CITIES •MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS •THINK –ACT •ORGANIC •ECOSYSTEMS •MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION •LABS
  • 31. URBAN TRENDS 3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL MANUFACTURING (Fab Lab) ACTIVIST CITIZEN (Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..)) GENTRIFICATION CITY APPS/URBAN DATA (Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK) … NATURE OF WORK (Coworking; Incubation; Acceleration - ITC/Web/…) HACKING THE CITY (Fab Lab; Alt Lab) INTUITION COLLABORATIVE URBAN MAPPING (New startups exploring this) CROWDSOURCING CROWDFUNDING (Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform) Platform)… HAPPY CITY MAKER MOVEMENT (Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place” of the Internet of Things) BOTTOM-UP URBAN ENGAGMENT (Mouraria; …) CUSTOMIZATION + ON DEMAND SERVICES HYBRIDITY NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS (EVs; soft …) AGEING + INTERGENERATIONAL INTERACTION (Mentoring; Envlhecimento) DATA VISUALIZATION (Using Big Data  Trends/Insights) DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING (Participatory Budget) DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION OPEN-SOURCE (Open Data; OP) PARTICIPATORY URBANISM (OP  Startup Lisboa) WEARABLESNON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE (Urban/Street Art; LX Factory; Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …) RESPONSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE RETROFITTING INFRASTRUCTURE SMART CITY / SENSORS/ (Smart City Projects) RAPID PROTOTYPING (Fab Lab) TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Containers; Parks; …) ENERGY STORAGE + SMART GRIDS (SOLAR CITY) AUGENTED REALITY (AR) APPS SHARE CULTURE / SHARE ECONOMY STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A FAST CHANGING PACE (Lisbon Startup Ecosystem) SUSTAINABILITY (Mobility; Buildings; SOLAR CITY…) NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS (LX Factory; Village Underground; Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …) BIG DATA CLOUD COMPUTING
  • 32. 33 Crowdfunding Lisboa
  • 33. Thank You paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt