MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
Wait Ο
Respond/React Ο
Predict Ο
Anticipate Ο
Explore Ο
Imagine Ο
Design / Create Ο
Decide Ο
Act Ο
Other Ο
WHAT’S THE USE ...
Making Decisions in Turbulent and
Uncertain Environments
4
“The Long View”
5
Peripheral Vision
6Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
Sense Making
7Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
8
Multiple Perspectives
9
Global & Systemic
View
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
10
Creativity
and
Imagination
IDEO (from Wired)
11
MEGATRENDS
12
Megatrends
Global Forces
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS...
13
TRENDS
www.trendwatching.com
Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies
Fonte: MGI.
Weak Signals
17
Thinking the
Unthinkable
Wildcards
18
UNCERTAINTY
TrendTaylo rs
Scanning and Exploring Change
Scanning and Exploring Change
Scanning and Exploring Change
Scanning and Exploring Change
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some De...
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
WORLD
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
EUROPE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
SOUTH EUROPE
1. General Population:
Sustainability of the Pensions
System.
2. Active Population:
Capability to anticipate and lead
the ...
PORTUGAL
ECONOMIC
PROFILE
PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE
(Mainly Public Offer/Services)
(External demand)
Globalization
Budgetary Pressure
Non-market s...
CITIES
•MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS
•THINK –ACT
•ORGANIC
•ECOSYSTEMS
•MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION
•LABS
URBAN TRENDS
3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL
MANUFACTURING
(Fab Lab)
ACTIVIST CITIZEN
(Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..))
GENTRIFICA...
33
Crowdfunding
Lisboa
Thank You
paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt
MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE
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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

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Presentation at the "Creative Leaders Conference".
Lisbon, 27 June 2014.
http://creativeleadersconference.wordpress.com

Published in: Business, Technology, Education

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

  1. 1. MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
  2. 2. Wait Ο Respond/React Ο Predict Ο Anticipate Ο Explore Ο Imagine Ο Design / Create Ο Decide Ο Act Ο Other Ο WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?
  3. 3. Making Decisions in Turbulent and Uncertain Environments
  4. 4. 4 “The Long View”
  5. 5. 5 Peripheral Vision
  6. 6. 6Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006. Sense Making
  7. 7. 7Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
  8. 8. 8 Multiple Perspectives
  9. 9. 9 Global & Systemic View System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
  10. 10. 10 Creativity and Imagination IDEO (from Wired)
  11. 11. 11 MEGATRENDS
  12. 12. 12 Megatrends Global Forces DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS URBANISATION DIGITAL LIFESTYLE GLOBALISATION 2 . 0 CULTURAL DIVERSITY NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE WOMEN ON THE RISE WATER CHALLENGES
  13. 13. 13 TRENDS
  14. 14. www.trendwatching.com
  15. 15. Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies Fonte: MGI.
  16. 16. Weak Signals
  17. 17. 17 Thinking the Unthinkable Wildcards
  18. 18. 18 UNCERTAINTY
  19. 19. TrendTaylo rs Scanning and Exploring Change
  20. 20. Scanning and Exploring Change
  21. 21. Scanning and Exploring Change
  22. 22. Scanning and Exploring Change
  23. 23. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries • Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries • Increasing migration streams • Demographic shifts
  24. 24. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WORLD
  25. 25. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EUROPE
  26. 26. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SOUTH EUROPE
  27. 27. 1. General Population: Sustainability of the Pensions System. 2. Active Population: Capability to anticipate and lead the new technological waves. 3. Older Population (+80): Strong pressure on the healthcare system (financial and human resources) 4. … 1 2 3 PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING
  28. 28. PORTUGAL ECONOMIC PROFILE
  29. 29. PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE (Mainly Public Offer/Services) (External demand) Globalization Budgetary Pressure Non-market services Goods and services little marketable internationally (Targeted to Domestic Demand) Goods and services that are the subject of intense International Trade / Competition • More “weight “ • Greater diversity • More Knowledge and Innovation Services Vs. Industries • More Competition • Lower “Rents” • Stronger link to the Economy and International Competition Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups + Global Activities and Functions (Logistics, air and maritime transport, “Space”, …)
  30. 30. CITIES •MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS •THINK –ACT •ORGANIC •ECOSYSTEMS •MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION •LABS
  31. 31. URBAN TRENDS 3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL MANUFACTURING (Fab Lab) ACTIVIST CITIZEN (Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..)) GENTRIFICATION CITY APPS/URBAN DATA (Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK) … NATURE OF WORK (Coworking; Incubation; Acceleration - ITC/Web/…) HACKING THE CITY (Fab Lab; Alt Lab) INTUITION COLLABORATIVE URBAN MAPPING (New startups exploring this) CROWDSOURCING CROWDFUNDING (Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform) Platform)… HAPPY CITY MAKER MOVEMENT (Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place” of the Internet of Things) BOTTOM-UP URBAN ENGAGMENT (Mouraria; …) CUSTOMIZATION + ON DEMAND SERVICES HYBRIDITY NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS (EVs; soft …) AGEING + INTERGENERATIONAL INTERACTION (Mentoring; Envlhecimento) DATA VISUALIZATION (Using Big Data  Trends/Insights) DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING (Participatory Budget) DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION OPEN-SOURCE (Open Data; OP) PARTICIPATORY URBANISM (OP  Startup Lisboa) WEARABLESNON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE (Urban/Street Art; LX Factory; Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …) RESPONSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE RETROFITTING INFRASTRUCTURE SMART CITY / SENSORS/ (Smart City Projects) RAPID PROTOTYPING (Fab Lab) TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Containers; Parks; …) ENERGY STORAGE + SMART GRIDS (SOLAR CITY) AUGENTED REALITY (AR) APPS SHARE CULTURE / SHARE ECONOMY STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A FAST CHANGING PACE (Lisbon Startup Ecosystem) SUSTAINABILITY (Mobility; Buildings; SOLAR CITY…) NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS (LX Factory; Village Underground; Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …) BIG DATA CLOUD COMPUTING
  32. 32. 33 Crowdfunding Lisboa
  33. 33. Thank You paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt
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